Jordan Hicks — OGILVIE

Jordan Hicks P Chicago White Sox

+0.8 WAR

Age 29 RHP 6'2" / 217 lbs MLB Svc 8.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 0.8 · 2026

ERA4.49

FIP4.33

xFIP6.19

SIERA6.39

K%20.4%

BB%9.8%

K-BB%10.6%

IP78

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.8peak

2026

K†5555

FB Velo

p9097.5

Whiff%

p1014.0%

p1011.1%

xwOBA vs

p590.303

SI (67%)

SL (27%)

FB-2.2 (70%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2016	19	ROK	Johnson City Cardinals	6	6	30	132	20	13	1	10.3%	12.3%	1.1%	4.20	4.37	+0.2
2017	20	A+	Palm Beach Cardinals	22	19	105	452	95	45	3	15.8%	11.7%	0.9%	2.74	3.74	+1.9
2018	21	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	73	0	78	339	70	43	2	20.6%	12.7%	0.6%	3.59	3.31	+1.6
2019	22	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	29	0	29	110	31	11	2	28.2%	10.0%	2.1%	3.14	3.12	+0.6
2021	24	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	13	3	13	59	13	13	2	—	—	—	7.62	—	—
2022	25	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	39	9	66	288	68	39	6	24.0%	13.3%	1.8%	5.43	3.75	+0.9
2023	26	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	65	0	66	285	81	31	4	28.4%	10.9%	1.5%	3.29	2.90	+1.6
2024	27	MLB	San Francisco Giants	29	20	110	481	96	47	12	20.0%	9.8%	2.8%	4.10	4.18	+1.4
2025	28	MLB	Boston Red Sox	36	10	69	325	60	33	7	18.5%	9.9%	1.9%	7.04	3.82	+0.9
▸ 2026 Season
2026	29	MLB	Chicago White Sox	10	0	10	46	6	7	0	—	—	—	5.40	—	—
ROS	29	MLB	CWS	12	12	68	288	66	28	7	22.8%	9.8%	2.5%	4.51	4.16	+0.7
2026 Total	29	MLB	CWS	—	—	78	334	72	35	7	21.4%	10.5%	2.1%	4.62	3.63	+1.3
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	30	MLB	CWS	14	14	76	321	65	34	7	20.4%	10.5%	2.3%	4.47	4.37	+0.6
2028	31	MLB	CWS	13	13	73	309	61	33	7	19.8%	10.7%	2.4%	4.47	4.47	+0.5
2029	32	MLB	CWS	13	13	70	297	57	32	7	19.2%	10.8%	2.5%	4.54	4.59	+0.4
2030	33	MLB	CWS	12	12	67	284	53	31	7	18.5%	11.0%	2.6%	4.65	4.72	+0.2
2031	34	MLB	CWS	12	12	64	269	48	30	7	17.8%	11.2%	2.7%	4.77	4.86	+0.1
2032	35	MLB	CWS	11	11	60	254	43	29	7	17.1%	11.4%	2.8%	4.91	5.01	-0.0
2033	36	MLB	CWS	56	—	56	237	39	28	7	16.3%	11.7%	2.9%	5.07	5.17	-0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			322	67	575	2517	511	292	41	20.3%	11.6%	1.6%	4.26	3.74	+10.2
/ 200 IP	—			112	23	200	875	178	102	14	20.3%	11.6%	1.6%	4.26	3.74	+3.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jordan Hicks (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.16	22.8%	9.8%	2.5%	—	4.47	19.8%	9.1%	220	+0.31	—	—	—
Tanner Scheppers R 2025 · 4.38 FIP	28	SW	4.38	17.7%	11.2%	2.5%	.263	4.82	15.7%	9.0%	48	+0.44	4.38	101	73
Luis García R 2026 · 3.77 FIP	29	SW	3.77	20.6%	10.9%	1.9%	.281	3.74	21.6%	12.6%	179	-0.03	2.26	602	73
Dustin Molleken R 2027 · 3.72 FIP	30	SW	3.72	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.88	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	71
Gregory Infante R 2026 · 4.46 FIP	29	SW	4.46	19.0%	12.3%	2.6%	.333	3.47	22.5%	15.8%	120	-0.99	2.97	230	71
Al Alburquerque R 2026 · 3.56 FIP	29	SW	3.56	21.4%	11.1%	1.6%	.330	3.23	21.3%	12.5%	114	-0.33	2.83	228	71
Ryan Cook R 2025 · 4.78 FIP	28	SW	4.78	16.5%	9.9%	3.3%	.297	3.85	25.1%	14.3%	50	-0.93	3.85	102	71
Dalier Hinojosa R 2026 · 3.41 FIP	29	SW	3.41	20.4%	9.8%	1.4%	.283	4.31	18.7%	6.1%	24	+0.90	3.41	104	71
Esmil Rogers R 2026 · 3.44 FIP	29	SW	3.44	18.5%	8.9%	1.4%	.348	2.85	21.7%	17.9%	40	-0.59	2.85	199	70
Chris Leroux R 2028 · 4.22 FIP	31	SW	4.22	15.2%	8.6%	2.4%	.279	4.06	13.5%	5.5%	140	-0.16	4.06	219	70
Pedro Beato R 2026 · 4.25 FIP	29	SW	4.25	19.2%	8.5%	3.1%	.275	3.71	18.5%	11.1%	152	-0.54	3.46	295	70
Bo Schultz R 2026 · 4.20 FIP	29	SW	4.20	18.3%	7.9%	3.0%	.218	3.50	15.1%	8.9%	77	-0.70	2.73	141	70
Kevin Jepsen R 2028 · 3.46 FIP	31	SW	3.46	20.7%	9.1%	1.7%	.241	5.68	16.9%	7.2%	90	+2.22	3.46	160	70
Arquimedes Caminero R 2026 · 4.49 FIP	29	SW	4.49	17.9%	11.4%	2.6%	.314	4.60	18.6%	7.5%	38	+0.11	3.38	173	70
Tom Wilhelmsen R 2028 · 3.11 FIP	31	SW	3.11	22.5%	9.7%	1.2%	.298	5.81	13.8%	4.1%	86	+2.70	3.11	148	69
Edwin Jackson R 2028 · 3.75 FIP	31	SW	3.75	17.5%	8.8%	1.9%	.244	4.71	17.6%	7.8%	377	+0.96	3.75	521	69
Angel Castro R 2029 · 4.53 FIP	32	SW	4.53	15.9%	8.0%	3.2%	.268	4.27	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.26	3.50	292	69
Yoanner Negrin R 2028 · 3.80 FIP	31	SW	3.80	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.51	3.15	485	69
Tim Dillard R 2029 · 3.60 FIP	32	SW	3.60	15.9%	7.7%	1.6%	.330	3.87	16.7%	8.1%	144	+0.27	3.12	352	68
Gonzalez Germen R 2025 · 3.94 FIP	28	SW	3.94	19.2%	10.9%	2.0%	.292	3.68	15.5%	6.9%	16	-0.26	3.68	146	68
Drew Hayes R 2025 · 4.00 FIP	28	SW	4.00	13.8%	10.1%	1.5%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.35	117	68

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2018

Service 8.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Ext / FA-deal	$11M	+0.8	$3M	-$8M
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$11M	+0.6	$2M	-$9M
Totals		$22M		$6M	-$16M