Odalvi Javier — OGILVIE

Odalvi Javier P Harrisburg Senators

+0.2 WAR

Age 29 RHP 6'0" / 180 lbs AA peak 0.2 · 2026

ERA4.58

FIP4.58

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%22.4%

BB%10.4%

K-BB%12.0%

IP50

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.2peak

2026

K†5555

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2015	18	ROK	GCL Braves	10	1	19	85	18	9	2	14.4%	13.2%	3.3%	2.37	5.37	-0.1
2016	19	ROK	GCL Braves	12	6	45	189	34	12	1	12.2%	7.9%	0.7%	2.62	3.48	+0.7
2017	20	ROK	Danville Braves	13	13	63	276	50	22	3	12.3%	10.0%	1.5%	3.14	4.16	+0.6
2018	21	A	Rome Braves	26	25	126	565	133	58	14	17.4%	12.1%	3.6%	4.14	5.13	+0.2
2019	22	A+	Florida Fire Frogs	26	26	146	625	117	59	15	13.9%	11.1%	3.5%	3.70	5.25	+0.1
2021	24	AA	Mississippi Braves	24	12	76	315	80	31	5	20.6%	10.8%	2.4%	3.20	4.06	+0.9
2022	25	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	47	1	60	244	69	22	2	22.2%	8.3%	1.2%	2.56	2.94	+1.4
2023	26	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	35	0	51	249	48	40	8	16.1%	17.2%	3.4%	6.22	5.80	-0.5
▸ 2026 Season
2026	29	MLB	WSH	50	—	50	210	47	22	6	22.4%	10.4%	3.0%	4.58	4.58	+0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	30	MLB	WSH	48	—	48	204	45	21	6	22.2%	10.4%	3.1%	4.59	4.61	+0.2
2028	31	MLB	WSH	46	—	46	196	43	20	6	22.1%	10.4%	3.2%	4.63	4.67	+0.1
2029	32	MLB	WSH	45	—	45	188	41	20	6	21.9%	10.5%	3.2%	4.69	4.74	+0.1
2030	33	MLB	WSH	43	—	43	180	39	19	6	21.6%	10.7%	3.3%	4.76	4.82	+0.1
2031	34	MLB	WSH	40	—	40	171	36	19	6	21.3%	10.8%	3.4%	4.86	4.93	+0.0
2032	35	MLB	WSH	38	—	38	161	34	18	6	20.9%	11.1%	3.5%	4.98	5.05	-0.0
2033	36	MLB	WSH	36	—	36	151	31	17	5	20.5%	11.3%	3.6%	5.11	5.19	-0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			193	84	585	2548	414	289	70	16.2%	11.3%	2.7%	3.65	4.66	+4.2
/ 200 IP	—			66	29	200	871	142	99	24	16.2%	11.3%	2.7%	3.65	4.66	+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Odalvi Javier (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.58	22.4%	10.4%	3.0%	—	4.67	22.1%	11.6%	139	+0.09	—	—	—
Diego Moreno R 2026 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.12	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.63	2.31	187	86
Tyler Sturdevant R 2026 · 4.33 FIP	29	SU	4.33	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.99	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.34	3.47	149	85
Wirfin Obispo R 2027 · 4.83 FIP	30	SU	4.83	18.6%	12.2%	3.2%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.52	1.30	218	84
Gerardo Sanchez R 2025 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	21.6%	8.4%	2.1%	.355	3.57	20.5%	15.1%	56	+0.10	2.59	137	83
Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.03 FIP	29	SW	4.03	24.4%	10.9%	2.9%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.65	2.38	160	83
Al Alburquerque R 2026 · 3.56 FIP	29	SW	3.56	21.4%	11.1%	1.6%	.330	3.23	21.3%	12.5%	114	-0.33	2.83	228	82
Pedro Beato R 2026 · 4.25 FIP	29	SW	4.25	19.2%	8.5%	3.1%	.275	3.71	18.5%	11.1%	152	-0.54	3.46	295	82
David Hernandez R 2027 · 4.62 FIP	30	SU	4.62	22.9%	7.6%	4.5%	.287	3.18	24.9%	18.4%	192	-1.44	2.56	268	82
Dustin Molleken R 2027 · 3.72 FIP	30	SW	3.72	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.88	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	81
Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 4.10 FIP	29	SU	4.10	21.2%	7.9%	3.2%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	3.18	253	81
Cody Hall R 2026 · 3.95 FIP	29	SU	3.95	26.8%	10.0%	3.4%	.299	3.92	25.9%	8.4%	19	-0.03	3.51	134	81
Jonathan Broxton R 2028 · 3.73 FIP	31	SW	3.73	24.5%	8.2%	3.0%	.325	3.80	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.07	3.65	137	81
Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.52 FIP	29	SU	3.52	22.1%	7.5%	2.4%	.283	3.61	22.2%	13.6%	174	+0.09	3.17	272	80
Kevin Jepsen R 2028 · 3.46 FIP	31	SW	3.46	20.7%	9.1%	1.7%	.241	5.68	16.9%	7.2%	90	+2.22	3.46	160	80
Dalier Hinojosa R 2026 · 3.41 FIP	29	SW	3.41	20.4%	9.8%	1.4%	.283	4.31	18.7%	6.1%	24	+0.90	3.41	104	80
Marc Magliaro R 2025 · 4.01 FIP	28	SU	4.01	19.6%	7.3%	3.0%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	125	80
Brandon Cunniff R 2025 · 4.82 FIP	28	SW	4.82	20.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.275	6.70	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+1.88	3.88	180	80
Drew Storen R 2026 · 3.81 FIP	29	SW	3.81	19.5%	7.3%	2.6%	.289	4.32	19.4%	8.4%	10	+0.51	2.26	172	80
Carlos Fisher R 2029 · 3.45 FIP	32	SW	3.45	22.6%	11.6%	1.4%	.236	3.18	22.5%	11.1%	91	-0.27	2.48	147	80
Andrew Robinson R 2026 · 4.33 FIP	29	SU	4.33	23.4%	8.8%	3.8%	.245	—	—	—	—	—	3.25	160	80

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.