Nick Duron prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Nick Duron P El Paso Chihuahuas

Age 30 RHP 6'4" / 190 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 9 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 108

ERA4.82

FIP4.82

K%21.7%

BB%12.2%

K-BB%9.5%

ROS IP9

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 9 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	19	ROK MLE	GCL Red Sox	14	0	26	107	28	5	1	0%	1.9	17.8%	5.8%	12.0%	1.3%	1.71	3.06	—
2015	19	ROK RAW	GCL Red Sox	14	0	26	107	28	5	1	0%	1.9	26.2%	4.7%	21.5%	0.9%	1.71	2.04	—
2018	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	6	29	139	24	10	4	60%	2.9	14.0%	8.7%	5.2%	4.6%	7.53	5.56	—
2018	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	6	29	139	24	10	4	60%	2.9	17.3%	7.2%	10.1%	2.9%	7.53	4.29	—
2019	23	A+ MLE	Modesto Nuts	25	0	36	156	51	16	1	0%	1.5	25.2%	11.8%	13.4%	1.0%	2.23	3.04	—
2019	23	A+ RAW	Modesto Nuts	25	0	36	156	51	16	1	0%	1.5	32.7%	10.3%	22.4%	0.6%	2.23	1.97	—
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	42	179	43	23	6	0%	1.1	20.0%	13.8%	6.2%	4.0%	4.50	5.38	—
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	0	42	179	43	23	6	0%	1.1	24.0%	12.8%	11.2%	3.4%	4.50	4.55	—
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	0	50	217	64	23	3	0%	0.9	26.0%	11.3%	14.7%	1.5%	2.72	3.16	+0.8
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	53	0	50	217	64	23	3	0%	0.9	29.5%	10.6%	18.9%	1.4%	2.72	2.70	+1.1
2023	27	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	14	0	16	84	17	21	1	0%	1.1	17.4%	22.5%	-5.1%	1.2%	7.47	5.16	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	14	0	16	84	17	21	1	0%	1.1	17.4%	22.5%	-5.1%	1.2%	7.47	5.16	—
2023	27	AAA RAW	El Paso Chihuahuas	14	0	16	84	17	21	1	0%	1.1	20.2%	25.0%	-4.8%	1.2%	7.47	5.78	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	25.0%	0.0%	25.0%	0.0%	0.00	1.10	+0.0
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	30	MLB	SD	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.7%	12.2%	9.5%	3.0%	4.82	4.82	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	SD	19	0	20	84	18	10	3	0%	1.1	21.5%	12.3%	9.2%	3.2%	4.89	4.97	-0.1
2027	31	MLB CTX	SD	7	0	7	30	6	4	1	0%	1.0	21.5%	12.3%	9.2%	3.2%	4.89	4.97	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	8	35	8	4	1	0%	1.0	21.9%	10.9%	11.0%	2.8%	4.30	4.18	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		192	0	200	839	192	96	24	0%	1.0	21.9%	10.9%	11.0%	2.8%	4.30	4.18	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		154	6	199	882	185	105	21	4%	1.3	20.9%	11.9%	9.0%	2.4%	3.94	4.14	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		155	6	200	888	186	106	21	4%	1.3	20.9%	11.9%	9.0%	2.4%	3.94	4.14	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nick Duron (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.82	21.7%	12.2%	3.0%	—	4.97	21.5%	9.2%	20	+0.15	—	—	—
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	80
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	78
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	78
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	76
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	75
Esteban Haro R 2016 · 4.55 FIP	30	SU	4.55	17.1%	10.2%	2.9%	.338	3.83	11.6%	6.3%	75	-0.72	3.76	164	74
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	74
Erik Davis R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	30	SU	4.25	22.2%	11.1%	3.0%	.349	3.52	17.4%	8.5%	65	-0.73	3.05	227	72
Javy Guerra R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	30	SU	4.29	21.3%	13.9%	2.3%	.303	3.95	19.5%	13.0%	193	-0.34	2.94	409	71
Scott Atchison R 2007 · 4.55 FIP	31	SU	4.55	19.1%	7.6%	3.8%	.297	4.59	16.2%	9.5%	60	+0.04	2.52	340	70
Dalier Hinojosa R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	30	SU	4.30	18.7%	12.6%	2.2%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	104	70
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	69
Mike Broadway R 2017 · 4.73 FIP	30	SU	4.73	18.3%	10.2%	3.4%	.245	4.65	23.0%	12.4%	49	-0.08	1.74	195	69
Taylor Williams R 2021 · 5.96 FIP	30	SU	5.96	19.9%	14.1%	5.0%	.261	3.79	18.8%	9.0%	101	-2.17	2.51	309	69
R.J. Alvarez R 2021 · 3.68 FIP	30	SU	3.68	23.3%	10.8%	2.2%	.304	4.06	19.2%	5.7%	46	+0.38	3.01	302	69
Bryan Mitchell R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	30	SU	4.29	20.6%	12.0%	2.5%	.305	5.07	14.4%	3.9%	39	+0.78	2.72	481	68
Carlos Fisher R 2011 · 4.33 FIP	28	SU	4.33	15.5%	9.1%	2.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	245	68
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2015 · 5.21 FIP	30	SU	5.21	18.6%	7.6%	4.9%	.373	3.56	18.5%	9.3%	93	-1.65	3.50	170	68
Andrew Robinson R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SU	4.32	23.4%	8.8%	3.8%	.245	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	160	68
Ronald Peña R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	29	SU	4.49	16.5%	10.4%	2.7%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	3.72	187	68