Sam McWilliams — OGILVIE

Sam McWilliams P Worcester Red Sox

Age 30 RHP 6'7" / 230 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 19 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.95

FIP4.95

K%24.7%

BB%12.8%

K-BB%11.9%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 19 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	19	ROK MLE	GCL Phillies	7	7	33	134	21	5	1	100%	4.7	10.7%	4.7%	6.0%	1.0%	3.27	3.36	—
2015	19	ROK RAW	GCL Phillies	7	7	33	134	21	5	1	100%	4.7	15.7%	3.7%	11.9%	0.7%	3.27	2.68	—
2016	20	A MLE	Kane County Cougars	15	15	75	318	43	18	4	100%	5.0	10.0%	6.7%	3.3%	1.7%	3.98	4.02	—
2016	20	A RAW	Kane County Cougars	15	15	75	318	43	18	4	100%	5.0	13.5%	5.7%	7.9%	1.3%	3.98	3.37	—
2017	21	A MLE	Kane County Cougars	25	25	133	524	98	29	5	100%	5.3	13.8%	6.5%	7.3%	1.4%	2.84	3.52	—
2017	21	A RAW	Kane County Cougars	25	25	133	524	98	29	5	100%	5.3	18.7%	5.5%	13.2%	1.0%	2.84	2.77	—
2018	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	23	138	596	133	49	14	85%	5.1	17.8%	9.1%	8.7%	2.9%	4.38	4.34	—
2018	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	23	138	596	133	49	14	85%	5.1	22.3%	8.2%	14.1%	2.3%	4.38	3.56	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	19	132	583	109	46	10	73%	5.1	15.7%	8.5%	7.1%	1.8%	4.10	3.87	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	19	132	583	109	46	10	73%	5.1	18.7%	7.9%	10.8%	1.7%	4.10	3.48	—
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	2	49	243	56	48	8	6%	1.4	19.7%	21.0%	-1.4%	3.8%	8.27	6.21	—
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	2	49	243	56	48	8	6%	1.4	23.0%	19.8%	3.3%	3.3%	8.27	5.88	—
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	5	19	96	18	19	2	56%	2.1	16.2%	18.3%	-2.1%	2.7%	10.12	5.53	—
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	5	19	96	18	19	2	56%	2.1	18.8%	19.8%	-1.0%	2.1%	10.12	5.62	—
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	4	63	294	88	41	14	11%	1.8	25.1%	12.7%	12.4%	5.8%	6.82	5.78	—
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	4	63	294	88	41	14	11%	1.8	25.1%	12.7%	12.4%	5.8%	6.82	5.78	—
2024	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	4	63	294	88	41	14	11%	1.8	29.9%	13.9%	16.0%	4.8%	6.82	5.14	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	18	0	21	105	31	17	3	0%	1.1	24.5%	14.6%	9.9%	2.8%	5.66	4.43	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	18	0	21	105	31	17	3	0%	1.1	24.5%	14.6%	9.9%	2.8%	5.66	4.43	—
2025	29	AAA RAW	Nashville Sounds	18	0	21	105	31	17	3	0%	1.1	29.5%	16.2%	13.3%	2.9%	5.66	4.45	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	30	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	17	0	22	102	31	12	4	0%	1.3	25.2%	10.6%	14.6%	4.3%	4.84	4.68	—
YTD	30	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	17	0	22	102	31	12	4	0%	1.3	25.2%	10.6%	14.6%	4.3%	4.84	4.68	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	30	AAA RAW	BOS	17	0	22	102	31	12	4	0%	1.3	30.4%	11.8%	18.6%	3.9%	4.84	4.18	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	BOS	19	0	20	84	20	11	3	0%	1.1	24.1%	12.8%	11.4%	3.7%	5.01	5.09	-0.1
2027	31	MLB CTX	BOS	7	0	7	30	7	4	1	0%	1.0	24.1%	12.8%	11.4%	3.7%	5.01	5.09	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	0	7	31	7	4	1	0%	1.1	24.1%	12.8%	11.4%	3.7%	5.01	4.71	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	190	109	27	0%	1.1	24.1%	12.8%	11.4%	3.7%	5.01	4.71	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		216	100	684	2995	505	298	78	46%	3.2	16.9%	9.9%	6.9%	2.6%	4.64	4.37	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		63	29	200	876	148	87	23	46%	3.2	16.9%	9.9%	6.9%	2.6%	4.64	4.37	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sam McWilliams (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.95	24.7%	12.8%	3.5%	—	5.09	24.1%	11.4%	20	+0.14	—	—	—
Bud Norris R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	30	SW	4.68	18.8%	8.2%	3.9%	.327	3.78	24.2%	15.5%	233	-0.90	3.51	316	68
Steve Johnson R 2017 · 4.53 FIP	29	SW	4.53	20.3%	8.9%	3.7%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	2.22	152	65
Carlos Frías R 2019 · 4.42 FIP	29	SP-	4.42	16.9%	11.1%	2.4%	.369	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	204	65
Josh Zeid R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	30	SW	5.35	18.3%	10.8%	4.4%	.334	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	265	63
André Rienzo R 2017 · 4.40 FIP	29	SW	4.40	18.9%	15.6%	1.7%	.301	5.33	17.9%	6.1%	29	+0.93	3.53	200	63
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	29	SP-	4.01	17.3%	10.9%	1.8%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	272	63
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	61
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	61
Phillippe Aumont R 2018 · 5.05 FIP	29	SU	5.05	22.8%	10.5%	4.6%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.61	147	60
Justin Masterson R 2015 · 4.10 FIP	30	SP-	4.10	18.2%	10.5%	2.2%	.307	3.73	17.3%	6.4%	196	-0.37	3.50	269	60
Aldo Montes R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	29	SW	4.69	18.2%	10.6%	3.3%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	4.69	210	60
Chris Leroux R 2015 · 4.20 FIP	31	SU	4.20	15.2%	8.6%	2.4%	.279	4.08	13.5%	5.5%	140	-0.12	4.08	219	60
Nick Tropeano R 2021 · 4.24 FIP	30	SP-	4.24	21.5%	12.1%	2.6%	.302	4.45	20.8%	1.9%	21	+0.21	2.34	446	59
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2019 · 4.70 FIP	29	SP-	4.70	15.8%	12.6%	2.5%	.265	—	—	—	—	—	3.22	221	59
Hector Velázquez R 2019 · 4.82 FIP	30	SW	4.82	19.6%	12.3%	3.3%	.292	3.81	19.2%	10.9%	25	-1.01	2.75	536	58
Javy Guerra R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	30	SU	4.29	21.3%	13.9%	2.3%	.303	3.95	19.5%	13.0%	193	-0.34	2.95	260	58
Derek Eitel R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	29	SP-	4.72	17.2%	16.0%	1.9%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	138	58
Mike Bolsinger R 2017 · 4.26 FIP	29	SW	4.26	20.2%	9.4%	3.0%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	327	58
Mike Broadway R 2017 · 4.73 FIP	30	SU	4.73	18.3%	10.2%	3.4%	.245	4.65	23.0%	12.4%	49	-0.08	1.74	195	58
Fernando Nieve R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	33	SU	4.27	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.43	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.84	1.96	112	58