Seth Martinez
P
Worcester Red Sox
+0.2
WAR
Age 31
RHP
6'2" / 193 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA4.29
FIP4.25
xFIP6.29
SIERA6.03
K%22.2%
BB%9.0%
K-BB%13.2%
IP47
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
STUF4545
CTRL5050
CMD3535
K†4545
FB Velo
p1090.8
Whiff%
p3423.0%
K%
p1016.2%
xwOBA vs
p460.316
CT+0.7 (16%)
SL (38%)
SI (9%)
CH (11%)
FB-1.4 (36%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 21 | ROK | AZL Athletics | 3 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 3.86 | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A | Beloit Snappers | 20 | 10 | 95 | 394 | 73 | 19 | 9 | 13.7% | 5.7% | 2.8% | 3.49 | 4.18 | +1.2 |
| 2018 | 23 | A | Beloit Snappers | 42 | 0 | 71 | 291 | 58 | 16 | 5 | 14.7% | 6.5% | 2.5% | 3.28 | 4.06 | +0.8 |
| 2019 | 24 | AA | Midland RockHounds | 42 | 0 | 72 | 280 | 74 | 18 | 3 | 20.8% | 7.2% | 1.2% | 2.51 | 2.91 | +1.7 |
| 2021 | 26 | MLB | Houston Astros | 39 | 0 | 61 | 246 | 81 | 23 | 5 | 29.8% | 9.1% | 2.6% | 3.41 | 3.16 | +1.2 |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | Houston Astros | 43 | 0 | 54 | 216 | 53 | 18 | 5 | 23.7% | 8.4% | 2.5% | 2.52 | 3.53 | +0.9 |
| 2023 | 28 | MLB | Houston Astros | 54 | 0 | 63 | 283 | 75 | 27 | 6 | 25.2% | 9.7% | 2.3% | 4.29 | 3.47 | +1.1 |
| 2024 | 29 | MLB | Houston Astros | 57 | 0 | 65 | 272 | 48 | 24 | 8 | 17.1% | 9.0% | 3.0% | 3.18 | 4.41 | +0.4 |
| 2025 | 30 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 47 | 1 | 50 | 214 | 58 | 19 | 5 | 25.4% | 9.0% | 2.0% | 3.93 | 3.19 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | 5 | 1 | 12 | 39 | 7 | 0 | 3 | — | — | — | 2.31 | — | — |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | BOS | 47 | — | 47 | 197 | 38 | 19 | 6 | 19.1% | 9.8% | 2.8% | 4.46 | 4.66 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 31 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 58 | 236 | 45 | 19 | 9 | 18.9% | 8.1% | 3.6% | 4.03 | 3.73 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | BOS | 45 | — | 45 | 189 | 35 | 19 | 6 | 18.5% | 9.9% | 2.9% | 4.65 | 4.77 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | BOS | 43 | — | 43 | 181 | 32 | 18 | 5 | 17.8% | 10.1% | 3.0% | 4.80 | 4.90 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | BOS | 41 | — | 41 | 172 | 29 | 18 | 5 | 17.1% | 10.3% | 3.1% | 4.94 | 5.04 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 35 | MLB | BOS | 38 | — | 38 | 162 | 27 | 17 | 5 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 3.2% | 5.09 | 5.19 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 36 | MLB | BOS | 36 | — | 36 | 152 | 24 | 16 | 5 | 15.6% | 10.8% | 3.3% | 5.25 | 5.36 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 352 | 12 | 545 | 2246 | 461 | 175 | 55 | 20.5% | 7.8% | 2.5% | 3.30 | 3.70 | +9.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 129 | 4 | 200 | 824 | 169 | 64 | 20 | 20.5% | 7.8% | 2.5% | 3.30 | 3.70 | +3.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Seth Martinez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.66 | 19.1% | 9.8% | 2.8% | — | 4.90 | 17.8% | 7.7% | 128 | +0.24 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2028 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 81 |
| Logan Kensing R 2028 · 3.61 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.61 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.55 | 2.72 | 172 | 79 |
| Miguel Mejia R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.33 | 15.7% | 10.7% | 2.2% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 108 | 76 |
| Ryan Kelly R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.31 | 14.7% | 7.2% | 2.8% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.49 | 131 | 76 |
| Zack Segovia R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.5% | .314 | 3.37 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.44 | 3.37 | 144 | 76 |
| André Rienzo R 2026 · 5.33 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.33 | 17.9% | 11.8% | 4.1% | .337 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 200 | 76 |
| Jean Machi R 2028 · 4.63 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.63 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .276 | 4.24 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.39 | 4.11 | 186 | 74 |
| Junichi Tazawa R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.53 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 3.3% | .270 | 4.84 | 19.3% | 9.7% | 63 | +0.31 | 2.99 | 227 | 74 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.75 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 1.9% | .244 | 4.71 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 377 | +0.96 | 3.75 | 521 | 74 |
| Bryan Morris R 2025 · 3.68 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.68 | 16.0% | 9.6% | 1.3% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 102 | 74 |
| Jeff Manship R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.63 | 19.0% | 10.6% | 3.3% | .262 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.82 | 114 | 73 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2029 · 4.50 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.50 | 13.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .347 | 3.82 | 14.0% | 6.5% | 79 | -0.68 | 3.32 | 119 | 73 |
| Jason Urquidez R 2027 · 3.58 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.58 | 15.6% | 9.3% | 1.1% | .386 | 1.79 | 25.5% | 20.7% | 90 | -1.79 | 1.25 | 123 | 73 |
| Angel Castro R 2027 · 4.53 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.53 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.2% | .268 | 4.27 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.26 | 3.50 | 292 | 72 |
| Ivan Zavala R 2025 · 5.06 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.06 | 12.8% | 8.0% | 3.7% | .286 | 5.24 | 12.7% | 5.3% | 61 | +0.18 | 4.29 | 209 | 71 |
| Tim Dillard R 2027 · 3.60 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.60 | 15.9% | 7.7% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.87 | 16.7% | 8.1% | 144 | +0.27 | 3.12 | 352 | 71 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.01 | 19.6% | 12.1% | 1.9% | .276 | 3.38 | 24.3% | 11.9% | 16 | -0.63 | 3.38 | 129 | 71 |
| Carlos Villanueva R 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.67 | 22.0% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .259 | 4.50 | 19.0% | 15.9% | 74 | +0.83 | 3.67 | 135 | 70 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.83 | 23.8% | 9.4% | 4.6% | .283 | 4.53 | 22.0% | 13.8% | 96 | -0.30 | 2.93 | 176 | 70 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.49 | 13.5% | 6.7% | 3.1% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 149 | 70 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.