James Norwood prospect projection, MLE, ETA

James Norwood P Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders

Age 32 RHP 6'2" / 215 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 54 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115107vR 98

ERA4.40

FIP4.29

K%25.1%

BB%10.0%

K-BB%15.2%

ROS IP54

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 54 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4040

CMD5050

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7996.6

Whiff%

p7629.3%

p7025.9%

xwOBA vs

p340.330

FB-3.8

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	11	50	212	39	21	2	65%	2.9	12.8%	12.9%	-0.1%	1.4%	4.68	4.43	—
2015	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	11	50	212	39	21	2	65%	2.9	18.4%	9.9%	8.5%	0.9%	4.68	3.32	—
2016	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	0	36	162	43	10	0	0%	1.2	21.6%	7.9%	13.7%	0.0%	3.25	2.27	—
2016	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	0	36	162	43	10	0	0%	1.2	26.5%	6.2%	20.4%	0.0%	3.25	1.54	—
2017	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	58	245	60	25	2	0%	1.4	19.2%	11.6%	7.6%	1.1%	3.28	3.55	—
2017	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	0	58	245	60	25	2	0%	1.4	24.5%	10.2%	14.3%	0.8%	3.28	2.77	—
2018	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	51	0	61	264	67	28	3	0%	1.2	21.8%	11.3%	10.6%	1.4%	2.79	3.46	+0.8
2018	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	51	0	61	264	67	28	3	0%	1.2	25.4%	10.6%	14.8%	1.1%	2.79	2.92	+1.2
2019	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	0	67	284	92	37	10	0%	1.2	29.7%	12.7%	17.0%	3.9%	4.03	4.35	+0.2
2019	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	54	0	67	284	92	37	10	0%	1.2	32.4%	13.0%	19.4%	3.5%	4.03	3.95	+0.5
2020	26	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	3	0	2	9	0	1	0	0%	0.6	0.0%	11.1%	-11.1%	0.0%	16.20	4.51	+0.0
2020	26	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	3	0	2	9	0	1	0	0%	0.6	0.0%	11.1%	-11.1%	0.0%	16.20	4.90	-0.0
2021	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	50	214	74	24	3	0%	1.0	32.7%	11.5%	21.2%	1.5%	3.99	2.62	+1.1
2021	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	0	50	214	74	24	3	0%	1.0	34.6%	11.2%	23.4%	1.4%	3.99	2.36	+1.3
2022	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	38	173	46	20	2	0%	1.1	24.9%	11.9%	13.0%	1.1%	6.45	3.09	+0.7
2022	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	38	173	46	20	2	0%	1.1	26.6%	11.6%	15.0%	1.2%	6.45	2.94	+0.7
2023	29	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	22	0	23	117	36	16	7	0%	1.1	26.5%	12.3%	14.2%	6.5%	6.56	5.98	—
2023	29	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	22	0	23	117	36	16	7	0%	1.1	26.5%	12.3%	14.2%	6.5%	6.56	5.98	—
2023	29	AAA RAW	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	22	0	23	117	36	16	7	0%	1.1	30.8%	13.7%	17.1%	6.0%	6.56	5.97	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			48	0	44	215	46	26	3	0%	0.9	21.4%	12.1%	9.3%	1.4%	5.48	3.66	+0.5
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	32	MLB	NYY	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	25.1%	10.0%	15.2%	3.0%	4.40	4.29	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	33	MLB MLE	NYY	48	0	50	211	51	22	7	0%	1.0	24.1%	10.3%	13.8%	3.3%	4.50	4.57	-0.0
2028	34	MLB MLE	NYY	43	0	45	192	44	21	7	0%	1.1	23.2%	10.8%	12.4%	3.6%	4.71	4.86	-0.2
2029	35	MLB MLE	NYY	39	0	41	172	38	19	7	0%	1.0	22.2%	11.2%	11.0%	3.9%	4.97	5.16	-0.3
2027	33	MLB CTX	NYY	17	0	18	76	18	8	3	0%	1.1	24.1%	10.3%	13.8%	3.3%	4.50	4.57	-0.0
2028	34	MLB CTX	NYY	14	0	15	63	15	7	2	0%	1.1	23.2%	10.8%	12.4%	3.6%	4.71	4.86	-0.1
2029	35	MLB CTX	NYY	10	0	11	46	10	5	2	0%	1.1	22.2%	11.2%	11.0%	3.9%	4.97	5.16	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		90	0	89	402	90	46	10	0%	1.0	22.3%	11.4%	10.8%	2.4%	5.09	3.98	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		204	0	200	907	203	104	23	0%	1.0	22.3%	11.4%	10.8%	2.4%	5.09	3.98	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		301	11	384	1680	395	195	33	4%	1.3	23.5%	11.6%	11.9%	2.0%	4.17	3.67	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		157	6	200	874	206	101	17	4%	1.3	23.5%	11.6%	11.9%	2.0%	4.17	3.67	-0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
James Norwood (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.29	25.1%	10.0%	3.0%	—	4.84	23.2%	12.5%	136	+0.55	—	—	—
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	87
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	76
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	74
Jumbo Diaz R 2016 · 3.85 FIP	32	SU	3.85	22.3%	9.2%	2.7%	.247	3.28	23.0%	13.8%	141	-0.57	2.80	319	74
John Axford R 2015 · 3.20 FIP	32	SU	3.20	24.8%	11.2%	1.4%	.333	3.97	21.5%	11.1%	141	+0.77	1.90	518	71
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	70
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2017 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	20.4%	10.0%	1.8%	.331	6.14	17.9%	3.7%	41	+2.53	3.50	170	70
Kazuhiro Sasaki R 2000 · 3.93 FIP	32	SU	3.93	29.4%	9.8%	3.8%	.212	2.88	24.9%	19.3%	161	-1.05	2.76	223	70
James Hoyt R 2019 · 3.45 FIP	32	SU	3.45	22.2%	9.9%	1.8%	.355	5.63	22.1%	10.4%	50	+2.18	1.61	312	70
Yoshihisa Hirano R 2018 · 3.45 FIP	34	SU	3.45	22.5%	7.3%	2.4%	.242	3.97	24.6%	15.2%	65	+0.52	3.45	132	70
Arcenio Leon R 2019 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	21.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	115	70
Dan Winkler R 2022 · 3.87 FIP	32	SU	3.87	24.4%	14.0%	1.9%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	231	68
Mark Serrano R 2017 · 3.56 FIP	31	SU	3.56	21.9%	6.4%	2.7%	.240	5.25	20.2%	12.3%	42	+1.69	3.16	120	68
Dale Thayer R 2013 · 3.62 FIP	32	SU	3.62	23.7%	7.4%	2.9%	.287	3.85	20.6%	15.0%	103	+0.23	2.75	239	68
Huascar Brazobán R 2022 · 3.77 FIP	32	SU	3.77	28.5%	11.4%	3.0%	.275	3.49	23.3%	12.9%	187	-0.28	3.08	370	68
Sergio Santos R 2015 · 4.17 FIP	32	SU	4.17	24.7%	8.2%	3.9%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	1.36	178	67
Neil Wagner R 2016 · 4.05 FIP	32	SU	4.05	19.8%	12.3%	1.9%	.360	3.11	20.7%	12.1%	54	-0.94	3.11	135	66
Adrian Ramirez R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	31	SU	4.29	21.7%	6.3%	4.0%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.04	137	66
Chris Hatcher R 2017 · 4.31 FIP	32	SU	4.31	24.5%	7.4%	4.3%	.291	5.32	18.0%	8.4%	36	+1.01	2.51	246	65
Grant Sides R 2019 · 3.31 FIP	30	SU	3.31	21.7%	9.8%	1.5%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	159	65

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.2	59	23.3%	10.8%	1.16	4.78
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. ('16)	1.2	58	24.6%	11.1%	0.93	4.35
Justin Grimm ('22)	1.9	75	23.0%	10.1%	1.17	5.10
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Jorge Julio ('09)	2.3	58	21.7%	11.3%	1.25	4.43
Wesley Wright ('15)	1.5	51	22.0%	10.1%	1.11	4.16
Hansel Robles ('22)	2.1	61	25.3%	10.2%	1.20	4.11