Tylor Megill

P New York Mets

Age 32 RHP 6'7" / 230 lbs MLB Svc 4.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 0.9 · 2028 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

Overview

MLBSPD6040-MANArb-2FA 2029

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	28	MIX2 levels	31	31	153	5.40	4.68	17.2%	10.0%	0.4	K 17.0% · BB 9.8% · FIP 4.61
2024	29	MIX4 levels	27	26	127	3.84	3.17	29.5%	9.7%	2.7	K 27.0% · BB 9.7% · FIP 3.33
2025	30	MIX3 levels	20	20	88	4.18	3.07	29.8%	10.9%	2.0	K 27.4% · BB 11.0% · FIP 3.33
2027PROJ	32	MLBNYM	6	6	39	4.03	3.94	27.4%	10.3%	0.4
2028PROJ	33	MLBNYM	10	10	59	4.15	4.22	26.5%	10.8%	0.5
2029PROJ	34	MLBNYM	9	9	54	4.38	4.53	25.6%	11.3%	0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 5.1 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2028Service4.180First FA2029

2027Arb-2$3M2028Arb-3$4M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

K%88

Whiff%84

FB Velo62

xwOBA vs56

CompsMatt Shoemaker (age 32) · Elian Leyva (age 30) · Zack Segovia (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10698vR 89

ERA4.03

FIP3.94

K%27.4%

BB%10.3%

K-BB%17.0%

Proj IP39

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 39 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$0M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL4040

CMD5555

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6295.4

Whiff%

p8430.7%

p8829.2%

xwOBA vs

p560.306

FB+1.5 (62%)

SI (20%)

CU (7%)

SL-1.6 (23%)

CH-1.9 (7%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2021

Service 4.180 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-2	$3M	+0.4	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Arb-3	$4M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.0M		$3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	11	72	302	92	25	2	50%	3.3	22.2%	10.4%	11.9%	0.9%	3.52	3.02	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	11	72	302	92	25	2	50%	3.3	30.5%	8.3%	22.2%	0.7%	3.52	1.94	—
2021	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	26	130	543	158	39	22	100%	5.0	27.3%	7.4%	19.9%	4.1%	4.15	3.99	+1.4
2021	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	26	130	543	158	39	22	100%	5.0	29.1%	7.2%	21.9%	4.1%	4.15	3.77	+1.8
2022	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	12	57	240	65	16	8	55%	2.6	25.5%	6.5%	19.0%	3.5%	5.56	3.70	+0.8
2022	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	12	57	240	65	16	8	55%	2.6	27.1%	6.7%	20.4%	3.3%	5.56	3.49	+1.0
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	31	153	690	119	69	21	100%	4.9	17.0%	9.8%	7.1%	3.1%	5.40	4.61	+0.5
2023	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	31	153	690	119	69	21	100%	4.9	17.2%	10.0%	7.2%	3.0%	5.40	4.68	+0.4
2024	29	MIX MLE	4 levels	27	26	127	535	158	52	13	96%	4.7	27.0%	9.7%	17.4%	2.4%	3.84	3.33	+2.4
2024	29	MIX MLE	4 levels	27	26	127	535	158	52	13	96%	4.7	27.0%	9.7%	17.4%	2.4%	3.84	3.33	+2.4
2024	29	MIX RAW	4 levels	27	26	127	535	158	52	13	96%	4.7	29.5%	9.7%	19.8%	2.4%	3.84	3.17	+2.7
2025	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	20	88	396	118	43	8	100%	4.4	27.4%	11.0%	16.4%	2.1%	4.18	3.33	+1.7
2025	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	20	88	396	118	43	8	100%	4.4	27.4%	11.0%	16.4%	2.1%	4.18	3.33	+1.7
2025	30	MIX RAW	3 levels	20	20	88	396	118	43	8	100%	4.4	29.8%	10.9%	18.9%	2.0%	4.18	3.07	+2.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			88	81	410	1788	435	163	58	92%	4.7	24.3%	9.1%	15.2%	3.2%	4.46	4.01	+4.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	32	MLB	NYM	6	6	39	165	45	17	4	100%	6.5	27.4%	10.3%	17.0%	2.7%	4.03	3.94	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	NYM	10	10	59	251	66	27	7	100%	5.9	26.5%	10.8%	15.7%	2.9%	4.15	4.22	+0.5
2029	34	MLB MLE	NYM	9	9	54	228	58	26	7	100%	6.0	25.6%	11.3%	14.3%	3.2%	4.38	4.53	+0.2
2028	33	MLB CTX	NYM	10	10	59	249	66	27	7	100%	5.9	26.5%	10.8%	15.7%	2.9%	4.15	4.22	+0.5
2029	34	MLB CTX	NYM	9	9	54	228	58	26	7	100%	6.0	25.6%	11.3%	14.3%	3.2%	4.38	4.53	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		107	100	523	2267	560	216	73	93%	4.9	24.7%	9.5%	15.2%	3.2%	4.42	3.98	+5.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		41	38	200	867	214	83	28	93%	4.9	24.7%	9.5%	15.2%	3.2%	4.42	3.98	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		148	126	627	2706	646	250	76	85%	4.2	23.9%	9.2%	14.7%	2.8%	4.45	3.79	+5.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	40	200	864	206	80	24	85%	4.2	23.9%	9.2%	14.7%	2.8%	4.45	3.79	+1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tylor Megill (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.94	27.4%	10.3%	2.7%	—	4.37	26.1%	15.0%	114	+0.43	—	—	—
Matt Shoemaker R 2019 · 3.80 FIP	32	SP	3.80	22.2%	8.3%	2.8%	.181	5.06	18.8%	11.1%	159	+1.26	3.12	728	59
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	57
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	57
Stan Spencer R 2000 · 4.42 FIP	30	SP	4.42	19.2%	8.7%	3.4%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	119	57
Reinier Roibal R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	30	SP	4.91	17.5%	11.8%	3.3%	.426	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	133	56
Tyler Herron R 2017 · 4.02 FIP	30	SP	4.02	16.4%	8.7%	2.2%	.377	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	117	56
Bryan Evans R 2019 · 3.89 FIP	32	SP	3.89	18.7%	10.4%	1.9%	.450	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	231	55
Tim Adleman R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	31	SP	4.30	22.8%	7.8%	3.9%	.266	4.71	18.5%	11.1%	90	+0.41	3.63	605	55
Brandon Beachy R 2019 · 4.19 FIP	32	SP	4.19	17.4%	9.5%	2.5%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	1.97	364	54
Jose Oyervides R 2015 · 3.01 FIP	33	SP	3.01	19.1%	6.2%	1.4%	.333	4.09	21.9%	14.5%	184	+1.08	3.01	407	54
Aaron Wilkerson R 2021 · 3.33 FIP	32	SP	3.33	24.6%	5.6%	2.9%	.300	5.45	21.3%	15.4%	47	+2.12	2.75	902	53
Chuck Smith R 2001 · 3.99 FIP	31	SP	3.99	18.4%	8.1%	2.6%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	211	53
Dennis O'Grady R 2019 · 3.62 FIP	30	SP	3.62	17.2%	8.1%	1.7%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	52
Mitch Lively R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	31	SP-	3.47	17.0%	6.4%	1.8%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	2.39	158	52
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	51
Logan Duran R 2015 · 3.42 FIP	33	SP	3.42	15.8%	10.0%	0.7%	.287	3.77	15.3%	6.4%	95	+0.35	3.42	187	51
Danny Gutierrez R 2017 · 4.11 FIP	30	SP	4.11	15.1%	6.1%	2.8%	.362	—	—	—	—	—	3.34	239	50
Yohan Pino R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	31	SP-	4.13	17.8%	5.8%	3.3%	.312	5.33	15.2%	11.6%	35	+1.20	3.84	193	49
Odrisamer Despaigne R 2019 · 3.77 FIP	32	SP	3.77	19.4%	8.9%	2.2%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	689	49
Jeremy Hefner R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	30	SP	4.64	16.8%	9.1%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	322	49

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.8	71	24.9%	9.6%	1.23	4.39
John Henry Johnson ('78-'87, 6 WAR*)	3.0	75	24.6%*	9.6%*	1.15*	4.15*
Brad Peacock ('21)	2.8	93	24.7%	10.1%	1.27	4.11
Tom Acker ('56-'59, 3 WAR*)	1.9	95	23.8%*	9.3%*	1.17*	4.30*
Dave Hamilton ('72-'80, 2 WAR*)	3.5	78	21.3%*	10.2%*	1.13*	4.58*
Félix Peña ('21)	1.3	65	23.9%	8.5%	1.35	4.66
David Hernandez ('19)	3.2	65	23.9%	9.1%	1.22	4.12