Daniel Duarte — OGILVIE

Daniel Duarte P Syracuse Mets

Age 29 RHP 6'0" / 235 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION59 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111102vR 94

ERA3.91

FIP4.07

K%22.5%

BB%10.4%

K-BB%12.1%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 65 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4040

CMD4040

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5594.9

Whiff%

p3222.7%

p7025.9%

xwOBA vs

p900.263

FB+1.0 (30%)

CT (20%)

SI (5%)

SL (36%)

CH-0.8 (14%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	18	ROK MLE	AZL Rangers	4	2	6	26	3	2	0	50%	1.6	11.5%	7.7%	3.8%	0.0%	5.68	3.10	—
2015	18	ROK RAW	AZL Rangers	4	2	6	26	3	2	0	50%	1.6	11.5%	7.7%	3.8%	0.0%	5.68	3.10	—
2016	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers 1	12	11	59	250	44	13	2	92%	4.9	12.0%	6.5%	5.5%	1.1%	3.05	3.53	—
2016	19	ROK RAW	DSL Rangers 1	12	11	59	250	44	13	2	92%	4.9	17.6%	5.2%	12.4%	0.8%	3.05	2.71	—
2017	20	AAA MLE	Tigres de Quintana Roo	37	0	37	143	32	8	2	0%	1.0	19.7%	5.9%	13.8%	1.7%	1.96	3.12	—
2017	20	AAA RAW	Tigres de Quintana Roo	37	0	37	143	32	8	2	0%	1.0	22.4%	5.6%	16.8%	1.4%	1.96	2.72	—
2018	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	0	26	102	25	7	1	0%	2.0	17.3%	4.5%	12.8%	0.0%	1.05	2.21	—
2018	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	0	26	102	25	7	1	0%	2.0	24.5%	6.9%	17.6%	1.0%	1.05	2.48	—
2019	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	0	27	126	26	10	2	0%	1.6	16.0%	7.5%	8.5%	0.0%	5.60	2.69	—
2019	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	17	0	27	126	26	10	2	0%	1.6	20.6%	7.9%	12.7%	1.6%	5.60	3.25	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	19	0	24	102	32	12	3	0%	1.2	26.0%	9.8%	16.2%	4.5%	4.56	4.62	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	4 levels	19	0	24	102	32	12	3	0%	1.2	31.4%	11.8%	19.6%	2.9%	4.56	3.56	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	0	10	49	9	9	2	0%	0.8	18.4%	18.4%	0.0%	4.1%	9.58	6.12	-0.2
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	0	10	49	9	9	2	0%	0.8	18.4%	18.4%	0.0%	4.1%	9.58	6.49	-0.2
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	63	0	67	287	62	37	5	0%	1.1	19.3%	12.3%	7.0%	1.6%	3.51	3.91	+0.5
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	63	0	67	287	62	37	5	0%	1.1	19.3%	12.3%	7.0%	1.6%	3.51	3.91	+0.5
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	63	0	67	287	62	37	5	0%	1.1	21.6%	12.9%	8.7%	1.7%	3.51	3.88	+0.5
2024	27	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	2	0	4	15	3	1	1	0%	2.0	20.0%	6.7%	13.3%	6.7%	2.25	5.91	-0.1
2024	27	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	2	0	4	15	3	1	1	0%	2.0	20.0%	6.7%	13.3%	6.7%	2.25	5.91	-0.1
2024	27	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	2	0	4	15	3	1	1	0%	2.0	20.0%	6.7%	13.3%	6.7%	2.25	5.60	-0.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			59	0	67	273	56	31	10	0%	1.1	20.5%	11.4%	9.2%	3.7%	3.22	4.76	-0.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	29	MLB MLE	New York Mets	47	7	59	241	58	23	7	15%	1.3	22.0%	8.9%	13.1%	3.1%	3.51	4.06	+0.3
YTD	29	MLB MLE	New York Mets	47	7	59	241	58	23	7	15%	1.3	22.0%	8.9%	13.1%	3.1%	3.51	4.06	+0.3
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	29	AAA RAW	NYM	24	7	30	133	30	16	4	29%	1.3	22.6%	12.0%	10.5%	3.0%	4.75	4.37	—
2026	29	MLB RAW	NYM	23	0	29	108	28	7	3	0%	1.2	25.9%	6.5%	19.4%	2.8%	2.20	3.26	+0.4
SO FAR	29	MLB RAW	NYM	23	0	29	108	28	7	3	0%	1.2	25.9%	6.5%	19.4%	2.8%	2.20	3.26	+0.4
ROS	29	MLB MLE	NYM	5	0	6	24	5	3	1	0%	1.1	22.5%	10.4%	12.1%	2.8%	3.91	4.07	+0.0
ROS	29	MLB CTX	NYM	6	0	6	25	6	3	1	0%	1.0	22.5%	10.4%	12.1%	2.8%	3.91	4.07	+0.0
2026 TOT	29	MLB MLE	NYM	—	—	65	265	63	26	8	—	—	23.9%	9.6%	14.3%	2.9%	3.54	4.06	+0.4
FULL	29	MLB A+C	NYM	—	—	34	145	63	26	8	—	—	43.7%	17.6%	26.1%	5.3%	6.67	4.54	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	NYM	57	0	59	251	58	25	8	0%	1.0	23.0%	10.2%	12.8%	3.0%	4.34	4.48	+0.0
2028	31	MLB MLE	NYM	53	0	55	234	52	24	8	0%	1.0	22.2%	10.4%	11.8%	3.2%	4.55	4.70	-0.1
2027	30	MLB CTX	NYM	53	0	56	236	54	24	7	0%	1.1	23.0%	10.2%	12.8%	3.0%	4.34	4.48	+0.0
2028	31	MLB CTX	NYM	50	0	53	224	50	23	7	0%	1.1	22.2%	10.4%	11.8%	3.2%	4.55	4.70	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		168	0	182	758	166	81	25	0%	1.1	21.9%	10.7%	11.2%	3.3%	3.98	4.42	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		185	0	200	834	183	89	28	0%	1.1	21.9%	10.7%	11.2%	3.3%	3.98	4.42	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		227	20	319	1341	246	117	25	9%	1.4	18.3%	8.8%	9.6%	1.9%	3.53	3.68	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		142	13	200	842	154	74	16	9%	1.4	18.3%	8.8%	9.6%	1.9%	3.53	3.68	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Daniel Duarte (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.48	22.9%	11.0%	2.8%	—	4.59	22.6%	12.3%	115	+0.11	—	—	—
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	83
Jonathan Broxton R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	31	SU	3.67	24.5%	8.2%	2.9%	.325	3.89	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.22	3.67	137	83
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	82
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	82
Daniel Hudson R 2016 · 3.39 FIP	29	SU	3.39	21.6%	7.1%	2.2%	.319	3.84	23.5%	13.9%	181	+0.45	1.68	468	82
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2015 · 3.34 FIP	31	SU	3.34	26.5%	9.6%	2.3%	.241	3.89	23.3%	13.2%	105	+0.55	3.34	212	82
Pedro Báez R 2017 · 4.08 FIP	29	SU	4.08	22.9%	9.6%	3.1%	.261	3.18	24.7%	16.1%	143	-0.90	2.29	332	82
Daniel Robert R 2023 · 3.51 FIP	28	SU	3.51	21.9%	10.7%	1.7%	.310	3.09	24.6%	16.4%	87	-0.42	2.32	186	80
Ross Ohlendorf R 2015 · 3.30 FIP	32	SU	3.30	23.7%	7.2%	2.3%	.342	4.93	23.4%	12.7%	66	+1.63	3.30	122	80
Al Alburquerque R 2015 · 3.54 FIP	29	SU	3.54	21.4%	11.1%	1.5%	.330	3.23	21.3%	12.5%	114	-0.31	2.84	228	80
Cory Gearrin R 2015 · 3.52 FIP	29	SU	3.52	22.1%	7.5%	2.5%	.283	3.54	22.2%	13.6%	174	+0.02	3.15	272	80
Pedro Beato R 2016 · 4.20 FIP	29	SU	4.20	19.2%	8.5%	3.0%	.275	3.72	18.5%	11.1%	152	-0.48	3.47	295	79
Kevin Jepsen R 2015 · 3.47 FIP	31	SU	3.47	20.7%	9.1%	1.8%	.241	5.85	16.9%	7.2%	90	+2.38	3.47	160	79
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	79
Dalier Hinojosa R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	29	SU	3.41	20.4%	9.8%	1.4%	.283	4.30	18.7%	6.1%	24	+0.89	3.41	104	79
Shintaro Fujinami R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	23.2%	12.3%	2.5%	.290	4.55	21.2%	-0.6%	51	+0.46	4.09	130	79
Luis García R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	20.6%	10.9%	1.8%	.281	3.74	21.6%	12.6%	179	-0.01	2.33	617	79
Carlos Fisher R 2015 · 3.45 FIP	32	SU	3.45	22.6%	11.6%	1.4%	.236	3.17	22.5%	11.1%	91	-0.28	2.48	147	79
Danny Farquhar R 2016 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	21.7%	7.6%	3.3%	.272	3.62	22.3%	11.3%	62	-0.40	3.62	224	78
Gerardo Sanchez R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	21.6%	8.4%	2.1%	.355	3.58	20.5%	15.1%	56	+0.11	2.65	137	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	59	22.7%	10.5%	1.17	4.40
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68