Drew Carlton
P
San Diego Padres
Age 30
RHP
6'1" / 215 lbs
MLB
peak 0.2 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 22 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116107vR 97
ERA4.23
FIP4.25
K%23.3%
BB%8.9%
K-BB%14.4%
ROS IP22
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 22 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1992.3
Whiff%
p3222.8%
K%
p4321.2%
xwOBA vs
p450.317
FB+3.8
SL-1.3
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 0 | 11 | 44 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.6 | 20.5% | 2.3% | 18.2% | 0.0% | 0.82 | 1.66 | — |
| 2017 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 0 | 11 | 44 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.6 | 20.5% | 2.3% | 18.2% | 0.0% | 0.82 | 1.74 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 68 | 270 | 68 | 11 | 0 | 0% | 1.7 | 19.4% | 5.1% | 14.3% | 0.0% | 2.26 | 2.10 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 68 | 270 | 68 | 11 | 0 | 0% | 1.7 | 25.2% | 4.1% | 21.1% | 0.0% | 2.26 | 1.58 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 45 | 0 | 68 | 266 | 65 | 17 | 3 | 0% | 1.5 | 19.8% | 7.0% | 12.8% | 0.9% | 1.46 | 2.79 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 45 | 0 | 68 | 266 | 65 | 17 | 3 | 0% | 1.5 | 24.4% | 6.4% | 18.0% | 1.1% | 1.46 | 2.51 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 2 | 56 | 227 | 50 | 14 | 6 | 5% | 1.5 | 20.7% | 5.0% | 15.7% | 2.4% | 3.05 | 3.30 | +0.8 |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 2 | 56 | 227 | 50 | 14 | 6 | 5% | 1.5 | 22.0% | 6.2% | 15.9% | 2.6% | 3.05 | 3.46 | +0.7 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 51 | 2 | 67 | 277 | 74 | 10 | 10 | 4% | 1.3 | 24.1% | 4.3% | 19.8% | 3.8% | 4.43 | 3.72 | +0.8 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 51 | 2 | 67 | 277 | 74 | 10 | 10 | 4% | 1.3 | 26.7% | 3.6% | 23.1% | 3.6% | 4.43 | 3.28 | +1.1 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 28 | 1 | 41 | 164 | 41 | 11 | 3 | 4% | 1.5 | 23.2% | 7.2% | 16.1% | 2.0% | 3.54 | 3.15 | +0.7 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 28 | 1 | 41 | 164 | 41 | 11 | 3 | 4% | 1.5 | 25.0% | 6.7% | 18.3% | 1.8% | 3.54 | 2.85 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | SD | 21 | 0 | 22 | 94 | 22 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.3% | 8.9% | 14.4% | 2.9% | 4.23 | 4.25 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | SD | 20 | 0 | 21 | 88 | 20 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.6% | 9.3% | 13.3% | 3.2% | 4.39 | 4.49 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | SD | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 19 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.6% | 9.3% | 13.3% | 3.2% | 4.39 | 4.49 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 39 | 0 | 53 | 219 | 45 | 18 | 7 | 0% | 1.4 | 20.4% | 8.1% | 12.3% | 3.0% | 4.03 | 4.06 | +0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 147 | 0 | 200 | 832 | 171 | 68 | 27 | 0% | 1.4 | 20.4% | 8.1% | 12.3% | 3.0% | 4.03 | 4.06 | +3.1 | ||
| Career | — | 207 | 5 | 310 | 1248 | 266 | 69 | 22 | 2% | 1.5 | 21.3% | 5.5% | 15.8% | 1.7% | 2.81 | 2.95 | +8.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 133 | 3 | 200 | 804 | 171 | 44 | 14 | 2% | 1.5 | 21.3% | 5.5% | 15.8% | 1.7% | 2.81 | 2.95 | +5.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Drew Carlton (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.25 | 23.3% | 8.9% | 2.9% | — | 4.49 | 22.6% | 13.3% | 21 | +0.24 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2029 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 82 |
| David Hernandez R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.32 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.0% | .287 | 3.20 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.12 | 2.56 | 268 | 81 |
| Adam Warren R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.76 | 23.3% | 8.5% | 2.8% | .288 | 4.75 | 20.6% | 9.9% | 86 | +0.99 | 2.71 | 392 | 80 |
| Blake Parker R 2027 · 3.36 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.36 | 28.1% | 8.5% | 2.8% | .269 | 3.84 | 28.4% | 21.3% | 195 | +0.48 | 2.61 | 339 | 79 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 78 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2028 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.26 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.99 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.73 | 3.26 | 122 | 78 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2027 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 77 |
| Joakim Soria R 2027 · 3.58 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.58 | 23.5% | 6.6% | 3.0% | .258 | 2.93 | 26.6% | 18.9% | 183 | -0.65 | 2.01 | 380 | 76 |
| Greg Holland R 2025 · 3.21 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.21 | 25.4% | 13.0% | 1.1% | .316 | 3.35 | 26.4% | 14.2% | 104 | +0.14 | 1.97 | 268 | 76 |
| Drew Storen R 2025 · 3.86 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.86 | 19.5% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .289 | 4.49 | 19.4% | 8.4% | 10 | +0.63 | 2.36 | 172 | 76 |
| Carlos Villanueva R 2027 · 3.53 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.53 | 22.0% | 7.6% | 2.4% | .259 | 5.02 | 19.0% | 15.9% | 74 | +1.49 | 3.53 | 135 | 76 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2029 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.40 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.99 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.41 | 3.99 | 104 | 76 |
| Tony Barnette R 2028 · 3.06 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.06 | 19.9% | 6.1% | 1.6% | .281 | 3.28 | 23.4% | 17.0% | 84 | +0.22 | 2.63 | 144 | 75 |
| Chris Martin R 2025 · 3.28 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.28 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 1.5% | .319 | 3.06 | 20.9% | 19.2% | 42 | -0.22 | 1.76 | 416 | 75 |
| Javy Guerra R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.25 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .303 | 3.99 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.26 | 2.95 | 260 | 75 |
| Oliver Drake R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.54 | 24.7% | 9.2% | 2.5% | .356 | 3.18 | 30.1% | 22.1% | 127 | -0.36 | 2.25 | 317 | 75 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2027 · 3.41 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.41 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.66 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.25 | 3.41 | 212 | 75 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2028 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.44 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.25 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.19 | 2.56 | 147 | 75 |
| Adrian Ramirez R 2027 · 3.86 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.86 | 21.7% | 6.3% | 3.3% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.96 | 137 | 74 |
| Louis Coleman R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.00 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .288 | 3.66 | 22.0% | 10.9% | 144 | -0.34 | 3.03 | 256 | 74 |