Daniel Duarte
P
Syracuse Mets
Age 29
RHP
6'0" / 235 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ILReassigned to Minors (RM)
2026 ROS PROJECTION34 act + 38 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118109vR 100
ERA4.22
FIP4.37
K%22.7%
BB%13.0%
K-BB%9.7%
ROS IP38
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 72 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p6595.6
Whiff%
p4424.5%
K%
p1416.9%
xwOBA vs
p720.291
FB+1.0 (30%)
CT (20%)
SI (5%)
SL (36%)
CH-0.8 (14%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 18 | ROK | AZL Rangers | 4 | 2 | 6 | 26 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 50% | 1.6 | 11.5% | 7.7% | 3.8% | 0.0% | 5.68 | 3.10 | — |
| 2015 | 18 | ROK | AZL Rangers | 4 | 2 | 6 | 26 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 50% | 1.6 | 11.5% | 7.7% | 3.8% | 0.0% | 5.68 | 3.10 | — |
| 2016 | 19 | ROK | DSL Rangers 1 | 12 | 11 | 59 | 250 | 44 | 13 | 2 | 92% | 4.9 | 12.0% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 1.1% | 3.05 | 3.53 | — |
| 2016 | 19 | ROK | DSL Rangers 1 | 12 | 11 | 59 | 250 | 44 | 13 | 2 | 92% | 4.9 | 17.6% | 5.2% | 12.4% | 0.8% | 3.05 | 2.71 | — |
| 2017 | 20 | AAA | Tigres de Quintana Roo | 37 | 0 | 37 | 143 | 32 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.7% | 5.9% | 13.8% | 1.9% | 1.96 | 3.24 | — |
| 2017 | 20 | AAA | Tigres de Quintana Roo | 37 | 0 | 37 | 143 | 32 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.4% | 5.6% | 16.8% | 1.4% | 1.96 | 2.72 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 0 | 26 | 102 | 25 | 7 | 1 | 0% | 2.0 | 17.3% | 4.5% | 12.8% | 0.0% | 1.05 | 2.21 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 0 | 26 | 102 | 25 | 7 | 1 | 0% | 2.0 | 24.5% | 6.9% | 17.6% | 1.0% | 1.05 | 2.48 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 17 | 0 | 27 | 126 | 26 | 10 | 2 | 0% | 1.6 | 16.0% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 0.0% | 5.60 | 2.69 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 17 | 0 | 27 | 126 | 26 | 10 | 2 | 0% | 1.6 | 20.6% | 7.9% | 12.7% | 1.6% | 5.60 | 3.25 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 4 levels | 19 | 0 | 24 | 102 | 32 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 26.0% | 9.8% | 16.2% | 4.8% | 4.56 | 4.76 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 4 levels | 19 | 0 | 24 | 102 | 32 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 31.4% | 11.8% | 19.6% | 2.9% | 4.56 | 3.56 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 0 | 10 | 49 | 9 | 9 | 2 | 0% | 0.8 | 18.4% | 18.4% | 0.0% | 4.1% | 9.58 | 6.12 | -0.2 |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 0 | 10 | 49 | 9 | 9 | 2 | 0% | 0.8 | 18.4% | 18.4% | 0.0% | 4.1% | 9.58 | 6.49 | -0.2 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 63 | 0 | 67 | 287 | 62 | 37 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.0% | 13.2% | 6.8% | 1.7% | 3.51 | 3.99 | +0.5 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 63 | 0 | 67 | 287 | 62 | 37 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.6% | 12.9% | 8.7% | 1.7% | 3.51 | 3.88 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 27 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 2 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0% | 2.0 | 20.0% | 6.7% | 13.3% | 6.7% | 2.25 | 5.91 | -0.1 |
| 2024 | 27 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 2 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0% | 2.0 | 20.0% | 6.7% | 13.3% | 6.7% | 2.25 | 5.60 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | New York Mets | 26 | 7 | 34 | 145 | 30 | 17 | 4 | 27% | 1.3 | 18.3% | 12.9% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 4.19 | 5.05 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | NYM | 36 | 0 | 38 | 158 | 36 | 21 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.7% | 13.0% | 9.7% | 2.8% | 4.22 | 4.37 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | NYM | 36 | 0 | 38 | 160 | 36 | 21 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.7% | 13.0% | 9.7% | 2.8% | 4.22 | 4.37 | +0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 29 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 72 | 303 | 66 | 38 | 8 | — | — | 21.8% | 12.4% | 9.4% | 2.8% | 4.21 | 4.69 | +0.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 29 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 42 | 179 | 66 | 38 | 8 | — | — | 36.8% | 21.0% | 15.8% | 4.7% | 7.11 | 5.23 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | NYM | 57 | 0 | 59 | 251 | 57 | 33 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.5% | 13.0% | 9.6% | 3.0% | 4.72 | 4.86 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | NYM | 53 | 0 | 55 | 234 | 51 | 30 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.9% | 13.0% | 8.8% | 3.2% | 4.91 | 5.06 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | NYM | 49 | 0 | 51 | 216 | 46 | 29 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.1% | 13.2% | 7.9% | 3.5% | 5.11 | 5.27 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | NYM | 53 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 53 | 31 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 13.0% | 9.6% | 3.0% | 4.72 | 4.86 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | NYM | 50 | 0 | 53 | 224 | 49 | 29 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.9% | 13.0% | 8.8% | 3.2% | 4.91 | 5.06 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | NYM | 47 | 0 | 49 | 207 | 44 | 27 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.1% | 13.2% | 7.9% | 3.5% | 5.11 | 5.27 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 225 | 0 | 239 | 1004 | 213 | 133 | 33 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.2% | 13.2% | 8.0% | 3.3% | 4.55 | 4.78 | +1.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 189 | 0 | 200 | 842 | 179 | 112 | 28 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.2% | 13.2% | 8.0% | 3.3% | 4.55 | 4.78 | +1.4 | ||
| Career | — | 206 | 20 | 294 | 1245 | 221 | 117 | 23 | 10% | 1.4 | 17.8% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 1.9% | 3.61 | 3.81 | +5.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 140 | 14 | 200 | 847 | 151 | 80 | 16 | 10% | 1.4 | 17.8% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 1.9% | 3.61 | 3.81 | +3.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Daniel Duarte (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.70 | 23.2% | 13.0% | 2.8% | — | 5.05 | 21.9% | 8.8% | 166 | +0.35 | — | — | — |
| Dustin Molleken R 2027 · 3.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.61 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .287 | 4.00 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.39 | 3.35 | 129 | 81 |
| Wily Peralta R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.18 | 22.7% | 13.7% | 2.3% | .310 | 4.93 | 15.3% | 5.5% | 154 | +0.75 | 4.02 | 748 | 80 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2027 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 79 |
| Al Alburquerque R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.58 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.18 | 21.3% | 12.5% | 114 | -0.40 | 2.76 | 228 | 79 |
| Shintaro Fujinami R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.99 | 23.2% | 12.3% | 2.4% | .290 | 4.88 | 22.5% | -2.9% | 51 | +0.89 | 3.99 | 130 | 79 |
| Gregory Infante R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.39 | 19.0% | 12.3% | 2.4% | .333 | 3.24 | 22.5% | 15.8% | 120 | -1.15 | 2.96 | 230 | 79 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.19 | 24.4% | 10.9% | 3.2% | .311 | 2.38 | 20.9% | 12.6% | 25 | -1.81 | 2.38 | 160 | 79 |
| Luis García R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.80 | 20.6% | 10.9% | 1.9% | .281 | 3.81 | 21.6% | 12.6% | 179 | +0.01 | 2.40 | 617 | 78 |
| Javy Guerra R 2027 · 4.25 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.25 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .303 | 3.99 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.26 | 2.95 | 260 | 78 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2025 · 4.39 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.39 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.65 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.26 | 4.39 | 101 | 78 |
| Pedro Báez R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.26 | 22.9% | 9.6% | 3.4% | .261 | 3.30 | 24.7% | 16.1% | 143 | -0.96 | 2.39 | 332 | 77 |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.76 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .347 | 2.99 | 17.8% | 11.9% | 54 | -0.77 | 2.22 | 187 | 77 |
| Joe Colón J R 2024 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.04 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 113 | 76 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2025 · 4.96 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.96 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.8% | .275 | 7.33 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +2.37 | 3.78 | 180 | 76 |
| Dalier Hinojosa R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.56 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 1.7% | .283 | 4.38 | 18.7% | 6.1% | 24 | +0.82 | 3.56 | 104 | 76 |
| Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2025 · 4.83 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.83 | 22.7% | 14.1% | 3.4% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.87 | 232 | 75 |
| Brandon Maurer R 2025 · 4.83 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.83 | 19.7% | 13.0% | 3.2% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.21 | 234 | 75 |
| Ryan Cook R 2025 · 4.69 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.69 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.1% | .297 | 4.04 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.65 | 4.04 | 102 | 74 |
| Roman Mendez R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.58 | 20.8% | 11.1% | 3.3% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.12 | 230 | 74 |
| Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.38 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.38 | 21.1% | 13.8% | 4.2% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.72 | 153 | 74 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 52 | 22.1% | 13.1% | 1.21 | 4.83 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |