Seth Martinez — OGILVIE

Seth Martinez P Worcester Red Sox

Age 31 RHP 6'2" / 193 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION75 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.45

FIP4.58

K%19.2%

BB%9.1%

K-BB%10.1%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 81 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD3535

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1090.8

Whiff%

p3423.0%

p1016.2%

xwOBA vs

p460.316

CT+0.7 (16%)

SL (38%)

SI (9%)

CH (11%)

FB-1.4 (36%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	21	ROK MLE	AZL Athletics	3	0	2	11	2	2	0	0%	0.8	18.2%	18.2%	0.0%	0.0%	3.86	3.87	—
2016	21	ROK RAW	AZL Athletics	3	0	2	11	2	2	0	0%	0.8	18.2%	18.2%	0.0%	0.0%	3.86	3.96	—
2017	22	A MLE	Beloit Snappers	20	10	95	394	73	19	9	50%	4.8	13.7%	5.7%	8.0%	2.8%	3.49	4.18	—
2017	22	A RAW	Beloit Snappers	20	10	95	394	73	19	9	50%	4.8	18.5%	4.8%	13.7%	2.3%	3.49	3.39	—
2018	23	A MLE	Beloit Snappers	42	0	71	291	58	16	5	0%	1.7	14.7%	6.5%	8.3%	2.5%	3.28	4.05	—
2018	23	A RAW	Beloit Snappers	42	0	71	291	58	16	5	0%	1.7	19.9%	5.5%	14.4%	1.7%	3.28	3.06	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	72	280	74	18	3	0%	1.7	20.8%	7.2%	13.6%	1.2%	2.51	2.92	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	0	72	280	74	18	3	0%	1.7	26.4%	6.4%	20.0%	1.1%	2.51	2.33	—
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	61	246	81	23	5	0%	1.6	29.8%	9.1%	20.7%	2.6%	3.41	3.14	+1.0
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	0	61	246	81	23	5	0%	1.6	32.9%	9.3%	23.6%	2.0%	3.41	2.64	+1.4
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	54	216	53	18	5	0%	1.2	23.7%	8.4%	15.3%	2.5%	2.52	3.56	+0.6
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	54	216	53	18	5	0%	1.2	24.5%	8.3%	16.2%	2.3%	2.52	3.34	+0.8
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	0	63	283	75	27	6	0%	1.2	24.7%	9.2%	15.5%	2.3%	4.29	3.41	+0.9
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	0	63	283	75	27	6	0%	1.2	24.7%	9.2%	15.5%	2.3%	4.29	3.41	+0.9
2023	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	54	0	63	283	75	27	6	0%	1.2	26.5%	9.5%	17.0%	2.1%	4.29	3.24	+1.0
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	57	0	65	272	48	24	8	0%	1.1	16.9%	8.6%	8.3%	3.1%	3.18	4.46	+0.1
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	57	0	65	272	48	24	8	0%	1.1	16.9%	8.6%	8.3%	3.1%	3.18	4.46	+0.1
2024	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	57	0	65	272	48	24	8	0%	1.1	17.6%	8.8%	8.8%	2.9%	3.18	4.33	+0.2
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	1	50	214	58	19	5	2%	1.1	24.0%	7.7%	16.3%	2.0%	3.93	3.12	+0.9
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	1	50	214	58	19	5	2%	1.1	24.0%	7.7%	16.3%	2.0%	3.93	3.12	+0.9
2025	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	1	50	214	58	19	5	2%	1.1	27.1%	8.9%	18.2%	2.3%	3.93	3.22	+0.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			118	0	145	621	127	53	17	0%	1.2	20.5%	8.5%	11.9%	2.7%	4.03	3.97	+1.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	31	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	42	10	75	317	67	21	20	24%	1.8	17.6%	6.1%	11.5%	7.1%	5.54	6.27	—
YTD	31	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	42	10	75	317	67	21	20	24%	1.8	17.6%	6.1%	11.5%	7.1%	5.54	6.27	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	31	AAA RAW	BOS	41	10	74	311	66	21	20	24%	1.8	21.2%	6.8%	14.5%	6.4%	5.50	5.69	—
2026	31	MLB RAW	BOS	1	0	1	6	1	0	0	0%	1.0	16.7%	0.0%	16.7%	0.0%	9.00	1.69	—
SO FAR	31	MLB RAW	BOS	1	0	1	6	1	0	0	0%	1.0	16.7%	0.0%	16.7%	0.0%	9.00	1.69	—
ROS	31	MLB MLE	BOS	6	0	6	25	5	2	1	0%	1.0	19.2%	9.1%	10.1%	2.8%	4.45	4.58	-0.0
ROS	31	MLB CTX	BOS	6	0	6	25	5	2	1	0%	1.0	19.2%	9.1%	10.1%	2.8%	4.45	4.58	-0.0
2026 TOT	31	MLB MLE	BOS	—	—	81	342	72	23	21	—	—	21.0%	6.8%	14.2%	6.1%	5.47	6.14	-1.2
FULL	31	MLB A+C	BOS	—	—	7	29	72	23	21	—	—	248.0%	80.4%	167.6%	71.6%	64.24	31.63	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	BOS	62	0	66	277	51	26	9	0%	1.1	18.4%	9.5%	8.9%	3.1%	4.68	4.83	-0.2
2028	33	MLB MLE	BOS	57	0	60	254	44	25	9	0%	1.1	17.5%	10.0%	7.6%	3.4%	4.94	5.11	-0.4
2027	32	MLB CTX	BOS	59	0	62	262	48	25	8	0%	1.1	18.4%	9.5%	8.9%	3.1%	4.68	4.83	-0.2
2028	33	MLB CTX	BOS	54	0	57	241	42	24	8	0%	1.1	17.5%	10.0%	7.6%	3.4%	4.94	5.11	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		237	0	270	1149	222	104	34	0%	1.1	19.3%	9.1%	10.3%	3.0%	4.38	4.24	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		176	0	200	851	164	77	25	0%	1.1	19.3%	9.1%	10.3%	3.0%	4.38	4.24	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		389	21	608	2524	505	189	75	5%	1.6	20.0%	7.5%	12.5%	3.0%	3.60	3.99	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		128	7	200	830	166	62	25	5%	1.6	20.0%	7.5%	12.5%	3.0%	3.60	3.99	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Seth Martinez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.58	19.2%	9.1%	2.8%	—	4.96	18.0%	8.2%	126	+0.38	—	—	—
Fernando Nieve R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	33	SU	4.27	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.43	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.84	1.96	112	79
Logan Kensing R 2015 · 3.56 FIP	33	SU	3.56	17.6%	8.8%	1.5%	.270	3.06	17.9%	10.0%	124	-0.50	2.73	172	78
Junichi Tazawa R 2017 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	16.0%	7.6%	3.5%	.270	4.81	19.3%	9.7%	63	+0.16	2.94	227	77
Edwin Jackson R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	31	SU	3.77	17.5%	8.8%	1.9%	.244	4.71	17.6%	7.8%	377	+0.94	3.77	521	75
Ryan Kelly R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	31	SU	4.33	14.7%	7.2%	2.8%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	131	75
Jean Machi R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	33	SU	4.56	16.3%	8.6%	3.2%	.276	4.24	18.5%	11.9%	128	-0.32	4.12	186	75
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	74
Miguel Mejia R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	31	SU	4.41	15.7%	10.7%	2.3%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	108	74
Bryan Morris R 2017 · 3.60 FIP	30	SU	3.60	16.0%	9.6%	1.1%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	102	73
Carlos Villanueva R 2015 · 3.62 FIP	31	SU	3.62	22.0%	7.6%	2.6%	.259	4.73	19.0%	15.9%	74	+1.11	3.62	135	73
Tyler Sturdevant R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	31	SU	4.48	13.5%	6.7%	3.0%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	149	73
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2016 · 3.50 FIP	31	SU	3.50	16.4%	8.4%	1.3%	.308	4.77	19.3%	7.3%	90	+1.27	3.50	170	73
Miguel Socolovich R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	31	SU	4.37	16.4%	5.1%	3.6%	.303	3.55	19.7%	14.5%	93	-0.82	2.65	283	73
Chris Hatcher R 2016 · 4.61 FIP	31	SU	4.61	23.8%	9.4%	4.2%	.283	4.69	22.0%	13.8%	96	+0.08	2.92	176	72
Dustin Molleken R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	31	SU	4.04	19.6%	12.1%	1.9%	.276	3.38	24.3%	11.9%	16	-0.66	3.38	129	72
George Kontos R 2016 · 3.55 FIP	31	SU	3.55	16.2%	7.9%	1.5%	.242	4.12	18.9%	12.7%	163	+0.57	3.55	290	72
Jason Urquidez R 2015 · 3.59 FIP	32	SU	3.59	15.6%	9.3%	1.1%	.386	1.81	25.5%	20.7%	90	-1.78	1.25	123	72
Juan Sandoval R 2015 · 3.82 FIP	34	SU	3.82	15.4%	6.0%	2.3%	.294	3.33	17.4%	8.8%	116	-0.49	3.24	225	72
Jeff Manship R 2016 · 4.87 FIP	31	SU	4.87	19.0%	10.6%	3.7%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	2.83	114	71
Danny Farquhar R 2017 · 3.62 FIP	30	SU	3.62	22.3%	11.0%	1.8%	.247	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	224	71

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	65	18.4%	9.5%	1.20	4.68
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43