Grades · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 0 | 48 | 186 | 56 | 15 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.8% | 9.4% | 13.4% | 1.1% | 2.08 | 2.94 | — |
| 2015 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 0 | 48 | 186 | 56 | 15 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 30.1% | 8.1% | 22.0% | 1.1% | 2.08 | 2.24 | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AA | Trenton Thunder | 42 | 0 | 58 | 239 | 78 | 24 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 26.4% | 11.0% | 15.4% | 1.5% | 1.70 | 3.07 | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AA | Trenton Thunder | 42 | 0 | 58 | 239 | 78 | 24 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 32.6% | 10.0% | 22.6% | 1.3% | 1.70 | 2.33 | — |
| 2017 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 0 | 63 | 258 | 60 | 27 | 5 | 0% | 1.7 | 20.0% | 11.1% | 8.9% | 1.9% | 3.27 | 3.85 | — |
| 2017 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 0 | 63 | 258 | 60 | 27 | 5 | 0% | 1.7 | 23.3% | 10.5% | 12.8% | 1.9% | 3.27 | 3.51 | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 37 | 0 | 60 | 251 | 59 | 25 | 5 | 0% | 1.6 | 20.7% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 2.0% | 3.45 | 3.78 | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 37 | 0 | 60 | 251 | 59 | 25 | 5 | 0% | 1.6 | 23.5% | 10.0% | 13.5% | 2.0% | 3.45 | 3.47 | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 40 | 0 | 61 | 247 | 94 | 31 | 6 | 0% | 1.5 | 33.5% | 13.2% | 20.3% | 2.3% | 2.49 | 3.19 | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 40 | 0 | 61 | 247 | 94 | 31 | 6 | 0% | 1.5 | 38.1% | 12.6% | 25.5% | 2.4% | 2.49 | 2.82 | — |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 6 | 0 | 9 | 37 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 0% | 1.6 | 18.9% | 13.5% | 5.4% | 8.1% | 5.79 | 7.66 | -0.3 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 6 | 0 | 9 | 37 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 0% | 1.6 | 18.9% | 13.5% | 5.4% | 8.1% | 5.79 | 7.39 | -0.3 |
| 2021 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 61 | 0 | 62 | 256 | 57 | 34 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.6% | 14.1% | 8.5% | 2.3% | 2.92 | 4.21 | +0.3 |
| 2021 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 61 | 0 | 62 | 256 | 57 | 34 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.3% | 13.3% | 9.0% | 2.3% | 2.92 | 4.17 | +0.3 |
| 2022 | 29 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 22 | 2 | 24 | 86 | 25 | 5 | 0 | 9% | 1.1 | 29.1% | 5.8% | 23.3% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 1.38 | +0.9 |
| 2022 | 29 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 22 | 2 | 24 | 86 | 25 | 5 | 0 | 9% | 1.1 | 29.1% | 5.8% | 23.3% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 1.66 | +0.8 |
| 2024 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 6 | 54 | 232 | 42 | 18 | 10 | 14% | 1.2 | 15.8% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 5.3% | 6.04 | 5.61 | -0.7 |
| 2024 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 6 | 54 | 232 | 42 | 18 | 10 | 14% | 1.2 | 18.1% | 7.8% | 10.3% | 4.3% | 6.04 | 4.96 | -0.3 |
| 2025 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 0 | 18 | 88 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 10.8% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 1.9% | 5.50 | 3.82 | +0.2 |
| 2025 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 0 | 18 | 88 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 13.6% | 3.4% | 10.2% | 3.4% | 5.50 | 4.43 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | LAD | 51 | 0 | 54 | 226 | 34 | 14 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.1% | 6.2% | 8.9% | 3.2% | 4.75 | 4.75 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | LAD | 46 | 0 | 49 | 206 | 29 | 14 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 14.2% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 3.5% | 4.93 | 5.06 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | LAD | 42 | 0 | 44 | 185 | 24 | 13 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 13.2% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 5.21 | 5.39 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | LAD | 3 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 14.2% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 3.5% | 4.93 | 5.06 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 13.2% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 5.21 | 5.39 | — |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 100 | 2 | 108 | 441 | 100 | 49 | 13 | 2% | 1.1 | 22.6% | 11.1% | 11.6% | 3.1% | 3.32 | 4.27 | +1.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 185 | 4 | 200 | 819 | 186 | 91 | 24 | 2% | 1.1 | 22.6% | 11.1% | 11.6% | 3.1% | 3.32 | 4.27 | +2.6 | ||
| Career | — | 349 | 8 | 458 | 1880 | 428 | 199 | 44 | 2% | 1.3 | 22.8% | 10.6% | 12.2% | 2.3% | 3.11 | 3.79 | +8.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 153 | 3 | 200 | 822 | 187 | 87 | 19 | 2% | 1.3 | 22.8% | 10.6% | 12.2% | 2.3% | 3.11 | 3.79 | +3.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| J.P. Feyereisen (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.75 | 15.1% | 6.2% | 3.2% | — | 5.22 | 13.7% | 6.7% | 92 | +0.47 | — | — | — |
| Hector Navarro R 2028 · 4.75 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.75 | 15.0% | 5.4% | 4.1% | .281 | 2.93 | 15.2% | 9.0% | 81 | -1.82 | 2.30 | 126 | 79 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2027 · 3.77 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.77 | 15.4% | 6.0% | 2.2% | .294 | 3.35 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 116 | -0.42 | 3.17 | 225 | 78 |
| Junichi Tazawa R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.22 | 17.0% | 8.4% | 2.7% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.90 | 227 | 77 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2024 · 4.80 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.80 | 13.5% | 6.7% | 3.6% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 149 | 77 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.50 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .276 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.44 | 3.92 | 186 | 77 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.77 | 18.0% | 8.0% | 4.0% | .286 | 3.18 | 23.7% | 17.9% | 150 | -1.59 | 2.27 | 426 | 76 |
| Fernando Salas R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.83 | 17.6% | 5.3% | 2.8% | .278 | 4.70 | 20.8% | 15.5% | 52 | +0.87 | 2.80 | 288 | 76 |
| Ronald Belisario R 2025 · 3.70 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.70 | 11.8% | 6.3% | 1.4% | .254 | 2.10 | 18.4% | 14.0% | 48 | -1.60 | 2.10 | 126 | 75 |
| Matt Albers R 2026 · 5.23 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.23 | 12.7% | 7.6% | 4.1% | .318 | 4.18 | 23.7% | 15.5% | 155 | -1.05 | 3.15 | 244 | 75 |
| Miguel Socolovich R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.59 | 18.4% | 4.7% | 2.6% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.60 | 283 | 75 |
| Pedro Rodriguez R 2024 · 3.95 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.95 | 14.7% | 4.9% | 2.7% | .368 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 145 | 75 |
| Brian Schlitter R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.23 | 14.8% | 6.3% | 2.9% | .331 | 4.76 | 14.9% | 5.8% | 48 | +0.53 | 3.20 | 244 | 74 |
| Manny Acosta R 2028 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 74 |
| Casey Fien R 2026 · 5.11 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.11 | 15.8% | 4.0% | 5.2% | .330 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 136 | 74 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.77 | 19.5% | 10.0% | 1.9% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.15 | 272 | 73 |
| Blaine Boyer R 2027 · 3.78 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.78 | 12.3% | 5.6% | 1.8% | .265 | 4.08 | 12.5% | 5.9% | 144 | +0.30 | 3.21 | 209 | 73 |
| Miguel Mejia R 2024 · 4.23 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.23 | 15.7% | 10.7% | 2.0% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.46 | 108 | 73 |
| George Kontos R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.84 | 14.0% | 3.4% | 2.7% | .280 | 5.10 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 46 | +1.26 | 3.56 | 290 | 73 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 72 |
| Felipe Arredondo R 2025 · 4.91 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.91 | 16.2% | 7.1% | 4.2% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.93 | 337 | 72 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 49 | 14.2% | 6.7% | 1.35 | 4.95 |
| Austin Pruitt ('23) | 5 | 61 | 16.9% | 5.6% | 1.22 | 4.45 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| JC Ramírez ('17) | 3 | 83 | 17.0% | 7.7% | 1.30 | 4.33 |
| Josh Fleming ('24) | 5 | 51 | 14.6% | 7.5% | 1.17 | 4.77 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Chris Rusin ('18) | 4 | 89 | 17.9% | 7.1% | 1.01 | 4.43 |