Hector Perez
P
Lehigh Valley IronPigs
+0.4
WAR
Age 30
RHP
6'3" / 223 lbs
AAA
peak 0.4 · 2026
ERA4.44
FIP4.44
xFIP12.26
SIERA6.40
K%23.8%
BB%10.3%
K-BB%13.5%
IP63
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2026
K†5555
FB-0.7
SL-0.7
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 19 | ROK | Greeneville Astros | 17 | 10 | 55 | 215 | 50 | 23 | 0 | 15.8% | 13.4% | 0.0% | 1.64 | 3.46 | +0.9 |
| 2016 | 20 | A | Quad Cities River Bandits | 7 | 7 | 31 | 138 | 44 | 21 | 1 | 23.6% | 18.0% | 1.0% | 4.60 | 3.94 | +0.4 |
| 2017 | 21 | A+ | Buies Creek Astros | 25 | 17 | 107 | 465 | 128 | 78 | 8 | 21.0% | 19.4% | 2.1% | 3.44 | 4.92 | +0.5 |
| 2018 | 22 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | 27 | 18 | 115 | 480 | 133 | 64 | 6 | 21.8% | 15.1% | 1.6% | 3.76 | 4.08 | +1.6 |
| 2019 | 23 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | 26 | 24 | 121 | 544 | 117 | 67 | 9 | 17.4% | 13.5% | 2.3% | 4.60 | 4.62 | +0.9 |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 1 | — | — | — | 10.80 | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA | Louisville Bats | 33 | 0 | 38 | 193 | 48 | 47 | 2 | 20.5% | 26.5% | 1.0% | 6.16 | 5.30 | -0.1 |
| 2022 | 26 | AA | Bowie Baysox | 22 | 1 | 33 | 141 | 48 | 19 | 4 | 25.3% | 16.4% | 3.3% | 3.51 | 4.83 | +0.0 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 43 | 2 | 65 | 286 | 82 | 41 | 9 | 25.7% | 14.9% | 3.5% | 4.13 | 4.72 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | TB | 11 | 11 | 63 | 266 | 63 | 27 | 8 | 23.8% | 10.3% | 3.0% | 4.44 | 4.44 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | TB | 11 | 11 | 61 | 257 | 60 | 26 | 8 | 23.5% | 10.3% | 3.1% | 4.47 | 4.50 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | TB | 58 | — | 58 | 247 | 57 | 26 | 8 | 23.2% | 10.4% | 3.2% | 4.53 | 4.58 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | TB | 56 | — | 56 | 236 | 54 | 25 | 8 | 22.9% | 10.5% | 3.3% | 4.60 | 4.66 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 34 | MLB | TB | 53 | — | 53 | 224 | 51 | 24 | 8 | 22.6% | 10.7% | 3.4% | 4.69 | 4.76 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 35 | MLB | TB | 50 | — | 50 | 211 | 47 | 23 | 7 | 22.2% | 10.9% | 3.5% | 4.81 | 4.88 | +0.0 |
| 2032 | 36 | MLB | TB | 47 | — | 47 | 198 | 43 | 22 | 7 | 21.8% | 11.2% | 3.6% | 4.94 | 5.02 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 201 | 79 | 568 | 2472 | 513 | 410 | 49 | 20.8% | 16.6% | 2.0% | 3.93 | 4.54 | +4.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 71 | 28 | 200 | 870 | 181 | 144 | 17 | 20.8% | 16.6% | 2.0% | 3.93 | 4.54 | +1.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Hector Perez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.44 | 23.8% | 10.3% | 3.0% | — | 4.58 | 23.2% | 12.9% | 175 | +0.14 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 87 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2027 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 86 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2029 · 4.47 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.47 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.9% | .263 | 3.98 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.49 | 3.98 | 104 | 85 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2027 · 3.38 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.38 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.98 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.60 | 3.38 | 212 | 84 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.24 | 22.2% | 11.1% | 2.9% | .349 | 3.54 | 17.4% | 8.5% | 65 | -0.70 | 3.05 | 227 | 82 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2027 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.68 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.22 | 3.46 | 160 | 82 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2028 · 3.33 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.33 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.4% | .342 | 4.98 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.65 | 3.33 | 122 | 82 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2028 · 3.45 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.45 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.18 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.27 | 2.48 | 147 | 81 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.72 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.6% | .287 | 3.88 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.16 | 3.38 | 129 | 81 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.62 | 22.3% | 11.0% | 1.8% | .247 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 224 | 81 |
| Javy Guerra R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.3% | .303 | 3.87 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.43 | 3.01 | 260 | 81 |
| Adam Warren R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.56 | 23.3% | 8.5% | 2.5% | .288 | 4.73 | 20.6% | 9.9% | 86 | +1.17 | 2.72 | 392 | 80 |
| Blake Wood R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.79 | 24.5% | 10.6% | 2.6% | .307 | 3.35 | 25.3% | 16.0% | 74 | -0.44 | 2.91 | 210 | 80 |
| Joakim Soria R 2027 · 3.48 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.48 | 23.5% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .258 | 2.91 | 26.6% | 18.9% | 183 | -0.57 | 2.00 | 380 | 80 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2029 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 80 |
| Ryan Tepera R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.84 | 25.9% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .282 | 3.13 | 28.4% | 19.9% | 104 | -0.71 | 2.27 | 445 | 79 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2027 · 5.21 FIP | 31 | SW | 5.21 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.6% | .253 | 3.95 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.26 | 3.80 | 132 | 79 |
| Blake Smith R 2024 · 3.63 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.63 | 22.4% | 8.6% | 2.4% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 124 | 78 |
| John Axford R 2028 · 3.28 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.28 | 24.8% | 11.2% | 1.6% | .333 | 3.94 | 21.5% | 11.1% | 141 | +0.66 | 3.28 | 197 | 78 |
| Drew Storen R 2025 · 3.81 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.81 | 19.5% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .289 | 4.32 | 19.4% | 8.4% | 10 | +0.51 | 2.26 | 172 | 78 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.