Jonathan Holder prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Jonathan Holder P Salt Lake Bees

Age 33 RHP 6'2" / 232 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 118 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.33

FIP4.51

K%21.9%

BB%9.5%

K-BB%12.4%

ROS IP119

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 118 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5555

CMD5050

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1692.1

Whiff%

p4224.1%

p1013.9%

xwOBA vs

p310.334

CT+1.5

CH-0.8

FB-2.0

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	21	118	481	90	25	4	91%	5.1	14.1%	5.7%	8.4%	1.1%	2.52	3.21	—
2015	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	21	118	481	90	25	4	91%	5.1	18.7%	5.2%	13.5%	0.8%	2.52	2.65	—
2016	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	50	0	74	274	106	11	4	0%	1.5	35.2%	3.5%	31.8%	1.6%	2.08	1.41	+2.8
2016	23	MIX RAW	4 levels	50	0	74	274	106	11	4	0%	1.5	38.7%	4.0%	34.7%	1.5%	2.08	1.38	+2.9
2017	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	55	241	61	15	6	0%	1.1	24.3%	6.4%	17.9%	2.3%	3.25	3.13	+0.9
2017	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	0	55	241	61	15	6	0%	1.1	25.3%	6.2%	19.1%	2.5%	3.25	3.12	+0.9
2018	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	64	2	72	296	68	17	5	3%	1.1	22.1%	5.9%	16.2%	1.4%	3.12	2.74	+1.6
2018	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	64	2	72	296	68	17	5	3%	1.1	23.0%	5.7%	17.2%	1.7%	3.12	2.82	+1.5
2019	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	1	54	233	61	12	9	2%	1.2	25.4%	5.2%	20.2%	3.7%	5.53	3.62	+0.6
2019	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	1	54	233	61	12	9	2%	1.2	26.2%	5.2%	21.0%	3.9%	5.53	3.68	+0.6
2020	27	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	18	0	22	101	14	10	3	0%	1.2	13.9%	9.9%	4.0%	2.8%	4.98	4.71	-0.0
2020	27	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	18	0	22	101	14	10	3	0%	1.2	13.9%	9.9%	4.0%	3.0%	4.98	4.99	-0.1
2021	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	2	1	2	10	1	1	1	50%	1.0	10.0%	10.0%	0.0%	10.0%	4.50	9.01	—
2021	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	2	1	2	10	1	1	1	50%	1.0	10.0%	10.0%	0.0%	10.0%	4.50	10.10	—
2022	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	1	21	105	23	12	2	6%	1.3	17.8%	12.3%	5.5%	2.3%	8.57	4.44	—
2022	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	1	21	105	23	12	2	6%	1.3	21.9%	11.4%	10.5%	1.9%	8.57	3.86	—
2023	30	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	46	5	67	310	76	39	8	11%	1.4	21.1%	11.3%	9.8%	2.8%	5.40	4.31	—
2023	30	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	46	5	67	310	76	39	8	11%	1.4	21.1%	11.3%	9.8%	2.8%	5.40	4.31	—
2023	30	AAA RAW	Salt Lake Bees	46	5	67	310	76	39	8	11%	1.4	24.5%	12.6%	11.9%	2.6%	5.40	4.13	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			157	2	177	761	165	47	21	1%	1.1	21.7%	6.2%	15.5%	2.8%	4.38	3.58	+2.0
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	33	MLB	LAA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.9%	9.5%	12.4%	3.1%	4.33	4.51	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	34	MLB MLE	LAA	120	0	126	530	111	53	18	0%	1.0	21.0%	10.0%	11.0%	3.4%	4.62	4.82	-0.4
2028	35	MLB MLE	LAA	107	0	113	476	95	50	18	0%	1.1	20.1%	10.6%	9.5%	3.7%	4.94	5.16	-0.8
2027	34	MLB CTX	LAA	7	0	7	30	6	3	1	0%	1.0	21.0%	10.0%	11.0%	3.4%	4.62	4.82	-0.0
2028	35	MLB CTX	LAA	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	20.1%	10.6%	9.5%	3.7%	4.94	5.16	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		165	2	185	795	172	50	22	1%	1.1	21.6%	6.3%	15.3%	2.8%	4.39	3.61	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		178	2	200	861	186	54	24	1%	1.1	21.6%	6.3%	15.3%	2.8%	4.39	3.61	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		311	31	484	2051	447	141	43	10%	1.6	21.8%	6.9%	14.9%	2.1%	3.74	3.27	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		129	13	200	848	185	58	18	10%	1.6	21.8%	6.9%	14.9%	2.1%	3.74	3.27	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jonathan Holder (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.51	21.9%	9.5%	3.1%	—	4.98	20.6%	10.3%	238	+0.47	—	—	—
Tony Barnette R 2017 · 3.56 FIP	33	SU	3.56	22.6%	7.1%	2.7%	.335	2.61	25.0%	20.2%	26	-0.95	2.61	144	68
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	67
Felipe Arredondo R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	32	SU	4.65	16.2%	7.1%	3.7%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	337	66
Giovanni Carrara R 2001 · 4.06 FIP	33	SU	4.06	20.1%	6.0%	3.5%	.249	4.28	15.7%	7.9%	173	+0.22	2.50	462	65
D.J. Carrasco R 2010 · 3.45 FIP	33	SU	3.45	19.7%	9.4%	1.5%	.275	4.47	12.0%	6.7%	49	+1.02	3.23	490	64
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2017 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	20.4%	10.0%	1.8%	.331	6.14	17.9%	3.7%	41	+2.53	3.50	170	64
Jean Machi R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	33	SU	4.56	16.3%	8.6%	3.2%	.276	4.24	18.5%	11.9%	128	-0.32	2.16	306	64
Rafael Martín R 2017 · 3.40 FIP	33	SU	3.40	20.4%	5.1%	2.5%	.305	4.71	22.5%	16.5%	47	+1.31	2.94	227	63
Rafael Betancourt R 2008 · 4.12 FIP	33	SU	4.12	20.7%	6.5%	3.6%	.304	2.37	31.4%	27.3%	181	-1.75	1.79	686	63
Chris Jakubauskas R 2011 · 4.42 FIP	32	SW	4.42	15.7%	7.9%	3.0%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	165	63
Aquilino López R 2008 · 3.70 FIP	33	SU	3.70	17.7%	5.2%	2.6%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	207	62
Tyler Sturdevant R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	31	SU	4.48	13.5%	6.7%	3.0%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	149	62
Juan Sandoval R 2015 · 3.82 FIP	34	SU	3.82	15.4%	6.0%	2.3%	.294	3.33	17.4%	8.8%	116	-0.49	3.24	225	62
Ivan Maldonado R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	35	SW	4.60	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.269	5.41	6.4%	-3.3%	104	+0.81	4.60	172	61
Jared Burton R 2014 · 3.90 FIP	33	SU	3.90	16.9%	8.1%	2.2%	.263	3.99	25.1%	15.7%	14	+0.09	3.09	367	61
Shawn Camp R 2009 · 3.73 FIP	33	SU	3.73	17.4%	7.5%	2.1%	.272	3.57	14.4%	9.7%	216	-0.16	2.79	589	61
Jake Sanchez R 2023 · 4.70 FIP	33	SU	4.70	20.3%	10.6%	3.6%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	1.86	361	61
Blake Parker R 2018 · 4.12 FIP	33	SU	4.12	25.4%	6.5%	4.3%	.290	4.12	24.9%	16.5%	121	+0.00	2.52	406	61
Jim Miller R 2015 · 3.95 FIP	33	SU	3.95	18.8%	4.1%	3.5%	.275	5.43	20.4%	6.3%	17	+1.48	3.95	140	60
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	60

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,179 pitcher careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.8	79	21.3%	9.0%	1.22	4.54
Adam Conley ('21)	2.2	87	19.8%	9.4%	1.16	4.71
Scott Sanders ('99)	3.4	97	21.2%	9.3%	1.23	4.86
Daniel Norris ('23)	2.9	73	21.5%	8.9%	1.39	4.73
Randall Delgado ('18)	2.7	78	20.1%	8.8%	1.11	4.10
Brian Matusz ('16)	2.6	76	19.8%	8.7%	1.34	4.92
Juan Nicasio ('20)	3.6	80	21.3%	8.3%	1.04	4.71