Jonathan Holder — OGILVIE

Jonathan Holder P Salt Lake Bees

Age 33 RHP 6'2" / 232 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 12 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.34

FIP4.52

K%21.8%

BB%9.5%

K-BB%12.3%

ROS IP12

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 12 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5555

CMD5050

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1692.1

Whiff%

p4224.1%

p1013.9%

xwOBA vs

p310.334

CT+1.5

CH-0.8

FB-2.0

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	21	118	481	90	25	4	91%	5.1	14.1%	5.7%	8.4%	1.1%	2.52	3.21	—
2015	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	21	118	481	90	25	4	91%	5.1	18.7%	5.2%	13.5%	0.8%	2.52	2.65	—
2016	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	50	0	74	274	106	11	4	0%	1.5	35.2%	3.5%	31.8%	1.6%	2.08	1.41	+2.8
2016	23	MIX RAW	4 levels	50	0	74	274	106	11	4	0%	1.5	38.7%	4.0%	34.7%	1.5%	2.08	1.38	+2.9
2017	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	55	241	61	15	6	0%	1.1	24.3%	6.4%	17.9%	2.3%	3.25	3.13	+0.9
2017	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	0	55	241	61	15	6	0%	1.1	25.3%	6.2%	19.1%	2.5%	3.25	3.12	+0.9
2018	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	64	2	72	296	68	17	5	3%	1.1	22.1%	5.9%	16.2%	1.4%	3.12	2.74	+1.6
2018	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	64	2	72	296	68	17	5	3%	1.1	23.0%	5.7%	17.2%	1.7%	3.12	2.82	+1.5
2019	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	1	54	233	61	12	9	2%	1.2	25.4%	5.2%	20.2%	3.7%	5.53	3.62	+0.6
2019	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	1	54	233	61	12	9	2%	1.2	26.2%	5.2%	21.0%	3.9%	5.53	3.68	+0.6
2020	27	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	18	0	22	101	14	10	3	0%	1.2	13.9%	9.9%	4.0%	2.8%	4.98	4.71	-0.0
2020	27	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	18	0	22	101	14	10	3	0%	1.2	13.9%	9.9%	4.0%	3.0%	4.98	4.99	-0.1
2021	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	2	1	2	10	1	1	1	50%	1.0	10.0%	10.0%	0.0%	10.0%	4.50	9.01	—
2021	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	2	1	2	10	1	1	1	50%	1.0	10.0%	10.0%	0.0%	10.0%	4.50	10.10	—
2022	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	1	21	105	23	12	2	6%	1.3	17.8%	12.3%	5.5%	2.3%	8.57	4.44	—
2022	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	1	21	105	23	12	2	6%	1.3	21.9%	11.4%	10.5%	1.9%	8.57	3.86	—
2023	30	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	46	5	67	310	76	39	8	11%	1.4	20.3%	11.3%	9.0%	2.8%	5.40	4.37	—
2023	30	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	46	5	67	310	76	39	8	11%	1.4	20.3%	11.3%	9.0%	2.8%	5.40	4.37	—
2023	30	AAA RAW	Salt Lake Bees	46	5	67	310	76	39	8	11%	1.4	24.5%	12.6%	11.9%	2.6%	5.40	4.13	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			157	2	177	761	165	47	21	1%	1.1	21.7%	6.2%	15.5%	2.8%	4.38	3.58	+2.0
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	33	MLB	LAA	11	0	12	51	11	5	2	0%	1.1	21.8%	9.5%	12.3%	3.1%	4.34	4.52	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	34	MLB MLE	LAA	120	0	126	530	111	53	18	0%	1.0	20.9%	10.0%	10.9%	3.4%	4.63	4.83	-0.4
2028	35	MLB MLE	LAA	107	0	113	476	95	50	18	0%	1.1	19.9%	10.6%	9.4%	3.7%	4.95	5.17	-0.8
2027	34	MLB CTX	LAA	7	0	7	30	6	3	1	0%	1.0	20.9%	10.0%	10.9%	3.4%	4.63	4.83	-0.0
2028	35	MLB CTX	LAA	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	19.9%	10.6%	9.4%	3.7%	4.95	5.17	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		165	2	185	795	172	50	22	1%	1.1	21.6%	6.3%	15.3%	2.8%	4.39	3.61	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		178	2	200	861	186	54	24	1%	1.1	21.6%	6.3%	15.3%	2.8%	4.39	3.61	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		311	31	484	2051	444	141	43	10%	1.6	21.7%	6.9%	14.8%	2.1%	3.74	3.28	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		129	13	200	848	184	58	18	10%	1.6	21.7%	6.9%	14.8%	2.1%	3.74	3.28	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jonathan Holder (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.52	21.8%	9.5%	3.1%	—	4.99	20.4%	10.2%	238	+0.47	—	—	—
Carlos Torres R 2016 · 3.40 FIP	33	SU	3.40	23.0%	8.0%	2.2%	.252	3.99	18.9%	10.0%	186	+0.59	2.89	326	70
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	4.15	145	69
Ross Ohlendorf R 2016 · 4.93 FIP	33	SU	4.93	23.4%	10.7%	4.5%	.254	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	122	68
Bryan Shaw R 2021 · 4.39 FIP	33	SU	4.39	21.3%	11.4%	3.0%	.274	3.93	19.2%	8.7%	169	-0.46	2.78	596	68
Manny Acosta R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	35	SU	4.19	18.1%	9.1%	2.7%	.273	3.08	23.2%	9.9%	44	-1.11	3.08	102	68
Tony Barnette R 2017 · 3.56 FIP	33	SU	3.56	22.6%	7.1%	2.7%	.335	2.61	25.0%	20.2%	26	-0.95	2.61	144	68
Craig Stammen R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	33	SU	4.12	22.5%	7.6%	3.6%	.257	2.86	23.9%	19.8%	185	-1.26	1.82	407	67
Santiago Casilla R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	35	SU	3.50	25.4%	8.6%	2.7%	.290	3.97	22.4%	12.7%	161	+0.47	3.50	219	67
Joe Blanton R 2015 · 3.45 FIP	34	SW	3.45	22.4%	4.6%	3.0%	.272	3.70	23.5%	17.0%	124	+0.25	3.01	240	67
Jean Machi R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	33	SU	4.56	16.3%	8.6%	3.2%	.276	4.24	18.5%	11.9%	128	-0.32	4.12	186	67
Felipe Arredondo R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	32	SU	4.65	16.2%	7.1%	3.7%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	337	66
Blake Wood R 2017 · 3.44 FIP	31	SU	3.44	25.3%	9.3%	2.4%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	210	66
Ryan Cook R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	31	SU	3.96	25.1%	10.8%	2.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	102	65
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2017 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	20.4%	10.0%	1.8%	.331	6.14	17.9%	3.7%	41	+2.53	3.50	170	64
Javy Guerra R 2019 · 3.95 FIP	33	SU	3.95	19.9%	4.9%	3.5%	.277	4.37	18.6%	8.6%	16	+0.42	2.95	260	64
Logan Kensing R 2015 · 3.56 FIP	33	SU	3.56	17.6%	8.8%	1.5%	.270	3.06	17.9%	10.0%	124	-0.50	2.73	172	64
Rafael Martín R 2017 · 3.40 FIP	33	SU	3.40	20.4%	5.1%	2.5%	.305	4.71	22.5%	16.5%	47	+1.31	2.94	227	63
Josh Lueke R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	34	SU	4.11	20.4%	6.4%	3.5%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	107	63
Clayton Mortensen R 2017 · 4.59 FIP	32	SU	4.59	23.2%	14.2%	3.0%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	221	63
Steve Cishek R 2019 · 4.12 FIP	33	SU	4.12	21.3%	10.5%	2.7%	.234	3.81	23.2%	12.9%	155	-0.31	2.86	453	63

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.9	125	20.9%	10.0%	1.30	4.62
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Ian Anderson ('22)	1.4	91	22.5%	10.4%	0.96	3.97
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Kyle Wright ('23)	1.2	83	22.4%	8.9%	1.12	3.97
Josiah Gray ('23)	1.9	126	22.6%	10.8%	1.88	4.64