Seth Martinez
P
Worcester Red Sox
Age 31
RHP
6'2" / 193 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION52 act + 71 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119109vR 100
ERA4.46
FIP4.62
K%19.7%
BB%9.8%
K-BB%9.9%
ROS IP71
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 122 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1090.8
Whiff%
p3423.0%
K%
p1016.2%
xwOBA vs
p460.316
CT+0.7 (16%)
SL (38%)
SI (9%)
CH (11%)
FB-1.4 (36%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 21 | ROK | AZL Athletics | 3 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0.8 | 18.2% | 18.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.86 | 3.87 | — |
| 2016 | 21 | ROK | AZL Athletics | 3 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0.8 | 18.2% | 18.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.86 | 3.96 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A | Beloit Snappers | 20 | 10 | 95 | 394 | 73 | 19 | 9 | 50% | 4.8 | 13.7% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 2.6% | 3.49 | 4.09 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A | Beloit Snappers | 20 | 10 | 95 | 394 | 73 | 19 | 9 | 50% | 4.8 | 18.5% | 4.8% | 13.7% | 2.3% | 3.49 | 3.39 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A | Beloit Snappers | 42 | 0 | 71 | 291 | 58 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.7 | 14.7% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 2.8% | 3.28 | 4.23 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A | Beloit Snappers | 42 | 0 | 71 | 291 | 58 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.7 | 19.9% | 5.5% | 14.4% | 1.7% | 3.28 | 3.06 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 0 | 72 | 280 | 74 | 18 | 3 | 0% | 1.7 | 20.8% | 7.2% | 13.6% | 1.1% | 2.51 | 2.86 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 0 | 72 | 280 | 74 | 18 | 3 | 0% | 1.7 | 26.4% | 6.4% | 20.0% | 1.1% | 2.51 | 2.33 | — |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 61 | 246 | 81 | 23 | 5 | 0% | 1.6 | 29.8% | 9.1% | 20.7% | 2.7% | 3.41 | 3.24 | +0.9 |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 61 | 246 | 81 | 23 | 5 | 0% | 1.6 | 32.9% | 9.3% | 23.6% | 2.0% | 3.41 | 2.64 | +1.4 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 0 | 54 | 216 | 53 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 23.7% | 8.4% | 15.3% | 2.5% | 2.52 | 3.56 | +0.6 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 0 | 54 | 216 | 53 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 24.5% | 8.3% | 16.2% | 2.3% | 2.52 | 3.34 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 54 | 0 | 63 | 283 | 75 | 27 | 6 | 0% | 1.2 | 25.2% | 9.7% | 15.5% | 2.2% | 4.29 | 3.38 | +0.9 |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 54 | 0 | 63 | 283 | 75 | 27 | 6 | 0% | 1.2 | 26.5% | 9.5% | 17.0% | 2.1% | 4.29 | 3.24 | +1.0 |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 57 | 0 | 65 | 272 | 48 | 24 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.1% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 2.9% | 3.18 | 4.40 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 57 | 0 | 65 | 272 | 48 | 24 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 2.9% | 3.18 | 4.33 | +0.2 |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 47 | 1 | 50 | 214 | 58 | 19 | 5 | 2% | 1.1 | 25.4% | 9.0% | 16.4% | 2.2% | 3.93 | 3.30 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 47 | 1 | 50 | 214 | 58 | 19 | 5 | 2% | 1.1 | 27.1% | 8.9% | 18.2% | 2.3% | 3.93 | 3.22 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | 27 | 8 | 52 | 215 | 44 | 15 | 12 | 30% | 1.9 | 18.0% | 7.3% | 10.7% | 6.1% | 5.75 | 5.88 | -0.8 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | BOS | 67 | 0 | 71 | 299 | 59 | 29 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.7% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 2.8% | 4.46 | 4.62 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | BOS | 7 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.7% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 2.8% | 4.46 | 4.62 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 31 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 122 | 514 | 103 | 44 | 21 | — | — | 20.0% | 8.6% | 11.4% | 4.0% | 5.00 | 5.15 | +0.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 31 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 7 | 30 | 6 | 3 | 1 | — | — | 19.7% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 2.8% | 4.46 | 4.24 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | BOS | 62 | 0 | 66 | 277 | 52 | 28 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.9% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 3.1% | 4.71 | 4.87 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | BOS | 57 | 0 | 60 | 254 | 46 | 27 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.1% | 10.7% | 7.4% | 3.4% | 4.98 | 5.15 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | BOS | 23 | 0 | 24 | 101 | 19 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.9% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 3.1% | 4.71 | 4.87 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | BOS | 31 | 0 | 33 | 139 | 25 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.1% | 10.7% | 7.4% | 3.4% | 4.98 | 5.15 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 178 | 0 | 208 | 886 | 176 | 81 | 26 | 0% | 1.2 | 19.9% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 2.9% | 4.25 | 4.17 | +3.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 171 | 0 | 200 | 851 | 169 | 78 | 25 | 0% | 1.2 | 19.9% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 2.9% | 4.25 | 4.17 | +2.9 | ||
| Career | — | 374 | 19 | 585 | 2422 | 493 | 191 | 66 | 5% | 1.6 | 20.4% | 7.9% | 12.5% | 2.7% | 3.54 | 3.87 | +10.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 128 | 6 | 200 | 828 | 169 | 65 | 22 | 5% | 1.6 | 20.4% | 7.9% | 12.5% | 2.7% | 3.54 | 3.87 | +3.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Seth Martinez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.62 | 19.7% | 9.8% | 2.8% | — | 5.00 | 18.5% | 8.1% | 126 | +0.38 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2028 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 80 |
| Logan Kensing R 2028 · 3.55 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.55 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.5% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.49 | 2.77 | 172 | 77 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.69 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 1.8% | .244 | 4.74 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 377 | +1.05 | 3.69 | 521 | 75 |
| Jean Machi R 2028 · 4.50 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.50 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .276 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.44 | 3.92 | 186 | 74 |
| Junichi Tazawa R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.66 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 3.6% | .270 | 4.93 | 19.3% | 9.7% | 63 | +0.27 | 2.90 | 227 | 74 |
| Miguel Mejia R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.23 | 15.7% | 10.7% | 2.0% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.46 | 108 | 74 |
| Ryan Kelly R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.15 | 14.7% | 7.2% | 2.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 131 | 74 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.18 | 19.6% | 12.1% | 2.2% | .276 | 3.35 | 24.3% | 11.9% | 16 | -0.83 | 3.35 | 129 | 73 |
| Carlos Villanueva R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.53 | 22.0% | 7.6% | 2.4% | .259 | 5.02 | 19.0% | 15.9% | 74 | +1.49 | 3.53 | 135 | 73 |
| Angel Castro R 2027 · 4.89 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.89 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.9% | .268 | 4.43 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.46 | 3.48 | 292 | 73 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2027 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.44 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.25 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.19 | 2.56 | 147 | 72 |
| Bryan Morris R 2025 · 3.60 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.60 | 16.0% | 9.6% | 1.2% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 102 | 71 |
| Jason Urquidez R 2027 · 3.50 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.50 | 15.6% | 9.3% | 1.0% | .386 | 1.76 | 25.5% | 20.7% | 90 | -1.74 | 1.25 | 123 | 71 |
| Tim Dillard R 2027 · 3.70 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.70 | 15.9% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .330 | 3.83 | 16.7% | 8.1% | 144 | +0.13 | 3.15 | 352 | 71 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.80 | 13.5% | 6.7% | 3.6% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 149 | 71 |
| Jeff Manship R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.88 | 19.0% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .262 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.75 | 114 | 70 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2029 · 3.77 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.77 | 15.4% | 6.0% | 2.2% | .294 | 3.35 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 116 | -0.42 | 3.17 | 225 | 70 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 70 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2029 · 4.65 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.65 | 13.5% | 9.6% | 2.7% | .347 | 3.78 | 14.0% | 6.5% | 79 | -0.87 | 3.32 | 119 | 70 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.85 | 23.8% | 9.4% | 4.7% | .283 | 4.58 | 22.0% | 13.8% | 96 | -0.27 | 3.05 | 176 | 70 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 65 | 19.0% | 10.2% | 1.20 | 4.70 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |