Drew Carlton
P
San Diego Padres
+0.3
WAR
Age 30
RHP
6'1" / 215 lbs
MLB
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.29
FIP4.25
xFIP4.13
SIERA3.99
K%23.3%
BB%8.9%
K-BB%14.4%
IP32
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
K†5555
FB Velo
p1992.3
Whiff%
p3222.8%
K%
p4321.2%
xwOBA vs
p450.317
FB+3.8
SL-1.3
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 21 | A | West Michigan Whitecaps | 7 | 0 | 11 | 44 | 9 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.82 | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 39 | 0 | 68 | 270 | 68 | 11 | 0 | 19.4% | 5.1% | 0.0% | 2.26 | 2.10 | +2.2 |
| 2019 | 23 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 45 | 0 | 68 | 266 | 65 | 17 | 3 | 19.8% | 7.0% | 1.0% | 1.46 | 2.89 | +1.6 |
| 2021 | 25 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 37 | 2 | 56 | 227 | 50 | 14 | 6 | 20.7% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 3.05 | 3.36 | +1.0 |
| 2022 | 26 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 51 | 2 | 67 | 277 | 74 | 10 | 10 | 24.1% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.43 | 3.77 | +0.9 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 28 | 1 | 41 | 164 | 41 | 11 | 3 | 23.2% | 7.2% | 2.0% | 3.54 | 3.15 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | SD | 32 | — | 32 | 135 | 31 | 12 | 4 | 23.3% | 8.9% | 2.9% | 4.29 | 4.25 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | SD | 31 | — | 31 | 130 | 30 | 12 | 4 | 22.8% | 9.1% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 4.36 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | SD | 30 | — | 30 | 125 | 28 | 12 | 4 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 3.1% | 4.42 | 4.48 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 207 | 5 | 310 | 1248 | 266 | 69 | 23 | 21.3% | 5.5% | 1.8% | 2.81 | 2.99 | +8.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 133 | 3 | 200 | 804 | 171 | 44 | 15 | 21.3% | 5.5% | 1.8% | 2.81 | 2.99 | +5.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Drew Carlton (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.25 | 23.3% | 8.9% | 2.9% | — | 4.42 | 22.5% | 13.3% | 60 | +0.17 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2029 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 83 |
| David Hernandez R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.62 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.5% | .287 | 3.18 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.44 | 2.56 | 268 | 82 |
| Blake Parker R 2027 · 3.18 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.18 | 28.1% | 8.5% | 2.5% | .269 | 3.64 | 28.4% | 21.3% | 195 | +0.46 | 2.41 | 339 | 78 |
| Adam Warren R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.56 | 23.3% | 8.5% | 2.5% | .288 | 4.73 | 20.6% | 9.9% | 86 | +1.17 | 2.72 | 392 | 78 |
| Greg Holland R 2025 · 3.19 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.19 | 25.4% | 13.0% | 1.1% | .316 | 3.45 | 26.4% | 14.2% | 104 | +0.26 | 1.94 | 268 | 78 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 78 |
| Ricky Nolasco R 2028 · 3.21 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.21 | 20.2% | 6.9% | 1.7% | .382 | 4.32 | 17.9% | 11.7% | 379 | +1.11 | 3.21 | 425 | 77 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2027 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 77 |
| Louis Coleman R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.98 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .288 | 3.64 | 22.0% | 10.9% | 144 | -0.34 | 3.10 | 256 | 77 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2028 · 3.33 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.33 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.4% | .342 | 4.98 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.65 | 3.33 | 122 | 77 |
| Joakim Soria R 2027 · 3.48 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.48 | 23.5% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .258 | 2.91 | 26.6% | 18.9% | 183 | -0.57 | 2.00 | 380 | 76 |
| Logan Kensing R 2029 · 3.61 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.61 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.55 | 2.72 | 172 | 76 |
| Jose De La Torre R 2026 · 3.08 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.08 | 22.0% | 8.0% | 1.5% | .248 | 2.59 | 20.5% | 14.7% | 19 | -0.49 | 2.59 | 130 | 75 |
| Drew Storen R 2025 · 3.81 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.81 | 19.5% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .289 | 4.32 | 19.4% | 8.4% | 10 | +0.51 | 2.26 | 172 | 75 |
| Brian Schlitter R 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.31 | 20.6% | 10.8% | 1.1% | .333 | 3.78 | 14.4% | 6.6% | 110 | +0.47 | 3.31 | 244 | 75 |
| Carlos Villanueva R 2027 · 3.67 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.67 | 22.0% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .259 | 4.50 | 19.0% | 15.9% | 74 | +0.83 | 3.67 | 135 | 75 |
| Chris Martin R 2025 · 3.18 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.18 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 1.3% | .319 | 2.97 | 20.9% | 19.2% | 42 | -0.21 | 1.72 | 402 | 75 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2029 · 4.47 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.47 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.9% | .263 | 3.98 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.49 | 3.98 | 104 | 75 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 23.4% | 8.8% | 3.8% | .245 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 160 | 75 |
| Adrian Ramirez R 2027 · 4.20 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.20 | 21.7% | 6.3% | 3.9% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 137 | 75 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.