JT Brubaker
P
San Francisco Giants
+0.3
WAR
Age 32
RHP
6'4" / 197 lbs
MLB
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.11
FIP4.33
xFIP5.31
SIERA5.52
K%20.6%
BB%10.0%
K-BB%10.6%
IP47
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
K†5050
CH+1.8 (10%)
FB+1.6 (52%)
SI (47%)
CU (8%)
SL-2.0 (30%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 22 | A+ | Bradenton Marauders | 26 | 26 | 130 | 560 | 120 | 46 | 15 | 16.1% | 9.6% | 3.1% | 4.44 | 4.68 | +0.9 |
| 2017 | 23 | AA | Altoona Curve | 26 | 24 | 130 | 576 | 109 | 45 | 9 | 15.3% | 8.6% | 1.8% | 4.44 | 3.88 | +2.1 |
| 2018 | 24 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | 28 | 28 | 154 | 647 | 131 | 44 | 8 | 17.4% | 7.2% | 1.4% | 2.81 | 3.29 | +3.5 |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | 4 | 4 | 21 | 86 | 20 | 4 | 2 | 20.5% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 2.57 | 3.48 | +0.4 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 11 | 9 | 47 | 205 | 48 | 17 | 6 | 23.4% | 8.3% | 3.4% | 4.94 | 4.01 | +0.5 |
| 2021 | 27 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 24 | 24 | 124 | 538 | 129 | 37 | 28 | 24.0% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 5.36 | 4.84 | +0.6 |
| 2022 | 28 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 28 | 28 | 144 | 646 | 147 | 54 | 17 | 22.8% | 8.4% | 2.8% | 4.69 | 3.79 | +2.5 |
| 2024 | 30 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 8 | 5 | 17 | 64 | 9 | 8 | 2 | — | — | — | 2.70 | — | — |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 26 | 9 | 61 | 242 | 46 | 25 | 3 | 18.2% | 10.8% | 1.7% | 3.10 | 3.85 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 8 | 0 | 10 | 45 | 8 | 8 | 1 | — | — | — | 2.61 | — | — |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | PIT | 33 | — | 33 | 141 | 28 | 14 | 4 | 20.1% | 10.0% | 2.5% | 4.14 | 4.42 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 32 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 44 | 186 | 36 | 22 | 5 | 19.5% | 11.9% | 2.4% | 3.78 | 3.37 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | PIT | 39 | — | 39 | 164 | 31 | 18 | 4 | 19.0% | 11.0% | 2.6% | 4.52 | 4.68 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | PIT | 34 | — | 34 | 145 | 27 | 16 | 4 | 18.3% | 11.2% | 2.7% | 4.70 | 4.82 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | PIT | 30 | — | 30 | 127 | 22 | 15 | 4 | 17.6% | 11.5% | 2.8% | 4.86 | 4.97 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 36 | MLB | PIT | 26 | — | 26 | 111 | 19 | 13 | 3 | 16.8% | 11.7% | 2.9% | 5.03 | 5.14 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 189 | 157 | 838 | 3609 | 694 | 304 | 100 | 19.2% | 8.4% | 2.8% | 4.15 | 4.06 | +11.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 45 | 37 | 200 | 861 | 166 | 73 | 24 | 19.2% | 8.4% | 2.8% | 4.15 | 4.06 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| JT Brubaker (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.42 | 20.1% | 10.0% | 2.5% | — | 4.81 | 18.3% | 7.1% | 103 | +0.39 | — | — | — |
| Miguel Mejia R 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.33 | 15.7% | 10.7% | 2.2% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 108 | 82 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2028 · 4.50 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.50 | 13.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .347 | 3.82 | 14.0% | 6.5% | 79 | -0.68 | 3.32 | 119 | 81 |
| Logan Kensing R 2027 · 3.61 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.61 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.55 | 2.72 | 172 | 81 |
| Zack Segovia R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.5% | .314 | 3.37 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.44 | 3.37 | 144 | 80 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.63 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 1.8% | .331 | 6.11 | 17.9% | 3.7% | 41 | +2.48 | 3.45 | 170 | 78 |
| Bryan Morris R 2024 · 3.68 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.68 | 16.0% | 9.6% | 1.3% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 102 | 78 |
| Jason Urquidez R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.58 | 15.6% | 9.3% | 1.1% | .386 | 1.79 | 25.5% | 20.7% | 90 | -1.79 | 1.25 | 123 | 77 |
| Jean Machi R 2027 · 4.63 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.63 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .276 | 4.24 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.39 | 4.11 | 186 | 77 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 77 |
| Manny Acosta R 2029 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.09 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.07 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -1.02 | 3.07 | 102 | 77 |
| Ryan Kelly R 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.31 | 14.7% | 7.2% | 2.8% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.49 | 131 | 77 |
| Bobby Parnell R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.55 | 15.2% | 11.3% | 0.6% | .367 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 102 | 76 |
| Angel Castro R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.53 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.2% | .268 | 4.27 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.26 | 3.50 | 292 | 76 |
| A.J. Schugel R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.81 | 16.6% | 12.3% | 2.8% | .351 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.85 | 299 | 75 |
| Tim Dillard R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.60 | 15.9% | 7.7% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.87 | 16.7% | 8.1% | 144 | +0.27 | 3.12 | 352 | 75 |
| J.D. Martin R 2027 · 4.85 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.85 | 9.4% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .302 | 5.41 | 12.2% | -0.2% | 249 | +0.56 | 4.85 | 289 | 75 |
| Logan Duran R 2027 · 3.41 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.41 | 15.8% | 10.0% | 0.7% | .287 | 3.76 | 15.3% | 6.4% | 95 | +0.35 | 3.41 | 187 | 74 |
| Ronald Belisario R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.71 | 11.8% | 6.3% | 1.5% | .254 | 2.10 | 18.4% | 14.0% | 48 | -1.61 | 2.10 | 126 | 74 |
| Ivan Maldonado R 2029 · 4.63 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.63 | 12.8% | 8.7% | 2.8% | .269 | 5.47 | 6.4% | -3.3% | 104 | +0.84 | 4.63 | 172 | 74 |
| André Rienzo R 2025 · 5.33 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.33 | 17.9% | 11.8% | 4.1% | .337 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 200 | 74 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.