Denyi Reyes
P
Syracuse Mets
Age 29
RHP
6'4" / 255 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 76 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125116vR 107
ERA4.55
FIP4.70
K%21.3%
BB%9.0%
K-BB%12.3%
ROS IP76
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 76 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1291.8
Whiff%
p3723.4%
K%
p2718.9%
xwOBA vs
p200.347
FB+1.4
CT-1.3
CH-3.9
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 18 | ROK | DSL Red Sox 2 | 15 | 14 | 75 | 296 | 63 | 3 | 0 | 93% | 5.0 | 14.5% | 1.3% | 13.2% | 0.0% | 2.88 | 2.04 | — |
| 2015 | 18 | ROK | DSL Red Sox 2 | 15 | 14 | 75 | 296 | 63 | 3 | 0 | 93% | 5.0 | 21.3% | 1.0% | 20.3% | 0.0% | 2.88 | 1.54 | — |
| 2016 | 19 | ROK | GCL Red Sox | 9 | 3 | 35 | 141 | 25 | 4 | 3 | 33% | 3.9 | 12.1% | 3.5% | 8.5% | 3.0% | 2.34 | 4.17 | — |
| 2016 | 19 | ROK | GCL Red Sox | 9 | 3 | 35 | 141 | 25 | 4 | 3 | 33% | 3.9 | 17.7% | 2.8% | 14.9% | 2.1% | 2.34 | 3.13 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 24 | 156 | 609 | 145 | 19 | 13 | 89% | 5.8 | 17.7% | 3.7% | 14.1% | 3.2% | 1.97 | 3.85 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 24 | 156 | 609 | 145 | 19 | 13 | 89% | 5.8 | 23.8% | 3.1% | 20.7% | 2.1% | 1.97 | 2.69 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 26 | 26 | 151 | 629 | 116 | 37 | 14 | 100% | 5.8 | 14.9% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 2.9% | 4.16 | 4.28 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 26 | 26 | 151 | 629 | 116 | 37 | 14 | 100% | 5.8 | 18.4% | 5.9% | 12.6% | 2.2% | 4.16 | 3.50 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 20 | 5 | 58 | 247 | 63 | 10 | 10 | 25% | 2.9 | 20.7% | 4.5% | 16.2% | 6.1% | 4.21 | 5.25 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 20 | 5 | 58 | 247 | 63 | 10 | 10 | 25% | 2.9 | 25.5% | 4.0% | 21.5% | 4.0% | 4.21 | 3.69 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 4 levels | 20 | 13 | 68 | 299 | 64 | 10 | 13 | 65% | 3.4 | 19.3% | 3.4% | 15.9% | 6.2% | 6.12 | 5.30 | -0.5 |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 4 levels | 20 | 13 | 68 | 299 | 64 | 10 | 13 | 65% | 3.4 | 21.4% | 3.3% | 18.1% | 4.3% | 6.12 | 4.15 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 21 | 111 | 493 | 89 | 41 | 27 | 72% | 3.8 | 16.3% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 6.14 | 6.08 | -0.9 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 21 | 111 | 493 | 89 | 41 | 27 | 72% | 3.8 | 18.1% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 5.5% | 6.14 | 5.76 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | NYM | 12 | 12 | 76 | 323 | 69 | 29 | 11 | 100% | 6.4 | 21.3% | 9.0% | 12.3% | 3.4% | 4.55 | 4.70 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | NYM | 12 | 12 | 72 | 303 | 63 | 28 | 11 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.8% | 9.3% | 11.5% | 3.6% | 4.73 | 4.87 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | NYM | 11 | 11 | 67 | 283 | 57 | 27 | 11 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.3% | 9.7% | 10.6% | 3.8% | 4.91 | 5.06 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | NYM | 4 | 4 | 26 | 110 | 23 | 10 | 4 | 100% | 6.5 | 20.8% | 9.3% | 11.5% | 3.6% | 4.73 | 4.87 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | NYM | 6 | 6 | 37 | 156 | 32 | 15 | 6 | 100% | 6.2 | 20.3% | 9.7% | 10.6% | 3.8% | 4.91 | 5.06 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 22 | 14 | 91 | 388 | 75 | 35 | 13 | 64% | 4.1 | 19.3% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 3.3% | 5.26 | 4.42 | +0.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 31 | 200 | 857 | 165 | 77 | 29 | 64% | 4.1 | 19.3% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 3.3% | 5.26 | 4.42 | +2.3 | ||
| Career | — | 146 | 106 | 653 | 2714 | 451 | 136 | 105 | 73% | 4.5 | 16.6% | 5.0% | 11.6% | 3.9% | 3.94 | 4.46 | +7.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 45 | 32 | 200 | 831 | 138 | 41 | 32 | 73% | 4.5 | 16.6% | 5.0% | 11.6% | 3.9% | 3.94 | 4.46 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Denyi Reyes (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.70 | 21.3% | 9.0% | 3.4% | — | 4.96 | 20.6% | 11.1% | 139 | +0.26 | — | — | — |
| Trevor Cahill R 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.10 | 22.8% | 11.5% | 4.5% | .321 | 4.41 | 21.3% | 11.7% | 251 | -0.69 | 3.33 | 556 | 83 |
| Hector Noesí R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 79 |
| Matt Cain R 2027 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.90 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 4.88 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | -0.02 | 4.83 | 294 | 78 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.00 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 77 |
| Kris Medlen R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.77 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.0% | .261 | 5.16 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 173 | +0.39 | 4.66 | 261 | 76 |
| Yohan Pino R 2028 · 3.95 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.95 | 17.8% | 5.8% | 2.9% | .312 | 5.48 | 15.2% | 11.6% | 35 | +1.53 | 3.95 | 133 | 76 |
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2027 · 3.84 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.84 | 17.4% | 7.1% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.10 | 15.9% | 8.7% | 305 | +1.26 | 3.84 | 567 | 74 |
| Tim Adleman R 2026 · 5.42 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.42 | 20.3% | 9.4% | 5.2% | .276 | 4.57 | 22.8% | 15.0% | 117 | -0.85 | 3.61 | 605 | 73 |
| Shawn Haviland R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.93 | 14.6% | 6.0% | 2.4% | .303 | 4.49 | 16.1% | 8.8% | 169 | +0.56 | 3.57 | 283 | 70 |
| Zack Segovia R 2029 · 5.00 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.00 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .314 | 3.41 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.59 | 3.41 | 144 | 70 |
| Ariel Peña R 2025 · 3.93 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.93 | 22.5% | 12.0% | 2.2% | .304 | 5.94 | 19.9% | -5.7% | 21 | +2.01 | 3.91 | 223 | 70 |
| Davis Daniel R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.63 | 19.4% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .298 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 584 | 70 |
| Justin Masterson R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.06 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 2.1% | .307 | 3.76 | 17.3% | 6.4% | 196 | -0.30 | 3.51 | 269 | 69 |
| Asher Wojciechowski R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.14 | 22.4% | 7.8% | 3.5% | .267 | 5.12 | 22.0% | 13.3% | 234 | +0.98 | 3.19 | 678 | 68 |
| Kohei Arihara R 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.67 | 16.4% | 7.2% | 3.7% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.67 | 135 | 67 |
| Dylan Axelrod R 2027 · 4.75 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.75 | 14.1% | 6.6% | 3.6% | .304 | 4.43 | 13.7% | 7.4% | 133 | -0.32 | 4.43 | 251 | 67 |
| Jesse Chavez R 2028 · 3.80 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.80 | 20.2% | 6.8% | 2.8% | .309 | 4.37 | 22.0% | 16.2% | 300 | +0.57 | 2.03 | 804 | 67 |
| Taylor Jungmann R 2024 · 3.82 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.82 | 18.8% | 11.1% | 1.6% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 435 | 66 |
| Tim Lincecum R 2028 · 4.20 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.20 | 18.0% | 10.8% | 2.3% | .296 | 5.09 | 17.4% | 6.3% | 89 | +0.89 | 4.20 | 166 | 66 |
| Jacob Turner R 2024 · 4.69 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.69 | 14.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 340 | 65 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 72 | 20.8% | 9.3% | 1.39 | 4.72 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |