Nick Neidert prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Nick Neidert P Iowa Cubs

Age 29 RHP 6'1" / 202 lbs AAA peak 0.6 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 73 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137129vR 121

ERA5.20

FIP5.24

K%18.1%

BB%11.9%

K-BB%6.1%

ROS IP73

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 73 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL2525

CMD2020

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1191.7

Whiff%

p1019.1%

p1013.4%

xwOBA vs

p100.370

CH+0.6

FB+0.5

SL-1.3

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	18	ROK MLE	AZL Mariners	11	11	35	135	23	9	1	100%	3.2	11.6%	8.3%	3.3%	1.0%	1.53	3.75	—
2015	18	ROK RAW	AZL Mariners	11	11	35	135	23	9	1	100%	3.2	17.0%	6.7%	10.4%	0.7%	1.53	2.93	—
2016	19	A MLE	Clinton LumberKings	19	19	91	355	69	13	7	100%	4.8	14.4%	4.3%	10.1%	2.6%	2.57	3.87	—
2016	19	A RAW	Clinton LumberKings	19	19	91	355	69	13	7	100%	4.8	19.4%	3.7%	15.8%	2.0%	2.57	3.01	—
2017	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	128	525	122	22	11	100%	5.1	18.0%	4.8%	13.2%	2.8%	3.45	3.73	—
2017	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	128	525	122	22	11	100%	5.1	23.2%	4.2%	19.0%	2.1%	3.45	2.83	—
2018	21	AA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	26	26	153	611	154	31	17	100%	5.9	20.4%	5.6%	14.8%	3.2%	3.24	3.84	—
2018	21	AA RAW	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	26	26	153	611	154	31	17	100%	5.9	25.2%	5.1%	20.1%	2.8%	3.24	3.14	—
2019	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	13	13	54	243	46	27	5	100%	4.2	17.4%	12.4%	5.1%	2.1%	4.67	4.37	—
2019	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	13	13	54	243	46	27	5	100%	4.2	18.9%	11.1%	7.8%	2.1%	4.67	4.10	—
2020	23	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	4	0	8	34	4	2	1	0%	2.1	11.8%	5.9%	5.9%	2.9%	5.40	4.47	+0.0
2020	23	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	4	0	8	34	4	2	1	0%	2.1	11.8%	5.9%	5.9%	2.9%	5.40	4.42	+0.0
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	20	104	460	73	43	12	91%	4.7	14.5%	9.6%	4.9%	3.1%	3.97	4.77	+0.2
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	20	104	460	73	43	12	91%	4.7	15.9%	9.3%	6.5%	2.6%	3.97	4.43	+0.6
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	9	51	204	51	9	7	60%	3.4	23.0%	5.1%	17.8%	3.5%	2.12	3.72	+0.7
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	9	51	204	51	9	7	60%	3.4	25.0%	4.4%	20.6%	3.4%	2.12	3.41	+0.9
2023	26	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	27	24	107	486	86	40	18	89%	4.0	15.2%	7.4%	7.8%	4.2%	5.64	5.07	—
2023	26	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	27	24	107	486	86	40	18	89%	4.0	15.2%	7.4%	7.8%	4.2%	5.64	5.07	—
2023	26	AAA RAW	Iowa Cubs	27	24	107	486	86	40	18	89%	4.0	17.7%	8.2%	9.5%	3.7%	5.64	4.80	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			13	8	49	211	28	24	6	62%	3.8	13.3%	11.4%	1.9%	2.8%	4.59	5.02	-0.1
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	29	MLB	CHC	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.1%	11.9%	6.1%	3.2%	5.20	5.24	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	CHC	12	12	69	291	52	35	10	100%	5.8	17.9%	12.0%	6.0%	3.4%	5.25	5.35	-0.3
2028	31	MLB MLE	CHC	11	11	64	271	48	33	10	100%	5.8	17.6%	12.1%	5.5%	3.6%	5.37	5.51	-0.4
2027	30	MLB CTX	CHC	4	4	25	106	19	13	4	100%	6.2	17.9%	12.0%	6.0%	3.4%	5.25	5.35	-0.1
2028	31	MLB CTX	CHC	6	6	35	148	26	18	5	100%	5.8	17.6%	12.1%	5.5%	3.6%	5.37	5.51	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		23	18	110	468	73	55	15	78%	4.8	15.7%	11.7%	4.0%	3.2%	5.00	5.03	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		42	33	200	852	133	100	27	78%	4.7	15.7%	11.7%	4.0%	3.2%	5.00	5.03	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		162	147	731	3053	520	208	93	91%	4.5	17.0%	6.8%	10.2%	3.0%	3.62	4.20	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	40	200	835	142	57	25	91%	4.5	17.0%	6.8%	10.2%	3.0%	3.62	4.20	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nick Neidert (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.24	18.1%	11.9%	3.2%	—	5.43	17.7%	5.7%	133	+0.19	—	—	—
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	79
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	77
Daniel Guerrero R 2016 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP	4.81	12.4%	11.6%	2.3%	.328	4.93	11.7%	2.0%	175	+0.12	4.61	269	76
Samuel Deduno R 2012 · 5.22 FIP	29	SP	5.22	16.4%	15.3%	2.9%	.260	3.94	16.6%	7.2%	230	-1.28	2.99	327	75
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	74
Reinier Roibal R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	30	SP	4.91	17.5%	11.8%	3.3%	.426	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	133	74
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	72
Patrick Johnson R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	30	SP	4.14	15.7%	9.3%	2.2%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	248	72
Robert Ellis R 2001 · 4.84 FIP	30	SP	4.84	9.9%	7.7%	2.9%	.287	8.08	9.0%	-2.2%	18	+3.24	4.84	110	70
Marco Quevedo R 2016 · 4.57 FIP	29	SP	4.57	13.6%	6.2%	3.3%	.258	5.02	11.5%	3.2%	107	+0.45	4.13	300	69
Rolando Valdez R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	29	SP	4.07	13.3%	5.9%	2.4%	.301	3.78	13.2%	7.9%	176	-0.29	3.06	258	69
Josh Zeid R 2016 · 5.01 FIP	29	SP	5.01	15.4%	11.7%	3.2%	.278	5.35	18.3%	7.5%	102	+0.34	4.00	313	68
Tyler Herron R 2016 · 4.40 FIP	29	SP	4.40	13.4%	6.9%	2.9%	.389	4.02	16.4%	7.7%	60	-0.38	4.02	117	68
Andres Ivan Meza R 2015 · 4.45 FIP	28	SP	4.45	10.9%	5.6%	2.9%	.322	4.14	12.5%	4.0%	85	-0.31	4.14	275	68
Kohei Arihara R 2022 · 4.58 FIP	29	SP-	4.58	16.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	135	68
Erik Hiljus R 2002 · 6.07 FIP	29	SP	6.07	14.1%	9.7%	5.3%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	3.35	112	68
Jose Samayoa R 2019 · 4.05 FIP	29	SP	4.05	19.4%	7.0%	3.1%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	262	67
Jordan Cooper R 2015 · 5.01 FIP	26	SP	5.01	9.2%	10.2%	2.5%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	5.01	106	67
Tim Adleman R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	29	SP-	5.35	20.3%	9.4%	5.1%	.276	4.30	22.8%	15.0%	117	-1.05	3.63	605	67
Miguel Ruiz R 2015 · 5.77 FIP	29	SP-	5.77	8.8%	8.0%	4.4%	.346	5.60	10.6%	-0.4%	53	-0.17	5.60	117	67

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	64	17.0%	12.0%	1.28	5.14
C.J. Nitkowski ('05)	2.4	68	15.8%	11.9%	1.07	5.37
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Mike Matthews ('05)	1.2	61	16.3%	11.3%	1.07	4.54
Justin Miller ('10)	1.9	63	18.1%	11.3%	1.17	4.82
Luther Hackman ('03)	1.1	71	13.3%	10.9%	1.10	5.09
Jose Paniagua ('03)	1.8	60	17.3%	11.8%	1.01	4.49