Garrett Davila
P
Harrisburg Senators
+0.4
WAR
Age 29
LHP
6'2" / 180 lbs
AA
peak 0.4 · 2026
ERA4.41
FIP4.41
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.2%
BB%10.2%
K-BB%12.0%
IP64
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2026
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 19 | ROK | Burlington Royals | 12 | 12 | 65 | 268 | 55 | 27 | 2 | 14.0% | 12.6% | 1.0% | 2.77 | 4.09 | +0.7 |
| 2017 | 20 | A | Lexington Legends | 27 | 21 | 126 | 561 | 92 | 50 | 8 | 12.1% | 10.5% | 1.7% | 5.08 | 4.36 | +1.3 |
| 2018 | 21 | A | Lexington Legends | 25 | 18 | 107 | 467 | 84 | 49 | 22 | 13.3% | 12.4% | 5.9% | 4.21 | 6.77 | -1.8 |
| 2021 | 24 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 34 | 0 | 66 | 269 | 54 | 27 | 4 | 15.6% | 11.4% | 1.8% | 3.43 | 4.23 | +0.6 |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | Birmingham Barons | 29 | 11 | 89 | 401 | 88 | 47 | 7 | 17.8% | 12.9% | 2.0% | 4.97 | 4.33 | +0.9 |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | 29 | 24 | 126 | 576 | 121 | 60 | 23 | 18.3% | 11.0% | 4.0% | 6.55 | 5.16 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 27 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 44 | 0 | 62 | 254 | 70 | 17 | 3 | 22.3% | 7.4% | 1.8% | 3.63 | 3.13 | +1.3 |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 57 | 0 | 56 | 228 | 60 | 25 | 3 | 22.0% | 11.8% | 1.5% | 3.04 | 3.59 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 12 | 12 | 64 | 269 | 60 | 27 | 7 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 2.8% | 4.41 | 4.41 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | WSH | 11 | 11 | 62 | 261 | 58 | 27 | 7 | 22.1% | 10.2% | 2.8% | 4.44 | 4.46 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 60 | — | 60 | 252 | 55 | 26 | 7 | 22.0% | 10.3% | 2.9% | 4.49 | 4.53 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 57 | — | 57 | 242 | 53 | 25 | 7 | 21.8% | 10.4% | 3.0% | 4.55 | 4.60 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | WSH | 55 | — | 55 | 231 | 50 | 24 | 7 | 21.5% | 10.5% | 3.1% | 4.63 | 4.69 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 34 | MLB | WSH | 52 | — | 52 | 219 | 46 | 23 | 7 | 21.2% | 10.7% | 3.2% | 4.73 | 4.80 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 35 | MLB | WSH | 49 | — | 49 | 206 | 43 | 23 | 7 | 20.8% | 10.9% | 3.3% | 4.85 | 4.92 | +0.0 |
| 2033 | 36 | MLB | WSH | 46 | — | 46 | 193 | 39 | 22 | 7 | 20.4% | 11.2% | 3.4% | 4.98 | 5.06 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 257 | 86 | 697 | 3024 | 493 | 342 | 84 | 16.3% | 11.3% | 2.8% | 4.53 | 4.69 | +4.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 74 | 25 | 200 | 868 | 142 | 98 | 24 | 16.3% | 11.3% | 2.8% | 4.53 | 4.69 | +1.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Garrett Davila (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.41 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 2.8% | — | 4.53 | 22.0% | 11.7% | 179 | +0.12 | — | — | — |
| Jeremy Horst L 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.12 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.2% | .291 | 3.71 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.41 | 3.71 | 108 | 88 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.68 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 3.8% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.70 | 175 | 87 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2025 · 3.61 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.61 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.36 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.25 | 3.36 | 153 | 87 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.44 | 22.4% | 11.4% | 3.3% | .253 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.52 | 126 | 85 |
| Brandon Mann L 2029 · 4.73 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.73 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 4.1% | .320 | 3.99 | 19.0% | 7.6% | 128 | -0.74 | 3.59 | 190 | 84 |
| Mike Dunn L 2027 · 3.77 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.77 | 27.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .294 | 4.21 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 110 | +0.44 | 3.70 | 181 | 81 |
| Scott Alexander L 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.29 | 20.9% | 9.3% | 1.4% | .290 | 4.54 | 13.3% | 5.0% | 45 | +1.25 | 2.82 | 414 | 81 |
| Jake Diekman L 2026 · 3.23 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.23 | 26.7% | 11.3% | 1.7% | .241 | 3.08 | 28.6% | 15.8% | 115 | -0.15 | 2.32 | 455 | 81 |
| Brian Flynn L 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.49 | 17.7% | 10.1% | 2.9% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 277 | 79 |
| Josh Smoker L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.62 | 22.1% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .318 | 6.63 | 14.2% | 3.4% | 14 | +3.01 | 2.70 | 230 | 79 |
| Marlon Arias L 2027 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 16.8% | 12.2% | 2.0% | .330 | 3.73 | 17.2% | 9.5% | 22 | -0.57 | 3.73 | 154 | 78 |
| Edward Paredes L 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.47 | 24.1% | 13.0% | 1.4% | .225 | 3.55 | 23.7% | 14.0% | 86 | +0.08 | 2.37 | 130 | 78 |
| Buddy Boshers L 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.43 | 18.9% | 8.0% | 3.5% | .300 | 3.46 | 24.1% | 15.6% | 112 | -0.97 | 2.83 | 223 | 78 |
| Arturo Barradas L 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.42 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 1.8% | .288 | 3.24 | 16.1% | 9.5% | 34 | -0.18 | 3.24 | 163 | 78 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.66 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 2.2% | .342 | 2.89 | 20.6% | 17.2% | 29 | -0.77 | 2.89 | 101 | 78 |
| Keith Hessler L 2026 · 5.04 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.04 | 19.8% | 13.3% | 3.5% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.29 | 228 | 77 |
| Sammy Solís L 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.44 | 24.9% | 9.6% | 4.0% | .330 | 4.07 | 26.2% | 17.3% | 23 | -0.37 | 2.50 | 190 | 77 |
| Kyle Regnault L 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.83 | 27.6% | 9.7% | 3.4% | .367 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.87 | 204 | 76 |
| Tommy Layne L 2027 · 3.64 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.64 | 21.7% | 12.1% | 1.6% | .284 | 3.27 | 20.2% | 11.0% | 97 | -0.37 | 1.32 | 182 | 76 |
| Chasen Shreve L 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.95 | 24.4% | 11.1% | 2.7% | .269 | 4.54 | 23.9% | 13.0% | 108 | +0.59 | 3.79 | 470 | 76 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.