Jonathan Holder
P
Salt Lake Bees
+0.2
WAR
Age 33
RHP
6'2" / 232 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA4.44
FIP4.44
xFIP5.56
SIERA5.40
K%23.0%
BB%10.0%
K-BB%13.0%
IP60
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
STUF5050
CTRL5555
CMD5050
K†5050
FB Velo
p1692.1
Whiff%
p4224.1%
K%
p1013.9%
xwOBA vs
p310.334
CT+1.5
CH-0.8
FB-2.0
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 22 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 23 | 21 | 118 | 481 | 90 | 25 | 4 | 14.1% | 5.7% | 1.1% | 2.52 | 3.23 | +2.8 |
| 2016 | 23 | MLB | New York Yankees | 50 | 0 | 74 | 274 | 106 | 11 | 4 | 35.2% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 2.08 | 1.42 | +3.1 |
| 2017 | 24 | MLB | New York Yankees | 49 | 0 | 55 | 241 | 61 | 15 | 6 | 24.3% | 6.4% | 2.3% | 3.25 | 3.14 | +1.1 |
| 2018 | 25 | MLB | New York Yankees | 64 | 2 | 72 | 296 | 68 | 17 | 5 | 22.1% | 5.9% | 1.4% | 3.12 | 2.73 | +1.9 |
| 2019 | 26 | MLB | New York Yankees | 43 | 1 | 54 | 233 | 61 | 12 | 9 | 25.4% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 5.53 | 3.69 | +0.8 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | New York Yankees | 18 | 0 | 22 | 101 | 14 | 10 | 3 | 13.9% | 9.9% | 2.2% | 4.98 | 4.40 | +0.1 |
| 2021 | 28 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | 4.50 | — | — |
| 2022 | 29 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 16 | 1 | 21 | 105 | 23 | 12 | 2 | 17.8% | 12.3% | 2.3% | 8.57 | 4.44 | +0.1 |
| 2023 | 30 | AAA | Salt Lake Bees | 46 | 5 | 67 | 310 | 76 | 39 | 8 | 21.6% | 13.2% | 2.8% | 5.40 | 4.51 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | LAA | 60 | — | 60 | 253 | 54 | 25 | 8 | 21.4% | 9.9% | 3.1% | 4.37 | 4.60 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | LAA | 57 | — | 57 | 241 | 50 | 24 | 8 | 20.7% | 10.1% | 3.2% | 4.59 | 4.74 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | LAA | 54 | — | 54 | 227 | 45 | 23 | 7 | 20.0% | 10.3% | 3.3% | 4.77 | 4.89 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | LAA | 50 | — | 50 | 212 | 41 | 22 | 7 | 19.2% | 10.6% | 3.4% | 4.94 | 5.06 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 311 | 31 | 484 | 2051 | 448 | 147 | 42 | 21.8% | 7.1% | 2.1% | 3.74 | 3.30 | +11.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 129 | 13 | 200 | 848 | 185 | 61 | 17 | 21.8% | 7.1% | 2.1% | 3.74 | 3.30 | +4.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jonathan Holder (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.60 | 21.4% | 9.9% | 3.1% | — | 4.89 | 20.0% | 9.7% | 161 | +0.29 | — | — | — |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.82 | 19.5% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.17 | 272 | 87 |
| Manny Acosta R 2028 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.09 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.07 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -1.02 | 3.07 | 102 | 86 |
| Tony Barnette R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.61 | 22.6% | 7.1% | 2.8% | .335 | 2.56 | 25.0% | 20.2% | 26 | -1.05 | 2.56 | 144 | 84 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.63 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .276 | 4.24 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.39 | 4.11 | 186 | 84 |
| Ryan Cook R 2024 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 83 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2028 · 3.50 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.50 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .290 | 3.90 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.40 | 3.50 | 219 | 83 |
| Steve Cishek R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.16 | 21.3% | 10.5% | 2.8% | .234 | 3.75 | 23.2% | 12.9% | 155 | -0.41 | 2.89 | 453 | 83 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 82 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.63 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 1.8% | .331 | 6.11 | 17.9% | 3.7% | 41 | +2.48 | 3.45 | 170 | 82 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.31 | 21.3% | 11.4% | 2.9% | .274 | 4.08 | 19.7% | 8.3% | 169 | -0.23 | 2.86 | 596 | 82 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.98 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 122 | 81 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2029 · 4.12 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.12 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .267 | 6.46 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.34 | 4.12 | 145 | 80 |
| Logan Kensing R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.61 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.55 | 2.72 | 172 | 80 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2025 · 4.60 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.60 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.0% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.33 | 221 | 79 |
| Hector Ambriz R 2025 · 3.55 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.55 | 16.0% | 6.4% | 1.8% | .273 | 6.40 | 10.4% | 2.9% | 91 | +2.85 | 3.55 | 155 | 78 |
| Jair Jurrjens R 2024 · 4.27 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.27 | 16.3% | 7.9% | 2.8% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.27 | 125 | 78 |
| Felipe Arredondo R 2025 · 4.68 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.68 | 16.2% | 7.1% | 3.7% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.93 | 337 | 78 |
| Josh Lueke R 2027 · 4.14 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.14 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 3.6% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.32 | 107 | 77 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2027 · 3.82 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.82 | 15.4% | 6.0% | 2.3% | .294 | 3.34 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 116 | -0.48 | 3.21 | 225 | 77 |
| Arcenio Leon R 2025 · 3.52 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.52 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 2.2% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 115 | 77 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.