Hector Perez
P
Lehigh Valley IronPigs
Age 30
RHP
6'3" / 223 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 44 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120111vR 101
ERA4.44
FIP4.44
K%23.8%
BB%10.3%
K-BB%13.5%
ROS IP44
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 44 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
FB-0.7
SL-0.7
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 19 | ROK | Greeneville Astros | 17 | 10 | 55 | 215 | 50 | 23 | 0 | 59% | 3.2 | 15.8% | 13.4% | 2.4% | 0.0% | 1.64 | 3.46 | — |
| 2015 | 19 | ROK | Greeneville Astros | 17 | 10 | 55 | 215 | 50 | 23 | 0 | 59% | 3.2 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 12.6% | 0.0% | 1.64 | 2.54 | — |
| 2016 | 20 | A | Quad Cities River Bandits | 7 | 7 | 31 | 138 | 44 | 21 | 1 | 100% | 4.5 | 23.6% | 18.0% | 5.6% | 1.1% | 4.60 | 4.01 | — |
| 2016 | 20 | A | Quad Cities River Bandits | 7 | 7 | 31 | 138 | 44 | 21 | 1 | 100% | 4.5 | 31.9% | 15.2% | 16.7% | 0.7% | 4.60 | 2.72 | — |
| 2017 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 17 | 107 | 465 | 128 | 78 | 8 | 68% | 4.3 | 21.0% | 19.4% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 3.44 | 4.88 | — |
| 2017 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 17 | 107 | 465 | 128 | 78 | 8 | 68% | 4.3 | 27.5% | 16.8% | 10.8% | 1.7% | 3.44 | 3.86 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 18 | 115 | 480 | 133 | 64 | 6 | 67% | 4.3 | 21.8% | 15.1% | 6.7% | 1.7% | 3.76 | 4.10 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 18 | 115 | 480 | 133 | 64 | 6 | 67% | 4.3 | 27.7% | 13.3% | 14.4% | 1.2% | 3.76 | 3.13 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | 26 | 24 | 121 | 544 | 117 | 67 | 9 | 92% | 4.7 | 17.4% | 13.5% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 4.60 | 4.86 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | 26 | 24 | 121 | 544 | 117 | 67 | 9 | 92% | 4.7 | 21.5% | 12.3% | 9.2% | 1.7% | 4.60 | 3.79 | — |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.7 | 10.0% | 30.0% | -20.0% | 10.0% | 10.80 | 11.54 | -0.1 |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.7 | 10.0% | 30.0% | -20.0% | 10.0% | 10.80 | 15.10 | -0.2 |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 0 | 38 | 193 | 48 | 47 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 20.5% | 26.5% | -6.0% | 1.0% | 6.16 | 5.26 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 0 | 38 | 193 | 48 | 47 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 24.9% | 24.4% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 6.16 | 4.97 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 22 | 1 | 33 | 141 | 48 | 19 | 4 | 5% | 1.5 | 25.3% | 16.4% | 8.9% | 2.8% | 3.51 | 4.57 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 22 | 1 | 33 | 141 | 48 | 19 | 4 | 5% | 1.5 | 34.0% | 13.5% | 20.6% | 2.8% | 3.51 | 3.49 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 2 | 65 | 286 | 82 | 41 | 9 | 5% | 1.5 | 25.7% | 14.9% | 10.7% | 3.3% | 4.13 | 4.66 | +0.0 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 2 | 65 | 286 | 82 | 41 | 9 | 5% | 1.5 | 28.7% | 14.3% | 14.3% | 3.1% | 4.13 | 4.26 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | TB | 42 | 0 | 44 | 186 | 44 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.8% | 10.3% | 13.5% | 3.0% | 4.44 | 4.44 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | TB | 39 | 0 | 41 | 174 | 41 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.4% | 10.5% | 12.8% | 3.3% | 4.54 | 4.63 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | TB | 36 | 0 | 38 | 160 | 37 | 17 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 10.8% | 12.1% | 3.5% | 4.70 | 4.83 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | TB | 33 | 0 | 35 | 147 | 33 | 17 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 3.7% | 4.90 | 5.05 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | TB | 14 | 0 | 15 | 63 | 15 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.4% | 10.5% | 12.8% | 3.3% | 4.54 | 4.63 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | TB | 20 | 0 | 21 | 89 | 20 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 10.8% | 12.1% | 3.5% | 4.70 | 4.83 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | TB | 23 | 0 | 24 | 101 | 23 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.4% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 3.7% | 4.90 | 5.05 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 59 | 0 | 62 | 267 | 59 | 31 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.9% | 11.8% | 10.1% | 3.7% | 5.02 | 4.77 | -0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 191 | 0 | 200 | 866 | 191 | 101 | 32 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.9% | 11.8% | 10.1% | 3.7% | 5.02 | 4.77 | +1.5 | ||
| Career | — | 201 | 79 | 568 | 2472 | 513 | 410 | 50 | 39% | 2.8 | 20.8% | 16.6% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 3.93 | 4.57 | +5.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 71 | 28 | 200 | 870 | 181 | 144 | 18 | 39% | 2.8 | 20.8% | 16.6% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 3.93 | 4.57 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Hector Perez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.44 | 23.8% | 10.3% | 3.0% | — | 4.83 | 22.9% | 12.1% | 114 | +0.39 | — | — | — |
| Esmil Rogers R 2025 · 3.51 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.51 | 18.5% | 8.9% | 1.6% | .348 | 2.88 | 21.7% | 17.9% | 40 | -0.63 | 2.88 | 199 | 75 |
| Bud Norris R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 74 |
| Steve Johnson R 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.30 | 20.3% | 8.9% | 3.2% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 152 | 69 |
| Yoanner Negrin R 2027 · 4.02 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.02 | 15.1% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.39 | 15.0% | 8.5% | 270 | -0.63 | 3.19 | 485 | 68 |
| Josh Zeid R 2026 · 5.41 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.41 | 18.3% | 10.8% | 4.5% | .334 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 265 | 68 |
| Tim Dillard R 2028 · 3.70 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.70 | 15.9% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .330 | 3.83 | 16.7% | 8.1% | 144 | +0.13 | 3.15 | 352 | 68 |
| Tiago Da Silva R 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.30 | 19.6% | 4.5% | 2.4% | .278 | 2.36 | 21.4% | 18.5% | 98 | -0.94 | 2.11 | 287 | 67 |
| Elian Leyva R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.0% | 8.5% | 2.9% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 158 | 66 |
| Mike Bolsinger R 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.30 | 20.2% | 9.4% | 3.1% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 327 | 66 |
| Chris Leroux R 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.50 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .279 | 3.94 | 13.5% | 5.5% | 140 | -0.56 | 3.94 | 219 | 66 |
| Carlos Frías R 2025 · 4.59 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.59 | 16.9% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .369 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.64 | 204 | 65 |
| Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2025 · 3.84 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.84 | 17.3% | 10.9% | 1.5% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 272 | 63 |
| Justin Masterson R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.06 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 2.1% | .307 | 3.76 | 17.3% | 6.4% | 196 | -0.30 | 3.51 | 269 | 63 |
| Aldo Montes R 2025 · 4.41 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.41 | 18.2% | 10.6% | 2.8% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.41 | 210 | 63 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2024 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.00 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 63 |
| Hector Velázquez R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.76 | 19.6% | 12.3% | 3.2% | .292 | 3.91 | 19.2% | 10.9% | 25 | -0.85 | 2.82 | 536 | 62 |
| Jimmy Nelson R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.37 | 26.9% | 14.6% | 3.1% | .329 | 1.32 | 37.9% | 26.7% | 29 | -3.05 | 1.32 | 650 | 62 |
| Bryan Mitchell R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.49 | 20.6% | 12.0% | 2.9% | .305 | 5.01 | 14.4% | 3.9% | 39 | +0.52 | 2.70 | 481 | 62 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.61 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .287 | 4.00 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.39 | 3.35 | 129 | 62 |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.26 | 17.0% | 7.1% | 3.1% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 147 | 61 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 40 | 23.2% | 10.7% | 1.30 | 4.63 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Robert Stephenson ('23) | 6 | 57 | 26.2% | 9.9% | 1.39 | 4.33 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |