Malvin Pena
P
Harrisburg Senators
+0.4
WAR
Age 29
RHP
6'2" / 180 lbs
AA
peak 0.4 · 2026
ERA4.39
FIP4.39
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.7%
BB%9.5%
K-BB%13.2%
IP62
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2026
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 19 | ROK | DSL Nationals | 2 | 2 | 6 | 32 | 5 | 7 | 0 | — | — | — | 11.37 | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | ROK | GCL Nationals | 10 | 7 | 41 | 187 | 39 | 18 | 7 | 14.2% | 12.0% | 5.2% | 5.44 | 6.30 | -0.6 |
| 2018 | 21 | A | Hagerstown Suns | 6 | 6 | 30 | 133 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 15.0% | 3.5% | 0.9% | 3.60 | 2.76 | +0.7 |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ | Potomac Nationals | 23 | 23 | 107 | 477 | 87 | 38 | 20 | 14.0% | 9.2% | 5.3% | 6.20 | 5.99 | -0.8 |
| 2021 | 24 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | 30 | 0 | 53 | 247 | 39 | 27 | 9 | 12.5% | 12.2% | 3.1% | 5.81 | 5.31 | -0.2 |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | 35 | 0 | 51 | 197 | 59 | 16 | 5 | 23.4% | 9.2% | 3.0% | 3.00 | 3.93 | +0.6 |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 42 | 0 | 66 | 270 | 55 | 31 | 7 | 17.3% | 12.0% | 2.1% | 3.15 | 4.32 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 11 | 11 | 62 | 263 | 60 | 25 | 8 | 22.7% | 9.5% | 3.0% | 4.39 | 4.39 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | WSH | 11 | 11 | 60 | 255 | 58 | 25 | 8 | 22.6% | 9.6% | 3.0% | 4.42 | 4.45 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 58 | — | 58 | 247 | 55 | 24 | 8 | 22.4% | 9.7% | 3.1% | 4.47 | 4.51 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 56 | — | 56 | 237 | 53 | 23 | 7 | 22.2% | 9.8% | 3.2% | 4.54 | 4.59 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | WSH | 54 | — | 54 | 226 | 50 | 23 | 7 | 21.9% | 10.0% | 3.2% | 4.62 | 4.68 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 34 | MLB | WSH | 51 | — | 51 | 215 | 46 | 22 | 7 | 21.5% | 10.2% | 3.4% | 4.72 | 4.79 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 35 | MLB | WSH | 48 | — | 48 | 203 | 43 | 21 | 7 | 21.1% | 10.4% | 3.5% | 4.84 | 4.91 | +0.0 |
| 2033 | 36 | MLB | WSH | 45 | — | 45 | 190 | 39 | 20 | 7 | 20.7% | 10.7% | 3.6% | 4.96 | 5.05 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 148 | 38 | 354 | 1543 | 242 | 159 | 56 | 15.7% | 10.3% | 3.6% | 4.90 | 5.06 | +1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 84 | 21 | 200 | 871 | 137 | 90 | 32 | 15.7% | 10.3% | 3.6% | 4.90 | 5.06 | +0.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Malvin Pena (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.39 | 22.7% | 9.5% | 3.0% | — | 4.51 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 175 | +0.12 | — | — | — |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.03 | 24.4% | 10.9% | 2.9% | .311 | 2.38 | 20.9% | 12.6% | 25 | -1.65 | 2.38 | 160 | 88 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2028 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 88 |
| Pedro Beato R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.25 | 19.2% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .275 | 3.71 | 18.5% | 11.1% | 152 | -0.54 | 3.46 | 295 | 88 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2025 · 3.68 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.68 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .289 | 3.07 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -0.61 | 2.31 | 403 | 86 |
| Al Alburquerque R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.56 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.23 | 21.3% | 12.5% | 114 | -0.33 | 2.83 | 228 | 86 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2028 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.68 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.22 | 3.46 | 160 | 86 |
| Dalier Hinojosa R 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.41 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 1.4% | .283 | 4.31 | 18.7% | 6.1% | 24 | +0.90 | 3.41 | 104 | 86 |
| Drew Storen R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.81 | 19.5% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .289 | 4.32 | 19.4% | 8.4% | 10 | +0.51 | 2.26 | 172 | 85 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.92 | 21.7% | 7.6% | 3.1% | .272 | 3.62 | 22.3% | 11.3% | 62 | -0.30 | 3.62 | 224 | 85 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2028 · 3.38 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.38 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.98 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.60 | 3.38 | 212 | 84 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2029 · 3.33 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.33 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.4% | .342 | 4.98 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.65 | 3.33 | 122 | 84 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2027 · 3.72 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.72 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.6% | .287 | 3.88 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.16 | 3.38 | 129 | 83 |
| Blake Smith R 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.63 | 22.4% | 8.6% | 2.4% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 124 | 83 |
| Joakim Soria R 2028 · 3.48 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.48 | 23.5% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .258 | 2.91 | 26.6% | 18.9% | 183 | -0.57 | 2.00 | 380 | 83 |
| Anthony Bass R 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.40 | 23.6% | 9.1% | 2.1% | .356 | 3.44 | 20.7% | 14.2% | 141 | +0.04 | 2.83 | 432 | 83 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.22 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.22 | 27.5% | 10.8% | 1.9% | .259 | 3.21 | 25.6% | 17.1% | 210 | -0.01 | 2.80 | 410 | 83 |
| Luis García R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.77 | 20.6% | 10.9% | 1.9% | .281 | 3.74 | 21.6% | 12.6% | 179 | -0.03 | 2.26 | 602 | 83 |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.75 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .347 | 3.12 | 17.8% | 11.9% | 54 | -0.63 | 2.31 | 187 | 82 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2029 · 3.45 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.45 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.18 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.27 | 2.48 | 147 | 82 |
| Justin Miller R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.81 | 20.8% | 9.7% | 2.2% | .353 | 4.68 | 22.5% | 16.5% | 127 | +0.87 | 2.67 | 279 | 82 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.