Juan Hillman
P
Albuquerque Isotopes
Age 29
LHP
6'1" / 195 lbs
AAA
peak 0.3 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 38 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109118vR 127
ERA4.79
FIP4.79
K%18.8%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%9.1%
ROS IP38
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 38 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 18 | ROK | AZL Indians | 8 | 6 | 24 | 103 | 20 | 5 | 0 | 75% | 3.0 | 13.2% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 0.0% | 4.12 | 2.75 | — |
| 2015 | 18 | ROK | AZL Indians | 8 | 6 | 24 | 103 | 20 | 5 | 0 | 75% | 3.0 | 19.4% | 4.9% | 14.6% | 0.0% | 4.12 | 2.06 | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A | Lake County Captains | 26 | 26 | 138 | 611 | 101 | 48 | 22 | 100% | 5.3 | 12.2% | 9.3% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 6.08 | 5.28 | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A | Lake County Captains | 26 | 26 | 138 | 611 | 101 | 48 | 22 | 100% | 5.3 | 16.5% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 3.6% | 6.08 | 4.76 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A | Lake County Captains | 26 | 26 | 129 | 582 | 110 | 52 | 7 | 100% | 4.9 | 14.0% | 10.5% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 5.18 | 4.00 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A | Lake County Captains | 26 | 26 | 129 | 582 | 110 | 52 | 7 | 100% | 4.9 | 18.9% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 1.2% | 5.18 | 3.31 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ | Lynchburg Hillcats | 25 | 25 | 140 | 604 | 99 | 41 | 10 | 100% | 5.6 | 12.6% | 7.8% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 3.85 | 4.64 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ | Lynchburg Hillcats | 25 | 25 | 140 | 604 | 99 | 41 | 10 | 100% | 5.6 | 16.4% | 6.8% | 9.6% | 1.7% | 3.85 | 3.49 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 21 | 110 | 463 | 87 | 34 | 16 | 95% | 5.0 | 15.3% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 3.94 | 5.79 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 21 | 110 | 463 | 87 | 34 | 16 | 95% | 5.0 | 18.8% | 7.3% | 11.4% | 3.5% | 3.94 | 4.34 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | 19 | 9 | 56 | 258 | 33 | 26 | 9 | 47% | 2.9 | 11.3% | 10.6% | 0.7% | 3.2% | 5.46 | 5.26 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | 19 | 9 | 56 | 258 | 33 | 26 | 9 | 47% | 2.9 | 12.8% | 10.1% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 5.46 | 5.40 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | COL | 6 | 6 | 38 | 162 | 31 | 16 | 5 | 100% | 6.4 | 18.8% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 3.0% | 4.79 | 4.79 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | COL | 6 | 6 | 36 | 152 | 29 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.9% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 3.2% | 4.85 | 4.92 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | COL | 2 | 2 | 13 | 55 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 100% | 6.5 | 18.9% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 3.2% | 4.85 | 4.92 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 2 | 2 | 13 | 56 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 100% | 6.6 | 19.0% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 3.2% | 4.85 | 4.54 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 166 | 90 | 30 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.0% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 3.2% | 4.85 | 4.54 | +2.0 | ||
| Career | — | 126 | 113 | 596 | 2621 | 346 | 235 | 82 | 90% | 4.7 | 13.2% | 9.0% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 4.83 | 4.84 | +3.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 38 | 200 | 879 | 116 | 79 | 27 | 90% | 4.7 | 13.2% | 9.0% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 4.83 | 4.84 | +1.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Juan Hillman (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.79 | 18.8% | 9.7% | 3.0% | — | 4.92 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 36 | +0.13 | — | — | — |
| Marlon Arias L 2027 · 4.14 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.14 | 16.8% | 12.2% | 1.7% | .330 | 3.89 | 17.2% | 9.5% | 22 | -0.25 | 3.89 | 154 | 80 |
| Brandon Mann L 2029 · 4.73 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.73 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 4.1% | .320 | 4.14 | 19.0% | 7.6% | 128 | -0.59 | 3.60 | 190 | 79 |
| Nico Tellache L 2025 · 4.65 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.65 | 13.4% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 160 | 78 |
| Jack Snodgrass L 2025 · 5.20 FIP | 28 | SP- | 5.20 | 15.7% | 10.1% | 3.9% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.77 | 118 | 75 |
| Shinnosuke Ogasawara L 2025 · 3.98 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.98 | 22.0% | 6.8% | 3.4% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 122 | 74 |
| Orlando Lara L 2027 · 4.00 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.00 | 15.2% | 10.3% | 1.6% | .348 | 4.09 | 14.2% | 7.2% | 230 | +0.09 | 3.82 | 426 | 73 |
| Jeff Locke L 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.18 | 17.1% | 7.9% | 2.8% | .345 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.71 | 328 | 72 |
| Roy Merritt L 2027 · 4.01 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.01 | 13.3% | 5.9% | 2.3% | .293 | 3.88 | 16.2% | 10.4% | 116 | -0.13 | 3.88 | 129 | 72 |
| Darin Gorski L 2025 · 4.39 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.39 | 15.0% | 9.8% | 2.4% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.39 | 206 | 72 |
| Carlos Teller L 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.14 | 14.3% | 10.7% | 3.4% | .297 | 4.77 | 12.6% | 1.1% | 148 | -0.37 | 3.72 | 333 | 72 |
| Misael Siverio L 2025 · 4.52 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.52 | 17.3% | 9.1% | 3.1% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.00 | 185 | 72 |
| Alejandro Soto L 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.16 | 12.8% | 7.0% | 2.3% | .367 | 4.34 | 14.6% | 9.1% | 128 | +0.18 | 3.97 | 280 | 71 |
| Kwang Hyun Kim L 2029 · 3.68 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.68 | 15.6% | 6.5% | 2.0% | .214 | 4.11 | 17.7% | 9.5% | 107 | +0.43 | 3.68 | 146 | 71 |
| Alejandro Astorga L 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.78 | 15.0% | 9.1% | 1.5% | .290 | 4.17 | 14.4% | 6.2% | 116 | +0.39 | 3.78 | 311 | 71 |
| Marco Tovar L 2025 · 4.97 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.97 | 16.1% | 11.3% | 3.3% | .317 | 4.79 | 12.6% | 7.0% | 82 | -0.18 | 3.79 | 327 | 70 |
| Aríel Miranda L 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.31 | 17.9% | 12.8% | 2.0% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.38 | 431 | 70 |
| Everett Teaford L 2028 · 4.36 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.36 | 13.9% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.36 | 103 | 69 |
| Tomas Solis L 2029 · 4.35 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.35 | 15.0% | 6.2% | 3.1% | .264 | 5.50 | 12.0% | 3.7% | 159 | +1.15 | 4.35 | 327 | 69 |
| Edgar Osuna L 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 29 | SP | 5.16 | 10.6% | 8.2% | 3.5% | .345 | 5.04 | 10.0% | 2.8% | 83 | -0.12 | 5.04 | 175 | 69 |
| Arturo Lopez L 2029 · 4.71 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.71 | 13.7% | 6.2% | 3.6% | .301 | 4.61 | 10.9% | 4.2% | 217 | -0.10 | 4.24 | 445 | 68 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 37 | 18.9% | 9.9% | 1.22 | 4.82 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |