Alan Rangel

P Lehigh Valley IronPigs

Age 29 RHP 6'2" / 170 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	MIX4 levels	18	13	57	3.77	3.03	27.3%	6.2%	—	K 21.1% · BB 6.4% · FIP 4.05
2025	27	MIX2 levels	30	25	136	4.38	4.94	24.1%	8.0%	-0.1	K 21.3% · BB 6.8% · FIP 5.65
2026	28	MIX2 levels	29	22	134	5.64	4.79	22.8%	9.7%	0.2	K 20.3% · BB 9.0% · FIP 4.99
2027PROJ	29	MLBPHI	26	26	156	4.69	4.94	20.1%	7.8%	-0.1
2028PROJ61% MLB	30	MLBPHI	15	15	89	4.89	5.07	19.6%	8.1%	-0.2
2029PROJ72% MLB	31	MLBPHI	16	16	98	5.08	5.24	19.1%	8.4%	-0.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.1 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%58

xwOBA vs45

Whiff%44

FB Velo27

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsZack Segovia (age 32) · Travis Smith (age 29) · Fabio Castillo (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.69

FIP4.94

K%20.1%

BB%7.8%

K-BB%12.4%

Proj IP156

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 156 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5555

CMD5555

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2792.9

Whiff%

p4424.4%

p5823.6%

xwOBA vs

p450.317

FB+0.7 (34%)

SL (16%)

CU (12%)

CH (37%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	17	ROK MLE	GCL Braves	14	1	26	116	23	9	3	7%	1.8	13.5%	9.7%	3.8%	3.6%	6.31	5.18	—
2015	17	ROK RAW	GCL Braves	14	1	26	116	23	9	3	7%	1.8	19.8%	7.8%	12.1%	2.6%	6.31	3.88	—
2016	18	ROK MLE	GCL Braves	12	9	47	189	47	10	2	75%	3.9	16.9%	6.6%	10.3%	1.5%	3.28	3.32	—
2016	18	ROK RAW	GCL Braves	12	9	47	189	47	10	2	75%	3.9	24.9%	5.3%	19.6%	1.1%	3.28	2.29	—
2017	19	A MLE	Rome Braves	15	13	71	299	48	14	5	87%	4.7	11.9%	5.5%	6.4%	2.9%	4.71	4.38	—
2017	19	A RAW	Rome Braves	15	13	71	299	48	14	5	87%	4.7	16.1%	4.7%	11.4%	1.7%	4.71	3.26	—
2018	20	A MLE	Rome Braves	25	22	125	533	105	31	12	88%	5.0	14.6%	6.9%	7.7%	3.3%	4.09	4.56	—
2018	20	A RAW	Rome Braves	25	22	125	533	105	31	12	88%	5.0	19.7%	5.8%	13.9%	2.3%	4.09	3.41	—
2019	21	A MLE	Rome Braves	28	24	132	581	121	46	10	86%	4.7	15.4%	9.3%	6.1%	2.6%	4.51	4.43	—
2019	21	A RAW	Rome Braves	28	24	132	581	121	46	10	86%	4.7	20.8%	7.9%	12.9%	1.7%	4.51	3.30	—
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	21	105	425	136	26	11	95%	4.8	25.0%	7.0%	18.0%	3.7%	3.87	3.90	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	21	105	425	136	26	11	95%	4.8	32.0%	6.1%	25.9%	2.6%	3.87	2.61	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	118	526	144	52	15	100%	4.4	22.0%	10.8%	11.3%	3.8%	5.28	4.69	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	118	526	144	52	15	100%	4.4	27.4%	9.9%	17.5%	2.9%	5.28	3.64	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	25	127	548	140	50	18	96%	4.9	20.8%	9.7%	11.1%	4.8%	4.61	5.22	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	25	127	548	140	50	18	96%	4.9	25.5%	9.1%	16.4%	3.3%	4.61	3.92	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	18	13	57	227	62	14	6	72%	3.2	21.1%	6.4%	14.7%	3.5%	3.77	4.05	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	18	13	57	227	62	14	6	72%	3.2	21.1%	6.4%	14.7%	3.5%	3.77	4.05	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	4 levels	18	13	57	227	62	14	6	72%	3.2	27.3%	6.2%	21.1%	2.6%	3.77	3.03	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	25	136	576	139	46	30	83%	4.5	21.3%	6.8%	14.5%	6.4%	4.38	5.65	-1.1
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	25	136	576	139	46	30	83%	4.5	21.3%	6.8%	14.5%	6.4%	4.38	5.65	-1.1
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	25	136	576	139	46	30	83%	4.5	24.1%	8.0%	16.1%	5.2%	4.38	4.94	-0.1
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	22	134	597	136	58	25	76%	4.6	20.3%	9.0%	11.3%	4.5%	5.64	4.99	-0.1
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	22	134	597	136	58	25	76%	4.6	20.3%	9.0%	11.3%	4.5%	5.64	4.99	-0.1
2026	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	22	134	597	136	58	25	76%	4.6	22.8%	9.7%	13.1%	4.2%	5.64	4.79	+0.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			12	3	37	169	37	19	5	25%	3.1	21.9%	11.2%	10.7%	3.0%	4.86	4.40	+0.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	PHI	26	26	156	659	133	51	26	100%	6.0	20.1%	7.8%	12.4%	4.0%	4.69	4.94	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	PHI	24	24	146	618	121	50	25	100%	6.1	19.6%	8.1%	11.6%	4.1%	4.89	5.07	-0.3
2029	31	MLB MLE	PHI	23	23	136	576	110	48	24	100%	5.9	19.1%	8.4%	10.7%	4.2%	5.08	5.24	-0.5
2028	30	MLB CTX	PHI	15	15	89	376	74	30	15	100%	5.9	19.6%	8.1%	11.6%	4.1%	4.89	5.07	-0.2
2029	31	MLB CTX	PHI	16	16	98	414	79	35	17	100%	6.1	19.1%	8.4%	10.7%	4.2%	5.08	5.24	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		43	34	224	957	189	84	38	79%	5.2	19.8%	8.8%	11.0%	3.9%	4.97	4.70	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		39	31	200	856	169	75	34	79%	5.2	19.8%	8.8%	11.0%	3.9%	4.97	4.70	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		246	202	1076	4617	878	378	182	82%	4.4	19.0%	8.2%	10.8%	3.9%	4.58	4.70	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	38	200	858	163	70	34	82%	4.4	19.0%	8.2%	10.8%	3.9%	4.58	4.70	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alan Rangel (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.94	20.1%	7.8%	4.0%	—	5.15	19.3%	11.1%	283	+0.21	—	—	—
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	77
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	74
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	72
Ariel Peña R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	28	SP	3.99	22.5%	12.0%	2.3%	.304	6.07	19.9%	-5.7%	21	+2.08	3.74	223	70
Yohan Pino R 2014 · 3.84 FIP	30	SP	3.84	19.4%	5.4%	3.1%	.312	4.45	17.1%	11.9%	133	+0.61	3.84	193	69
Reinier Roibal R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	30	SP	4.91	17.5%	11.8%	3.3%	.426	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	133	69
Rolando Valdez R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	29	SP	4.07	13.3%	5.9%	2.4%	.301	3.78	13.2%	7.9%	176	-0.29	3.06	258	68
Andrew Triggs R 2018 · 4.68 FIP	29	SP	4.68	23.6%	9.9%	4.2%	.263	—	—	—	—	—	1.66	242	67
Seth Greisinger R 2004 · 5.38 FIP	29	SP-	5.38	15.5%	6.0%	5.1%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	4.53	219	66
Stan Spencer R 2000 · 4.42 FIP	30	SP	4.42	19.2%	8.7%	3.4%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	119	66
Hiram Burgos R 2017 · 4.94 FIP	29	SP	4.94	19.3%	7.5%	4.6%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	384	65
Cody Anderson R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	28	SP	4.33	18.9%	7.5%	3.4%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	279	65
Erik Hiljus R 2002 · 6.07 FIP	29	SP	6.07	14.1%	9.7%	5.3%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	3.35	112	65
Tyler Herron R 2016 · 4.40 FIP	29	SP	4.40	13.4%	6.9%	2.9%	.389	4.02	16.4%	7.7%	60	-0.38	4.02	117	65
Marco Quevedo R 2016 · 4.57 FIP	29	SP	4.57	13.6%	6.2%	3.3%	.258	5.02	11.5%	3.2%	107	+0.45	4.13	300	64
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2015 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP	3.97	17.4%	7.1%	2.6%	.315	4.94	15.9%	8.7%	305	+0.97	3.97	567	64
Kohei Arihara R 2022 · 4.58 FIP	29	SP-	4.58	16.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	135	64
Zach Stewart R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	28	SP-	4.43	14.4%	8.3%	2.7%	.322	5.17	11.7%	2.1%	51	+0.74	4.27	194	63
David Griffin R 2023 · 5.83 FIP	27	SP-	5.83	14.2%	9.2%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	239	63
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	63

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	119	19.8%	8.3%	1.54	4.88
Brent Strom ('72-'77, 0 WAR*)	2.5	125	19.3%*	8.2%*	1.53*	4.78*
Bill Grahame ('08-'10, 0 WAR*)	1.7	116	17.7%*	9.3%*	1.52*	5.11*
Yank Terry ('40-'45, 0 WAR*)	2.3	114	18.0%*	9.4%*	1.76*	4.99*
Kevin Foster ('01)	2.5	127	18.9%	10.0%	1.55	4.86
Jerad Eickhoff ('22)	2.3	116	20.7%	6.9%	1.57	4.50
Dan Straily ('19)	4.0	115	19.8%	9.1%	1.60	4.56