Patrick Sandoval

Patrick Sandoval P Boston Red Sox

Age 29 LHP 6'3" / 190 lbs MLB Svc 5.0 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 1.3 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION79 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 101109vR 117

ERA4.03

FIP4.02

K%20.8%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%10.4%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 87 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5555

CTRL4040

CMD4545

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3793.6

Whiff%

p5425.9%

p5222.5%

xwOBA vs

p190.349

CH+2.9 (28%)

SL+0.9 (29%)

SI (17%)

CU (9%)

FB-9.6 (33%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2019

Service 5.866 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.7M	+0.1	$0.3M	-$0.5M
Totals		$0.7M		$0.3M	-$0.5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	18	ROK MLE	GCL Astros	6	6	13	67	11	4	1	100%	2.2	11.2%	7.5%	3.7%	2.1%	6.07	4.25	—
2015	18	ROK RAW	GCL Astros	6	6	13	67	11	4	1	100%	2.2	16.4%	6.0%	10.4%	1.5%	6.07	3.33	—
2016	19	ROK MLE	Greeneville Astros	13	8	53	229	51	25	4	62%	4.1	15.1%	13.6%	1.5%	2.4%	5.30	4.89	—
2016	19	ROK RAW	Greeneville Astros	13	8	53	229	51	25	4	62%	4.1	22.3%	10.9%	11.4%	1.7%	5.30	3.57	—
2017	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	7	43	190	50	17	1	70%	4.3	20.1%	10.7%	9.4%	0.6%	4.22	3.11	—
2017	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	7	43	190	50	17	1	70%	4.3	26.3%	8.9%	17.4%	0.5%	4.22	2.26	—
2018	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	20	122	482	145	29	5	77%	4.7	22.9%	6.9%	16.0%	1.4%	2.06	2.79	—
2018	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	20	122	482	145	29	5	77%	4.7	30.1%	6.0%	24.1%	1.0%	2.06	1.97	—
2019	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	28	120	554	140	61	14	93%	4.0	22.7%	11.5%	11.3%	2.6%	5.49	4.05	+1.2
2019	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	30	28	120	554	140	61	14	93%	4.0	25.3%	11.0%	14.3%	2.5%	5.49	3.81	+1.6
2020	23	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	9	6	37	159	33	12	10	67%	4.1	20.8%	7.5%	13.2%	6.2%	5.65	5.69	-0.3
2020	23	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	9	6	37	159	33	12	10	67%	4.1	20.8%	7.5%	13.2%	6.3%	5.65	5.83	-0.4
2021	24	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	17	14	87	363	94	36	11	82%	5.1	25.9%	9.9%	16.0%	3.0%	3.62	3.80	+1.1
2021	24	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	17	14	87	363	94	36	11	82%	5.1	25.9%	9.9%	16.0%	3.0%	3.62	3.82	+1.1
2022	25	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	27	27	149	638	151	60	8	100%	5.5	23.7%	9.4%	14.3%	1.2%	2.91	2.97	+3.6
2022	25	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	27	27	149	638	151	60	8	100%	5.5	23.7%	9.4%	14.3%	1.3%	2.91	2.98	+3.6
2023	26	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	28	28	145	652	128	72	12	100%	5.2	19.6%	11.0%	8.6%	1.8%	4.11	3.83	+1.9
2023	26	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	28	28	145	652	128	72	12	100%	5.2	19.6%	11.0%	8.6%	1.8%	4.11	3.83	+1.9
2023	26	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	28	28	145	652	128	72	12	100%	5.2	19.6%	11.0%	8.6%	1.8%	4.11	3.90	+1.7
2024	27	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	16	16	80	353	81	33	8	100%	5.0	22.9%	9.3%	13.6%	2.2%	5.08	3.57	+1.3
2024	27	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	16	16	80	353	81	33	8	100%	5.0	22.9%	9.3%	13.6%	2.2%	5.08	3.57	+1.3
2024	27	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	16	16	80	353	81	33	8	100%	5.0	22.9%	9.3%	13.6%	2.3%	5.08	3.61	+1.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			118	111	591	2587	586	259	61	94%	5.0	22.7%	10.0%	12.6%	2.4%	4.07	3.77	+8.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	29	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	19	19	79	355	79	40	8	100%	4.1	20.2%	11.2%	8.9%	2.2%	4.23	4.04	+0.8
YTD	29	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	19	19	79	355	79	40	8	100%	4.1	20.2%	11.2%	8.9%	2.2%	4.23	4.04	+0.8
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	29	AA RAW	BOS	2	2	8	27	11	2	1	100%	4.0	40.7%	7.4%	33.3%	3.7%	1.12	2.63	—
2026	29	AAA RAW	BOS	6	6	16	75	11	11	1	100%	2.6	14.7%	14.7%	0.0%	1.3%	4.60	4.45	—
2026	29	MLB RAW	BOS	11	11	55	253	57	27	6	100%	5.0	22.5%	10.7%	11.9%	2.4%	4.58	3.85	+0.7
SO FAR	29	MLB RAW	BOS	11	11	55	253	57	27	6	100%	5.0	22.5%	10.7%	11.9%	2.4%	4.58	3.85	+0.7
ROS	29	MLB MLE	BOS	1	1	8	33	7	4	1	100%	7.9	20.8%	10.5%	10.4%	2.5%	4.03	4.02	+0.1
ROS	29	MLB CTX	BOS	1	1	8	34	7	4	1	100%	8.0	20.8%	10.5%	10.4%	2.4%	4.00	3.99	+0.1
2026 TOT	29	MLB MLE	BOS	—	—	87	388	86	44	9	—	—	22.1%	11.2%	10.9%	2.3%	4.21	4.04	+0.8
FULL	29	MLB A+C	BOS	—	—	63	266	86	44	9	—	—	32.4%	16.4%	16.0%	3.3%	5.80	4.26	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	BOS	15	15	88	373	80	39	10	100%	5.9	21.3%	10.6%	10.8%	2.7%	4.40	4.48	+0.4
2028	31	MLB MLE	BOS	14	14	82	348	72	38	10	100%	5.9	20.6%	10.9%	9.7%	2.9%	4.58	4.71	+0.2
2029	32	MLB MLE	BOS	13	13	76	322	70	34	10	100%	5.9	21.8%	10.5%	11.3%	3.1%	4.65	4.69	+0.2
2030	33	MLB MLE	BOS	12	12	70	295	62	32	10	100%	5.8	20.9%	11.0%	10.0%	3.4%	4.84	4.97	-0.1
2027	30	MLB CTX	BOS	15	15	88	372	79	39	10	100%	5.9	21.3%	10.6%	10.8%	2.6%	4.36	4.44	+0.4
2028	31	MLB CTX	BOS	14	14	82	346	71	38	10	100%	5.9	20.6%	10.9%	9.7%	2.8%	4.54	4.67	+0.2
2029	32	MLB CTX	BOS	13	13	76	321	70	34	10	100%	5.8	21.8%	10.5%	11.3%	3.1%	4.61	4.65	+0.2
2030	33	MLB CTX	BOS	12	12	70	296	62	32	10	100%	5.8	20.9%	11.0%	10.0%	3.3%	4.79	4.92	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		173	166	916	3958	876	406	101	96%	5.3	22.1%	10.3%	11.9%	2.5%	4.24	3.93	+10.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		38	36	200	864	191	89	22	96%	5.3	22.1%	10.3%	11.9%	2.5%	4.24	3.93	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		201	179	926	4042	875	406	85	89%	4.6	21.7%	10.0%	11.6%	2.1%	4.03	3.70	+8.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	39	200	873	189	88	18	89%	4.6	21.7%	10.0%	11.6%	2.1%	4.03	3.70	+1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Patrick Sandoval (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.29	21.6%	10.0%	2.5%	—	4.62	21.2%	10.6%	247	+0.33	—	—	—
Yusei Kikuchi L 2020 · 3.23 FIP	29	SP	3.23	24.2%	10.3%	1.6%	.306	4.42	25.7%	16.5%	425	+1.19	3.23	1,041	68
Tyler Skaggs L 2019 · 3.64 FIP	28	SP	3.64	23.3%	8.4%	2.6%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.18	372	65
Ryan Bollinger L 2018 · 3.56 FIP	27	SP	3.56	17.1%	7.5%	1.7%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	112	63
Marlon Arias L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	30	SP	4.32	16.8%	12.2%	2.0%	.330	3.73	17.2%	9.5%	22	-0.59	3.73	154	63
Aríel Miranda L 2018 · 4.21 FIP	29	SP	4.21	17.9%	12.8%	1.8%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	431	62
Orlando Lara L 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SP	4.29	15.2%	10.3%	2.1%	.348	4.08	14.2%	7.2%	230	-0.21	3.85	426	62
Alejandro Astorga L 2016 · 3.72 FIP	29	SP	3.72	15.0%	9.1%	1.4%	.290	4.01	14.4%	6.2%	116	+0.29	3.72	311	62
Brandon Mann L 2016 · 4.72 FIP	32	SP	4.72	19.4%	7.9%	4.1%	.320	3.97	19.0%	7.6%	128	-0.75	3.59	190	62
Irwin Delgado L 2017 · 3.54 FIP	28	SP	3.54	18.7%	10.2%	1.3%	.345	4.73	15.6%	6.1%	89	+1.19	3.52	383	61
John Lamb L 2018 · 4.64 FIP	28	SP	4.64	22.5%	7.2%	4.6%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.38	390	60
Tomas Solis L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	32	SP	4.20	15.0%	6.2%	2.9%	.264	5.09	12.0%	3.7%	159	+0.89	4.20	327	60
Jeff Locke L 2017 · 4.18 FIP	29	SP	4.18	17.1%	7.9%	2.8%	.345	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	328	60
Carlos Teller L 2016 · 4.86 FIP	29	SP-	4.86	14.3%	10.7%	2.9%	.297	4.74	12.6%	1.1%	148	-0.12	3.75	333	60
Christian Friedrich L 2016 · 3.96 FIP	29	SP	3.96	17.6%	8.8%	2.2%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	188	60
Danny Duffy L 2018 · 4.61 FIP	29	SP	4.61	20.4%	10.0%	3.6%	.301	4.35	22.6%	14.1%	248	-0.26	3.29	915	60
Everett Teaford L 2015 · 4.42 FIP	31	SP-	4.42	13.9%	7.6%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	103	59
James Gillheeney L 2015 · 3.79 FIP	27	SP-	3.79	14.4%	8.0%	1.6%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	129	59
Arturo Lopez L 2015 · 4.80 FIP	32	SP	4.80	13.7%	6.2%	3.8%	.301	4.80	10.9%	4.2%	217	+0.00	4.34	445	58
Alejandro Soto L 2015 · 4.41 FIP	29	SP	4.41	12.8%	7.0%	2.7%	.367	4.07	14.6%	9.1%	128	-0.34	3.96	280	58
John Gast L 2015 · 3.96 FIP	26	SP	3.96	14.1%	7.9%	1.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	122	58

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	82	21.3%	10.6%	1.12	4.53
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Archie Bradley ('21)	2.2	74	23.2%	9.8%	0.85	3.93
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91