Hector Perez (P, Lehigh Valley IronPigs) prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Hector Perez P Lehigh Valley IronPigs

Age 30 RHP 6'3" / 223 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 44 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.48

FIP4.48

K%24.4%

BB%11.0%

K-BB%13.4%

ROS IP44

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 44 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6060

FB-0.7

SL-0.7

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	19	ROK MLE	Greeneville Astros	17	10	55	215	50	23	0	59%	3.2	15.8%	13.4%	2.4%	0.0%	1.64	3.46	—
2015	19	ROK RAW	Greeneville Astros	17	10	55	215	50	23	0	59%	3.2	23.3%	10.7%	12.6%	0.0%	1.64	2.54	—
2016	20	A MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	7	7	31	138	44	21	1	100%	4.5	23.6%	18.0%	5.6%	1.0%	4.60	3.95	—
2016	20	A RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	7	7	31	138	44	21	1	100%	4.5	31.9%	15.2%	16.7%	0.7%	4.60	2.72	—
2017	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	17	107	465	128	78	8	68%	4.3	21.0%	19.4%	1.7%	2.1%	3.44	4.92	—
2017	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	17	107	465	128	78	8	68%	4.3	27.5%	16.8%	10.8%	1.7%	3.44	3.86	—
2018	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	18	115	480	133	64	6	67%	4.3	21.8%	15.1%	6.7%	1.6%	3.76	4.06	—
2018	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	18	115	480	133	64	6	67%	4.3	27.7%	13.3%	14.4%	1.2%	3.76	3.13	—
2019	23	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	26	24	121	544	117	67	9	92%	4.7	17.4%	13.5%	3.9%	2.3%	4.60	4.61	—
2019	23	AA RAW	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	26	24	121	544	117	67	9	92%	4.7	21.5%	12.3%	9.2%	1.7%	4.60	3.79	—
2020	24	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	1	0	2	10	1	3	1	0%	1.7	10.0%	30.0%	-20.0%	10.0%	10.80	11.54	-0.1
2020	24	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	1	0	2	10	1	3	1	0%	1.7	10.0%	30.0%	-20.0%	10.0%	10.80	15.10	-0.2
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	38	193	48	47	2	0%	1.2	20.5%	26.5%	-6.0%	1.0%	6.16	5.30	—
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	0	38	193	48	47	2	0%	1.2	24.9%	24.4%	0.5%	1.0%	6.16	4.97	—
2022	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	1	33	141	48	19	4	5%	1.5	25.3%	16.4%	8.9%	3.2%	3.51	4.78	—
2022	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	1	33	141	48	19	4	5%	1.5	34.0%	13.5%	20.6%	2.8%	3.51	3.49	—
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	2	65	286	82	41	9	5%	1.5	25.1%	12.8%	12.3%	3.4%	4.13	4.49	+0.0
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	2	65	286	82	41	9	5%	1.5	25.1%	12.8%	12.3%	3.4%	4.13	4.49	+0.0
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	2	65	286	82	41	9	5%	1.5	28.7%	14.3%	14.3%	3.1%	4.13	4.26	+0.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			2	0	2	15	1	4	1	0%	1.0	6.7%	26.7%	-20.0%	6.7%	13.50	14.60	-0.2
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	30	MLB	TB	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	24.4%	11.0%	13.4%	3.0%	4.48	4.48	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	TB	39	0	41	174	41	19	6	0%	1.1	23.9%	11.2%	12.7%	3.3%	4.59	4.67	-0.1
2027	31	MLB CTX	TB	14	0	15	63	15	7	2	0%	1.1	23.9%	11.2%	12.7%	3.3%	4.59	4.67	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		16	0	17	79	16	11	3	0%	1.1	20.6%	14.1%	6.5%	3.9%	5.63	5.29	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		192	0	200	921	187	129	35	0%	1.0	20.6%	14.1%	6.5%	3.9%	5.63	5.29	-1.7
Career	—	MLE		201	79	568	2472	512	404	49	39%	2.8	20.7%	16.3%	4.4%	2.0%	3.93	4.50	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		71	28	200	870	180	142	17	39%	2.8	20.7%	16.3%	4.4%	2.0%	3.93	4.50	-1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Hector Perez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.48	24.4%	11.0%	3.0%	—	4.67	23.9%	12.7%	41	+0.19	—	—	—
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	66
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	65
Josh Zeid R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	30	SW	5.35	18.3%	10.8%	4.4%	.334	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	313	65
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	29	SP-	4.01	17.3%	10.9%	1.8%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	272	64
Aldo Montes R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	29	SW	4.69	18.2%	10.6%	3.3%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	4.69	210	62
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	62
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	62
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	61
Bryan Mitchell R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	30	SU	4.29	20.6%	12.0%	2.5%	.305	5.07	14.4%	3.9%	39	+0.78	2.72	481	61
Mike Burns R 2009 · 4.90 FIP	31	SP-	4.90	17.2%	6.6%	4.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	104	61
Hector Velázquez R 2019 · 4.82 FIP	30	SW	4.82	19.6%	12.3%	3.3%	.292	3.81	19.2%	10.9%	25	-1.01	2.75	536	60
Felipe Arredondo R 2017 · 4.76 FIP	30	SW	4.76	14.8%	7.3%	3.6%	.311	4.65	16.2%	9.1%	64	-0.11	3.92	337	60
Cody Satterwhite R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	30	SU	4.22	17.0%	7.1%	3.0%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	147	60
Deck McGuire R 2018 · 5.28 FIP	29	SW	5.28	18.4%	13.2%	3.8%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	622	60
Jared Fernandez R 2002 · 4.23 FIP	30	SP-	4.23	15.6%	10.0%	2.2%	.323	3.57	11.8%	5.6%	38	-0.66	3.57	101	59
Britt Reames R 2002 · 3.76 FIP	28	SU	3.76	24.7%	10.4%	2.6%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	204	59
Spencer Bivens R 2023 · 3.91 FIP	29	SU	3.91	18.6%	10.6%	1.9%	.285	3.95	18.1%	11.4%	255	+0.04	3.52	391	59
Blake Smith R 2016 · 3.59 FIP	28	SU	3.59	22.4%	8.6%	2.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.17	124	59
Mike Broadway R 2017 · 4.73 FIP	30	SU	4.73	18.3%	10.2%	3.4%	.245	4.65	23.0%	12.4%	49	-0.08	1.74	195	59
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SW	4.29	12.4%	6.9%	2.5%	.288	4.81	11.4%	1.3%	125	+0.52	3.39	212	59

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	44	23.4%	11.7%	1.27	4.74
J.J. Hoover ('18)	1.4	57	23.8%	11.4%	1.42	4.17
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
Bill Risley ('98)	1.1	55	21.9%	10.9%	1.26	3.98