Nolan Kingham

P Tacoma Rainiers

Age 30 RHP 6'4" / 210 lbs AAA peak 0.4 · 2027

Overview

AAARPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	25	MIX2 levels	32	19	97	4.62	3.99	17.9%	4.2%	—	K 15.5% · BB 4.4% · FIP 4.57
2023	26	MIX2 levels	27	13	86	4.38	3.98	16.9%	9.9%	—	K 14.2% · BB 9.6% · FIP 4.32
2026	29	MIX2 levels	19	16	78	6.20	4.35	21.4%	10.0%	0.5	K 18.4% · BB 8.6% · FIP 4.56
2027PROJ	30	MLBTEX	9	9	52	4.74	4.74	18.9%	8.7%	0.1
2028PROJ37% MLB	31	MLBTEX	3	3	18	4.82	4.90	19.0%	9.1%	0.0
2029PROJ55% MLB	32	MLBTEX	4	4	25	4.96	5.08	18.8%	9.5%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.5 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsZack Segovia (age 32) · Elian Leyva (age 30) · Travis Smith (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.74

FIP4.74

K%18.9%

BB%8.7%

K-BB%10.2%

Proj IP52

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	21	ROK MLE	Danville Braves	11	3	24	101	18	7	2	27%	2.2	12.1%	8.7%	3.5%	2.8%	4.56	4.70	—
2018	21	ROK RAW	Danville Braves	11	3	24	101	18	7	2	27%	2.2	17.8%	6.9%	10.9%	2.0%	4.56	3.56	—
2019	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	27	165	688	116	36	11	100%	6.1	13.1%	5.9%	7.1%	2.2%	3.92	3.93	—
2019	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	27	165	688	116	36	11	100%	6.1	16.9%	5.2%	11.6%	1.6%	3.92	3.21	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	16	94	399	63	24	12	84%	5.0	13.1%	6.4%	6.7%	3.5%	4.58	4.74	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	16	94	399	63	24	12	84%	5.0	15.8%	6.0%	9.8%	3.0%	4.58	4.18	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	19	97	407	73	17	14	59%	3.0	15.5%	4.4%	11.0%	4.0%	4.62	4.57	—
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	19	97	407	73	17	14	59%	3.0	17.9%	4.2%	13.8%	3.4%	4.62	3.99	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	13	86	373	63	37	7	48%	3.2	14.2%	9.6%	4.7%	2.2%	4.38	4.32	—
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	13	86	373	63	37	7	48%	3.2	16.9%	9.9%	7.0%	1.9%	4.38	3.98	—
2026	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	16	78	351	75	35	11	84%	4.1	18.4%	8.6%	9.8%	3.5%	6.20	4.56	+0.3
2026	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	16	78	351	75	35	11	84%	4.1	18.4%	8.6%	9.8%	3.5%	6.20	4.56	+0.3
2026	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	16	78	351	75	35	11	84%	4.1	21.4%	10.0%	11.4%	3.1%	6.20	4.35	+0.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			1	0	1	6	1	2	0	0%	1.0	16.7%	33.3%	-16.7%	0.0%	9.00	7.10	-0.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	TEX	9	9	52	220	42	19	7	100%	5.8	18.9%	8.7%	10.2%	3.2%	4.74	4.74	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	TEX	8	8	49	207	39	19	7	100%	6.1	19.0%	9.1%	9.9%	3.4%	4.82	4.90	0.0
2029	32	MLB MLE	TEX	8	8	45	191	36	18	7	100%	5.7	18.8%	9.5%	9.4%	3.6%	4.96	5.08	-0.1
2030	33	MLB MLE	TEX	7	7	42	176	33	17	7	100%	5.9	18.6%	9.9%	8.6%	3.9%	5.15	5.30	-0.2
2028	31	MLB CTX	TEX	3	3	18	76	14	7	3	100%	6.0	19.0%	9.1%	9.9%	3.4%	4.82	4.90	0.0
2029	32	MLB CTX	TEX	4	4	25	106	20	10	4	100%	6.2	18.8%	9.5%	9.4%	3.6%	4.96	5.08	-0.1
2030	33	MLB CTX	TEX	5	5	28	118	22	12	5	100%	5.6	18.6%	9.9%	8.6%	3.9%	5.15	5.30	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		13	12	72	306	57	31	11	92%	5.5	18.7%	10.0%	8.7%	3.6%	5.06	4.76	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	33	200	849	158	86	30	92%	5.6	18.7%	10.0%	8.7%	3.6%	5.06	4.76	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		135	94	545	2319	336	159	69	70%	4.0	14.5%	6.9%	7.6%	3.0%	4.59	4.37	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	34	200	850	123	58	25	70%	4.0	14.5%	6.9%	7.6%	3.0%	4.59	4.37	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nolan Kingham (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.74	18.9%	8.7%	3.2%	—	5.08	18.8%	9.3%	136	+0.34	—	—	—
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	76
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	72
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	72
Michael Mariot R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	30	SP	5.01	19.8%	11.1%	4.0%	.333	5.03	15.8%	7.4%	182	+0.02	2.40	701	70
Reinier Roibal R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	30	SP	4.91	17.5%	11.8%	3.3%	.426	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	133	68
Jared Fernandez R 2002 · 4.23 FIP	30	SP-	4.23	15.6%	10.0%	2.2%	.323	3.57	11.8%	5.6%	38	-0.66	3.57	101	67
David Hale R 2018 · 4.22 FIP	30	SP-	4.22	15.4%	7.5%	2.7%	.299	3.65	17.1%	11.3%	114	-0.57	3.30	581	66
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	66
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	66
Mike Burns R 2009 · 4.90 FIP	31	SP-	4.90	17.2%	6.6%	4.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	104	64
Tyler Herron R 2017 · 4.02 FIP	30	SP	4.02	16.4%	8.7%	2.2%	.377	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	117	63
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	29	SP-	4.01	17.3%	10.9%	1.8%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	272	62
Miguel Ruiz R 2015 · 5.77 FIP	29	SP-	5.77	8.8%	8.0%	4.4%	.346	5.60	10.6%	-0.4%	53	-0.17	5.60	117	62
Chris Mazza R 2020 · 3.94 FIP	30	SP-	3.94	21.3%	11.0%	2.3%	.348	3.95	21.4%	13.5%	111	+0.01	3.29	563	62
Forrest Snow R 2019 · 5.53 FIP	30	SP	5.53	18.8%	8.5%	5.3%	.371	—	—	—	—	—	3.02	406	61
Danny Gutierrez R 2017 · 4.11 FIP	30	SP	4.11	15.1%	6.1%	2.8%	.362	—	—	—	—	—	3.34	239	61
Logan Bawcom R 2019 · 5.33 FIP	30	SP-	5.33	17.1%	7.1%	5.1%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	399	60
Hiram Burgos R 2017 · 4.94 FIP	29	SP	4.94	19.3%	7.5%	4.6%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	384	60
Seth Greisinger R 2004 · 5.38 FIP	29	SP-	5.38	15.5%	6.0%	5.1%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	4.53	219	60
Jon Leicester R 2007 · 4.44 FIP	28	SP-	4.44	11.0%	9.0%	2.1%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	113	60

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	47	18.8%	9.4%	1.35	4.93
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*