Patrick Sandoval P Worcester Red Sox
Age 29 LHP 6'3" / 190 lbs AAA Svc 5.0 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 1.2 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION28 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 98108vR 117
ERA4.32
FIP4.32
K%21.6%
BB%10.0%
K-BB%11.7%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 93 IP
K: -0.4 runs (Runs saved by strikeouts vs lg-avg K%)-0KBB: -1.4 runs (Runs saved by walk suppression vs lg-avg BB%)-1BBCONTACT: -1.0 runs (Runs saved on contact quality (HR suppression) vs lg)-1CONTACTSTAM: +11.1 runs (Replacement credit for innings volume)+11STAMTotal WAR: +0.87 (93 IP)+0.9WAR
1.10.70.32628
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Scouting Grades
OFP45
STUF5555
CTRL4040
CMD4545
K†5050
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p3893.7
Whiff%
p5826.5%
K%
p5422.9%
xwOBA vs
p390.325
CH+2.9 (28%)
SL+0.9 (29%)
SI (17%)
CU (9%)
FB-9.6 (33%)
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   Arb-3
MLB Debut   2019
Service   5.866 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2026
First FA Year   2027
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026ROSExt$4M+0.4$1M-$2M
Totals $4M $1M -$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

YearAge LvlTeam GGSIPBF KBBHR GS%IP/G K%BB%K-BB%HR% ERAFIP WAR
201518ROKGCL Astros6613671141100%2.211.2%7.5%3.7%2.1%6.074.25
201518ROKGCL Astros6613671141100%2.216.4%6.0%10.4%1.5%6.073.33
201619ROKGreeneville Astros138532295125462%4.115.1%13.6%1.5%2.4%5.304.89
201619ROKGreeneville Astros138532295125462%4.122.3%10.9%11.4%1.7%5.303.57
201720MIX2 levels107431905017170%4.320.1%10.7%9.4%0.6%4.223.06
201720MIX2 levels107431905017170%4.326.3%8.9%17.4%0.5%4.222.26
201821MIX3 levels262012248214529577%4.722.9%6.9%16.0%1.4%2.062.81
201821MIX3 levels262012248214529577%4.730.1%6.0%24.1%1.0%2.061.97
201922MIX3 levels3028120554140611493%4.022.7%11.5%11.3%2.6%5.494.04+1.9
201922MIX3 levels3028120554140611493%4.025.3%11.0%14.3%2.5%5.493.81+2.2
202023MLBLos Angeles Angels963715933121067%4.120.8%7.5%13.2%6.5%5.655.88-0.6
202023MLBLos Angeles Angels963715933121067%4.120.8%7.5%13.2%6.3%5.655.83-0.5
202124MLBLos Angeles Angels17148736394361182%5.125.9%9.9%16.0%3.1%3.623.89+1.3
202124MLBLos Angeles Angels17148736394361182%5.125.9%9.9%16.0%3.0%3.623.82+1.3
202225MLBLos Angeles Angels2727149638151608100%5.523.7%9.4%14.3%1.3%2.913.01+4.2
202225MLBLos Angeles Angels2727149638151608100%5.523.7%9.4%14.3%1.3%2.912.98+4.2
202326MLBLos Angeles Angels28281456521287212100%5.219.6%11.0%8.6%1.9%4.113.89+2.6
202326MLBLos Angeles Angels28281456521287212100%5.219.6%11.0%8.6%1.8%4.113.90+2.5
202427MLBLos Angeles Angels16168035381338100%5.022.9%9.3%13.6%2.3%5.083.64+1.2
202427MLBLos Angeles Angels16168035381338100%5.022.9%9.3%13.6%2.3%5.083.61+1.3
▸ 2026 Season
202629MLBBoston Red Sox992812127142100%3.112.9%15.4%-2.5%1.5%3.214.77-0.1
ROS29MLBBOS11116527459277100%5.921.6%10.0%11.7%2.6%4.324.32+0.3
ROS29MLBBOS11116527459277100%5.921.6%10.0%11.7%2.6%4.334.33+0.3
2026 TOT29MLBBOS933958641921.8%10.5%11.4%2.3%3.994.45+0.9
2026 FULL29MLBBOS692928641929.5%14.1%15.4%3.1%5.364.10+0.5
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202730MLBBOS151588373783810100%5.920.9%10.3%10.7%2.8%4.454.53+0.6
202831MLBBOS141482348703710100%5.920.2%10.6%9.6%3.0%4.644.76+0.3
202730MLBBOS151588372783810100%5.920.9%10.3%10.7%2.8%4.464.54+0.6
202831MLBBOS141482346703710100%5.920.2%10.6%9.6%3.0%4.654.77+0.2
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career15314677633487423358395%5.122.2%10.0%12.1%2.5%4.153.86+14.0
/ 200 IP3938200863191862195%5.122.2%10.0%12.1%2.5%4.153.86+3.6
Career19116987538088203858288%4.621.5%10.1%11.4%2.1%3.993.74+17.0
/ 200 IP4439200870187881988%4.621.5%10.1%11.4%2.1%3.993.74+3.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Profile at Match Age Next 3 Yrs Career
CompAgeRole FIPK%BB%HR/BFBABIP FIPK%K-BB%IP ΔFIPLow FIPIPMatch
Patrick Sandoval (OGILVIE) 4.32 21.6%10.0%2.6% 4.64 20.6%10.1%171 +0.32
Ryan Bollinger L 2024 · 3.53 FIP 27 SP 3.53 17.1%7.5%1.7%.290 3.53 112 63
Alejandro Astorga L 2026 · 3.78 FIP 29 SP 3.78 15.0%9.1%1.5%.290 4.17 14.4%6.2%116 +0.39 3.78 311 62
Shinnosuke Ogasawara L 2025 · 3.98 FIP 28 SP 3.98 22.0%6.8%3.4%.279 3.98 122 62
Marlon Arias L 2027 · 4.14 FIP 30 SP 4.14 16.8%12.2%1.7%.330 3.89 17.2%9.5%22 -0.25 3.89 154 62
Brandon Mann L 2029 · 4.73 FIP 32 SP 4.73 19.4%7.9%4.1%.320 4.14 19.0%7.6%128 -0.59 3.60 190 62
Orlando Lara L 2027 · 4.00 FIP 30 SP 4.00 15.2%10.3%1.6%.348 4.09 14.2%7.2%230 +0.09 3.82 426 62
Nico Tellache L 2025 · 4.65 FIP 28 SP 4.65 13.4%8.6%2.9%.276 3.89 160 61
Everett Teaford L 2028 · 4.36 FIP 31 SP- 4.36 13.9%7.6%2.7%.324 4.36 103 61
Tomas Solis L 2029 · 4.35 FIP 32 SP 4.35 15.0%6.2%3.1%.264 5.50 12.0%3.7%159 +1.15 4.35 327 61
Danny Duffy L 2026 · 4.59 FIP 29 SP 4.59 20.4%10.0%3.5%.301 4.33 22.6%14.1%248 -0.26 3.29 915 60
Carlos Teller L 2026 · 5.14 FIP 29 SP- 5.14 14.3%10.7%3.4%.297 4.77 12.6%1.1%148 -0.37 3.72 333 60
Yusei Kikuchi L 2026 · 3.25 FIP 29 SP 3.25 24.2%10.3%1.6%.306 4.45 25.7%16.5%425 +1.20 3.25 1,019 60
Irwin Delgado L 2025 · 3.47 FIP 28 SP 3.47 18.7%10.2%1.2%.345 4.78 15.6%6.1%89 +1.31 3.42 383 60
James Gillheeney L 2024 · 3.80 FIP 27 SP- 3.80 14.4%8.0%1.6%.300 3.80 129 60
Arturo Lopez L 2029 · 4.71 FIP 32 SP 4.71 13.7%6.2%3.6%.301 4.61 10.9%4.2%217 -0.10 4.24 445 60
Alejandro Soto L 2026 · 4.16 FIP 29 SP 4.16 12.8%7.0%2.3%.367 4.34 14.6%9.1%128 +0.18 3.97 280 59
Kramer Sneed L 2024 · 4.29 FIP 27 SP 4.29 13.2%8.2%2.3%.265 4.29 116 58
John Gast L 2023 · 3.80 FIP 26 SP 3.80 14.1%7.9%1.6%.339 3.80 122 58
Jo-Jo Reyes L 2027 · 3.53 FIP 30 SP 3.53 14.9%6.4%1.6%.326 3.42 16.3%10.7%90 -0.11 3.06 240 58
Darin Gorski L 2025 · 4.39 FIP 28 SP 4.39 15.0%9.8%2.4%.299 4.39 206 58

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

PlayerYrsIP/yrK%BB%HR/9ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION38821.0%10.3%1.074.46
Ian Anderson ('22)39122.5%10.4%0.963.97
James Kaprielian ('23)310520.5%9.6%1.264.58
Tyson Ross ('19)410721.3%10.8%0.844.31
Kyle Wright ('23)38322.4%8.9%1.123.97
Nate Karns ('17)39624.2%9.3%1.224.24
Tyler Skaggs ('19)48522.9%8.2%1.094.24