JT Brubaker
P
San Francisco Giants
Age 32
RHP
6'4" / 197 lbs
MLB
Svc 5.0 · Ctrl thru 2026
peak 0.6 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION47 act + 106 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116107vR 98
ERA4.07
FIP4.21
K%18.3%
BB%10.4%
K-BB%7.8%
ROS IP106
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 154 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p3093.1
Whiff%
p2021.1%
K%
p1817.6%
xwOBA vs
p350.329
CH+1.8 (12%)
FB+1.6 (55%)
SI (49%)
CU (7%)
SL-2.0 (26%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 26 | 130 | 560 | 120 | 46 | 15 | 100% | 5.0 | 16.1% | 9.6% | 6.5% | 3.0% | 4.44 | 4.58 | — |
| 2016 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 26 | 130 | 560 | 120 | 46 | 15 | 100% | 5.0 | 21.4% | 8.2% | 13.2% | 2.7% | 4.44 | 3.82 | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AA | Altoona Curve | 26 | 24 | 130 | 576 | 109 | 45 | 9 | 92% | 5.0 | 15.3% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 1.8% | 4.44 | 3.86 | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AA | Altoona Curve | 26 | 24 | 130 | 576 | 109 | 45 | 9 | 92% | 5.0 | 18.9% | 7.8% | 11.1% | 1.6% | 4.44 | 3.36 | — |
| 2018 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 28 | 154 | 647 | 131 | 44 | 8 | 100% | 5.5 | 17.4% | 7.2% | 10.2% | 1.4% | 2.81 | 3.29 | — |
| 2018 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 28 | 154 | 647 | 131 | 44 | 8 | 100% | 5.5 | 20.2% | 6.8% | 13.4% | 1.2% | 2.81 | 2.93 | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | 4 | 4 | 21 | 86 | 20 | 4 | 2 | 100% | 5.2 | 20.5% | 4.9% | 15.6% | 2.8% | 2.57 | 3.54 | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | 4 | 4 | 21 | 86 | 20 | 4 | 2 | 100% | 5.2 | 23.3% | 4.7% | 18.6% | 2.3% | 2.57 | 3.00 | — |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 11 | 9 | 47 | 205 | 48 | 17 | 6 | 82% | 4.3 | 23.4% | 8.3% | 15.1% | 3.0% | 4.94 | 3.80 | +0.4 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 11 | 9 | 47 | 205 | 48 | 17 | 6 | 82% | 4.3 | 23.4% | 8.3% | 15.1% | 2.9% | 4.94 | 3.80 | +0.4 |
| 2021 | 27 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 24 | 24 | 124 | 538 | 129 | 37 | 28 | 100% | 5.2 | 24.0% | 6.9% | 17.1% | 5.3% | 5.36 | 4.83 | +0.8 |
| 2021 | 27 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 24 | 24 | 124 | 538 | 129 | 37 | 28 | 100% | 5.2 | 24.0% | 6.9% | 17.1% | 5.2% | 5.36 | 4.85 | +0.8 |
| 2022 | 28 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 28 | 28 | 144 | 646 | 147 | 54 | 17 | 100% | 5.1 | 22.8% | 8.4% | 14.4% | 2.7% | 4.69 | 3.70 | +2.9 |
| 2022 | 28 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 28 | 28 | 144 | 646 | 147 | 54 | 17 | 100% | 5.1 | 22.8% | 8.4% | 14.4% | 2.6% | 4.69 | 3.72 | +2.8 |
| 2024 | 30 | MIX | 4 levels | 8 | 5 | 17 | 64 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 62% | 2.1 | 14.1% | 12.5% | 1.6% | 3.1% | 2.70 | 5.21 | — |
| 2024 | 30 | MIX | 4 levels | 8 | 5 | 17 | 64 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 62% | 2.1 | 14.1% | 12.5% | 1.6% | 3.1% | 2.70 | 5.02 | — |
| 2025 | 31 | MIX | 4 levels | 26 | 9 | 61 | 242 | 46 | 25 | 3 | 35% | 2.3 | 18.2% | 10.8% | 7.4% | 1.8% | 3.10 | 3.93 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 31 | MIX | 4 levels | 26 | 9 | 61 | 242 | 46 | 25 | 3 | 35% | 2.3 | 19.0% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 1.2% | 3.10 | 3.46 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 30 | 0 | 47 | 187 | 33 | 20 | 4 | 0% | 1.6 | 17.6% | 10.7% | 7.0% | 2.1% | 2.87 | 4.14 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | SF | 101 | 0 | 106 | 450 | 82 | 47 | 11 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.3% | 10.4% | 7.8% | 2.4% | 4.07 | 4.21 | +1.5 |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | SF | 101 | 0 | 106 | 448 | 82 | 47 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.3% | 10.4% | 7.8% | 2.3% | 4.02 | 4.16 | +1.5 |
| 2026 TOT | 32 | MLB | SF | — | — | 154 | 637 | 115 | 67 | 15 | — | — | 18.1% | 10.5% | 7.6% | 2.3% | 3.70 | 4.19 | +2.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 32 | MLB | SF | — | — | 154 | 648 | 115 | 67 | 14 | — | — | 17.8% | 10.3% | 7.4% | 2.2% | 3.67 | 4.13 | +2.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | SF | 23 | 23 | 141 | 594 | 104 | 65 | 16 | 100% | 6.1 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 6.7% | 2.7% | 4.69 | 4.86 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | SF | 21 | 21 | 128 | 541 | 90 | 62 | 16 | 100% | 6.1 | 16.6% | 11.4% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 4.98 | 5.17 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | SF | 19 | 19 | 115 | 486 | 76 | 58 | 16 | 100% | 6.1 | 15.7% | 11.9% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 5.29 | 5.50 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | SF | 23 | 23 | 141 | 595 | 104 | 65 | 15 | 100% | 6.1 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 6.7% | 2.6% | 4.63 | 4.80 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | SF | 21 | 21 | 128 | 540 | 90 | 62 | 16 | 100% | 6.1 | 16.6% | 11.4% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 4.91 | 5.10 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | SF | 19 | 19 | 115 | 486 | 76 | 58 | 16 | 100% | 6.1 | 15.7% | 11.9% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 5.22 | 5.43 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 275 | 125 | 882 | 3764 | 731 | 370 | 112 | 45% | 3.2 | 19.4% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 3.0% | 4.68 | 4.34 | +10.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 62 | 28 | 200 | 854 | 166 | 84 | 25 | 46% | 3.2 | 19.4% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 3.0% | 4.68 | 4.34 | +2.5 | ||
| Career | — | 211 | 157 | 875 | 3751 | 719 | 316 | 100 | 74% | 4.1 | 19.2% | 8.4% | 10.7% | 2.7% | 4.10 | 4.01 | +14.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 36 | 200 | 858 | 164 | 72 | 23 | 74% | 4.1 | 19.2% | 8.4% | 10.7% | 2.7% | 4.10 | 4.01 | +3.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| JT Brubaker (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.59 | 18.9% | 10.3% | 2.5% | — | 5.16 | 16.7% | 5.3% | 384 | +0.57 | — | — | — |
| Elian Leyva R 2024 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.0% | 8.5% | 2.9% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 158 | 75 |
| Marco Quevedo R 2026 · 5.40 FIP | 32 | SP- | 5.40 | 13.6% | 11.4% | 3.6% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 300 | 72 |
| Mitch Lively R 2025 · 3.49 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.49 | 17.0% | 6.4% | 1.8% | .304 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 158 | 67 |
| Juan Omar Espinoza R 2026 · 4.95 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.95 | 8.4% | 9.2% | 2.5% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.68 | 104 | 67 |
| Zack Segovia R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.00 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .314 | 3.41 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.59 | 3.41 | 144 | 66 |
| Lucas Harrell R 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.64 | 16.2% | 10.5% | 1.1% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.64 | 139 | 64 |
| Garrett Richards R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.23 | 21.6% | 8.0% | 3.5% | .280 | 4.13 | 18.8% | 9.8% | 179 | -0.10 | 2.34 | 577 | 64 |
| Roberto Hernandez R 2028 · 4.26 FIP | 34 | SP- | 4.26 | 11.8% | 6.7% | 2.4% | .287 | 4.22 | 13.8% | 6.8% | 86 | -0.04 | 4.22 | 171 | 64 |
| Reinier Roibal R 2024 · 4.86 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.86 | 17.5% | 11.8% | 3.2% | .426 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.07 | 133 | 63 |
| Yohan Pino R 2025 · 3.95 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.95 | 17.8% | 5.8% | 2.9% | .312 | 5.48 | 15.2% | 11.6% | 35 | +1.53 | 3.95 | 133 | 63 |
| Miguel Ruiz R 2025 · 5.44 FIP | 31 | SP | 5.44 | 10.6% | 11.0% | 3.4% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.44 | 117 | 63 |
| Jason Berken R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.31 | 11.5% | 8.3% | 2.1% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 219 | 62 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2026 · 5.15 FIP | 32 | SP- | 5.15 | 15.7% | 10.1% | 3.8% | .312 | 5.23 | 17.5% | 7.7% | 369 | +0.08 | 3.69 | 521 | 62 |
| Josh Lindblom R 2027 · 3.66 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.66 | 27.2% | 8.4% | 3.3% | .308 | 4.62 | 21.7% | 13.8% | 255 | +0.96 | 3.66 | 348 | 62 |
| Jair Jurrjens R 2025 · 4.29 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.29 | 16.3% | 7.9% | 2.8% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.29 | 125 | 61 |
| Josh Zeid R 2024 · 5.41 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.41 | 18.3% | 10.8% | 4.5% | .334 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 265 | 61 |
| Jeremy Hellickson R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.93 | 17.8% | 8.5% | 4.1% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 646 | 60 |
| Hector Galvan R 2025 · 4.64 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.64 | 14.3% | 12.2% | 2.2% | .357 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 406 | 60 |
| Jesus Adrian Castillo R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.78 | 12.8% | 6.0% | 1.8% | .245 | 4.06 | 13.6% | 7.2% | 58 | +0.28 | 2.23 | 173 | 60 |
| Casey Coleman R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 32 | SW | 5.00 | 18.4% | 9.0% | 4.2% | .319 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.86 | 306 | 60 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 134 | 17.3% | 11.1% | 1.11 | 4.82 |
| Yovani Gallardo ('18) | 4 | 132 | 15.4% | 10.2% | 1.18 | 4.97 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |
| Andrew Cashner ('19) | 5 | 157 | 16.7% | 9.2% | 1.11 | 4.54 |
| Chris Tillman ('18) | 4 | 116 | 16.5% | 9.7% | 1.34 | 5.42 |
| Edinson Volquez ('17) | 3 | 161 | 17.9% | 9.6% | 0.88 | 4.39 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |