Matt Swarmer prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Matt Swarmer P Gwinnett Stripers

Age 32 RHP 6'5" / 195 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 165 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 118

ERA5.03

FIP5.14

K%21.5%

BB%12.3%

K-BB%9.2%

ROS IP165

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 165 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6565

CTRL3030

CMD4545

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1090.5

Whiff%

p8831.3%

p5723.5%

xwOBA vs

p100.362

SL-3.4

FB-7.1

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	22	ROK MLE	AZL Cubs	8	5	19	81	23	9	0	62%	2.3	19.3%	13.9%	5.4%	0.0%	3.38	3.23	—
2016	22	ROK RAW	AZL Cubs	8	5	19	81	23	9	0	62%	2.3	28.4%	11.1%	17.3%	0.0%	3.38	2.08	—
2017	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	5	65	289	68	14	8	29%	3.8	17.2%	5.7%	11.4%	4.5%	5.82	4.83	—
2017	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	17	5	65	289	68	14	8	29%	3.8	23.5%	4.8%	18.7%	2.8%	5.82	3.25	—
2018	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	129	516	135	21	10	100%	5.4	20.7%	4.5%	16.2%	2.5%	3.22	3.29	—
2018	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	129	516	135	21	10	100%	5.4	26.2%	4.1%	22.1%	1.9%	3.22	2.50	—
2019	25	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	27	25	151	663	137	41	36	93%	5.6	18.2%	6.5%	11.7%	5.7%	5.65	5.51	—
2019	25	AAA RAW	Iowa Cubs	27	25	151	663	137	41	36	93%	5.6	20.7%	6.2%	14.5%	5.4%	5.65	5.19	—
2021	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	20	113	473	120	35	22	83%	4.7	21.9%	7.9%	14.0%	4.8%	4.79	4.87	—
2021	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	20	113	473	120	35	22	83%	4.7	25.4%	7.4%	18.0%	4.7%	4.79	4.44	—
2022	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	20	115	498	122	51	21	62%	3.6	22.4%	10.6%	11.9%	4.5%	4.21	5.01	-0.2
2022	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	20	115	498	122	51	21	62%	3.6	24.5%	10.2%	14.3%	4.2%	4.21	4.68	+0.3
2023	29	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	19	1	32	153	30	24	5	5%	1.7	16.9%	14.1%	2.7%	3.7%	8.07	5.47	—
2023	29	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	19	1	32	153	30	24	5	5%	1.7	16.9%	14.1%	2.7%	3.7%	8.07	5.47	—
2023	29	AAA RAW	Gwinnett Stripers	19	1	32	153	30	24	5	5%	1.7	19.6%	15.7%	3.9%	3.3%	8.07	5.48	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			11	5	34	153	36	19	12	45%	3.1	23.5%	12.4%	11.1%	7.8%	5.03	7.25	-1.0
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	32	MLB	ATL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.5%	12.3%	9.2%	3.5%	5.03	5.14	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	33	MLB MLE	ATL	24	24	151	639	132	79	24	100%	6.3	20.7%	12.3%	8.4%	3.7%	5.18	5.33	-0.7
2028	34	MLB MLE	ATL	22	22	138	582	116	73	23	100%	6.3	19.9%	12.5%	7.4%	4.0%	5.37	5.56	-1.0
2027	33	MLB CTX	ATL	9	9	56	236	49	29	9	100%	6.2	20.7%	12.3%	8.4%	3.7%	5.18	5.33	-0.3
2028	34	MLB CTX	ATL	7	7	44	186	37	23	7	100%	6.3	19.9%	12.5%	7.4%	4.0%	5.37	5.56	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		27	21	134	576	122	71	28	78%	5.0	21.2%	12.4%	8.8%	4.9%	5.20	5.57	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		40	31	200	859	182	106	42	78%	5.0	21.2%	12.4%	8.8%	4.9%	5.20	5.57	-1.5
Career	—	MLE		151	100	624	2673	534	206	114	66%	4.1	20.0%	7.7%	12.3%	4.3%	4.80	4.73	-2.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	32	200	857	171	66	37	66%	4.1	20.0%	7.7%	12.3%	4.3%	4.80	4.73	-1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Matt Swarmer (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.14	21.5%	12.3%	3.5%	—	5.44	20.3%	7.9%	289	+0.30	—	—	—
Kenshin Kawakami R 2009 · 3.97 FIP	34	SP-	3.97	15.7%	7.6%	2.2%	.277	4.06	15.1%	9.5%	87	+0.09	3.97	244	68
Nate Long R 2015 · 4.67 FIP	29	SP	4.67	14.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	151	63
Junior Guerra R 2017 · 5.24 FIP	32	SP-	5.24	19.4%	12.8%	3.9%	.255	3.99	22.2%	12.5%	248	-1.25	3.18	646	60
Yohan Pino R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	31	SP-	4.13	17.8%	5.8%	3.3%	.312	5.33	15.2%	11.6%	35	+1.20	3.84	193	58
Shawn Haviland R 2017 · 5.00 FIP	31	SP-	5.00	16.3%	8.1%	4.1%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	283	58
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	57
Pete Walker R 2002 · 4.59 FIP	33	SP-	4.59	13.4%	7.7%	3.0%	.279	5.16	12.0%	2.8%	139	+0.57	4.45	327	56
Hector Galvan R 2019 · 4.84 FIP	31	SP-	4.84	14.3%	12.2%	2.6%	.357	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	406	56
Patrick Johnson R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	30	SP	4.14	15.7%	9.3%	2.2%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	248	56
Jose Contreras R 2004 · 5.06 FIP	32	SP	5.06	19.8%	10.9%	4.1%	.273	4.06	15.8%	8.6%	590	-1.00	2.43	1,279	56
Hector Noesí R 2019 · 5.11 FIP	32	SP-	5.11	22.3%	7.2%	5.4%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	613	54
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	54
Cory Riordan R 2016 · 4.24 FIP	30	SP	4.24	14.3%	5.0%	3.1%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	4.24	154	54
Cody Mincey R 2022 · 5.56 FIP	30	SP	5.56	13.9%	8.4%	4.7%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	147	53
Matt Buschmann R 2016 · 4.84 FIP	32	SP	4.84	12.8%	8.4%	3.2%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.03	277	53
Tim Adleman R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	31	SP	4.30	22.8%	7.8%	3.9%	.266	4.71	18.5%	11.1%	90	+0.41	3.63	605	53
Daniel McCutchen R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	32	SP-	4.30	13.9%	4.4%	3.3%	.268	4.74	10.8%	4.9%	155	+0.44	4.13	476	52
Eddie Gamboa R 2017 · 5.65 FIP	32	SP	5.65	12.1%	11.0%	4.0%	.292	4.59	13.4%	5.8%	34	-1.06	2.92	385	51
Jason Berken R 2016 · 4.54 FIP	32	SW	4.54	11.5%	8.3%	2.5%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	468	51
Nestor Molina R 2019 · 4.27 FIP	30	SP	4.27	16.1%	7.4%	2.9%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	401	51

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 465 starter careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	122	20.9%	12.4%	1.55	5.17
Kevin Foster ('01)	2.5	127	18.9%	10.0%	1.55	4.86
Matt Beech ('98)	1.5	98	20.2%	10.0%	1.59	5.37
Jason Bere ('03)	5.6	123	18.4%	12.6%	1.17	5.14
John Maine ('13)	3.0	99	19.5%	10.5%	1.23	4.45
Robert Person ('03)	4.5	128	19.8%	11.2%	1.29	4.64
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	106	20.5%	9.7%	1.30	4.61