JT Brubaker — OGILVIE

JT Brubaker P San Francisco Giants

Age 32 RHP 6'4" / 197 lbs MLB Svc 5.0 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 0.5 · 2026 ILInjured 10-Day (D10)

2026 ROS PROJECTION60 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.18

FIP4.30

K%16.9%

BB%10.0%

K-BB%6.8%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 66 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5555

CTRL5050

CMD5055

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3293.2

Whiff%

p1920.9%

p1015.6%

xwOBA vs

p250.341

CH+1.8 (14%)

FB+1.6 (51%)

SI (45%)

CU (9%)

SL-2.0 (26%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2020

Service 5.942 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.0	$0.1M	-$0.1M
Totals		$0.1M		$0.1M	-$0.1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	130	560	120	46	15	100%	5.0	16.1%	9.6%	6.5%	3.2%	4.44	4.70	—
2016	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	130	560	120	46	15	100%	5.0	21.4%	8.2%	13.2%	2.7%	4.44	3.82	—
2017	23	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	26	24	130	576	109	45	9	92%	5.0	15.3%	8.6%	6.7%	1.8%	4.44	3.89	—
2017	23	AA RAW	Altoona Curve	26	24	130	576	109	45	9	92%	5.0	18.9%	7.8%	11.1%	1.6%	4.44	3.36	—
2018	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	154	647	131	44	8	100%	5.5	17.4%	7.2%	10.2%	1.4%	2.81	3.29	—
2018	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	28	154	647	131	44	8	100%	5.5	20.2%	6.8%	13.4%	1.2%	2.81	2.93	—
2019	25	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	4	4	21	86	20	4	2	100%	5.2	20.5%	4.9%	15.6%	2.7%	2.57	3.46	—
2019	25	AAA RAW	Indianapolis Indians	4	4	21	86	20	4	2	100%	5.2	23.3%	4.7%	18.6%	2.3%	2.57	3.00	—
2020	26	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	11	9	47	205	48	17	6	82%	4.3	23.4%	8.3%	15.1%	3.2%	4.94	3.91	+0.6
2020	26	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	11	9	47	205	48	17	6	82%	4.3	23.4%	8.3%	15.1%	2.9%	4.94	3.80	+0.6
2021	27	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	24	24	124	538	129	37	28	100%	5.2	24.0%	6.9%	17.1%	5.6%	5.36	5.03	-0.2
2021	27	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	24	24	124	538	129	37	28	100%	5.2	24.0%	6.9%	17.1%	5.2%	5.36	4.85	+0.1
2022	28	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	28	28	144	646	147	54	17	100%	5.1	22.8%	8.4%	14.4%	2.8%	4.69	3.80	+1.9
2022	28	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	28	28	144	646	147	54	17	100%	5.1	22.8%	8.4%	14.4%	2.6%	4.69	3.72	+2.1
2024	30	MIX MLE	4 levels	8	5	17	64	9	8	2	62%	2.1	14.1%	12.5%	1.6%	3.1%	2.70	5.21	—
2024	30	MIX MLE	4 levels	8	5	17	64	9	8	2	62%	2.1	14.1%	12.5%	1.6%	3.1%	2.70	5.21	—
2024	30	MIX RAW	4 levels	8	5	17	64	9	8	2	62%	2.1	14.1%	12.5%	1.6%	3.1%	2.70	5.02	—
2025	31	MIX MLE	4 levels	26	9	61	242	46	25	3	35%	2.3	17.8%	10.0%	7.7%	1.7%	3.10	3.80	+0.5
2025	31	MIX MLE	4 levels	26	9	61	242	46	25	3	35%	2.3	17.8%	10.0%	7.7%	1.7%	3.10	3.80	+0.5
2025	31	MIX RAW	4 levels	26	9	61	242	46	25	3	35%	2.3	19.0%	10.3%	8.7%	1.2%	3.10	3.46	+0.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			121	63	405	1756	385	145	56	52%	3.3	21.9%	8.3%	13.7%	3.2%	4.69	4.07	+4.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	32	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	41	1	60	250	39	26	5	2%	1.5	15.6%	10.4%	5.2%	2.2%	3.58	4.29	+0.2
YTD	32	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	41	1	60	250	39	26	5	2%	1.5	15.6%	10.4%	5.2%	2.2%	3.58	4.29	+0.2
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	32	MLB RAW	SF	41	1	60	250	39	26	5	2%	1.5	15.6%	10.4%	5.2%	2.0%	3.58	4.20	+0.3
SO FAR	32	MLB RAW	SF	41	1	60	250	39	26	5	2%	1.5	15.6%	10.4%	5.2%	2.0%	3.58	4.20	+0.3
ROS	32	MLB MLE	SF	6	0	6	25	4	2	1	0%	1.0	16.9%	10.0%	6.8%	2.5%	4.18	4.30	+0.0
ROS	32	MLB CTX	SF	6	0	6	25	4	3	1	0%	1.0	16.9%	10.0%	6.8%	2.3%	4.08	4.20	+0.0
2026 TOT	32	MLB MLE	SF	—	—	66	275	43	28	6	—	—	15.7%	10.4%	5.3%	2.0%	3.63	4.29	+0.2
FULL	32	MLB A+C	SF	—	—	66	279	43	28	6	—	—	15.4%	10.2%	5.3%	2.0%	3.62	4.18	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	33	MLB MLE	SF	23	23	141	594	97	62	16	100%	6.1	16.3%	10.5%	5.9%	2.6%	4.70	4.86	+0.1
2028	34	MLB MLE	SF	21	21	128	541	84	59	16	100%	6.1	15.4%	11.0%	4.5%	2.9%	4.98	5.16	-0.4
2027	33	MLB CTX	SF	23	23	141	595	97	62	14	100%	6.1	16.3%	10.5%	5.9%	2.4%	4.59	4.75	+0.1
2028	34	MLB CTX	SF	21	21	128	540	83	59	15	100%	6.1	15.4%	11.0%	4.5%	2.7%	4.86	5.04	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		170	107	679	2916	570	269	85	63%	4.0	19.5%	9.2%	10.3%	2.9%	4.70	4.23	+5.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		50	31	200	858	168	79	25	63%	4.0	19.5%	9.2%	10.3%	2.9%	4.70	4.23	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		222	158	888	3814	724	320	106	71%	4.0	19.0%	8.4%	10.6%	2.8%	4.12	4.09	+3.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	36	200	859	163	72	24	71%	4.0	19.0%	8.4%	10.6%	2.8%	4.12	4.09	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
JT Brubaker (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.53	18.5%	9.8%	2.5%	—	5.00	15.9%	5.2%	269	+0.47	—	—	—
Marco Quevedo R 2019 · 5.17 FIP	32	SP-	5.17	13.6%	11.4%	3.2%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	300	75
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	74
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2016 · 4.84 FIP	32	SP-	4.84	8.4%	9.2%	2.4%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	4.81	104	71
Mitch Lively R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	31	SP-	3.47	17.0%	6.4%	1.8%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	2.39	158	68
Roberto Hernandez R 2015 · 4.38 FIP	34	SP-	4.38	11.8%	6.7%	2.6%	.287	4.38	13.8%	6.8%	86	+0.00	4.38	171	65
Jason Berken R 2016 · 4.54 FIP	32	SW	4.54	11.5%	8.3%	2.5%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	4.34	219	65
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	64
Tim Dillard R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	32	SW	3.58	15.9%	7.7%	1.5%	.330	3.85	16.7%	8.1%	144	+0.27	3.13	352	63
Marco Antonio Duarte R 2019 · 5.03 FIP	32	SW	5.03	12.2%	9.1%	3.3%	.420	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	203	63
Bradin Hagens R 2019 · 5.46 FIP	30	SW	5.46	13.2%	12.6%	3.4%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	254	62
Josh Zeid R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	30	SW	5.35	18.3%	10.8%	4.4%	.334	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	265	62
Edwin Jackson R 2016 · 5.00 FIP	32	SP-	5.00	15.7%	10.1%	3.5%	.312	5.18	17.5%	7.7%	369	+0.18	3.77	521	62
Garrett Richards R 2020 · 4.05 FIP	32	SP-	4.05	21.6%	8.0%	3.2%	.280	4.16	18.8%	9.8%	179	+0.11	2.31	577	62
Lucas Harrell R 2017 · 3.57 FIP	32	SP	3.57	16.2%	10.5%	0.9%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	3.57	139	62
Miguel Ruiz R 2017 · 5.60 FIP	31	SP	5.60	10.6%	11.0%	3.6%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	5.60	117	62
Yohan Pino R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	31	SP-	4.13	17.8%	5.8%	3.3%	.312	5.33	15.2%	11.6%	35	+1.20	4.13	133	61
Sam LeCure R 2016 · 4.17 FIP	32	SW	4.17	16.6%	6.5%	3.0%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	4.17	171	61
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2017 · 5.03 FIP	32	SW	5.03	14.0%	6.6%	4.2%	.268	5.28	17.5%	9.7%	166	+0.25	3.97	567	61
Casey Coleman R 2019 · 5.06 FIP	32	SW	5.06	18.4%	9.0%	4.3%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	2.95	306	61
Reinier Roibal R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	30	SP	4.91	17.5%	11.8%	3.3%	.426	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	133	60

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	138	16.8%	10.4%	1.03	4.68
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Ian Anderson ('22)	1.4	91	22.5%	10.4%	0.96	3.97
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32