Nick Howard prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Nick Howard P Mississippi Braves

Age 33 RHP 6'4" / 215 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 7 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.74

FIP4.74

K%21.5%

BB%11.3%

K-BB%10.2%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 7 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	22	A+ MLE	Daytona Tortugas	24	5	38	189	31	50	0	21%	1.6	12.6%	30.4%	-17.8%	0.0%	6.63	5.89	—
2015	22	A+ RAW	Daytona Tortugas	24	5	38	189	31	50	0	21%	1.6	16.4%	26.5%	-10.1%	0.0%	6.63	5.42	—
2016	23	A+ MLE	Daytona Tortugas	25	0	20	112	20	31	1	0%	0.8	13.8%	31.8%	-18.1%	1.1%	6.75	6.55	—
2016	23	A+ RAW	Daytona Tortugas	25	0	20	112	20	31	1	0%	0.8	17.9%	27.7%	-9.8%	0.9%	6.75	6.40	—
2018	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	53	242	39	30	5	0%	1.4	12.6%	14.1%	-1.5%	2.5%	5.13	5.19	—
2018	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	0	53	242	39	30	5	0%	1.4	16.1%	12.4%	3.7%	2.1%	5.13	4.56	—
2019	26	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	3	0	3	21	2	3	0	0%	1.1	9.5%	14.3%	-4.8%	0.0%	10.80	4.11	—
2019	26	AA RAW	Chattanooga Lookouts	3	0	3	21	2	3	0	0%	1.1	9.5%	14.3%	-4.8%	0.0%	10.80	4.60	—
2021	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	44	198	51	36	5	0%	1.0	21.4%	19.4%	2.0%	2.8%	4.50	5.29	—
2021	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	0	44	198	51	36	5	0%	1.0	25.8%	18.2%	7.6%	2.5%	4.50	4.71	—
2022	29	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	14	0	13	80	14	14	1	0%	1.0	15.4%	18.4%	-3.0%	1.1%	10.80	4.72	—
2022	29	AAA RAW	Louisville Bats	14	0	13	80	14	14	1	0%	1.0	17.5%	17.5%	0.0%	1.2%	10.80	5.12	—
2023	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	0	21	96	16	12	1	0%	1.3	11.4%	20.6%	-9.2%	2.4%	3.92	6.05	—
2023	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	0	21	96	16	12	1	0%	1.3	11.4%	20.6%	-9.2%	2.4%	3.92	6.05	—
2023	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	0	21	96	16	12	1	0%	1.3	16.7%	12.5%	4.2%	1.0%	3.92	3.92	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	33	MLB	ATL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.5%	11.3%	10.2%	3.0%	4.74	4.74	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	34	MLB MLE	ATL	19	0	20	84	18	10	3	0%	1.1	21.1%	11.6%	9.5%	3.3%	4.86	4.97	-0.1
2027	34	MLB CTX	ATL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.1%	11.6%	9.5%	3.3%	4.86	4.97	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	MLE		162	5	192	938	137	203	16	3%	1.2	14.7%	21.7%	-7.0%	1.7%	5.81	5.54	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		169	5	200	977	143	212	17	3%	1.2	14.7%	21.7%	-7.0%	1.7%	5.81	5.54	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nick Howard (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.74	21.5%	11.3%	3.0%	—	4.97	21.1%	9.5%	20	+0.23	—	—	—
Arcenio Leon R 2019 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	21.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	115	83
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2017 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	20.4%	10.0%	1.8%	.331	6.14	17.9%	3.7%	41	+2.53	3.50	170	82
Leo Rosales R 2015 · 3.99 FIP	34	SU	3.99	18.1%	10.8%	1.9%	.261	4.24	7.8%	-0.4%	22	+0.25	3.85	130	81
Miguel Mejia R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	31	SU	4.41	15.7%	10.7%	2.3%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	108	78
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	77
Mark Serrano R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	33	SU	5.25	20.2%	7.9%	5.2%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	120	75
Ryan Brasier R 2021 · 4.85 FIP	33	SU	4.85	18.0%	8.0%	4.1%	.286	3.16	23.7%	17.9%	150	-1.69	2.31	426	75
Jim Henderson R 2016 · 4.55 FIP	33	SU	4.55	25.8%	9.0%	4.5%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	1.86	167	74
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	74
Tony Barnette R 2017 · 3.56 FIP	33	SU	3.56	22.6%	7.1%	2.7%	.335	2.61	25.0%	20.2%	26	-0.95	2.61	144	73
Jason Bulger R 2010 · 4.36 FIP	31	SU	4.36	22.5%	13.5%	2.6%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	106	73
Mike Buddie R 2002 · 4.26 FIP	31	SU	4.26	15.1%	7.6%	2.7%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	123	73
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	73
Jean Machi R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	33	SU	4.56	16.3%	8.6%	3.2%	.276	4.24	18.5%	11.9%	128	-0.32	2.16	306	73
Mike James R 2001 · 4.52 FIP	33	SU	4.52	15.0%	8.7%	2.9%	.299	4.84	19.6%	9.8%	11	+0.32	2.87	314	72
Juan Sandoval R 2015 · 3.82 FIP	34	SU	3.82	15.4%	6.0%	2.3%	.294	3.33	17.4%	8.8%	116	-0.49	3.24	225	72
Fernando Nieve R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	33	SU	4.27	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.43	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.84	1.96	287	71
Hector Navarro R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	35	SU	4.35	15.0%	5.4%	3.3%	.281	3.00	15.2%	9.0%	81	-1.35	2.30	126	70
Toby Borland R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	33	SU	5.28	17.7%	8.1%	4.8%	.256	4.28	20.9%	12.8%	18	-1.00	2.92	248	70
Adrian Ramirez R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	31	SU	4.29	21.7%	6.3%	4.0%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.04	137	70