Nick Duron
P
El Paso Chihuahuas
+0.1
WAR
Age 30
RHP
6'4" / 190 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.46
FIP4.46
xFIP1.11
SIERA-0.92
K%23.1%
BB%10.3%
K-BB%12.7%
IP13
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 19 | ROK | GCL Red Sox | 14 | 0 | 26 | 107 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 17.8% | 5.8% | 1.3% | 1.71 | 3.06 | +0.6 |
| 2018 | 22 | A | Greenville Drive | 10 | 6 | 29 | 139 | 24 | 10 | 4 | 14.0% | 8.7% | 4.6% | 7.53 | 5.53 | -0.2 |
| 2019 | 23 | A+ | Modesto Nuts | 25 | 0 | 36 | 156 | 51 | 16 | 1 | 25.2% | 11.8% | 1.1% | 2.23 | 3.05 | +0.8 |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 38 | 0 | 42 | 179 | 43 | 23 | 6 | 20.0% | 13.8% | 4.1% | 4.50 | 5.41 | -0.2 |
| 2022 | 26 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 53 | 0 | 50 | 217 | 64 | 23 | 3 | 26.0% | 11.3% | 1.5% | 2.72 | 3.16 | +1.0 |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 14 | 0 | 16 | 84 | 17 | 21 | 1 | 17.8% | 26.2% | 1.3% | 7.47 | 5.61 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | SD | 13 | — | 13 | 54 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 23.1% | 10.3% | 3.0% | 4.46 | 4.46 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | SD | 20 | — | 20 | 84 | 19 | 9 | 3 | 22.9% | 10.3% | 3.0% | 4.49 | 4.52 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 154 | 6 | 199 | 882 | 185 | 108 | 21 | 21.0% | 12.3% | 2.4% | 3.94 | 4.19 | +2.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 155 | 6 | 200 | 888 | 186 | 109 | 21 | 21.0% | 12.3% | 2.4% | 3.94 | 4.19 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nick Duron (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.46 | 23.1% | 10.3% | 3.0% | — | 4.52 | 22.9% | 12.5% | 20 | +0.06 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2029 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 83 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2029 · 4.47 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.47 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.9% | .263 | 3.98 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.49 | 3.98 | 104 | 77 |
| David Hernandez R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.62 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.5% | .287 | 3.18 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.44 | 2.56 | 268 | 76 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 76 |
| Michael Mariot R 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.10 | 19.8% | 11.1% | 4.1% | .333 | 5.03 | 15.8% | 7.4% | 182 | -0.07 | 2.39 | 676 | 75 |
| John Axford R 2028 · 3.28 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.28 | 24.8% | 11.2% | 1.6% | .333 | 3.94 | 21.5% | 11.1% | 141 | +0.66 | 3.28 | 197 | 75 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 75 |
| Brian Schlitter R 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.31 | 20.6% | 10.8% | 1.1% | .333 | 3.78 | 14.4% | 6.6% | 110 | +0.47 | 3.31 | 244 | 74 |
| Javy Guerra R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.3% | .303 | 3.87 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.43 | 3.01 | 260 | 74 |
| Esteban Haro R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.58 | 17.1% | 10.2% | 3.0% | .338 | 3.79 | 11.6% | 6.3% | 75 | -0.79 | 3.73 | 164 | 73 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.72 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.6% | .287 | 3.88 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.16 | 3.38 | 129 | 73 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2027 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 72 |
| Oliver Drake R 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.42 | 24.7% | 9.2% | 2.3% | .356 | 3.13 | 30.1% | 22.1% | 127 | -0.29 | 2.26 | 317 | 72 |
| Logan Kensing R 2029 · 3.61 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.61 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.55 | 2.72 | 172 | 72 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 23.4% | 8.8% | 3.8% | .245 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 160 | 72 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2028 · 3.45 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.45 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.18 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.27 | 2.48 | 147 | 72 |
| Heath Hembree R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.28 | 26.6% | 9.2% | 4.1% | .260 | 5.25 | 27.8% | 17.4% | 99 | +0.97 | 2.67 | 382 | 71 |
| Adam Warren R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.56 | 23.3% | 8.5% | 2.5% | .288 | 4.73 | 20.6% | 9.9% | 86 | +1.17 | 2.72 | 392 | 71 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.16 | 18.6% | 7.6% | 4.9% | .373 | 3.54 | 18.5% | 9.3% | 93 | -1.62 | 3.45 | 170 | 71 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2028 · 3.33 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.33 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.4% | .342 | 4.98 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.65 | 3.33 | 122 | 71 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.