Daniel Duarte
P
Syracuse Mets
+0.3
WAR
Age 29
RHP
6'0" / 235 lbs
AAA
peak 0.5 · 2026
ERA4.14
FIP4.44
xFIP3.93
SIERA3.72
K%22.5%
BB%10.2%
K-BB%12.4%
IP65
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2026
STUF5050
CTRL2525
CMD2525
K†5555
FB Velo
p6595.6
Whiff%
p4424.5%
K%
p1416.9%
xwOBA vs
p720.291
FB+1.0 (30%)
CT (20%)
SI (5%)
SL (36%)
CH-0.8 (14%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 18 | ROK | AZL Rangers | 4 | 2 | 6 | 26 | 3 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 5.68 | — | — |
| 2016 | 19 | ROK | DSL Rangers 1 | 12 | 11 | 59 | 250 | 44 | 13 | 2 | 12.0% | 6.5% | 1.1% | 3.05 | 3.53 | +1.0 |
| 2017 | 20 | AAA | Tigres de Quintana Roo | 37 | 0 | 37 | 143 | 32 | 8 | 2 | 19.7% | 5.9% | 1.7% | 1.96 | 3.10 | +0.8 |
| 2018 | 21 | A | Lexington Legends | 13 | 0 | 26 | 102 | 25 | 7 | 1 | 17.3% | 4.5% | 0.0% | 1.05 | 2.21 | +0.8 |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 17 | 0 | 27 | 126 | 26 | 10 | 2 | 16.0% | 7.5% | 0.0% | 5.60 | 2.69 | +0.7 |
| 2021 | 24 | AAA | Louisville Bats | 19 | 0 | 24 | 102 | 32 | 12 | 3 | 26.0% | 9.8% | 4.5% | 4.56 | 4.61 | +0.1 |
| 2022 | 25 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 13 | 0 | 10 | 49 | 9 | 9 | 2 | — | — | — | 9.58 | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 63 | 0 | 67 | 287 | 62 | 37 | 5 | 20.0% | 13.2% | 1.5% | 3.51 | 3.92 | +0.8 |
| 2024 | 27 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 2 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | 2.25 | — | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | 4 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 5 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 3.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | NYM | 12 | 12 | 65 | 276 | 66 | 36 | 8 | 23.8% | 13.1% | 2.8% | 4.39 | 4.64 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 29 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 71 | 301 | 71 | 39 | 8 | 23.4% | 13.0% | 2.5% | 4.27 | 4.25 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | NYM | 12 | 12 | 63 | 267 | 62 | 34 | 8 | 23.2% | 12.8% | 2.8% | 4.57 | 4.70 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | NYM | 11 | 11 | 61 | 258 | 58 | 33 | 8 | 22.6% | 12.7% | 2.9% | 4.68 | 4.78 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | NYM | 59 | — | 59 | 248 | 55 | 31 | 7 | 22.0% | 12.6% | 3.0% | 4.78 | 4.87 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | NYM | 56 | — | 56 | 237 | 51 | 30 | 7 | 21.4% | 12.7% | 3.1% | 4.90 | 4.98 | -0.0 |
| 2031 | 34 | MLB | NYM | 53 | — | 53 | 225 | 47 | 29 | 7 | 20.7% | 12.9% | 3.2% | 5.03 | 5.12 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 35 | MLB | NYM | 50 | — | 50 | 212 | 42 | 28 | 7 | 19.9% | 13.2% | 3.3% | 5.18 | 5.28 | -0.2 |
| 2033 | 36 | MLB | NYM | 47 | — | 47 | 198 | 38 | 27 | 7 | 19.2% | 13.4% | 3.4% | 5.34 | 5.44 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 184 | 14 | 266 | 1125 | 200 | 102 | 17 | 17.8% | 9.0% | 1.5% | 3.52 | 3.58 | +5.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 139 | 11 | 200 | 847 | 151 | 77 | 13 | 17.8% | 9.0% | 1.5% | 3.52 | 3.58 | +3.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Daniel Duarte (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.64 | 23.8% | 13.1% | 2.8% | — | 4.78 | 22.6% | 9.9% | 183 | +0.14 | — | — | — |
| Al Alburquerque R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.56 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.23 | 21.3% | 12.5% | 114 | -0.33 | 2.83 | 228 | 83 |
| Wily Peralta R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.25 | 22.7% | 13.7% | 2.4% | .310 | 4.90 | 15.3% | 5.5% | 154 | +0.65 | 3.99 | 748 | 83 |
| Shintaro Fujinami R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.01 | 23.2% | 12.3% | 2.4% | .290 | 4.91 | 22.5% | -2.9% | 51 | +0.90 | 4.01 | 130 | 82 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.03 | 24.4% | 10.9% | 2.9% | .311 | 2.38 | 20.9% | 12.6% | 25 | -1.65 | 2.38 | 160 | 82 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2027 · 3.72 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.72 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.6% | .287 | 3.88 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.16 | 3.38 | 129 | 82 |
| Luis García R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.77 | 20.6% | 10.9% | 1.9% | .281 | 3.74 | 21.6% | 12.6% | 179 | -0.03 | 2.26 | 602 | 81 |
| Pedro Báez R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.23 | 22.9% | 9.6% | 3.4% | .261 | 3.16 | 24.7% | 16.1% | 143 | -1.07 | 2.29 | 332 | 81 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2029 · 3.45 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.45 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.18 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.27 | 2.48 | 147 | 80 |
| Gregory Infante R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.46 | 19.0% | 12.3% | 2.6% | .333 | 3.47 | 22.5% | 15.8% | 120 | -0.99 | 2.97 | 230 | 80 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2025 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.38 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.82 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.44 | 4.38 | 101 | 78 |
| Javy Guerra R 2027 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.3% | .303 | 3.87 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.43 | 3.01 | 260 | 78 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2025 · 4.82 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.82 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .275 | 6.70 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +1.88 | 3.88 | 180 | 78 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2028 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.68 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.22 | 3.46 | 160 | 78 |
| Pedro Beato R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.25 | 19.2% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .275 | 3.71 | 18.5% | 11.1% | 152 | -0.54 | 3.46 | 295 | 77 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2028 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 77 |
| Roman Mendez R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.49 | 20.8% | 11.1% | 3.2% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.12 | 230 | 76 |
| Brandon Maurer R 2025 · 4.89 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.89 | 19.7% | 13.0% | 3.3% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.98 | 234 | 76 |
| Leonel Campos R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.56 | 24.9% | 13.8% | 1.5% | .328 | 3.71 | 25.7% | 13.9% | 46 | +0.15 | 2.63 | 168 | 76 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2027 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 75 |
| Cody Allen R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.10 | 27.7% | 10.7% | 3.6% | .281 | 7.47 | 25.0% | 7.8% | 23 | +3.37 | 1.58 | 295 | 75 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.