Denyi Reyes
P
Syracuse Mets
+0.7
WAR
Age 29
RHP
6'4" / 255 lbs
AAA
Svc 4.0 · Ctrl thru 2027
peak 0.7 · 2026
ERA5.93
FIP4.70
xFIP4.75
SIERA4.72
K%21.3%
BB%9.0%
K-BB%12.3%
IP109
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.7peak
2026
K†5050
FB Velo
p1291.8
Whiff%
p3723.4%
K%
p2718.9%
xwOBA vs
p200.347
FB+1.4
CT-1.3
CH-3.9
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 18 | ROK | DSL Red Sox 2 | 15 | 14 | 75 | 296 | 63 | 3 | 0 | 14.5% | 1.3% | 0.0% | 2.88 | 2.04 | +2.6 |
| 2016 | 19 | ROK | GCL Red Sox | 9 | 3 | 35 | 141 | 25 | 4 | 3 | 12.1% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.34 | 4.17 | +0.3 |
| 2018 | 21 | A+ | Salem Red Sox | 27 | 24 | 156 | 609 | 145 | 19 | 13 | 17.7% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 1.97 | 3.69 | +2.8 |
| 2019 | 22 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 26 | 26 | 151 | 629 | 116 | 37 | 14 | 14.9% | 6.5% | 2.8% | 4.16 | 4.18 | +1.9 |
| 2021 | 24 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 20 | 5 | 58 | 247 | 63 | 10 | 10 | 20.7% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 4.21 | 4.98 | -0.0 |
| 2022 | 25 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 20 | 13 | 68 | 299 | 64 | 10 | 13 | 19.3% | 3.4% | 6.0% | 6.12 | 5.18 | -0.1 |
| 2023 | 26 | MLB | New York Mets | 29 | 21 | 111 | 493 | 89 | 41 | 27 | 16.3% | 8.7% | 5.9% | 6.14 | 6.08 | -1.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | NYM | 20 | 20 | 109 | 461 | 98 | 42 | 16 | 21.3% | 9.0% | 3.4% | 5.93 | 4.70 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | NYM | 19 | 19 | 106 | 447 | 93 | 40 | 15 | 20.8% | 9.0% | 3.4% | 5.20 | 4.75 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | NYM | 19 | 19 | 102 | 431 | 88 | 39 | 15 | 20.3% | 9.0% | 3.5% | 4.95 | 4.82 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | NYM | 18 | 18 | 98 | 414 | 82 | 38 | 15 | 19.8% | 9.1% | 3.5% | 4.91 | 4.90 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | NYM | 17 | 17 | 94 | 395 | 76 | 37 | 14 | 19.2% | 9.2% | 3.6% | 4.97 | 5.01 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 34 | MLB | NYM | 16 | 16 | 89 | 375 | 69 | 35 | 14 | 18.5% | 9.4% | 3.7% | 5.08 | 5.15 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 35 | MLB | NYM | 15 | 15 | 84 | 354 | 63 | 34 | 14 | 17.8% | 9.7% | 3.8% | 5.21 | 5.30 | -0.1 |
| 2033 | 36 | MLB | NYM | 14 | 14 | 78 | 331 | 63 | 30 | 13 | 19.0% | 9.1% | 3.9% | 5.20 | 5.20 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 146 | 106 | 653 | 2714 | 451 | 136 | 101 | 16.6% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 3.94 | 4.36 | +6.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 45 | 32 | 200 | 831 | 138 | 42 | 31 | 16.6% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 3.94 | 4.36 | +2.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Denyi Reyes (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.70 | 21.3% | 9.0% | 3.4% | — | 4.82 | 20.3% | 11.3% | 306 | +0.12 | — | — | — |
| Trevor Cahill R 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.01 | 22.8% | 11.5% | 4.3% | .321 | 4.38 | 21.3% | 11.7% | 251 | -0.63 | 3.40 | 556 | 83 |
| Ervin Santana R 2029 · 4.00 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.00 | 17.1% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .273 | 4.12 | 19.2% | 12.4% | 417 | +0.12 | 3.75 | 720 | 82 |
| Hector Noesí R 2025 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 250 | 80 |
| Mitch Atkins R 2027 · 3.70 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.70 | 21.4% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .341 | 4.75 | 14.3% | 6.2% | 78 | +1.05 | 3.70 | 205 | 80 |
| Bud Norris R 2027 · 4.64 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.64 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 3.8% | .327 | 3.81 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -0.83 | 3.39 | 316 | 79 |
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2027 · 3.94 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.94 | 17.4% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .315 | 4.95 | 15.9% | 8.7% | 305 | +1.01 | 3.94 | 567 | 79 |
| Tim Adleman R 2026 · 5.33 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.33 | 20.3% | 9.4% | 5.0% | .276 | 4.33 | 22.8% | 15.0% | 117 | -1.00 | 3.64 | 605 | 78 |
| Yohan Pino R 2028 · 4.10 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.10 | 17.8% | 5.8% | 3.2% | .312 | 5.35 | 15.2% | 11.6% | 35 | +1.25 | 4.10 | 133 | 77 |
| Jose Samayoa R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.08 | 19.4% | 7.0% | 3.1% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 262 | 77 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2025 · 3.98 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.98 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 77 |
| Matt Cain R 2027 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.87 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 5.04 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | +0.17 | 4.87 | 294 | 77 |
| Mike Wright Jr. R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.77 | 19.9% | 7.2% | 2.6% | .347 | 4.21 | 17.6% | 7.3% | 169 | +0.44 | 3.77 | 725 | 77 |
| Jose Pina R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.86 | 16.9% | 9.2% | 3.7% | .231 | 3.67 | 13.6% | 6.9% | 246 | -1.19 | 3.65 | 424 | 77 |
| Mike Bolsinger R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.28 | 20.2% | 9.4% | 3.1% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.44 | 327 | 77 |
| Kris Medlen R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.76 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 3.9% | .261 | 5.17 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 173 | +0.41 | 4.58 | 261 | 76 |
| Mario Gonzalez R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.93 | 17.9% | 5.7% | 2.9% | .276 | 4.35 | 14.1% | 9.1% | 104 | +0.42 | 3.93 | 368 | 76 |
| Juan Delgadillo R 2029 · 4.56 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.56 | 15.5% | 7.2% | 3.4% | .316 | 4.46 | 10.9% | 4.7% | 39 | -0.10 | 4.46 | 143 | 75 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.00 | 15.3% | 8.5% | 2.0% | .316 | 3.75 | 17.1% | 8.5% | 348 | -0.25 | 3.14 | 593 | 74 |
| Jonathan Pintaro R 2024 · 4.21 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.21 | 24.4% | 13.2% | 2.7% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 152 | 74 |
| Austin Pruitt R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.23 | 20.5% | 5.5% | 4.0% | .327 | 4.11 | 18.3% | 14.4% | 95 | -0.12 | 2.94 | 819 | 73 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Arb-2
MLB Debut 2022
Service 4.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2027
First FA Year 2028
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Arb-2 | $2M | +0.7 | $3M | +$0.4M |
| 2027 | Arb-3 | $4M | +0.7 | $3M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $5M | $6M | +$0.4M | ||