Shane McClanahan

P Tampa Bay Rays

Age 30 LHP 6'3" / 210 lbs MLB Svc 4.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 1.7 · 2027 ILForty Man (40M)

Overview

MLBSP40M40-MANArb-2FA 2029

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	26	MLBTB	21	21	115	3.29	3.76	25.8%	8.7%	1.6
2025	28	MIX2 levels	3	3	3	10.80	9.70	26.3%	10.5%	—	K 26.3% · BB 10.5% · FIP 7.99
2026	29	MIX2 levels	25	25	121	3.27	3.36	21.8%	7.9%	2.3	K 21.8% · BB 8.0% · FIP 3.44
2027PROJ	30	MLBTB	16	16	96	3.90	3.91	23.1%	8.0%	1.1
2028PROJ	31	MLBTB	18	18	107	4.00	4.10	22.4%	8.4%	1.0
2029PROJ	32	MLBTB	16	16	99	4.21	4.36	21.6%	8.8%	0.6

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.9 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2028Service4.919First FA2029

2027Arb-2$6M2028Arb-3$8M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo65

Whiff%60

K%47

xwOBA vs44

CompsJorge Castillo (age 33) · Ryan Bollinger (age 27) · Tomas Solis (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 92100vR 108

ERA3.90

FIP3.91

K%23.1%

BB%8.0%

K-BB%15.1%

Proj IP96

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 96 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6565

CTRL5555

CMD6060

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6595.6

Whiff%

p6026.8%

p4721.8%

xwOBA vs

p440.318

SL+2.3 (18%)

CU (15%)

FB-0.9 (38%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2021

Service 4.919 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-2	$6M	+1.1	$9M	+$3M
2028	Arb-3	$8M	+1.0	$7M	+$0.0M
Totals		$14M		$16M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	21	ROK MLE	Princeton Rays	4	4	7	24	13	1	0	100%	1.8	54.2%	4.2%	50.0%	0.0%	0.00	-0.95	—
2018	21	ROK RAW	Princeton Rays	4	4	7	24	13	1	0	100%	1.8	54.2%	4.2%	50.0%	0.0%	0.00	-0.19	—
2019	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	22	121	504	154	45	7	92%	5.0	23.3%	10.4%	12.9%	1.7%	3.36	3.36	—
2019	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	22	121	504	154	45	7	92%	5.0	30.6%	8.9%	21.6%	1.4%	3.36	2.42	—
2021	24	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	25	25	123	517	141	37	14	100%	4.9	27.3%	7.2%	20.1%	2.8%	3.43	3.23	+2.5
2021	24	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	25	25	123	517	141	37	14	100%	4.9	27.3%	7.2%	20.1%	2.7%	3.43	3.19	+2.6
2022	25	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	28	28	166	641	194	37	19	100%	5.9	30.3%	5.8%	24.5%	3.0%	2.54	2.95	+4.1
2022	25	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	28	28	166	641	194	37	19	100%	5.9	30.3%	5.8%	24.5%	3.0%	2.54	2.92	+4.2
2023	26	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	21	21	115	469	121	41	15	100%	5.5	25.8%	8.7%	17.1%	3.3%	3.29	3.83	+1.5
2023	26	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	21	21	115	469	121	41	15	100%	5.5	25.8%	8.7%	17.1%	3.2%	3.29	3.76	+1.6
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	3	3	3	19	5	2	2	100%	1.1	26.3%	10.5%	15.8%	10.5%	10.80	7.99	—
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	3	3	3	19	5	2	2	100%	1.1	26.3%	10.5%	15.8%	10.5%	10.80	7.99	—
2025	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	3	3	3	19	5	2	2	100%	1.1	26.3%	10.5%	15.8%	10.5%	10.80	9.70	—
2026	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	121	496	108	39	10	100%	4.8	21.8%	8.0%	13.8%	2.1%	3.27	3.44	+2.2
2026	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	121	496	108	39	10	100%	4.8	21.8%	8.0%	13.8%	2.1%	3.27	3.44	+2.2
2026	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	121	496	108	39	10	100%	4.8	21.8%	7.9%	13.9%	2.0%	3.27	3.36	+2.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			98	98	523	2114	562	154	58	100%	5.3	26.6%	7.3%	19.3%	2.7%	3.10	3.28	+10.5
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	TB	16	16	96	405	94	33	10	100%	6.0	23.1%	8.0%	15.1%	2.5%	3.90	3.91	+1.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	TB	18	18	107	451	101	38	12	100%	5.9	22.4%	8.4%	14.0%	2.7%	4.04	4.14	+1.0
2029	32	MLB MLE	TB	16	16	99	417	90	37	12	100%	6.2	21.6%	8.8%	12.8%	3.0%	4.25	4.40	+0.6
2030	33	MLB MLE	TB	15	15	91	383	79	35	12	100%	6.0	20.7%	9.2%	11.5%	3.2%	4.51	4.68	+0.2
2031	34	MLB MLE	TB	14	14	82	348	69	34	12	100%	5.9	19.8%	9.7%	10.1%	3.5%	4.79	4.98	-0.1
2028	31	MLB CTX	TB	18	18	107	452	101	38	12	100%	5.9	22.4%	8.4%	14.0%	2.6%	4.00	4.10	+1.0
2029	32	MLB CTX	TB	16	16	99	418	90	37	12	100%	6.2	21.6%	8.8%	12.8%	2.9%	4.21	4.36	+0.6
2030	33	MLB CTX	TB	15	15	91	384	80	35	12	100%	6.1	20.7%	9.2%	11.5%	3.1%	4.46	4.63	+0.2
2031	34	MLB CTX	TB	14	14	82	346	69	34	12	100%	5.9	19.8%	9.7%	10.1%	3.4%	4.74	4.93	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		161	161	901	3713	901	298	106	100%	5.6	24.3%	8.0%	16.3%	2.9%	3.61	3.63	+13.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	824	200	66	24	100%	5.6	24.3%	8.0%	16.3%	2.9%	3.61	3.63	+3.1
Career	—	MLE		130	128	657	2670	699	210	70	98%	5.1	26.2%	7.9%	18.3%	2.6%	3.14	3.33	+11.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		40	39	200	813	213	64	21	98%	5.1	26.2%	7.9%	18.3%	2.6%	3.14	3.33	+2.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Shane McClanahan (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.91	23.1%	8.0%	2.5%	—	4.39	21.6%	12.8%	296	+0.48	—	—	—
Jorge Castillo L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	33	SP	4.50	16.8%	9.2%	3.0%	.292	4.95	12.4%	7.2%	186	+0.45	4.50	408	72
Ryan Bollinger L 2018 · 3.56 FIP	27	SP	3.56	17.1%	7.5%	1.7%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	112	70
Tomas Solis L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	32	SP	4.20	15.0%	6.2%	2.9%	.264	5.09	12.0%	3.7%	159	+0.89	4.20	327	69
Brandon Mann L 2016 · 4.72 FIP	32	SP	4.72	19.4%	7.9%	4.1%	.320	3.97	19.0%	7.6%	128	-0.75	3.59	190	68
Alejandro Soto L 2016 · 3.96 FIP	30	SP	3.96	14.9%	6.4%	2.4%	.367	4.15	15.9%	10.3%	97	+0.19	3.96	280	67
Paul Oseguera L 2015 · 3.83 FIP	31	SP	3.83	17.6%	8.5%	2.1%	.297	5.62	5.6%	-6.9%	28	+1.79	3.83	162	67
Yusei Kikuchi L 2021 · 4.49 FIP	30	SP	4.49	24.5%	9.3%	4.2%	.285	4.00	27.0%	19.2%	444	-0.49	3.23	1,056	66
Arturo Lopez L 2015 · 4.80 FIP	32	SP	4.80	13.7%	6.2%	3.8%	.301	4.80	10.9%	4.2%	217	+0.00	4.34	445	65
Alejandro Astorga L 2017 · 4.01 FIP	30	SP	4.01	14.4%	8.2%	2.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.72	311	65
Orlando Lara L 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SP	4.29	15.2%	10.3%	2.1%	.348	4.08	14.2%	7.2%	230	-0.21	3.85	426	65
Jose De Paula L 2019 · 3.31 FIP	31	SP	3.31	19.0%	7.6%	1.6%	.394	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	118	63
John Bale L 2003 · 4.12 FIP	29	SP	4.12	19.0%	5.1%	3.6%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	168	62
Tsuyoshi Wada L 2014 · 3.60 FIP	33	SP	3.60	19.7%	6.2%	2.5%	.290	3.66	16.8%	9.7%	119	+0.06	3.60	188	61
Marlon Arias L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	30	SP	4.32	16.8%	12.2%	2.0%	.330	3.73	17.2%	9.5%	22	-0.59	3.73	154	61
Kramer Sneed L 2016 · 4.21 FIP	27	SP	4.21	13.2%	8.2%	2.2%	.265	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	116	60
Juan Pablo Oramas L 2019 · 3.60 FIP	29	SP	3.60	21.2%	8.0%	2.3%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	440	60
James Gillheeney L 2015 · 3.79 FIP	27	SP-	3.79	14.4%	8.0%	1.6%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	129	59
Chris Narveson L 2011 · 4.01 FIP	29	SP	4.01	18.0%	9.2%	2.3%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	625	59
Carlos Hernandez L 2017 · 3.07 FIP	30	SP	3.07	14.7%	4.0%	1.3%	.295	2.83	17.9%	12.4%	73	-0.24	2.83	331	59
Santiago Gutierrez L 2016 · 3.90 FIP	30	SP	3.90	14.8%	9.2%	1.6%	.350	4.94	15.8%	5.6%	121	+1.04	3.90	341	59

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.0	111	24.1%	8.0%	1.10	3.66
James Paxton ('24)	4.8	95	25.3%	7.9%	1.05	3.77
Marius Russo ('39-'46, 11 WAR*)	3.4	136	22.9%*	8.0%*	1.06*	3.42*
Shane McClanahan ('21-'23, 9 WAR*)	2.0	135	24.1%*	7.2%*	1.05*	3.33*
Carmen Hill ('15-'30, 11 WAR*)	3.9	112	20.8%*	9.0%*	1.14*	3.66*
Lance Lynn ('24)	10.0	154	23.7%	8.3%	1.04	3.74
Cy Blanton ('34-'42, 16 WAR*)	6.1	152	25.8%*	7.1%*	1.04*	3.88*