Jonathan Holder
P
Salt Lake Bees
Age 33
RHP
6'2" / 232 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 118 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122113vR 104
ERA4.37
FIP4.56
K%22.0%
BB%9.9%
K-BB%12.1%
ROS IP119
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 118 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1692.1
Whiff%
p4224.1%
K%
p1013.9%
xwOBA vs
p310.334
CT+1.5
CH-0.8
FB-2.0
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 23 | 21 | 118 | 481 | 90 | 25 | 4 | 91% | 5.1 | 14.1% | 5.7% | 8.4% | 1.3% | 2.52 | 3.36 | — |
| 2015 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 23 | 21 | 118 | 481 | 90 | 25 | 4 | 91% | 5.1 | 18.7% | 5.2% | 13.5% | 0.8% | 2.52 | 2.65 | — |
| 2016 | 23 | MIX | 4 levels | 50 | 0 | 74 | 274 | 106 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.5 | 35.2% | 3.5% | 31.8% | 1.5% | 2.08 | 1.41 | +3.0 |
| 2016 | 23 | MIX | 4 levels | 50 | 0 | 74 | 274 | 106 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.5 | 38.7% | 4.0% | 34.7% | 1.5% | 2.08 | 1.38 | +3.0 |
| 2017 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 0 | 55 | 241 | 61 | 15 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.3% | 6.4% | 17.9% | 2.2% | 3.25 | 3.09 | +0.9 |
| 2017 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 0 | 55 | 241 | 61 | 15 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.3% | 6.2% | 19.1% | 2.5% | 3.25 | 3.12 | +0.9 |
| 2018 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 64 | 2 | 72 | 296 | 68 | 17 | 5 | 3% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 5.9% | 16.2% | 1.4% | 3.12 | 2.73 | +1.7 |
| 2018 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 64 | 2 | 72 | 296 | 68 | 17 | 5 | 3% | 1.1 | 23.0% | 5.7% | 17.2% | 1.7% | 3.12 | 2.82 | +1.7 |
| 2019 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 1 | 54 | 233 | 61 | 12 | 9 | 2% | 1.2 | 25.4% | 5.2% | 20.2% | 3.6% | 5.53 | 3.59 | +0.6 |
| 2019 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 1 | 54 | 233 | 61 | 12 | 9 | 2% | 1.2 | 26.2% | 5.2% | 21.0% | 3.9% | 5.53 | 3.68 | +0.5 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | New York Yankees | 18 | 0 | 22 | 101 | 14 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 13.9% | 9.9% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 4.98 | 4.70 | -0.0 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | New York Yankees | 18 | 0 | 22 | 101 | 14 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 13.9% | 9.9% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 4.98 | 4.99 | -0.1 |
| 2021 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 1.0 | 10.0% | 10.0% | 0.0% | 10.0% | 4.50 | 9.01 | — |
| 2021 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 1.0 | 10.0% | 10.0% | 0.0% | 10.0% | 4.50 | 10.10 | — |
| 2022 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 1 | 21 | 105 | 23 | 12 | 2 | 6% | 1.3 | 17.8% | 12.3% | 5.5% | 2.4% | 8.57 | 4.45 | — |
| 2022 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 1 | 21 | 105 | 23 | 12 | 2 | 6% | 1.3 | 21.9% | 11.4% | 10.5% | 1.9% | 8.57 | 3.86 | — |
| 2023 | 30 | AAA | Salt Lake Bees | 46 | 5 | 67 | 310 | 76 | 39 | 8 | 11% | 1.4 | 21.6% | 13.2% | 8.4% | 2.8% | 5.40 | 4.50 | — |
| 2023 | 30 | AAA | Salt Lake Bees | 46 | 5 | 67 | 310 | 76 | 39 | 8 | 11% | 1.4 | 24.5% | 12.6% | 11.9% | 2.6% | 5.40 | 4.13 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | LAA | 131 | 0 | 138 | 583 | 128 | 58 | 18 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.0% | 9.9% | 12.1% | 3.1% | 4.37 | 4.56 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | LAA | 120 | 0 | 126 | 530 | 112 | 55 | 18 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.1% | 10.4% | 10.7% | 3.4% | 4.66 | 4.86 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | LAA | 107 | 0 | 113 | 476 | 96 | 52 | 18 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.1% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 3.7% | 4.98 | 5.20 | +0.3 |
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | LAA | 7 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.1% | 10.4% | 10.7% | 3.4% | 4.66 | 4.86 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | LAA | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.1% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 3.7% | 4.98 | 5.20 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 165 | 2 | 185 | 795 | 172 | 51 | 22 | 1% | 1.1 | 21.7% | 6.4% | 15.3% | 2.8% | 4.40 | 3.61 | +3.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 178 | 2 | 200 | 861 | 186 | 55 | 24 | 1% | 1.1 | 21.7% | 6.4% | 15.3% | 2.8% | 4.40 | 3.61 | +4.2 | ||
| Career | — | 311 | 31 | 484 | 2051 | 448 | 147 | 43 | 10% | 1.6 | 21.8% | 7.1% | 14.7% | 2.1% | 3.74 | 3.32 | +11.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 129 | 13 | 200 | 848 | 185 | 61 | 18 | 10% | 1.6 | 21.8% | 7.1% | 14.7% | 2.1% | 3.74 | 3.32 | +4.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jonathan Holder (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.56 | 22.0% | 9.9% | 3.1% | — | 5.02 | 20.6% | 10.0% | 238 | +0.46 | — | — | — |
| Bryan Shaw R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.40 | 21.3% | 11.4% | 3.0% | .274 | 3.99 | 19.7% | 8.3% | 169 | -0.41 | 2.78 | 596 | 72 |
| Carlos Torres R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.52 | 23.0% | 8.0% | 2.5% | .252 | 4.01 | 18.9% | 10.0% | 186 | +0.49 | 2.78 | 326 | 70 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2029 · 4.09 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.09 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .267 | 6.61 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.52 | 4.09 | 145 | 68 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.99 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 122 | 68 |
| Tony Barnette R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.58 | 22.6% | 7.1% | 2.7% | .335 | 2.63 | 25.0% | 20.2% | 26 | -0.95 | 2.63 | 144 | 68 |
| Manny Acosta R 2028 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 68 |
| Steve Cishek R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.03 | 21.3% | 10.5% | 2.6% | .234 | 3.81 | 23.2% | 12.9% | 155 | -0.22 | 2.80 | 453 | 68 |
| Blake Wood R 2024 · 3.52 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.52 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.5% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 210 | 67 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2028 · 3.51 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.51 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .290 | 3.93 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.42 | 3.51 | 219 | 67 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.77 | 19.5% | 10.0% | 1.9% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.15 | 272 | 67 |
| Craig Stammen R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.32 | 22.5% | 7.6% | 3.9% | .257 | 2.99 | 23.9% | 19.8% | 185 | -1.33 | 1.87 | 407 | 67 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.50 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .276 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.44 | 3.92 | 186 | 66 |
| Felipe Arredondo R 2025 · 4.91 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.91 | 16.2% | 7.1% | 4.2% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.93 | 337 | 65 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2025 · 3.77 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.77 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .331 | 5.83 | 17.9% | 3.7% | 41 | +2.06 | 3.37 | 170 | 65 |
| Ryan Cook R 2024 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 65 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.44 | 24.8% | 12.0% | 1.7% | .356 | 4.68 | 23.0% | 9.8% | 66 | +1.24 | 2.73 | 410 | 64 |
| Javy Guerra R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.95 | 19.9% | 4.9% | 3.5% | .277 | 4.37 | 18.6% | 8.6% | 16 | +0.42 | 2.95 | 260 | 64 |
| Logan Kensing R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.55 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.5% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.49 | 2.77 | 172 | 63 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2025 · 4.62 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.62 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.1% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 221 | 63 |
| Rafael Martín R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.43 | 20.4% | 5.1% | 2.6% | .305 | 4.60 | 22.5% | 16.5% | 47 | +1.17 | 2.85 | 227 | 63 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 125 | 21.1% | 10.4% | 1.30 | 4.65 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez ('17) | 3 | 156 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 1.32 | 5.33 |
| Nate Karns ('17) | 3 | 96 | 24.2% | 9.3% | 1.22 | 4.24 |
| Jason Vargas ('19) | 4 | 116 | 18.5% | 8.2% | 1.38 | 4.57 |
| Félix Hernández ('19) | 5 | 134 | 20.0% | 8.1% | 1.39 | 4.48 |