Tyler Jay
P
Nashville Sounds
Age 32
LHP
6'0" / 191 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 103112vR 122
ERA4.52
FIP4.52
K%18.0%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%8.8%
ROS IP20
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
SL (18%)
FB (60%)
SI (52%)
CT-1.1 (22%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 21 | A+ | Fort Myers Miracle | 19 | 0 | 18 | 81 | 22 | 8 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.9% | 11.4% | 9.6% | 0.0% | 3.93 | 2.77 | — |
| 2015 | 21 | A+ | Fort Myers Miracle | 19 | 0 | 18 | 81 | 22 | 8 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.2% | 9.9% | 17.3% | 0.0% | 3.93 | 2.01 | — |
| 2016 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 15 | 84 | 346 | 77 | 26 | 7 | 83% | 4.6 | 17.2% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 2.8% | 3.33 | 4.27 | — |
| 2016 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 15 | 84 | 346 | 77 | 26 | 7 | 83% | 4.6 | 22.3% | 7.5% | 14.7% | 2.0% | 3.33 | 3.28 | — |
| 2017 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 8 | 1 | 12 | 51 | 19 | 4 | 2 | 12% | 1.5 | 37.3% | 7.8% | 29.4% | 3.9% | 3.09 | 3.10 | — |
| 2017 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 8 | 1 | 12 | 51 | 19 | 4 | 2 | 12% | 1.5 | 37.3% | 7.8% | 29.4% | 3.9% | 3.09 | 3.10 | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 38 | 2 | 60 | 269 | 49 | 19 | 7 | 5% | 1.6 | 14.8% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 3.3% | 4.22 | 4.64 | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 38 | 2 | 60 | 269 | 49 | 19 | 7 | 5% | 1.6 | 18.2% | 7.1% | 11.2% | 2.6% | 4.22 | 3.94 | — |
| 2019 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 1 | 63 | 288 | 65 | 29 | 2 | 3% | 1.7 | 17.4% | 11.4% | 6.0% | 0.9% | 4.02 | 3.57 | — |
| 2019 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 1 | 63 | 288 | 65 | 29 | 2 | 3% | 1.7 | 22.6% | 10.1% | 12.5% | 0.7% | 4.02 | 2.83 | — |
| 2023 | 29 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | 6 | 0 | 6 | 27 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.6% | 0.0% | 29.6% | 3.7% | 6.00 | 2.63 | — |
| 2023 | 29 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | 6 | 0 | 6 | 27 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.6% | 0.0% | 29.6% | 3.7% | 6.00 | 2.60 | — |
| 2024 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 1 | 64 | 271 | 55 | 18 | 4 | 2% | 1.6 | 18.3% | 5.4% | 13.0% | 2.3% | 3.22 | 3.49 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 1 | 64 | 271 | 55 | 18 | 4 | 2% | 1.6 | 20.3% | 6.6% | 13.7% | 1.5% | 3.22 | 3.04 | +1.2 |
| 2025 | 31 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | 28 | 0 | 27 | 113 | 21 | 14 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.4% | 13.0% | 3.3% | 0.8% | 3.33 | 3.80 | — |
| 2025 | 31 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | 28 | 0 | 27 | 113 | 21 | 14 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.6% | 12.4% | 6.2% | 0.9% | 3.33 | 3.58 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | MIL | 19 | 0 | 20 | 85 | 15 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.0% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 2.5% | 4.52 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | MIL | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 15 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.0% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 2.9% | 4.65 | 4.75 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | MIL | 7 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.0% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 2.9% | 4.65 | 4.75 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 12 | 0 | 15 | 67 | 12 | 9 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 17.3% | 13.4% | 3.9% | 1.3% | 4.67 | 4.06 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 160 | 0 | 200 | 893 | 160 | 120 | 13 | 0% | 1.3 | 17.3% | 13.4% | 3.9% | 1.3% | 4.67 | 4.06 | +3.1 | ||
| Career | — | 195 | 20 | 333 | 1446 | 262 | 126 | 31 | 10% | 1.7 | 18.1% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 2.2% | 3.67 | 3.86 | +6.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 117 | 12 | 200 | 868 | 157 | 76 | 19 | 10% | 1.7 | 18.1% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 2.2% | 3.67 | 3.86 | +3.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tyler Jay (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.52 | 18.0% | 9.2% | 2.5% | — | 4.75 | 18.0% | 8.4% | 20 | +0.23 | — | — | — |
| Phil Coke L 2027 · 4.00 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.00 | 18.8% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .373 | 3.04 | 18.0% | 11.3% | 70 | -0.96 | 3.04 | 101 | 74 |
| Fernando Abad L 2025 · 3.48 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.48 | 20.3% | 7.1% | 2.2% | .281 | 2.35 | 23.3% | 21.0% | 44 | -1.13 | 2.35 | 306 | 72 |
| Sam Freeman L 2026 · 5.70 FIP | 32 | SU | 5.70 | 16.8% | 11.3% | 4.7% | .380 | 4.02 | 18.5% | 5.4% | 36 | -1.68 | 3.03 | 299 | 71 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2025 · 4.29 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.29 | 18.6% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 124 | 71 |
| Dan Runzler L 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.45 | 17.5% | 11.0% | 2.6% | .325 | 4.79 | 16.0% | 3.0% | 27 | +0.34 | 3.77 | 127 | 70 |
| Zach Phillips L 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.65 | 19.1% | 8.5% | 2.0% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.29 | 202 | 70 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2024 · 4.48 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.48 | 23.7% | 11.1% | 3.6% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 172 | 69 |
| Dana Eveland L 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.83 | 17.2% | 9.7% | 1.7% | .272 | 4.91 | 14.7% | 10.0% | 21 | +1.08 | 2.42 | 129 | 69 |
| Tony Watson L 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.92 | 18.2% | 4.5% | 3.3% | .292 | 3.40 | 22.8% | 18.4% | 138 | -0.52 | 2.22 | 405 | 69 |
| Dan Jennings L 2025 · 3.99 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.99 | 16.6% | 8.1% | 2.3% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.09 | 244 | 68 |
| Jeremy Bleich L 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.51 | 20.1% | 7.0% | 4.0% | .360 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.21 | 241 | 67 |
| Colt Hynes L 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.52 | 14.1% | 4.6% | 1.9% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.44 | 152 | 66 |
| Brian Duensing L 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.46 | 11.5% | 8.1% | 2.4% | .252 | 3.70 | 20.2% | 11.8% | 137 | -0.76 | 2.59 | 198 | 66 |
| Craig Breslow L 2028 · 4.86 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.86 | 16.4% | 6.4% | 4.2% | .279 | 4.51 | 16.2% | 6.5% | 94 | -0.35 | 4.22 | 159 | 66 |
| Robbie Ross Jr. L 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.87 | 15.2% | 7.0% | 4.0% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.79 | 159 | 65 |
| Marlon Arias L 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.89 | 17.2% | 7.7% | 2.3% | .443 | 5.09 | 19.8% | 8.6% | 74 | +1.20 | 3.89 | 154 | 65 |
| Buddy Boshers L 2025 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.73 | 25.3% | 10.4% | 2.6% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.81 | 223 | 64 |
| Ryan O'Rourke L 2025 · 4.13 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.13 | 22.1% | 14.3% | 2.0% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 145 | 63 |
| Vidal Nuño L 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.21 | 20.2% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .376 | 4.85 | 16.0% | 11.1% | 53 | +0.64 | 4.07 | 424 | 63 |
| Mike Dunn L 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.05 | 25.9% | 12.7% | 2.8% | .276 | 4.90 | 17.3% | 2.6% | 35 | +0.85 | 3.72 | 181 | 62 |