Malvin Pena
P
Harrisburg Senators
Age 29
RHP
6'2" / 180 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 43 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119110vR 100
ERA4.39
FIP4.39
K%22.7%
BB%9.5%
K-BB%13.2%
ROS IP44
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 43 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 19 | ROK | DSL Nationals | 2 | 2 | 6 | 32 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 100% | 3.2 | 15.6% | 21.9% | -6.2% | 0.0% | 11.37 | 4.55 | — |
| 2016 | 19 | ROK | DSL Nationals | 2 | 2 | 6 | 32 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 100% | 3.2 | 15.6% | 21.9% | -6.2% | 0.0% | 11.37 | 4.84 | — |
| 2017 | 20 | ROK | GCL Nationals | 10 | 7 | 41 | 187 | 39 | 18 | 7 | 70% | 4.1 | 14.2% | 12.0% | 2.1% | 5.2% | 5.44 | 6.30 | — |
| 2017 | 20 | ROK | GCL Nationals | 10 | 7 | 41 | 187 | 39 | 18 | 7 | 70% | 4.1 | 20.9% | 9.6% | 11.2% | 3.7% | 5.44 | 4.72 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A | Hagerstown Suns | 6 | 6 | 30 | 133 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 5.0 | 15.0% | 3.5% | 11.5% | 0.8% | 3.60 | 2.72 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A | Hagerstown Suns | 6 | 6 | 30 | 133 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 5.0 | 20.3% | 3.0% | 17.3% | 0.8% | 3.60 | 2.13 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ | Potomac Nationals | 23 | 23 | 107 | 477 | 87 | 38 | 20 | 100% | 4.7 | 14.0% | 9.2% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.20 | 6.02 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ | Potomac Nationals | 23 | 23 | 107 | 477 | 87 | 38 | 20 | 100% | 4.7 | 18.2% | 8.0% | 10.3% | 4.2% | 6.20 | 4.96 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 30 | 0 | 53 | 247 | 39 | 27 | 9 | 0% | 1.8 | 12.5% | 12.2% | 0.3% | 3.4% | 5.81 | 5.48 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 30 | 0 | 53 | 247 | 39 | 27 | 9 | 0% | 1.8 | 15.8% | 10.9% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 5.81 | 5.38 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 0 | 51 | 197 | 59 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.5 | 23.4% | 9.2% | 14.2% | 2.9% | 3.00 | 3.91 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 0 | 51 | 197 | 59 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.5 | 29.9% | 8.1% | 21.8% | 2.5% | 3.00 | 3.00 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 0 | 66 | 270 | 55 | 31 | 7 | 0% | 1.6 | 17.3% | 12.0% | 5.4% | 1.9% | 3.15 | 4.20 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 0 | 66 | 270 | 55 | 31 | 7 | 0% | 1.6 | 20.4% | 11.5% | 8.9% | 2.6% | 3.15 | 4.23 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 42 | 0 | 44 | 185 | 42 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.7% | 9.5% | 13.2% | 2.9% | 4.39 | 4.39 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | WSH | 39 | 0 | 41 | 174 | 39 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 9.8% | 12.6% | 3.1% | 4.49 | 4.56 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 36 | 0 | 38 | 162 | 36 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 10.1% | 12.0% | 3.4% | 4.63 | 4.74 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 34 | 0 | 35 | 149 | 32 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.7% | 10.5% | 11.3% | 3.6% | 4.81 | 4.94 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | WSH | 12 | 0 | 13 | 55 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 9.8% | 12.6% | 3.1% | 4.49 | 4.56 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 19 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 10.1% | 12.0% | 3.4% | 4.63 | 4.74 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 22 | 0 | 23 | 97 | 21 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.7% | 10.5% | 11.3% | 3.6% | 4.81 | 4.94 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 53 | 0 | 56 | 235 | 52 | 24 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.0% | 10.2% | 11.8% | 3.4% | 4.67 | 4.40 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 187 | 86 | 29 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.0% | 10.2% | 11.8% | 3.4% | 4.67 | 4.40 | +2.3 | ||
| Career | — | 148 | 38 | 354 | 1543 | 242 | 159 | 56 | 26% | 2.4 | 15.7% | 10.3% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 4.90 | 5.06 | +1.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 84 | 21 | 200 | 871 | 137 | 90 | 32 | 26% | 2.4 | 15.7% | 10.3% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 4.90 | 5.06 | +0.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Malvin Pena (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.39 | 22.7% | 9.5% | 2.9% | — | 4.74 | 22.1% | 12.0% | 115 | +0.35 | — | — | — |
| Esmil Rogers R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.51 | 18.5% | 8.9% | 1.6% | .348 | 2.88 | 21.7% | 17.9% | 40 | -0.63 | 2.88 | 199 | 80 |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.76 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .347 | 2.99 | 17.8% | 11.9% | 54 | -0.77 | 2.22 | 187 | 80 |
| Bud Norris R 2027 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 79 |
| Tim Dillard R 2029 · 3.70 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.70 | 15.9% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .330 | 3.83 | 16.7% | 8.1% | 144 | +0.13 | 3.15 | 352 | 76 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.19 | 24.4% | 10.9% | 3.2% | .311 | 2.38 | 20.9% | 12.6% | 25 | -1.81 | 2.38 | 160 | 76 |
| Yoanner Negrin R 2028 · 4.02 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.02 | 15.1% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.39 | 15.0% | 8.5% | 270 | -0.63 | 3.19 | 485 | 75 |
| Dalier Hinojosa R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.56 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 1.7% | .283 | 4.38 | 18.7% | 6.1% | 24 | +0.82 | 3.56 | 104 | 74 |
| Chris Leroux R 2028 · 4.50 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.50 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .279 | 3.94 | 13.5% | 5.5% | 140 | -0.56 | 3.94 | 219 | 73 |
| Blake Smith R 2025 · 3.66 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.66 | 22.4% | 8.6% | 2.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.08 | 124 | 73 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2027 · 3.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.61 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .287 | 4.00 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.39 | 3.35 | 129 | 73 |
| Mike Wright Jr. R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.76 | 19.9% | 7.2% | 2.6% | .347 | 3.99 | 17.6% | 7.3% | 169 | +0.23 | 3.73 | 725 | 73 |
| Michael Mariot R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.42 | 21.8% | 7.5% | 4.0% | .328 | 4.58 | 17.7% | 9.5% | 136 | +0.16 | 2.32 | 676 | 72 |
| Alex Powers R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.01 | 25.0% | 10.3% | 3.1% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.80 | 264 | 71 |
| Gregory Infante R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.39 | 19.0% | 12.3% | 2.4% | .333 | 3.24 | 22.5% | 15.8% | 120 | -1.15 | 2.96 | 230 | 71 |
| Steve Johnson R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.30 | 20.3% | 8.9% | 3.2% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 152 | 71 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2025 · 4.03 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.03 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.8% | .289 | 3.03 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -1.00 | 2.27 | 426 | 71 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.07 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .241 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.01 | 3.28 | 149 | 71 |
| Peyton Gray R 2027 · 4.56 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.56 | 22.7% | 9.1% | 4.0% | .358 | 2.87 | 25.2% | 19.1% | 34 | -1.69 | 2.87 | 138 | 71 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2025 · 4.96 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.96 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.8% | .275 | 7.33 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +2.37 | 3.78 | 180 | 71 |
| Tyler Chatwood R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.94 | 22.8% | 11.4% | 2.4% | .278 | 3.42 | 27.3% | 14.2% | 51 | -0.52 | 3.22 | 537 | 70 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 40 | 22.3% | 10.0% | 1.25 | 4.57 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |