Alex Lange

P Kansas City Royals

Age 31 RHP 6'3" / 202 lbs MLB

Overview

MLBRP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	28	MIX2 levels	30	0	27	3.95	3.14	26.6%	14.5%	0.5	K 23.3% · BB 18.9% · FIP 3.52
2025	29	MIX3 levels	27	2	26	4.44	3.29	29.5%	13.4%	0.4	K 25.4% · BB 12.9% · FIP 3.99
2026	30	MLBKC	59	0	60	6.75	5.57	21.8%	12.0%	-0.7
2027PROJ	31	MLBKC	61	0	64	5.13	5.14	25.0%	12.9%	-0.4
2028PROJ95% MLB	32	MLBKC	53	0	56	5.29	5.40	24.2%	13.3%	-0.5
2029PROJ95% MLB	33	MLBKC	49	0	51	5.52	5.68	23.3%	13.8%	-0.6

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.1 · Next 3 projected WAR -1.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo70

Whiff%63

K%47

xwOBA vs15

CompsMike Broadway (age 31) · Jim Miller (age 30) · Chris Hatcher (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 115

ERA5.13

FIP5.14

K%25.0%

BB%12.9%

K-BB%12.1%

Proj IP64

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 64 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF7070

CTRL2525

CMD4040

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7095.9

Whiff%

p6327.3%

p4721.8%

xwOBA vs

p150.353

CT (13%)

SI (24%)

CU (3%)

SL (31%)

FB-1.0 (34%)

CH-1.8 (22%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	22	A+ MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	23	23	120	495	101	38	6	100%	5.2	15.7%	8.8%	6.9%	1.6%	3.74	3.78	—
2018	22	A+ RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	23	23	120	495	101	38	6	100%	5.2	20.4%	7.7%	12.7%	1.2%	3.74	3.02	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	18	102	457	94	53	8	67%	3.8	16.2%	13.0%	3.2%	2.0%	5.45	4.46	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	18	102	457	94	53	8	67%	3.8	20.6%	11.6%	9.0%	1.8%	5.45	3.83	—
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	55	0	57	262	66	33	5	0%	1.0	24.0%	12.9%	11.0%	2.0%	4.24	3.81	+0.5
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	55	0	57	262	66	33	5	0%	1.0	25.2%	12.6%	12.6%	1.9%	4.24	3.66	+0.6
2022	26	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	71	0	63	271	82	30	5	0%	0.9	30.3%	11.1%	19.2%	1.9%	3.41	3.00	+1.2
2022	26	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	71	0	63	271	82	30	5	0%	0.9	30.3%	11.1%	19.2%	1.8%	3.41	2.96	+1.2
2023	27	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	67	0	66	288	79	44	6	0%	1.0	27.4%	15.3%	12.2%	2.2%	3.68	3.91	+0.5
2023	27	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	67	0	66	288	79	44	6	0%	1.0	27.4%	15.3%	12.2%	2.1%	3.68	3.89	+0.5
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	0	27	124	33	18	1	0%	0.9	23.3%	18.9%	4.4%	0.0%	3.95	3.52	+0.3
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	0	27	124	33	18	1	0%	0.9	23.3%	18.9%	4.4%	0.0%	3.95	3.52	+0.3
2024	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	0	27	124	33	18	1	0%	0.9	26.6%	14.5%	12.1%	0.8%	3.95	3.14	+0.5
2025	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	2	26	112	33	15	2	7%	1.0	25.4%	12.9%	12.6%	2.6%	4.44	3.99	+0.2
2025	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	2	26	112	33	15	2	7%	1.0	25.4%	12.9%	12.6%	2.6%	4.44	3.99	+0.2
2025	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	2	26	112	33	15	2	7%	1.0	29.5%	13.4%	16.1%	1.8%	4.44	3.29	+0.4
2026	30	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	59	0	60	275	60	33	13	0%	1.0	21.8%	12.0%	9.8%	5.1%	6.75	5.58	-0.7
2026	30	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	59	0	60	275	60	33	13	0%	1.0	21.8%	12.0%	9.8%	5.1%	6.75	5.58	-0.7
2026	30	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	59	0	60	275	60	33	13	0%	1.0	21.8%	12.0%	9.8%	4.7%	6.75	5.57	-0.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			255	0	245	1092	282	141	29	0%	1.0	25.8%	12.9%	12.9%	2.7%	4.45	4.06	+1.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	KC	61	0	64	270	68	35	11	0%	1.0	25.0%	12.9%	12.1%	3.9%	5.13	5.14	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	KC	56	0	59	248	60	33	10	0%	1.0	24.2%	13.3%	10.9%	4.1%	5.29	5.40	-0.6
2029	33	MLB MLE	KC	51	0	54	228	53	31	10	0%	1.1	23.3%	13.8%	9.6%	4.4%	5.52	5.68	-0.7
2028	32	MLB CTX	KC	53	0	56	236	57	32	10	0%	1.1	24.2%	13.3%	10.9%	4.1%	5.29	5.40	-0.5
2029	33	MLB CTX	KC	49	0	51	215	50	30	10	0%	1.0	23.3%	13.8%	9.6%	4.4%	5.52	5.68	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		357	0	352	1544	389	202	48	0%	1.0	25.2%	13.1%	12.1%	3.1%	4.74	4.35	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		203	0	200	878	221	115	27	0%	1.0	25.2%	13.1%	12.1%	3.1%	4.74	4.35	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		359	43	523	2284	493	282	51	12%	1.5	21.6%	12.3%	9.2%	2.2%	4.47	4.06	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		137	16	200	873	189	108	19	12%	1.5	21.6%	12.3%	9.2%	2.2%	4.47	4.06	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alex Lange (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.14	25.0%	12.9%	3.9%	—	5.53	23.8%	10.2%	113	+0.39	—	—	—
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	84
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	79
Chris Hatcher R 2016 · 4.61 FIP	31	SU	4.61	23.8%	9.4%	4.2%	.283	4.69	22.0%	13.8%	96	+0.08	2.51	246	79
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	78
Austin Adams R 2019 · 5.80 FIP	32	SU	5.80	20.8%	10.6%	5.7%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	162	77
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	77
Manny Acosta R 2012 · 4.49 FIP	31	SU	4.49	21.3%	11.1%	3.2%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	350	76
Dustin Molleken R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	31	SU	4.04	19.6%	12.1%	1.9%	.276	3.38	24.3%	11.9%	16	-0.66	3.38	129	74
Jeff Fulchino R 2011 · 4.44 FIP	31	SU	4.44	20.4%	11.1%	3.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	178	74
Brian Sanches R 2010 · 4.24 FIP	31	SU	4.24	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.217	4.35	19.6%	8.5%	62	+0.11	3.39	229	74
Ryan Cook R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	31	SU	3.96	25.1%	10.8%	2.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	2.60	292	73
Ryan Brasier R 2019 · 4.12 FIP	31	SU	4.12	25.3%	8.3%	3.8%	.278	3.56	24.3%	18.2%	99	-0.56	2.31	426	73
Neil Wagner R 2016 · 4.05 FIP	32	SU	4.05	19.8%	12.3%	1.9%	.360	3.11	20.7%	12.1%	54	-0.94	3.11	135	72
David Carpenter R 2016 · 4.49 FIP	31	SU	4.49	21.4%	12.8%	2.9%	.333	3.89	21.5%	11.9%	49	-0.60	2.66	275	71
Sergio Santos R 2014 · 5.29 FIP	31	SU	5.29	27.4%	15.1%	4.7%	.411	4.17	24.7%	16.5%	16	-1.12	1.36	178	70
Andrew Robinson R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SU	4.32	23.4%	8.8%	3.8%	.245	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	160	70
Jason Bulger R 2010 · 4.36 FIP	31	SU	4.36	22.5%	13.5%	2.6%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	106	69
Blake Treinen R 2019 · 4.98 FIP	31	SU	4.98	22.2%	13.5%	3.7%	.302	2.60	27.3%	19.4%	98	-2.38	1.53	601	69
Simon Castro R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	29	SU	3.99	28.3%	10.3%	3.6%	.256	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	185	68
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	67

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	60	25.2%	13.2%	1.26	4.81
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Amir Garrett ('24)	1.7	55	26.7%	13.3%	1.52	4.95
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*