Alex Valverde prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Alex Valverde P Arkansas Travelers

Age 29 RHP 6'2" / 185 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 54 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.94

FIP4.94

K%18.4%

BB%10.6%

K-BB%7.8%

ROS IP54

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 54 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	20	ROK MLE	GCL Rays	4	3	11	50	11	2	1	75%	2.8	15.0%	5.0%	10.0%	2.8%	3.18	4.01	—
2017	20	ROK RAW	GCL Rays	4	3	11	50	11	2	1	75%	2.8	22.0%	4.0%	18.0%	2.0%	3.18	2.84	—
2018	21	A MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	24	21	109	501	79	57	15	88%	4.5	11.7%	13.4%	-1.8%	3.8%	4.56	5.88	—
2018	21	A RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	24	21	109	501	79	57	15	88%	4.5	15.8%	11.4%	4.4%	3.0%	4.56	5.01	—
2019	22	A+ MLE	Charlotte Stone Crabs	34	0	65	287	65	21	11	0%	1.9	17.4%	8.4%	9.0%	5.1%	4.29	5.50	—
2019	22	A+ RAW	Charlotte Stone Crabs	34	0	65	287	65	21	11	0%	1.9	22.6%	7.3%	15.3%	3.8%	4.29	4.27	—
2021	24	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	30	10	72	321	92	27	6	33%	2.4	23.2%	9.3%	14.0%	2.4%	4.88	3.62	—
2021	24	AA RAW	Montgomery Biscuits	30	10	72	321	92	27	6	33%	2.4	28.7%	8.4%	20.2%	1.9%	4.88	2.75	—
2022	25	AA MLE	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	23	17	87	385	98	37	18	74%	3.8	20.6%	10.6%	10.0%	6.3%	5.79	6.14	—
2022	25	AA RAW	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	23	17	87	385	98	37	18	74%	3.8	25.5%	9.6%	15.8%	4.7%	5.79	4.81	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	17	79	362	66	42	10	71%	3.3	15.1%	11.7%	3.4%	3.3%	5.58	5.11	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	17	79	362	66	42	10	71%	3.3	15.1%	11.7%	3.4%	3.3%	5.58	5.11	—
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	17	79	362	66	42	10	71%	3.3	18.2%	11.6%	6.6%	2.8%	5.58	4.67	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	29	MLB	NYM	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.4%	10.6%	7.8%	3.1%	4.94	4.94	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	NYM	48	0	51	215	40	23	7	0%	1.1	18.5%	10.8%	7.8%	3.2%	4.99	5.06	-0.3
2028	31	MLB MLE	NYM	45	0	48	201	37	22	7	0%	1.1	18.5%	11.0%	7.5%	3.5%	5.10	5.20	-0.3
2029	32	MLB MLE	NYM	42	0	44	185	34	21	7	0%	1.0	18.3%	11.3%	7.0%	3.7%	5.26	5.39	-0.4
2027	30	MLB CTX	NYM	15	0	16	68	13	7	2	0%	1.1	18.5%	10.8%	7.8%	3.2%	4.99	5.06	-0.1
2028	31	MLB CTX	NYM	23	0	24	101	19	11	3	0%	1.0	18.5%	11.0%	7.5%	3.5%	5.10	5.20	-0.2
2029	32	MLB CTX	NYM	28	0	29	122	22	14	5	0%	1.0	18.3%	11.3%	7.0%	3.7%	5.26	5.39	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		66	0	69	291	54	32	10	0%	1.0	18.4%	11.1%	7.4%	3.5%	5.14	4.87	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	157	93	29	0%	1.1	18.4%	11.1%	7.4%	3.5%	5.14	4.87	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		139	68	423	1906	325	207	79	49%	3.0	17.0%	10.8%	6.2%	4.1%	4.98	5.30	-1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		66	32	200	901	153	98	37	49%	3.0	17.0%	10.8%	6.2%	4.1%	4.98	5.30	-1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alex Valverde (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.94	18.4%	10.6%	3.1%	—	5.21	18.5%	7.4%	142	+0.27	—	—	—
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	76
Alfonso Sanchez R 2017 · 4.51 FIP	29	SW	4.51	12.5%	9.8%	2.2%	.346	7.58	8.6%	1.4%	39	+3.07	4.51	224	75
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	29	SP-	4.01	17.3%	10.9%	1.8%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	272	74
Carlos Frías R 2019 · 4.42 FIP	29	SP-	4.42	16.9%	11.1%	2.4%	.369	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	236	73
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	73
Jose Pina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	29	SW	4.90	16.9%	9.2%	3.8%	.231	3.66	13.6%	6.9%	246	-1.24	3.63	424	73
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	72
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SW	4.29	12.4%	6.9%	2.5%	.288	4.81	11.4%	1.3%	125	+0.52	3.39	212	72
Orlando Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	27	SW	4.67	13.7%	10.6%	2.5%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	4.40	119	72
Zach Stewart R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	28	SP-	4.43	14.4%	8.3%	2.7%	.322	5.17	11.7%	2.1%	51	+0.74	4.27	194	72
Jose A. Flores R 2018 · 4.77 FIP	29	SP-	4.77	13.7%	10.3%	2.8%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	237	72
Bradin Hagens R 2018 · 4.92 FIP	29	SP-	4.92	14.9%	9.9%	3.3%	.341	5.46	13.2%	0.6%	66	+0.54	3.79	254	71
Aldo Montes R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	29	SW	4.69	18.2%	10.6%	3.3%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	4.69	210	70
Jon Leicester R 2007 · 4.44 FIP	28	SP-	4.44	11.0%	9.0%	2.1%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	113	70
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	69
Fredy Quintero R 2017 · 4.45 FIP	29	SW	4.45	14.0%	8.7%	2.6%	.335	4.62	17.2%	3.5%	43	+0.17	4.29	241	69
Sugar Ray Marimon R 2015 · 4.12 FIP	26	SW	4.12	12.4%	9.1%	1.7%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	107	68
Deck McGuire R 2018 · 5.28 FIP	29	SW	5.28	18.4%	13.2%	3.8%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	622	68
David Griffin R 2023 · 5.83 FIP	27	SP-	5.83	14.2%	9.2%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	239	68
Derek Eitel R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	29	SP-	4.72	17.2%	16.0%	1.9%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	138	68

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	49	18.4%	10.9%	1.29	5.06
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Will Cunnane ('04)	1.4	46	18.9%	10.4%	1.25	5.26
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Scott Proctor ('11)	1.7	57	19.0%	10.9%	1.52	4.78
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98