Melvin Adón prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Melvin Adón P Worcester Red Sox

Age 32 RHP 6'3" / 246 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 21 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.75

FIP4.75

K%22.3%

BB%12.2%

K-BB%10.1%

ROS IP22

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 21 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	21	ROK MLE	DSL Giants	14	14	69	284	54	21	2	100%	4.9	12.9%	9.2%	3.7%	1.0%	2.48	3.72	—
2015	21	ROK RAW	DSL Giants	14	14	69	284	54	21	2	100%	4.9	19.0%	7.4%	11.6%	0.7%	2.48	2.82	—
2017	23	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	23	19	99	441	89	35	5	83%	4.3	14.9%	9.4%	5.6%	1.8%	4.35	4.01	—
2017	23	A RAW	Augusta GreenJackets	23	19	99	441	89	35	5	83%	4.3	20.2%	7.9%	12.2%	1.1%	4.35	3.02	—
2018	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	15	82	368	79	37	6	83%	4.6	15.9%	11.4%	4.5%	2.4%	5.03	4.50	—
2018	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	15	82	368	79	37	6	83%	4.6	21.5%	10.1%	11.4%	1.6%	5.03	3.48	—
2019	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	55	245	77	29	3	0%	1.2	26.0%	12.9%	13.1%	1.5%	4.72	3.38	—
2019	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	0	55	245	77	29	3	0%	1.2	31.4%	11.8%	19.6%	1.2%	4.72	2.59	—
2022	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	3	25	107	28	13	2	14%	1.2	15.4%	11.4%	4.0%	2.2%	3.65	4.47	—
2022	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	3	25	107	28	13	2	14%	1.2	26.2%	12.1%	14.0%	1.9%	3.65	3.46	—
2023	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	43	0	59	276	69	41	4	0%	1.4	21.1%	16.3%	4.8%	2.0%	5.19	4.51	—
2023	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	43	0	59	276	69	41	4	0%	1.4	21.1%	16.3%	4.8%	2.0%	5.19	4.51	—
2023	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	43	0	59	276	69	41	4	0%	1.4	25.0%	14.9%	10.1%	1.4%	5.19	3.73	—
2024	30	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	7	0	8	44	12	10	2	0%	1.2	27.3%	22.7%	4.5%	4.5%	11.88	6.17	—
2024	30	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	7	0	8	44	12	10	2	0%	1.2	27.3%	22.7%	4.5%	4.5%	11.88	6.17	—
2024	30	AAA RAW	Worcester Red Sox	7	0	8	44	12	10	2	0%	1.2	27.3%	22.7%	4.5%	4.5%	11.88	6.94	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	32	MLB	BOS	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.3%	12.2%	10.1%	2.9%	4.75	4.75	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	33	MLB MLE	BOS	19	0	20	84	18	10	3	0%	1.1	21.9%	12.3%	9.6%	3.2%	4.86	4.96	-0.1
2027	33	MLB CTX	BOS	7	0	7	30	6	4	1	0%	1.0	21.9%	12.3%	9.6%	3.2%	4.86	4.96	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	0	7	31	7	4	1	0%	1.1	21.9%	12.3%	9.6%	3.2%	4.86	4.58	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	190	109	27	0%	1.1	21.9%	12.3%	9.6%	3.2%	4.86	4.58	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		174	51	398	1765	311	208	33	29%	2.3	17.6%	11.8%	5.8%	1.9%	4.45	4.14	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		87	26	200	887	157	105	17	29%	2.3	17.6%	11.8%	5.8%	1.9%	4.45	4.14	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Melvin Adón (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.75	22.3%	12.2%	2.9%	—	4.96	21.9%	9.6%	20	+0.21	—	—	—
Angel Sánchez R 2023 · 4.90 FIP	33	SW	4.90	19.0%	10.5%	3.8%	.333	3.77	11.8%	6.8%	27	-1.13	3.77	284	71
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	70
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	69
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	69
Brian Sanches R 2011 · 4.35 FIP	32	SU	4.35	19.6%	11.1%	2.7%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	229	69
Neil Wagner R 2016 · 4.05 FIP	32	SU	4.05	19.8%	12.3%	1.9%	.360	3.11	20.7%	12.1%	54	-0.94	3.11	135	68
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	68
Jason Urquidez R 2015 · 3.59 FIP	32	SU	3.59	15.6%	9.3%	1.1%	.386	1.81	25.5%	20.7%	90	-1.78	1.25	123	67
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2017 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	20.4%	10.0%	1.8%	.331	6.14	17.9%	3.7%	41	+2.53	3.50	170	67
Arcenio Leon R 2019 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	21.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	115	66
Cody Satterwhite R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	30	SU	4.22	17.0%	7.1%	3.0%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	147	66
Chris Jakubauskas R 2011 · 4.42 FIP	32	SW	4.42	15.7%	7.9%	3.0%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	165	66
Ivan Maldonado R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	35	SW	4.60	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.269	5.41	6.4%	-3.3%	104	+0.81	4.60	172	66
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	65
Scott Atchison R 2007 · 4.55 FIP	31	SU	4.55	19.1%	7.6%	3.8%	.297	4.59	16.2%	9.5%	60	+0.04	2.52	340	65
Dan Winkler R 2022 · 3.87 FIP	32	SU	3.87	24.4%	14.0%	1.9%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	231	64
A.J. Schugel R 2021 · 4.82 FIP	32	SU	4.82	16.6%	12.3%	2.9%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	299	64
Mike Buddie R 2002 · 4.26 FIP	31	SU	4.26	15.1%	7.6%	2.7%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	123	64
Jeff Fulchino R 2011 · 4.44 FIP	31	SU	4.44	20.4%	11.1%	3.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	178	64
Felipe Arredondo R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	32	SU	4.65	16.2%	7.1%	3.7%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	337	64