Tyler Jay
P
Nashville Sounds
+0.2
WAR
Age 32
LHP
6'0" / 191 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA4.31
FIP4.31
xFIP5.13
SIERA5.26
K%20.3%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%11.1%
IP29
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
K†5050
SL (18%)
FB (60%)
SI (52%)
CT-1.1 (22%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 21 | A+ | Fort Myers Miracle | 19 | 0 | 18 | 81 | 22 | 8 | 0 | 20.9% | 11.4% | 0.0% | 3.93 | 2.77 | +0.5 |
| 2016 | 22 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 18 | 15 | 84 | 346 | 77 | 26 | 7 | 17.2% | 8.6% | 2.6% | 3.33 | 4.14 | +1.0 |
| 2017 | 23 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 8 | 1 | 12 | 51 | 19 | 4 | 2 | — | — | — | 3.09 | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 38 | 2 | 60 | 269 | 49 | 19 | 7 | 14.8% | 7.8% | 3.2% | 4.22 | 4.58 | +0.2 |
| 2019 | 25 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 37 | 1 | 63 | 288 | 65 | 29 | 2 | 17.4% | 11.4% | 0.9% | 4.02 | 3.56 | +1.0 |
| 2023 | 29 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | 6 | 0 | 6 | 27 | 8 | 0 | 1 | — | — | — | 6.00 | — | — |
| 2024 | 30 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 41 | 1 | 64 | 271 | 55 | 18 | 4 | 18.3% | 5.4% | 2.0% | 3.22 | 3.33 | +1.2 |
| 2025 | 31 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | 28 | 0 | 27 | 113 | 21 | 14 | 1 | 16.4% | 13.0% | 0.9% | 3.33 | 3.86 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | MIL | 29 | — | 29 | 121 | 25 | 11 | 3 | 20.3% | 9.2% | 2.5% | 4.31 | 4.31 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | MIL | 27 | — | 27 | 116 | 23 | 11 | 3 | 20.3% | 9.3% | 2.7% | 4.37 | 4.40 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 195 | 20 | 333 | 1446 | 262 | 126 | 29 | 18.1% | 8.7% | 2.0% | 3.67 | 3.79 | +5.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 117 | 12 | 200 | 868 | 157 | 76 | 17 | 18.1% | 8.7% | 2.0% | 3.67 | 3.79 | +3.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tyler Jay (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.31 | 20.3% | 9.2% | 2.5% | — | 4.40 | 20.3% | 11.0% | 27 | +0.09 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Abad L 2025 · 3.68 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.68 | 20.3% | 7.1% | 2.5% | .281 | 2.38 | 23.3% | 21.0% | 44 | -1.30 | 2.38 | 306 | 77 |
| Phil Coke L 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.85 | 18.8% | 9.1% | 2.1% | .373 | 3.04 | 18.0% | 11.3% | 70 | -0.81 | 3.04 | 101 | 76 |
| Zach Phillips L 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.67 | 19.1% | 8.5% | 2.0% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.34 | 202 | 74 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2025 · 4.27 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.27 | 18.6% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 124 | 73 |
| Francisley Bueno L 2028 · 3.78 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.78 | 14.8% | 7.1% | 1.9% | .315 | 3.99 | 13.3% | 6.6% | 110 | +0.21 | 3.51 | 138 | 73 |
| Tony Watson L 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.90 | 18.2% | 4.5% | 3.2% | .292 | 3.35 | 22.8% | 18.4% | 138 | -0.55 | 2.22 | 405 | 71 |
| Dan Runzler L 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.14 | 17.5% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .325 | 4.83 | 16.0% | 3.0% | 27 | +0.69 | 3.78 | 127 | 71 |
| Brandon Mann L 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.73 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 4.1% | .320 | 3.99 | 19.0% | 7.6% | 128 | -0.74 | 3.59 | 190 | 71 |
| Nick Ramirez L 2026 · 3.15 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.15 | 20.8% | 6.6% | 1.8% | .294 | 3.23 | 16.5% | 10.7% | 113 | +0.08 | 2.93 | 478 | 70 |
| Jeremy Bleich L 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.42 | 20.1% | 7.0% | 3.9% | .360 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.20 | 241 | 69 |
| Dan Jennings L 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 16.6% | 8.1% | 2.1% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 244 | 68 |
| Buddy Boshers L 2025 · 3.70 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.70 | 25.3% | 10.4% | 2.6% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.83 | 223 | 68 |
| Luke Westphal L 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.68 | 22.7% | 13.1% | 3.4% | .321 | 4.72 | 22.0% | 7.0% | 95 | +0.04 | 2.97 | 294 | 68 |
| Franklin Morales L 2025 · 4.03 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.03 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 2.2% | .267 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 101 | 68 |
| Dana Eveland L 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.79 | 17.2% | 9.7% | 1.7% | .272 | 4.68 | 14.7% | 10.0% | 21 | +0.89 | 2.42 | 129 | 68 |
| Kwang Hyun Kim L 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.69 | 15.6% | 6.5% | 2.0% | .214 | 4.23 | 17.7% | 9.5% | 107 | +0.54 | 3.69 | 146 | 67 |
| Mike Dunn L 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.28 | 25.9% | 12.7% | 3.2% | .276 | 5.11 | 17.3% | 2.6% | 35 | +0.83 | 3.70 | 181 | 67 |
| Chris Rusin L 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.09 | 12.4% | 6.7% | 2.2% | .329 | 7.87 | 12.7% | 3.5% | 32 | +3.78 | 2.93 | 488 | 66 |
| Colt Hynes L 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.79 | 14.1% | 4.6% | 2.4% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 152 | 66 |
| Arturo Barradas L 2025 · 3.24 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.24 | 16.1% | 6.6% | 1.2% | .407 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 163 | 65 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.