Ethan Small prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Ethan Small P Sacramento River Cats

Age 29 LHP 6'2" / 219 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 35 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 99107vR 115

ERA4.31

FIP4.31

K%24.0%

BB%9.6%

K-BB%14.4%

ROS IP35

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 35 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

CH-0.5

SL-0.9

FB-2.1

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	7	21	77	36	4	0	100%	3.0	33.7%	6.9%	26.8%	0.0%	0.86	1.13	—
2019	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	7	21	77	36	4	0	100%	3.0	46.8%	5.2%	41.6%	0.0%	0.86	0.24	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	18	77	316	92	42	4	100%	4.3	24.2%	14.5%	9.7%	1.6%	1.98	3.76	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	18	18	77	316	92	42	4	100%	4.3	29.1%	13.3%	15.8%	1.3%	1.98	3.02	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	23	109	479	121	66	9	79%	3.8	22.5%	13.7%	8.8%	2.1%	4.61	4.07	+1.1
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	23	109	479	121	66	9	79%	3.8	25.3%	13.8%	11.5%	1.9%	4.61	3.77	+1.5
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	2	55	237	67	26	6	5%	1.4	24.5%	10.1%	14.4%	2.8%	3.76	3.87	+0.4
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	2	55	237	67	26	6	5%	1.4	24.5%	10.1%	14.4%	2.8%	3.76	3.87	+0.4
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	2	55	237	67	26	6	5%	1.4	28.3%	11.0%	17.3%	2.5%	3.76	3.50	+0.7
2024	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	14	3	13	53	16	2	0	21%	0.9	30.2%	3.8%	26.4%	0.0%	4.85	1.03	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	14	3	13	53	16	2	0	21%	0.9	30.2%	3.8%	26.4%	0.0%	4.85	1.03	—
2024	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	14	3	13	53	16	2	0	21%	0.9	30.2%	3.8%	26.4%	0.0%	4.85	1.10	—
2025	28	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	7	0	6	29	6	5	2	0%	0.9	20.7%	17.2%	3.4%	6.9%	7.11	7.32	—
2025	28	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	7	0	6	29	6	5	2	0%	0.9	20.7%	17.2%	3.4%	6.9%	7.11	7.32	—
2025	28	AAA RAW	Sacramento River Cats	7	0	6	29	6	5	2	0%	0.9	20.7%	17.2%	3.4%	6.9%	7.11	7.68	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			4	2	10	56	13	10	2	50%	2.6	23.2%	17.9%	5.4%	3.6%	8.71	6.00	-0.1
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	29	MLB	SF	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	24.0%	9.6%	14.4%	3.0%	4.31	4.31	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	SF	31	0	33	139	33	14	4	0%	1.1	23.5%	9.8%	13.7%	3.2%	4.42	4.49	+0.0
2027	30	MLB CTX	SF	11	0	12	51	12	5	2	0%	1.1	23.5%	9.8%	13.7%	3.2%	4.42	4.49	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		16	2	22	107	25	15	4	12%	1.4	23.4%	14.0%	9.3%	3.4%	6.40	4.76	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		138	18	200	955	223	134	36	13%	1.4	23.4%	14.0%	9.3%	3.4%	6.40	4.76	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		115	53	282	1191	290	148	24	46%	2.5	24.4%	12.4%	12.0%	2.0%	3.51	3.70	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		82	38	200	845	206	105	17	46%	2.5	24.4%	12.4%	12.0%	2.0%	3.51	3.70	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ethan Small (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.31	24.0%	9.6%	3.0%	—	4.49	23.5%	13.7%	33	+0.18	—	—	—
Hector Hernandez L 2019 · 3.39 FIP	28	SW	3.39	20.2%	9.0%	1.5%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.17	121	70
Matt Whitehouse L 2019 · 4.07 FIP	28	SW	4.07	20.1%	10.9%	2.3%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	353	70
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	69
Tommy Phelps L 2003 · 3.39 FIP	29	SW	3.39	15.6%	8.0%	1.1%	.322	4.47	16.9%	8.9%	57	+1.08	3.39	120	67
John Rheinecker L 2007 · 5.13 FIP	28	SW	5.13	16.7%	10.9%	3.8%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	121	67
Ryan Verdugo L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	19.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.281	3.36	22.7%	17.3%	82	-0.25	3.36	153	66
Raul Valdes L 2010 · 4.02 FIP	32	SU	4.02	21.4%	9.9%	2.7%	.301	3.14	27.4%	22.5%	78	-0.88	2.29	160	65
Andy Otero L 2021 · 3.89 FIP	29	SP-	3.89	24.7%	6.2%	3.8%	.298	4.36	14.5%	5.6%	68	+0.47	2.86	200	64
Aaron Rozek L 2023 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP-	4.87	17.4%	8.8%	3.9%	.311	4.34	16.7%	9.5%	356	-0.53	3.68	579	64
Kelvin Marte L 2017 · 4.74 FIP	29	SW	4.74	16.1%	11.4%	2.8%	.300	5.25	12.0%	1.2%	71	+0.51	3.44	360	63
Tyler Alexander L 2021 · 5.27 FIP	29	SW	5.27	15.7%	10.7%	3.9%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	5.27	128	62
Randy Keisler L 2005 · 5.07 FIP	29	SW	5.07	16.4%	9.9%	3.8%	.295	5.51	6.5%	0.0%	17	+0.44	5.07	135	62
Edgar Olmos L 2017 · 3.64 FIP	27	SW	3.64	18.9%	9.7%	1.7%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	203	62
Justin Marks L 2017 · 3.83 FIP	29	SW	3.83	18.7%	11.0%	1.7%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	324	61
Chad Bell L 2018 · 4.38 FIP	29	SU	4.38	18.8%	7.4%	3.5%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	393	60
Kyle Hunter L 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SU	4.50	14.0%	6.1%	3.3%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	188	59
Miguel Pena L 2019 · 5.08 FIP	28	SW	5.08	16.0%	7.0%	4.4%	.369	—	—	—	—	—	2.98	282	59
Jimmy Reyes L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	28	SU	4.92	13.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.02	200	58
Kyle Regnault L 2018 · 3.82 FIP	29	SU	3.82	27.6%	9.7%	3.3%	.367	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	204	58
Brian Flynn L 2019 · 4.49 FIP	29	SW	4.49	17.7%	10.1%	2.9%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	295	58

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	39	23.7%	11.0%	1.22	4.94
Josh Lindblom ('21)	1.0	52	22.1%	9.6%	1.25	4.78
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
Scott Service ('04)	2.1	46	22.2%	9.9%	1.23	5.04
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Will Cunnane ('04)	1.4	46	18.9%	10.4%	1.25	5.26