Francisco Pérez

P Las Vegas Aviators

Age 30 LHP 6'2" / 227 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAARPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	25	MIX2 levels	55	0	55	5.20	3.93	27.0%	15.5%	0.4	K 26.3% · BB 15.4% · FIP 3.65
2023	26	MIX3 levels	47	1	57	4.87	3.08	27.5%	11.1%	1.0	K 22.8% · BB 11.2% · FIP 3.43
2024	27	MIX2 levels	36	0	39	7.22	4.81	31.1%	11.5%	—	K 24.6% · BB 10.0% · FIP 5.46
2027PROJ	30	MLBOAK	20	0	21	4.39	4.39	23.9%	9.5%	0.0
2028PROJ37% MLB	31	MLBOAK	7	0	7	4.52	4.61	23.1%	9.8%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.4 · Next 2 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2023

Whiff%46

xwOBA vs38

K%27

FB Velo21

CompsRaul Valdes (age 32) · Andrew Barbosa (age 29) · Tommy Phelps (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 100108vR 117

ERA4.39

FIP4.39

K%23.9%

BB%9.5%

K-BB%14.4%

Proj IP21

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 21 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2192.4

Whiff%

p4624.7%

p2718.9%

xwOBA vs

p380.326

SL+2.0

CH-1.0

FB-1.3

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	18	ROK MLE	DSL Indians	13	12	51	214	48	19	0	92%	3.9	15.3%	11.1%	4.2%	0.0%	2.49	3.22	—
2015	18	ROK RAW	DSL Indians	13	12	51	214	48	19	0	92%	3.9	22.4%	8.9%	13.6%	0.0%	2.49	2.33	—
2016	19	ROK MLE	AZL Indians	12	7	64	256	52	17	1	58%	5.3	13.8%	8.3%	5.5%	0.5%	2.69	3.29	—
2016	19	ROK RAW	AZL Indians	12	7	64	256	52	17	1	58%	5.3	20.3%	6.6%	13.7%	0.4%	2.69	2.47	—
2018	21	A MLE	Lake County Captains	26	25	139	587	111	54	8	96%	5.4	14.0%	10.9%	3.1%	1.6%	4.07	4.20	—
2018	21	A RAW	Lake County Captains	26	25	139	587	111	54	8	96%	5.4	18.9%	9.2%	9.7%	1.4%	4.07	3.42	—
2019	22	ROK MLE	AZL Indians Red	6	5	18	69	29	6	2	83%	3.1	28.6%	10.9%	17.7%	4.1%	1.47	4.29	—
2019	22	ROK RAW	AZL Indians Red	6	5	18	69	29	6	2	83%	3.1	42.0%	8.7%	33.3%	2.9%	1.47	2.34	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	34	0	60	243	87	31	2	0%	1.8	32.1%	13.9%	18.2%	1.0%	2.11	2.69	+1.3
2021	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	34	0	60	243	87	31	2	0%	1.8	35.8%	12.8%	23.0%	0.8%	2.11	2.18	+1.7
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	55	0	55	252	68	39	5	0%	1.0	26.3%	15.4%	10.9%	1.5%	5.20	3.65	+0.6
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	55	0	55	252	68	39	5	0%	1.0	27.0%	15.5%	11.5%	2.0%	5.20	3.93	+0.4
2023	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	47	1	57	244	67	27	4	2%	1.2	22.8%	11.2%	11.6%	1.5%	4.87	3.43	+0.8
2023	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	47	1	57	244	67	27	4	2%	1.2	27.5%	11.1%	16.4%	1.6%	4.87	3.08	+1.0
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	0	39	183	57	21	9	0%	1.1	24.6%	10.0%	14.6%	5.8%	7.22	5.46	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	0	39	183	57	21	9	0%	1.1	24.6%	10.0%	14.6%	5.8%	7.22	5.46	—
2024	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	0	39	183	57	21	9	0%	1.1	31.1%	11.5%	19.7%	4.9%	7.22	4.81	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			31	1	32	150	26	19	2	3%	1.0	17.3%	12.7%	4.7%	1.3%	5.91	4.07	+0.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	OAK	20	0	21	89	21	8	3	0%	1.1	23.9%	9.5%	14.4%	3.2%	4.39	4.39	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	OAK	19	0	20	84	20	8	3	0%	1.1	23.1%	9.8%	13.3%	3.4%	4.52	4.61	-0.0
2028	31	MLB CTX	OAK	7	0	7	30	7	3	1	0%	1.0	23.1%	9.8%	13.3%	3.4%	4.52	4.61	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		38	1	39	181	33	22	3	3%	1.0	18.3%	12.2%	6.2%	1.7%	5.65	4.02	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		193	5	200	920	168	112	15	3%	1.0	18.3%	12.2%	6.2%	1.7%	5.65	4.02	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		229	50	483	2048	415	234	34	22%	2.1	20.3%	11.4%	8.8%	1.7%	3.86	3.76	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		95	21	200	848	172	97	14	22%	2.1	20.3%	11.4%	8.8%	1.7%	3.86	3.76	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Francisco Pérez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.39	23.9%	9.5%	3.2%	—	4.61	23.1%	13.3%	20	+0.22	—	—	—
Raul Valdes L 2010 · 4.02 FIP	32	SU	4.02	21.4%	9.9%	2.7%	.301	3.14	27.4%	22.5%	78	-0.88	2.29	160	78
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	75
Tommy Phelps L 2004 · 4.80 FIP	30	SW	4.80	19.4%	8.3%	4.2%	.286	3.98	13.2%	5.7%	23	-0.82	3.39	120	71
Brian Moran L 2019 · 3.40 FIP	30	SU	3.40	26.9%	10.0%	2.4%	.269	2.99	25.5%	18.5%	99	-0.41	1.80	421	70
Clay Rapada L 2011 · 4.34 FIP	30	SU	4.34	26.1%	10.1%	3.9%	.268	3.00	24.5%	14.2%	38	-1.34	3.00	120	69
Cory Luebke L 2016 · 3.88 FIP	31	SU	3.88	26.4%	9.1%	3.4%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	216	69
Yuki Matsui L 2024 · 3.63 FIP	28	SU	3.63	26.8%	8.9%	3.0%	.242	4.25	23.9%	12.6%	140	+0.62	3.63	203	68
Sammy Solís L 2019 · 4.05 FIP	30	SU	4.05	26.2%	8.9%	3.7%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	2.51	190	68
Kyle Regnault L 2018 · 3.82 FIP	29	SU	3.82	27.6%	9.7%	3.3%	.367	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	204	67
Ryan O'Rourke L 2019 · 4.08 FIP	31	SU	4.08	22.1%	14.3%	1.9%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	145	67
Nick Hagadone L 2015 · 3.65 FIP	29	SU	3.65	22.6%	8.9%	2.4%	.329	3.74	22.6%	13.3%	33	+0.09	2.97	141	67
Jeff Ibarra L 2017 · 3.64 FIP	29	SU	3.64	18.1%	7.0%	2.1%	.342	2.85	20.6%	17.2%	29	-0.79	2.85	101	66
Arturo Barradas L 2017 · 3.42 FIP	29	SU	3.42	18.1%	7.0%	1.8%	.288	3.24	16.1%	9.5%	34	-0.18	3.24	163	66
Buddy Baumann L 2018 · 4.87 FIP	30	SU	4.87	20.5%	11.9%	3.6%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	155	66
Ryan Buchter L 2017 · 4.45 FIP	30	SU	4.45	24.3%	9.3%	4.0%	.202	4.19	25.3%	15.6%	85	-0.26	2.37	296	66
John Rheinecker L 2007 · 5.13 FIP	28	SW	5.13	16.7%	10.9%	3.8%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	121	65
Buddy Boshers L 2018 · 3.22 FIP	30	SU	3.22	22.9%	6.6%	2.2%	.314	3.73	25.3%	14.9%	55	+0.51	2.76	239	65
Jason Gurka L 2018 · 3.36 FIP	30	SU	3.36	20.7%	6.2%	2.2%	.357	5.13	15.5%	7.9%	25	+1.77	2.82	183	65
Hector Hernandez L 2019 · 3.39 FIP	28	SW	3.39	20.2%	9.0%	1.5%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.17	121	65
Doug Slaten L 2010 · 3.22 FIP	30	SU	3.22	20.7%	9.8%	1.1%	.269	4.85	13.5%	3.1%	29	+1.63	3.22	139	65

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	36	20.7%	11.4%	0.92	5.09
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Yorkis Perez ('02)	1.4	40	20.8%	11.8%	0.93	4.44
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
Bob Allen ('61-'67, -1 WAR*)	1.4	55	21.4%*	10.4%*	0.89*	4.79*