Melvin Adón
P
Worcester Red Sox
+0.2
WAR
Age 32
RHP
6'3" / 246 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA4.48
FIP4.48
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.1%
BB%10.6%
K-BB%12.5%
IP31
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 21 | ROK | DSL Giants | 14 | 14 | 69 | 284 | 54 | 21 | 2 | 12.9% | 9.2% | 1.0% | 2.48 | 3.72 | +1.0 |
| 2017 | 23 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 23 | 19 | 99 | 441 | 89 | 35 | 5 | 14.9% | 9.4% | 1.7% | 4.35 | 3.98 | +1.5 |
| 2018 | 24 | A+ | San Jose Giants | 18 | 15 | 82 | 368 | 79 | 37 | 6 | 15.9% | 11.4% | 2.4% | 5.03 | 4.54 | +0.6 |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 48 | 0 | 55 | 245 | 77 | 29 | 3 | 26.0% | 12.9% | 1.6% | 4.72 | 3.39 | +1.0 |
| 2022 | 28 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | 21 | 3 | 25 | 107 | 28 | 13 | 2 | 15.4% | 11.4% | 2.2% | 3.65 | 4.45 | +0.1 |
| 2023 | 29 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 43 | 0 | 59 | 276 | 69 | 41 | 4 | 21.6% | 19.0% | 2.0% | 5.19 | 4.81 | +0.1 |
| 2024 | 30 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | 7 | 0 | 8 | 44 | 12 | 10 | 2 | — | — | — | 11.88 | — | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | BOS | 31 | — | 31 | 131 | 30 | 14 | 4 | 23.2% | 10.6% | 2.9% | 4.48 | 4.48 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | BOS | 30 | — | 30 | 125 | 29 | 13 | 4 | 22.9% | 10.7% | 3.0% | 4.53 | 4.57 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 174 | 51 | 398 | 1765 | 313 | 216 | 33 | 17.7% | 12.2% | 1.9% | 4.45 | 4.19 | +5.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 87 | 26 | 200 | 887 | 157 | 109 | 17 | 17.7% | 12.2% | 1.9% | 4.45 | 4.19 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Melvin Adón (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.48 | 23.2% | 10.6% | 2.9% | — | 4.57 | 22.9% | 12.2% | 30 | +0.09 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 96 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.63 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 1.8% | .331 | 6.11 | 17.9% | 3.7% | 41 | +2.48 | 3.45 | 170 | 86 |
| Mike Broadway R 2025 · 4.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.63 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.9% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 86 |
| Arcenio Leon R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.52 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 2.2% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 115 | 85 |
| Ryan Cook R 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 83 |
| Brad Boxberger R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.77 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 4.2% | .280 | 3.48 | 27.2% | 17.5% | 149 | -1.29 | 3.02 | 363 | 82 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.37 | 23.2% | 9.2% | 3.8% | .319 | 2.59 | 28.5% | 21.7% | 186 | -1.78 | 2.00 | 380 | 81 |
| David Phelps R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.40 | 24.5% | 10.9% | 3.6% | .289 | 3.37 | 26.7% | 16.6% | 84 | -1.03 | 2.49 | 373 | 81 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2029 · 3.50 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.50 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .290 | 3.90 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.40 | 3.50 | 219 | 80 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.45 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.18 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.27 | 2.48 | 147 | 80 |
| James Hoyt R 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.45 | 22.2% | 9.9% | 1.8% | .355 | 5.57 | 22.1% | 10.4% | 50 | +2.12 | 1.61 | 312 | 80 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.53 | 20.8% | 9.0% | 1.9% | .338 | 4.03 | 24.4% | 11.0% | 97 | +0.50 | 2.80 | 410 | 79 |
| Logan Kensing R 2027 · 3.61 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.61 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.55 | 2.72 | 172 | 79 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.65 | 22.0% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .256 | 4.36 | 20.5% | 9.0% | 16 | +0.71 | 3.65 | 137 | 79 |
| Jon Edwards R 2025 · 4.43 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.43 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.39 | 132 | 79 |
| Manny Acosta R 2029 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.09 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.07 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -1.02 | 3.07 | 102 | 79 |
| Junichi Tazawa R 2026 · 5.19 FIP | 32 | SU | 5.19 | 20.4% | 10.1% | 4.6% | .362 | 4.14 | 17.0% | 8.6% | 21 | -1.05 | 2.99 | 227 | 79 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.60 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.0% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.33 | 221 | 78 |
| Dan Winkler R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.85 | 24.4% | 14.0% | 1.9% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.47 | 231 | 78 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2026 · 3.33 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.33 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.4% | .342 | 4.98 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.65 | 3.33 | 122 | 78 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.