Tyler Jay — OGILVIE

Tyler Jay P Nashville Sounds

Age 32 LHP 6'0" / 191 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 101109vR 118

ERA4.44

FIP4.44

K%17.1%

BB%8.1%

K-BB%9.1%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 2 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4040

SL (18%)

FB (60%)

SI (52%)

CT-1.1 (22%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	21	A+ MLE	Fort Myers Miracle	19	0	18	81	22	8	0	0%	1.0	20.9%	11.4%	9.6%	0.0%	3.93	2.77	—
2015	21	A+ RAW	Fort Myers Miracle	19	0	18	81	22	8	0	0%	1.0	27.2%	9.9%	17.3%	0.0%	3.93	2.01	—
2016	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	15	84	346	77	26	7	83%	4.6	17.2%	8.6%	8.7%	2.6%	3.33	4.15	—
2016	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	15	84	346	77	26	7	83%	4.6	22.3%	7.5%	14.7%	2.0%	3.33	3.28	—
2017	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	8	1	12	51	19	4	2	12%	1.5	37.3%	7.8%	29.4%	3.9%	3.09	3.10	—
2017	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	8	1	12	51	19	4	2	12%	1.5	37.3%	7.8%	29.4%	3.9%	3.09	3.10	—
2018	24	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	38	2	60	269	49	19	7	5%	1.6	14.8%	7.8%	7.0%	3.2%	4.22	4.60	—
2018	24	AA RAW	Chattanooga Lookouts	38	2	60	269	49	19	7	5%	1.6	18.2%	7.1%	11.2%	2.6%	4.22	3.94	—
2019	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	1	63	288	65	29	2	3%	1.7	17.4%	11.4%	6.0%	0.9%	4.02	3.56	—
2019	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	1	63	288	65	29	2	3%	1.7	22.6%	10.1%	12.5%	0.7%	4.02	2.83	—
2023	29	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	6	0	6	27	8	0	1	0%	1.0	29.6%	0.0%	29.6%	3.7%	6.00	2.63	—
2023	29	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	6	0	6	27	8	0	1	0%	1.0	29.6%	0.0%	29.6%	3.7%	6.00	2.63	—
2023	29	AAA RAW	Syracuse Mets	6	0	6	27	8	0	1	0%	1.0	29.6%	0.0%	29.6%	3.7%	6.00	2.60	—
2024	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	1	64	271	55	18	4	2%	1.6	17.3%	4.6%	12.7%	2.1%	3.22	3.35	+0.9
2024	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	1	64	271	55	18	4	2%	1.6	17.3%	4.6%	12.7%	2.1%	3.22	3.35	+0.9
2024	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	1	64	271	55	18	4	2%	1.6	20.3%	6.6%	13.7%	1.5%	3.22	3.04	+1.2
2025	31	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	28	0	27	113	21	14	1	0%	1.0	15.4%	11.2%	4.3%	0.9%	3.33	3.69	—
2025	31	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	28	0	27	113	21	14	1	0%	1.0	15.4%	11.2%	4.3%	0.9%	3.33	3.69	—
2025	31	AAA RAW	Nashville Sounds	28	0	27	113	21	14	1	0%	1.0	18.6%	12.4%	6.2%	0.9%	3.33	3.58	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			5	0	8	36	6	6	0	0%	1.5	16.7%	16.7%	0.0%	0.0%	4.70	3.88	+0.1
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	32	MLB	MIL	2	0	2	8	1	1	0	0%	1.0	17.1%	8.1%	9.1%	2.5%	4.44	4.44	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	33	MLB MLE	MIL	19	0	20	84	15	7	2	0%	1.1	17.2%	8.6%	8.6%	2.8%	4.58	4.68	-0.0
2027	33	MLB CTX	MIL	7	0	7	30	5	3	1	0%	1.0	17.2%	8.6%	8.6%	2.8%	4.58	4.68	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		12	0	15	67	11	9	1	0%	1.3	16.9%	12.9%	4.0%	1.3%	4.64	4.03	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		160	0	200	893	146	120	13	0%	1.3	16.9%	12.9%	4.0%	1.3%	4.64	4.03	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		195	20	333	1446	258	122	30	10%	1.7	17.8%	8.4%	9.4%	2.1%	3.67	3.79	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		117	12	200	868	155	73	18	10%	1.7	17.8%	8.4%	9.4%	2.1%	3.67	3.79	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tyler Jay (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.44	17.1%	8.1%	2.5%	—	4.68	17.2%	8.6%	20	+0.24	—	—	—
Phil Coke L 2015 · 3.89 FIP	33	SU	3.89	18.8%	9.1%	2.2%	.373	3.04	18.0%	11.3%	70	-0.85	3.04	101	73
Fernando Abad L 2017 · 3.53 FIP	31	SU	3.53	20.3%	7.1%	2.2%	.281	2.37	23.3%	21.0%	44	-1.16	2.37	306	71
Zach Phillips L 2019 · 3.67 FIP	32	SU	3.67	19.1%	8.5%	2.0%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	2.33	202	70
Adam Liberatore L 2018 · 4.28 FIP	31	SU	4.28	18.6%	9.1%	2.9%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	2.38	124	70
Dan Runzler L 2017 · 4.20 FIP	32	SU	4.20	17.5%	11.0%	2.1%	.325	4.84	16.0%	3.0%	27	+0.64	3.78	127	69
Sam Freeman L 2019 · 5.60 FIP	32	SU	5.60	16.8%	11.3%	4.5%	.380	4.01	18.5%	5.4%	36	-1.59	3.03	299	69
Colt Hynes L 2017 · 3.75 FIP	32	SW	3.75	14.1%	4.6%	2.3%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	152	69
Dana Eveland L 2016 · 3.84 FIP	32	SU	3.84	17.2%	9.7%	1.8%	.272	4.67	14.7%	10.0%	21	+0.83	2.42	129	68
Tony Watson L 2017 · 3.76 FIP	32	SU	3.76	18.2%	4.5%	3.0%	.292	3.39	22.8%	18.4%	138	-0.37	2.21	405	68
Jeremy Bleich L 2019 · 4.41 FIP	32	SW	4.41	20.1%	7.0%	3.9%	.360	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	241	67
Brian Duensing L 2015 · 4.47 FIP	32	SU	4.47	11.5%	8.1%	2.4%	.252	3.76	20.2%	11.8%	137	-0.71	2.57	198	67
Craig Breslow L 2015 · 4.94 FIP	34	SU	4.94	16.4%	6.4%	4.4%	.279	4.42	16.2%	6.5%	94	-0.52	4.22	159	66
Robbie Ross Jr. L 2021 · 4.98 FIP	32	SU	4.98	15.2%	7.0%	4.2%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	159	65
Marlon Arias L 2017 · 3.73 FIP	32	SU	3.73	17.2%	7.7%	2.0%	.443	4.83	19.8%	8.6%	74	+1.10	3.73	154	65
Dan Jennings L 2018 · 3.88 FIP	31	SU	3.88	16.6%	8.1%	2.1%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	244	64
Buddy Boshers L 2019 · 3.73 FIP	31	SU	3.73	25.3%	10.4%	2.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	223	62
Neal Cotts L 2015 · 4.66 FIP	35	SU	4.66	21.6%	7.4%	4.4%	.257	3.77	21.9%	14.5%	93	-0.89	3.21	156	62
Vidal Nuño L 2019 · 4.40 FIP	32	SU	4.40	20.2%	8.7%	3.5%	.376	4.88	16.0%	11.1%	53	+0.48	4.00	424	61
Ryan O'Rourke L 2019 · 4.08 FIP	31	SU	4.08	22.1%	14.3%	1.9%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	145	61
Edward Paredes L 2019 · 5.10 FIP	32	SU	5.10	21.5%	7.3%	5.3%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	130	60