Thaddeus Ward

P Norfolk Tides

Age 30 RHP 6'3" / 211 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	26	MIX4 levels	32	6	58	5.25	5.35	18.8%	12.6%	-0.5	K 18.8% · BB 16.9% · FIP 6.06
2024	27	AAAWSH	28	28	120	5.64	5.06	19.3%	16.8%	—	K 16.6% · BB 15.1% · FIP 5.05
2025	28	AAABAL	32	23	120	5.34	4.46	22.7%	16.3%	—	K 19.6% · BB 14.7% · FIP 4.53
2027PROJ	30	MLBBAL	14	14	81	5.59	5.64	18.5%	16.4%	-0.7
2028PROJ37% MLB	31	MLBBAL	5	5	28	5.46	5.46	20.1%	15.0%	-0.2
2029PROJ55% MLB	32	MLBBAL	6	6	39	5.53	5.63	19.6%	15.0%	-0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.5 · Next 3 projected WAR -1.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2023

Whiff%35

FB Velo34

K%27

xwOBA vs10

CompsDerek Eitel (age 29) · Daniel Guerrero (age 31) · Reinier Roibal (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 140132vR 123

ERA5.59

FIP5.64

K%18.5%

BB%16.4%

K-BB%2.1%

Proj IP81

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 81 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL3030

CMD3535

K†4550

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3493.4

Whiff%

p3523.2%

p2718.8%

xwOBA vs

p100.361

CH+0.6

FB+0.6

CT-1.5

SL-3.2

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	126	525	157	57	6	100%	5.1	22.5%	12.6%	9.9%	1.3%	2.14	3.53	—
2019	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	126	525	157	57	6	100%	5.1	29.9%	10.9%	19.0%	1.1%	2.14	2.59	—
2021	24	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	2	2	8	39	11	5	0	100%	4.0	28.2%	12.8%	15.4%	0.0%	5.62	2.34	—
2021	24	AA RAW	Portland Sea Dogs	2	2	8	39	11	5	0	100%	4.0	28.2%	12.8%	15.4%	0.0%	5.62	2.23	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	13	13	51	213	66	19	3	100%	3.9	23.9%	11.1%	12.8%	2.6%	2.28	3.90	—
2022	25	MIX RAW	4 levels	13	13	51	213	66	19	3	100%	3.9	31.0%	8.9%	22.1%	1.4%	2.28	2.40	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	32	6	58	261	49	33	10	19%	1.8	18.8%	16.9%	1.9%	4.4%	5.25	6.06	-1.0
2023	26	MIX RAW	4 levels	32	6	58	261	49	33	10	19%	1.8	18.8%	12.6%	6.1%	3.8%	5.25	5.35	-0.5
2024	27	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	28	28	120	554	107	93	13	100%	4.3	16.6%	15.1%	1.5%	2.6%	5.64	5.05	—
2024	27	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	28	28	120	554	107	93	13	100%	4.3	16.6%	15.1%	1.5%	2.6%	5.64	5.05	—
2024	27	AAA RAW	Rochester Red Wings	28	28	120	554	107	93	13	100%	4.3	19.3%	16.8%	2.5%	2.3%	5.64	5.06	—
2025	28	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	32	23	120	576	131	94	11	72%	3.7	19.6%	14.7%	4.9%	2.2%	5.34	4.53	—
2025	28	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	32	23	120	576	131	94	11	72%	3.7	19.6%	14.7%	4.9%	2.2%	5.34	4.53	—
2025	28	AAA RAW	Norfolk Tides	32	23	120	576	131	94	11	72%	3.7	22.7%	16.3%	6.4%	1.9%	5.34	4.46	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			26	0	35	160	30	27	7	0%	1.4	18.8%	16.9%	1.9%	4.4%	6.37	6.27	-0.7
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	BAL	14	14	81	342	63	56	10	100%	5.8	18.5%	16.4%	2.1%	3.0%	5.59	5.64	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	BAL	13	13	76	320	64	48	10	100%	5.8	20.1%	15.0%	5.1%	3.2%	5.46	5.46	-0.5
2029	32	MLB MLE	BAL	12	12	70	296	58	44	10	100%	5.8	19.6%	15.0%	4.5%	3.5%	5.53	5.63	-0.6
2028	31	MLB CTX	BAL	5	5	28	118	24	18	4	100%	5.6	20.1%	15.0%	5.1%	3.2%	5.46	5.46	-0.2
2029	32	MLB CTX	BAL	6	6	39	165	32	25	6	100%	6.5	19.6%	15.0%	4.5%	3.5%	5.53	5.63	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		37	11	102	441	86	69	16	30%	2.8	19.4%	15.7%	3.7%	3.7%	5.80	5.50	-1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		73	22	200	866	169	136	31	30%	2.7	19.4%	15.7%	3.7%	3.7%	5.80	5.50	-2.2
Career	—	MLE		132	97	483	2168	434	307	51	73%	3.7	20.0%	14.2%	5.8%	2.4%	4.25	4.50	-1.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	40	200	897	179	127	21	73%	3.7	20.0%	14.2%	5.8%	2.4%	4.25	4.50	-1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Thaddeus Ward (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.64	18.5%	16.4%	3.0%	—	5.54	19.8%	4.8%	146	-0.10	—	—	—
Derek Eitel R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	29	SP-	4.72	17.2%	16.0%	1.9%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	138	66
Daniel Guerrero R 2016 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP	4.81	12.4%	11.6%	2.3%	.328	4.93	11.7%	2.0%	175	+0.12	4.61	269	62
Reinier Roibal R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	30	SP	4.91	17.5%	11.8%	3.3%	.426	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	133	61
Luis Mateo R 2019 · 5.55 FIP	29	SP-	5.55	8.6%	13.4%	2.7%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	160	60
David Fletcher R 2024 · 5.67 FIP	30	SP-	5.67	7.5%	10.3%	3.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	5.67	100	60
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	60
Alex Caldera R 2016 · 4.54 FIP	30	SP	4.54	11.9%	11.1%	1.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.54	120	59
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	59
Eddie Gamboa R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SP-	4.80	13.7%	17.4%	1.2%	.260	4.36	15.9%	4.9%	259	-0.44	2.92	385	59
Bryan Brickhouse R 2022 · 4.78 FIP	30	SP-	4.78	18.8%	11.7%	3.2%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	214	58
Manny Barreda R 2019 · 5.21 FIP	30	SP	5.21	18.1%	9.5%	4.4%	.317	3.34	20.1%	12.9%	40	-1.87	3.30	376	58
Travis Driskill R 2002 · 4.95 FIP	30	SP-	4.95	13.2%	8.0%	3.6%	.291	4.26	15.3%	12.0%	48	-0.69	4.26	181	57
Mark Appel R 2021 · 5.90 FIP	30	SP-	5.90	15.6%	15.6%	3.9%	.260	4.22	18.5%	8.1%	40	-1.68	4.22	363	57
Aaron Wilkerson R 2019 · 4.67 FIP	30	SP-	4.67	20.9%	9.8%	3.8%	.291	3.33	24.6%	19.0%	112	-1.34	2.75	902	56
Alfonso Sanchez R 2017 · 4.51 FIP	29	SW	4.51	12.5%	9.8%	2.2%	.346	7.58	8.6%	1.4%	39	+3.07	4.51	224	56
Walter Silva R 2009 · 5.72 FIP	32	SP	5.72	9.1%	12.4%	3.3%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	453	56
Miguel Ruiz R 2015 · 5.77 FIP	29	SP-	5.77	8.8%	8.0%	4.4%	.346	5.60	10.6%	-0.4%	53	-0.17	5.60	117	56
Tim Adleman R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	29	SP-	5.35	20.3%	9.4%	5.1%	.276	4.30	22.8%	15.0%	117	-1.05	3.63	605	55
Jose A. Flores R 2018 · 4.77 FIP	29	SP-	4.77	13.7%	10.3%	2.8%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	237	55
Deck McGuire R 2018 · 5.28 FIP	29	SW	5.28	18.4%	13.2%	3.8%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	622	54

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	66	19.3%	15.8%	1.31	5.64
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Paul Giel ('54-'61, -4 WAR*)	1.2	60	20.2%*	12.9%*	1.20*	5.80*