Justin Hagenman

P Syracuse Mets

Age 30 RHP 6'3" / 205 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIEFG #571

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	27	AAABOS	28	15	92	4.91	4.95	24.5%	7.8%	—	K 21.1% · BB 7.0% · FIP 5.39
2025	28	MIX2 levels	30	14	93	5.32	3.90	24.4%	3.8%	0.7	K 21.8% · BB 3.5% · FIP 3.97
2026	29	MIX4 levels	9	6	27	3.29	5.00	14.7%	6.0%	-0.0	K 11.9% · BB 6.2% · FIP 4.97
2027PROJ	30	MLBNYM	51	0	54	4.24	4.30	19.8%	4.2%	0.2
2028PROJ61% MLB	31	MLBNYM	30	0	31	4.42	4.53	19.4%	5.1%	0.0
2029PROJ72% MLB	32	MLBNYM	31	0	33	4.63	4.77	18.9%	5.8%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.7 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

Whiff%55

K%55

xwOBA vs46

FB Velo29

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsMark Serrano (age 30) · Scott Atchison (age 31) · Neil Wagner (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115107vR 99

ERA4.24

FIP4.30

K%19.8%

BB%4.2%

K-BB%15.6%

Proj IP54

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 54 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4550

CMD6060

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2993.0

Whiff%

p5526.0%

p5523.2%

xwOBA vs

p460.316

CT+2.7 (32%)

SL+2.6 (20%)

SI (25%)

FB-2.2 (25%)

CH-2.8 (23%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	0	30	126	29	8	4	0%	2.1	17.8%	8.5%	9.3%	3.2%	4.80	4.43	—
2018	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	0	30	126	29	8	4	0%	2.1	23.0%	6.3%	16.7%	3.2%	4.80	3.70	—
2019	22	A MLE	Great Lakes Loons	33	1	76	316	64	16	2	3%	2.3	15.0%	6.0%	9.0%	0.8%	2.24	3.03	—
2019	22	A RAW	Great Lakes Loons	33	1	76	316	64	16	2	3%	2.3	20.3%	5.1%	15.2%	0.6%	2.24	2.39	—
2021	24	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	38	2	63	254	77	17	6	5%	1.6	24.6%	7.4%	17.2%	3.0%	3.45	3.62	—
2021	24	AA RAW	Tulsa Drillers	38	2	63	254	77	17	6	5%	1.6	30.3%	6.7%	23.6%	2.4%	3.45	2.70	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	2	63	275	65	22	9	4%	1.4	20.5%	9.3%	11.2%	3.7%	5.57	4.61	—
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	2	63	275	65	22	9	4%	1.4	23.6%	8.0%	15.6%	3.3%	5.57	3.94	—
2023	26	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	41	5	85	346	88	25	15	12%	2.1	21.9%	6.5%	15.4%	4.7%	2.95	4.67	—
2023	26	AAA RAW	Worcester Red Sox	41	5	85	346	88	25	15	12%	2.1	25.4%	7.2%	18.2%	4.3%	2.95	4.20	—
2024	27	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	28	15	92	400	98	31	21	54%	3.3	21.1%	7.0%	14.1%	5.8%	4.91	5.39	—
2024	27	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	28	15	92	400	98	31	21	54%	3.3	21.1%	7.0%	14.1%	5.8%	4.91	5.39	—
2024	27	AAA RAW	Worcester Red Sox	28	15	92	400	98	31	21	54%	3.3	24.5%	7.8%	16.8%	5.2%	4.91	4.95	—
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	14	93	394	96	15	17	47%	3.1	21.8%	3.5%	18.3%	4.1%	5.32	3.97	+0.6
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	14	93	394	96	15	17	47%	3.1	21.8%	3.5%	18.3%	4.1%	5.32	3.97	+0.6
2025	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	14	93	394	96	15	17	47%	3.1	24.4%	3.8%	20.6%	4.3%	5.32	3.90	+0.7
2026	29	MIX MLE	4 levels	9	6	27	116	17	7	5	67%	3.0	11.9%	6.2%	5.7%	3.8%	3.29	4.97	-0.0
2026	29	MIX MLE	4 levels	9	6	27	116	17	7	5	67%	3.0	11.9%	6.2%	5.7%	3.8%	3.29	4.97	-0.0
2026	29	MIX RAW	4 levels	9	6	27	116	17	7	5	67%	3.0	14.7%	6.0%	8.6%	4.3%	3.29	5.00	-0.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			12	2	32	132	27	4	6	17%	2.6	20.5%	3.0%	17.4%	4.5%	4.26	4.24	+0.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	NYM	51	0	54	228	45	10	8	0%	1.1	19.8%	4.2%	15.6%	3.6%	4.24	4.30	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	NYM	48	0	51	214	42	11	8	0%	1.1	19.4%	5.1%	14.4%	3.7%	4.42	4.53	+0.0
2029	32	MLB MLE	NYM	45	0	47	198	37	11	8	0%	1.0	18.9%	5.8%	13.2%	3.9%	4.63	4.77	-0.1
2030	33	MLB MLE	NYM	41	0	43	181	33	12	8	0%	1.0	18.3%	6.4%	11.9%	4.2%	4.86	5.03	-0.2
2028	31	MLB CTX	NYM	30	0	31	131	25	7	5	0%	1.0	19.4%	5.1%	14.4%	3.7%	4.42	4.53	+0.0
2029	32	MLB CTX	NYM	31	0	33	139	26	8	5	0%	1.1	18.9%	5.8%	13.2%	3.9%	4.63	4.77	-0.1
2030	33	MLB CTX	NYM	32	0	34	144	26	9	6	0%	1.1	18.3%	6.4%	11.9%	4.2%	4.86	5.03	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		105	2	130	546	105	28	22	2%	1.2	19.3%	5.1%	14.2%	4.1%	4.55	4.37	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		162	3	200	842	162	43	34	2%	1.2	19.3%	5.1%	14.2%	4.1%	4.55	4.37	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		239	45	529	2227	448	145	85	19%	2.2	20.1%	6.5%	13.6%	3.8%	4.10	4.32	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		90	17	200	841	169	55	32	19%	2.2	20.1%	6.5%	13.6%	3.8%	4.10	4.32	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Justin Hagenman (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.30	19.8%	4.2%	3.6%	—	4.76	18.9%	13.2%	140	+0.46	—	—	—
Mark Serrano R 2016 · 3.16 FIP	30	SU	3.16	17.7%	6.5%	1.3%	.290	4.36	21.1%	14.0%	88	+1.20	3.16	120	67
Scott Atchison R 2007 · 4.55 FIP	31	SU	4.55	19.1%	7.6%	3.8%	.297	4.59	16.2%	9.5%	60	+0.04	2.52	340	66
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	66
Michael Brady R 2017 · 4.02 FIP	30	SW	4.02	19.9%	3.0%	4.0%	.264	3.28	15.7%	12.0%	55	-0.74	3.02	333	65
Rob Wooten R 2015 · 4.86 FIP	30	SU	4.86	19.3%	5.5%	4.9%	.299	3.87	17.7%	14.4%	111	-0.99	2.48	253	65
Josh Lindblom R 2017 · 3.91 FIP	30	SW	3.91	18.7%	5.5%	3.1%	.333	3.50	27.2%	18.8%	45	-0.41	1.83	480	65
Kaleb Fleck R 2018 · 3.47 FIP	29	SU	3.47	24.6%	5.9%	3.1%	.346	—	—	—	—	—	2.68	177	65
Adrian Ramirez R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	31	SU	4.29	21.7%	6.3%	4.0%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.04	137	64
Cody Satterwhite R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	30	SU	4.22	17.0%	7.1%	3.0%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	147	63
Cory Wade R 2012 · 4.15 FIP	29	SU	4.15	22.2%	4.1%	4.4%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	178	63
Colin Rea R 2020 · 4.91 FIP	30	SW	4.91	16.1%	3.2%	5.0%	.255	3.92	21.8%	15.9%	178	-0.99	2.57	1,116	63
Cory Mazzoni R 2018 · 4.20 FIP	28	SU	4.20	18.1%	5.1%	3.6%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	0.78	101	63
Alex Wimmers R 2017 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	23.2%	5.8%	3.2%	.235	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	230	62
Vinny Nittoli R 2021 · 4.12 FIP	30	SW	4.12	26.6%	5.6%	4.6%	.307	4.52	25.7%	17.6%	125	+0.40	3.66	331	62
Anthony Vizcaya R 2024 · 3.54 FIP	30	SU	3.54	18.2%	5.7%	2.3%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.22	115	62
Gerardo Sanchez R 2019 · 3.58 FIP	30	SU	3.58	20.5%	5.4%	2.8%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.65	137	62
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	62
Brandon Gomes R 2014 · 4.50 FIP	30	SU	4.50	17.4%	6.5%	3.7%	.230	4.81	18.1%	10.3%	82	+0.31	3.48	190	62
Jeremy Fikac R 2004 · 4.91 FIP	29	SU	4.91	19.6%	8.0%	4.5%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	136	62
Kiko Calero R 2005 · 3.51 FIP	30	SU	3.51	22.7%	7.0%	2.6%	.252	3.23	23.3%	13.9%	99	-0.28	2.27	298	62

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	45	19.4%	5.0%	1.52	4.48
Casey Fien ('17)	1.4	58	21.0%	5.1%	1.46	4.42
Jamie Walker ('09)	2.2	55	16.7%	5.8%	1.49	4.13
Gabe White ('05)	2.9	57	19.0%	5.9%	1.51	4.51
Larry Casian ('90-'98, 0 WAR*)	1.2	40	14.7%*	6.8%*	1.25*	4.37*
Julio Navarro ('62-'70, 1 WAR*)	1.1	53	21.7%*	7.8%*	1.55*	4.13*
Steve Kealey ('68-'73, -1 WAR*)	1.1	54	18.5%*	7.2%*	1.32*	5.26*