Bryan Garcia prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Bryan Garcia P Sugar Land Space Cowboys

Age 31 RHP 6'1" / 205 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 55 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.04

FIP5.11

K%20.8%

BB%12.2%

K-BB%8.6%

ROS IP55

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 55 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL3535

CMD3030

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2792.9

Whiff%

p4524.6%

p3620.2%

xwOBA vs

p200.348

CH+2.6

SL-1.1

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	21	A MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	1	0	1	5	1	0	0	0%	0.7	20.0%	0.0%	20.0%	0.0%	40.50	1.41	—
2016	21	A RAW	West Michigan Whitecaps	1	0	1	5	1	0	0	0%	0.7	20.0%	0.0%	20.0%	0.0%	40.50	0.10	—
2017	22	MIX MLE	4 levels	52	0	55	216	78	18	2	0%	1.1	27.2%	9.4%	17.8%	1.1%	2.13	2.59	—
2017	22	MIX RAW	4 levels	52	0	55	216	78	18	2	0%	1.1	36.1%	8.3%	27.8%	0.9%	2.13	1.72	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	45	0	48	201	54	20	7	0%	1.1	21.0%	10.7%	10.4%	3.6%	4.31	4.64	-0.1
2019	24	MIX RAW	4 levels	45	0	48	201	54	20	7	0%	1.1	26.9%	10.0%	16.9%	3.5%	4.31	4.00	+0.3
2020	25	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	26	0	22	93	12	10	0	0%	0.8	12.9%	10.8%	2.2%	0.0%	1.66	3.37	+0.3
2020	25	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	26	0	22	93	12	10	0	0%	0.8	12.9%	10.8%	2.2%	0.0%	1.66	3.38	+0.3
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	58	0	63	296	51	32	13	0%	1.1	16.5%	10.9%	5.5%	4.6%	6.75	5.62	-0.8
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	58	0	63	296	51	32	13	0%	1.1	17.2%	10.8%	6.4%	4.4%	6.75	5.70	-0.8
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	15	106	439	86	44	14	35%	2.5	17.7%	10.4%	7.3%	3.4%	3.75	4.79	-0.3
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	15	106	439	86	44	14	35%	2.5	19.6%	10.0%	9.6%	3.2%	3.75	4.44	+0.1
2023	28	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	15	9	49	256	39	45	7	60%	3.3	13.1%	15.8%	-2.7%	3.4%	6.98	5.84	—
2023	28	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	15	9	49	256	39	45	7	60%	3.3	13.1%	15.8%	-2.7%	3.4%	6.98	5.84	—
2023	28	AAA RAW	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	15	9	49	256	39	45	7	60%	3.3	15.2%	17.6%	-2.3%	2.7%	6.98	6.12	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			76	4	88	402	68	48	14	5%	1.2	16.9%	11.9%	5.0%	3.5%	5.52	5.26	-0.7
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	31	MLB	HOU	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.8%	12.2%	8.6%	3.4%	5.04	5.11	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	HOU	49	0	51	216	44	27	8	0%	1.0	20.2%	12.3%	8.0%	3.6%	5.15	5.29	-0.4
2028	33	MLB MLE	HOU	45	0	47	198	39	25	8	0%	1.0	19.6%	12.5%	7.1%	3.8%	5.32	5.49	-0.5
2029	34	MLB MLE	HOU	41	0	43	181	34	23	7	0%	1.0	18.9%	12.8%	6.1%	4.1%	5.55	5.74	-0.6
2027	32	MLB CTX	HOU	18	0	19	80	16	10	3	0%	1.1	20.2%	12.3%	8.0%	3.6%	5.15	5.29	-0.2
2028	33	MLB CTX	HOU	25	0	26	110	22	14	4	0%	1.0	19.6%	12.5%	7.1%	3.8%	5.32	5.49	-0.3
2029	34	MLB CTX	HOU	21	0	22	93	18	12	4	0%	1.0	18.9%	12.8%	6.1%	4.1%	5.55	5.74	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		139	4	154	682	123	83	25	3%	1.1	18.0%	12.2%	5.8%	3.6%	5.45	5.11	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		180	5	200	884	159	108	32	3%	1.1	18.0%	12.2%	5.8%	3.6%	5.45	5.11	-1.3
Career	—	MLE		240	24	343	1506	274	170	47	10%	1.4	18.2%	11.3%	6.9%	3.1%	4.52	4.70	-2.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		140	14	200	879	160	99	27	10%	1.4	18.2%	11.3%	6.9%	3.1%	4.52	4.70	-2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bryan Garcia (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.11	20.8%	12.2%	3.4%	—	5.49	19.6%	7.1%	141	+0.38	—	—	—
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	89
Dustin Molleken R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	31	SU	4.04	19.6%	12.1%	1.9%	.276	3.38	24.3%	11.9%	16	-0.66	3.38	129	87
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	82
Neil Wagner R 2016 · 4.05 FIP	32	SU	4.05	19.8%	12.3%	1.9%	.360	3.11	20.7%	12.1%	54	-0.94	3.11	135	82
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	81
Brian Sanches R 2010 · 4.24 FIP	31	SU	4.24	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.217	4.35	19.6%	8.5%	62	+0.11	3.39	229	77
Manny Acosta R 2012 · 4.49 FIP	31	SU	4.49	21.3%	11.1%	3.2%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	350	77
Jeff Fulchino R 2011 · 4.44 FIP	31	SU	4.44	20.4%	11.1%	3.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	178	77
Miguel Mejia R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	31	SU	4.41	15.7%	10.7%	2.3%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	108	76
Grant Black R 2023 · 5.49 FIP	29	SU	5.49	15.9%	11.3%	4.2%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	215	76
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	75
Luis Angel Daniel R 2016 · 4.56 FIP	31	SU	4.56	13.4%	8.9%	2.7%	.286	4.16	9.8%	0.3%	53	-0.40	4.16	156	75
Scott Atchison R 2007 · 4.55 FIP	31	SU	4.55	19.1%	7.6%	3.8%	.297	4.59	16.2%	9.5%	60	+0.04	2.52	340	75
Chris Hatcher R 2016 · 4.61 FIP	31	SU	4.61	23.8%	9.4%	4.2%	.283	4.69	22.0%	13.8%	96	+0.08	2.51	246	74
Felipe Arredondo R 2017 · 4.76 FIP	30	SW	4.76	14.8%	7.3%	3.6%	.311	4.65	16.2%	9.1%	64	-0.11	3.92	337	74
Austin Adams R 2019 · 5.80 FIP	32	SU	5.80	20.8%	10.6%	5.7%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	162	74
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	74
Mike Buddie R 2002 · 4.26 FIP	31	SU	4.26	15.1%	7.6%	2.7%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	123	73
Kerry Ligtenberg R 2002 · 4.09 FIP	31	SU	4.09	18.1%	10.7%	2.1%	.237	3.86	18.8%	13.2%	114	-0.23	2.94	381	73
Fredy Quintero R 2019 · 4.62 FIP	31	SU	4.62	17.2%	13.7%	2.2%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	241	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	41	19.0%	12.4%	1.40	5.33
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Scott Proctor ('11)	1.7	57	19.0%	10.9%	1.52	4.78
Will Cunnane ('04)	1.4	46	18.9%	10.4%	1.25	5.26
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43