J.C. Mejía prospect projection, MLE, ETA

J.C. Mejía P Nashville Sounds

Age 29 RHP 6'6" / 250 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 56 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.60

FIP4.54

K%21.7%

BB%9.6%

K-BB%12.2%

ROS IP57

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 56 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD4545

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6095.2

Whiff%

p6527.6%

p7126.0%

xwOBA vs

p100.391

SL+0.8

FB-1.7

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	18	ROK MLE	DSL Indians	19	0	39	159	25	12	1	0%	2.1	10.7%	9.4%	1.3%	0.9%	1.37	3.88	—
2015	18	ROK RAW	DSL Indians	19	0	39	159	25	12	1	0%	2.1	15.7%	7.5%	8.2%	0.6%	1.37	3.07	—
2016	19	ROK MLE	DSL Indians	17	1	34	147	22	5	0	6%	2.0	10.2%	4.3%	5.9%	0.0%	3.48	2.78	—
2016	19	ROK RAW	DSL Indians	17	1	34	147	22	5	0	6%	2.0	15.0%	3.4%	11.6%	0.0%	3.48	2.24	—
2017	20	ROK MLE	AZL Indians	10	0	14	62	19	5	0	0%	1.4	20.8%	10.1%	10.8%	0.0%	3.14	2.62	—
2017	20	ROK RAW	AZL Indians	10	0	14	62	19	5	0	0%	1.4	30.6%	8.1%	22.6%	0.0%	3.14	1.50	—
2018	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	16	98	396	100	21	3	89%	5.4	19.3%	6.3%	13.0%	1.0%	3.31	2.81	—
2018	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	16	98	396	100	21	3	89%	5.4	25.3%	5.3%	19.9%	0.8%	3.31	2.10	—
2019	22	A+ MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	8	8	33	134	36	9	0	100%	4.1	20.7%	7.7%	13.0%	0.0%	4.09	2.33	—
2019	22	A+ RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	8	8	33	134	36	9	0	100%	4.1	26.9%	6.7%	20.1%	0.0%	4.09	1.74	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	17	78	355	74	40	21	63%	2.9	19.9%	11.5%	8.4%	6.1%	7.76	6.20	-1.1
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	17	78	355	74	40	21	63%	2.9	20.8%	11.3%	9.6%	5.9%	7.76	6.25	-1.2
2022	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	0	33	138	37	18	3	0%	1.2	24.8%	11.7%	13.2%	3.0%	4.05	4.12	+0.2
2022	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	0	33	138	37	18	3	0%	1.2	26.8%	13.0%	13.8%	2.2%	4.05	3.67	+0.3
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	42	177	45	16	4	0%	1.3	22.9%	8.3%	14.6%	2.4%	4.32	3.56	+0.5
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	42	177	45	16	4	0%	1.3	22.9%	8.3%	14.6%	2.4%	4.32	3.56	+0.5
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	0	42	177	45	16	4	0%	1.3	25.4%	9.0%	16.4%	2.3%	4.32	3.34	+0.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			28	11	66	304	61	32	15	39%	2.4	20.1%	10.5%	9.5%	4.9%	8.32	5.66	-0.8
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	29	MLB	MIL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.7%	9.6%	12.2%	3.1%	4.60	4.54	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	MIL	51	0	53	225	48	22	7	0%	1.0	21.2%	9.8%	11.4%	3.3%	4.67	4.73	-0.1
2028	31	MLB MLE	MIL	47	0	50	210	43	21	7	0%	1.1	20.6%	10.1%	10.5%	3.5%	4.81	4.93	-0.2
2027	30	MLB CTX	MIL	19	0	20	84	18	8	3	0%	1.1	21.2%	9.8%	11.4%	3.3%	4.67	4.73	-0.0
2028	31	MLB CTX	MIL	26	0	27	114	24	12	4	0%	1.0	20.6%	10.1%	10.5%	3.5%	4.81	4.93	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		73	11	113	502	102	52	22	15%	1.5	20.4%	10.3%	10.1%	4.3%	6.83	5.06	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		129	19	200	889	181	92	39	15%	1.6	20.4%	10.3%	10.1%	4.3%	6.83	5.06	-1.2
Career	—	MLE		159	42	371	1568	295	135	35	26%	2.3	18.8%	8.6%	10.2%	2.2%	4.29	3.83	-1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		86	23	200	845	159	73	19	26%	2.3	18.8%	8.6%	10.2%	2.2%	4.29	3.83	-1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
J.C. Mejía (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.54	21.7%	9.6%	3.1%	—	4.83	20.9%	10.9%	103	+0.29	—	—	—
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	75
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	72
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	71
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	71
Dalier Hinojosa R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	29	SU	3.41	20.4%	9.8%	1.4%	.283	4.30	18.7%	6.1%	24	+0.89	3.41	104	70
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	70
Jose Pina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	29	SW	4.90	16.9%	9.2%	3.8%	.231	3.66	13.6%	6.9%	246	-1.24	3.63	424	70
Michael Mariot R 2018 · 4.62 FIP	29	SU	4.62	21.8%	7.5%	4.4%	.328	4.65	17.7%	9.5%	136	+0.03	2.40	701	70
Justin Miller R 2016 · 3.74 FIP	29	SU	3.74	20.8%	9.7%	2.1%	.353	4.72	22.5%	16.5%	127	+0.98	2.63	292	70
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	70
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	70
Blake Smith R 2016 · 3.59 FIP	28	SU	3.59	22.4%	8.6%	2.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.17	124	69
Gregory Infante R 2016 · 4.47 FIP	29	SU	4.47	19.0%	12.3%	2.6%	.333	3.43	22.5%	15.8%	120	-1.04	2.97	230	69
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	68
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	68
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	68
Felipe Arredondo R 2016 · 3.92 FIP	29	SW	3.92	17.2%	6.6%	2.6%	.281	4.71	15.4%	8.2%	139	+0.79	3.92	337	68
Nolan Clenney R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	27	SU	4.76	23.0%	10.1%	4.2%	.341	4.58	17.2%	7.5%	71	-0.18	3.73	223	68
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	68
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	68

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	56	20.9%	10.1%	1.46	5.75
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98
Will Cunnane ('04)	1.4	46	18.9%	10.4%	1.25	5.26
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.3	53	23.0%	8.3%	1.61	5.21
Scott Proctor ('11)	1.7	57	19.0%	10.9%	1.52	4.78
Josh Lindblom ('21)	1.0	52	22.1%	9.6%	1.25	4.78
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71