Denyi Reyes — OGILVIE

Denyi Reyes P Syracuse Mets

Age 29 RHP 6'4" / 255 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 7 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.66

FIP4.89

K%18.0%

BB%8.2%

K-BB%9.7%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 7 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1291.8

Whiff%

p3723.4%

p2718.9%

xwOBA vs

p200.347

FB+1.4

CT-1.3

CH-3.9

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	18	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox 2	15	14	75	296	63	3	0	93%	5.0	14.5%	1.3%	13.2%	0.0%	2.88	2.04	—
2015	18	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox 2	15	14	75	296	63	3	0	93%	5.0	21.3%	1.0%	20.3%	0.0%	2.88	1.54	—
2016	19	ROK MLE	GCL Red Sox	9	3	35	141	25	4	3	33%	3.9	12.1%	3.5%	8.5%	3.0%	2.34	4.17	—
2016	19	ROK RAW	GCL Red Sox	9	3	35	141	25	4	3	33%	3.9	17.7%	2.8%	14.9%	2.1%	2.34	3.13	—
2018	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	24	156	609	145	19	13	89%	5.8	17.7%	3.7%	14.1%	3.0%	1.97	3.70	—
2018	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	24	156	609	145	19	13	89%	5.8	23.8%	3.1%	20.7%	2.1%	1.97	2.69	—
2019	22	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	26	26	151	629	116	37	14	100%	5.8	14.9%	6.5%	8.5%	2.8%	4.16	4.20	—
2019	22	AA RAW	Portland Sea Dogs	26	26	151	629	116	37	14	100%	5.8	18.4%	5.9%	12.6%	2.2%	4.16	3.50	—
2021	24	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	20	5	58	247	63	10	10	25%	2.9	20.7%	4.5%	16.2%	5.4%	4.21	4.88	—
2021	24	AA RAW	Portland Sea Dogs	20	5	58	247	63	10	10	25%	2.9	25.5%	4.0%	21.5%	4.0%	4.21	3.69	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	20	13	68	299	64	10	13	65%	3.4	19.3%	3.4%	15.9%	6.0%	6.12	5.19	-0.2
2022	25	MIX RAW	4 levels	20	13	68	299	64	10	13	65%	3.4	21.4%	3.3%	18.1%	4.3%	6.12	4.15	+0.6
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	21	111	493	89	41	27	72%	3.8	15.6%	7.6%	7.9%	6.0%	6.14	6.02	-1.4
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	21	111	493	89	41	27	72%	3.8	15.6%	7.6%	7.9%	6.0%	6.14	6.02	-1.4
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	21	111	493	89	41	27	72%	3.8	18.1%	8.3%	9.7%	5.5%	6.14	5.76	-1.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			12	4	27	121	20	9	3	33%	2.3	16.5%	7.4%	9.1%	2.5%	6.26	4.05	+0.2
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	29	MLB	NYM	1	1	7	30	5	2	1	100%	7.0	18.0%	8.2%	9.7%	3.4%	4.66	4.89	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	NYM	12	12	72	303	54	26	11	100%	6.0	17.8%	8.6%	9.2%	3.6%	4.86	5.04	-0.1
2028	31	MLB MLE	NYM	11	11	67	283	50	26	11	100%	6.1	17.5%	9.0%	8.5%	3.8%	5.05	5.21	-0.2
2027	30	MLB CTX	NYM	4	4	26	110	20	9	4	100%	6.5	17.8%	8.6%	9.2%	3.6%	4.86	5.04	-0.0
2028	31	MLB CTX	NYM	6	6	37	156	27	14	6	100%	6.2	17.5%	9.0%	8.5%	3.8%	5.05	5.21	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		22	14	91	388	67	33	13	64%	4.1	17.3%	8.4%	8.9%	3.3%	5.36	4.53	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		49	31	200	857	148	73	29	64%	4.1	17.3%	8.4%	8.9%	3.3%	5.36	4.53	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		146	106	653	2714	447	131	101	73%	4.5	16.5%	4.8%	11.7%	3.7%	3.94	4.35	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	32	200	831	137	40	31	73%	4.5	16.5%	4.8%	11.7%	3.7%	3.94	4.35	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Denyi Reyes (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.89	18.0%	8.2%	3.4%	—	5.12	17.7%	8.8%	139	+0.23	—	—	—
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	82
Matt Cain R 2015 · 4.88 FIP	30	SP-	4.88	17.1%	6.8%	4.3%	.296	4.87	15.2%	7.6%	214	-0.01	4.82	294	82
Kris Medlen R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	29	SP-	4.82	15.4%	6.4%	4.0%	.261	5.17	17.1%	8.6%	173	+0.35	4.59	261	81
Yohan Pino R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	31	SP-	4.13	17.8%	5.8%	3.3%	.312	5.33	15.2%	11.6%	35	+1.20	4.13	133	78
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2015 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP	3.97	17.4%	7.1%	2.6%	.315	4.94	15.9%	8.7%	305	+0.97	3.97	567	77
Trevor Cahill R 2017 · 5.13 FIP	29	SP-	5.13	22.8%	11.5%	4.5%	.321	4.36	21.3%	11.7%	251	-0.77	3.37	556	76
Shawn Haviland R 2015 · 3.95 FIP	29	SP-	3.95	14.6%	6.0%	2.4%	.303	4.67	16.1%	8.8%	169	+0.72	3.69	283	76
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	75
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	75
Tim Adleman R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	29	SP-	5.35	20.3%	9.4%	5.1%	.276	4.30	22.8%	15.0%	117	-1.05	3.63	605	72
Dylan Axelrod R 2015 · 4.75 FIP	30	SP-	4.75	14.1%	6.6%	3.6%	.304	4.28	13.7%	7.4%	133	-0.47	4.28	251	72
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	71
Justin Masterson R 2015 · 4.10 FIP	30	SP-	4.10	18.2%	10.5%	2.2%	.307	3.73	17.3%	6.4%	196	-0.37	3.50	269	70
Kohei Arihara R 2022 · 4.58 FIP	29	SP-	4.58	16.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	135	70
Doug Fister R 2015 · 4.22 FIP	31	SP-	4.22	14.0%	4.7%	3.1%	.302	4.33	16.2%	8.3%	352	+0.11	3.63	455	70
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	69
Andres Ivan Meza R 2015 · 4.45 FIP	28	SP	4.45	10.9%	5.6%	2.9%	.322	4.14	12.5%	4.0%	85	-0.31	4.14	275	69
Jacob Turner R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	27	SP-	4.48	14.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	340	69
Clayton Mortensen R 2015 · 4.41 FIP	30	SP-	4.41	15.0%	12.6%	1.8%	.289	4.43	22.0%	10.3%	115	+0.02	4.31	221	69
Kyle Friedrichs R 2021 · 4.73 FIP	29	SP-	4.73	13.9%	6.2%	3.7%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	603	69

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	72	17.8%	8.6%	1.39	4.85
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63