Sandy Alcantara

P Miami Marlins

Age 31 RHP 6'5" / 200 lbs MLB Svc 7.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 2.4 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	27	MIX2 levels	29	29	189	4.05	3.74	20.0%	6.2%	2.7	K 19.8% · BB 6.3% · FIP 3.89
2025	29	MLBMIA	31	31	175	5.36	4.09	19.1%	7.7%	1.7
2026	30	MLBMIA	36	33	214	3.87	3.96	17.1%	6.6%	2.4
2027PROJ	31	MLBMIA	31	31	191	4.46	4.35	19.2%	6.9%	1.2
2028PROJ	32	MLBMIA	29	29	177	4.46	4.51	18.4%	7.3%	0.6
2029PROJ	33	MLBMIA	26	26	162	4.66	4.79	17.5%	7.8%	0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 6.8 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractCONFIRMED

Control thru2027Service7.581First FA2028Options1

2027Ext / FA-deal$18M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo90

xwOBA vs61

Whiff%20

K%15

CompsRolando Arrojo (age 32) · Cory Lidle (age 31) · Hideo Nomo (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110101vR 93

ERA4.46

FIP4.35

K%19.2%

BB%6.9%

K-BB%12.2%

Proj IP191

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 191 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—60

STUF6065

CTRL5055

CMD5060

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9097.5

Whiff%

p2021.1%

p1517.1%

xwOBA vs

p610.301

FB+4.8 (44%)

CT+1.1 (15%)

CH (21%)

SI (26%)

CU (4%)

SL (16%)

Contract CONFIRMED · hand-curated extension

Status FA

MLB Debut 2017

Service 7.581 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$18M	+1.2	$10M	-$8M
Totals		$18M		$10M	-$8M

Options · projected decision
2027	CLUB OPT	$21.0M / $2.0M buyout	DECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	19	ROK MLE	GCL Cardinals	12	12	64	267	51	20	3	100%	5.4	13.0%	9.4%	3.6%	1.6%	3.22	4.05	—
2015	19	ROK RAW	GCL Cardinals	12	12	64	267	51	20	3	100%	5.4	19.1%	7.5%	11.6%	1.1%	3.22	3.05	—
2016	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	123	533	153	59	4	100%	5.3	21.4%	13.0%	8.5%	0.9%	3.96	3.44	—
2016	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	123	533	153	59	4	100%	5.3	28.7%	11.1%	17.6%	0.8%	3.96	2.47	—
2017	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	22	134	594	116	60	15	67%	4.1	15.5%	10.7%	4.8%	2.1%	4.31	4.32	+0.9
2017	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	22	134	594	116	60	15	67%	4.1	19.5%	10.1%	9.4%	2.5%	4.31	4.17	+1.2
2018	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	28	161	678	126	65	13	100%	5.8	17.1%	9.8%	7.2%	2.3%	3.80	4.19	+1.4
2018	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	28	161	678	126	65	13	100%	5.8	18.6%	9.6%	9.0%	1.9%	3.80	3.80	+2.1
2019	23	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	32	32	197	838	151	76	23	100%	6.2	18.0%	9.1%	8.9%	2.9%	3.88	4.31	+1.4
2019	23	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	32	32	197	838	151	76	23	100%	6.2	18.0%	9.1%	8.9%	2.7%	3.88	4.24	+1.5
2020	24	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	7	7	42	172	39	15	4	100%	6.0	22.7%	8.7%	14.0%	2.4%	3.00	3.63	+0.6
2020	24	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	7	7	42	172	39	15	4	100%	6.0	22.7%	8.7%	14.0%	2.3%	3.00	3.55	+0.7
2021	25	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	33	33	206	837	201	48	21	100%	6.2	24.0%	5.7%	18.3%	2.6%	3.19	3.25	+4.2
2021	25	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	33	33	206	837	201	48	21	100%	6.2	24.0%	5.7%	18.3%	2.5%	3.19	3.17	+4.4
2022	26	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	32	32	229	886	207	49	16	100%	7.1	23.4%	5.5%	17.8%	1.9%	2.28	2.87	+6.0
2022	26	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	32	32	229	886	207	49	16	100%	7.1	23.4%	5.5%	17.8%	1.8%	2.28	2.84	+6.1
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	189	775	155	48	22	100%	6.5	19.8%	6.3%	13.5%	3.0%	4.05	3.89	+2.3
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	29	189	775	155	48	22	100%	6.5	20.0%	6.2%	13.8%	2.8%	4.05	3.74	+2.7
2025	29	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	31	31	175	745	142	57	22	100%	5.6	19.1%	7.7%	11.4%	3.1%	5.36	4.17	+1.5
2025	29	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	31	31	175	745	142	57	22	100%	5.6	19.1%	7.7%	11.4%	3.1%	5.36	4.17	+1.5
2025	29	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	31	31	175	745	142	57	22	100%	5.6	19.1%	7.7%	11.4%	3.0%	5.36	4.09	+1.7
2026	30	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	36	33	214	894	153	59	24	92%	5.9	17.1%	6.6%	10.5%	2.8%	3.87	4.04	+2.2
2026	30	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	36	33	214	894	153	59	24	92%	5.9	17.1%	6.6%	10.5%	2.8%	3.87	4.04	+2.2
2026	30	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	36	33	214	894	153	59	24	92%	5.9	17.1%	6.6%	10.5%	2.7%	3.87	3.96	+2.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			213	202	1289	5319	1084	381	137	95%	6.1	20.4%	7.2%	13.2%	2.6%	3.69	3.69	+19.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	MIA	31	31	191	806	155	56	24	100%	6.2	19.2%	6.9%	12.2%	2.9%	4.46	4.35	+1.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	MIA	29	29	177	746	137	55	24	100%	6.1	18.4%	7.3%	11.0%	3.2%	4.55	4.60	+0.6
2029	33	MLB MLE	MIA	26	26	162	685	120	53	24	100%	6.2	17.5%	7.8%	9.7%	3.5%	4.75	4.88	+0.0
2030	34	MLB MLE	MIA	24	24	148	623	104	52	23	100%	6.1	16.6%	8.3%	8.3%	3.8%	5.01	5.19	-0.5
2028	32	MLB CTX	MIA	29	29	177	747	137	55	23	100%	6.1	18.4%	7.3%	11.0%	3.0%	4.46	4.51	+0.6
2029	33	MLB CTX	MIA	26	26	162	684	120	53	22	100%	6.2	17.5%	7.8%	9.7%	3.3%	4.66	4.79	+0.0
2030	34	MLB CTX	MIA	24	24	148	625	104	52	22	100%	6.2	16.6%	8.3%	8.3%	3.6%	4.91	5.09	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		292	281	1776	7374	1445	541	204	96%	6.1	19.6%	7.3%	12.3%	2.8%	3.95	3.89	+21.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	32	200	830	163	61	23	96%	6.1	19.6%	7.3%	12.3%	2.8%	3.95	3.89	+2.4
Career	—	MLE		296	282	1733	7219	1403	577	177	95%	5.9	19.4%	8.0%	11.4%	2.5%	3.74	3.82	+18.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		34	33	200	833	162	67	20	95%	5.9	19.4%	8.0%	11.4%	2.5%	3.74	3.82	+2.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sandy Alcantara (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.35	19.2%	6.9%	2.9%	—	4.87	17.6%	9.8%	487	+0.52	—	—	—
Rolando Arrojo R 2000 · 4.47 FIP	32	SP	4.47	16.1%	8.0%	3.1%	.291	3.68	16.4%	9.2%	185	-0.79	3.50	700	67
Cory Lidle R 2003 · 4.40 FIP	31	SP	4.40	13.3%	6.8%	2.9%	.297	4.23	15.4%	9.5%	567	-0.17	3.48	1,318	66
Hideo Nomo R 2000 · 4.66 FIP	31	SP	4.66	21.9%	10.6%	3.7%	.303	4.13	22.0%	11.4%	637	-0.53	2.76	1,972	66
Robert Person R 2001 · 4.60 FIP	31	SP	4.60	21.1%	8.9%	3.9%	.253	5.06	16.0%	2.7%	99	+0.46	3.41	885	65
Ryan Franklin R 2004 · 5.05 FIP	31	SP	5.05	12.0%	6.9%	3.8%	.284	4.65	12.1%	6.0%	348	-0.40	3.12	1,201	65
Jeremy Guthrie R 2010 · 4.08 FIP	31	SP	4.08	13.6%	5.6%	2.6%	.247	4.68	13.2%	6.8%	601	+0.60	4.08	1,834	62
Tanner Roark R 2018 · 3.99 FIP	31	SP	3.99	19.2%	6.2%	3.2%	.289	4.57	21.1%	13.1%	259	+0.58	2.40	1,194	62
Miguel González R 2015 · 4.53 FIP	31	SP	4.53	17.5%	7.9%	3.5%	.289	4.23	15.9%	9.0%	325	-0.30	3.72	905	61
Elmer Dessens R 2002 · 4.53 FIP	31	SP	4.53	12.6%	5.6%	3.3%	.257	4.20	14.6%	8.4%	346	-0.33	3.55	1,167	60
Miguel Batista R 2002 · 3.81 FIP	31	SP-	3.81	14.2%	8.5%	1.5%	.267	4.13	14.9%	6.3%	467	+0.32	3.39	1,943	58
Paul Wilson R 2004 · 4.57 FIP	31	SP	4.57	14.7%	7.3%	3.3%	.278	5.32	13.4%	6.3%	46	+0.75	2.59	942	58
Mike Fiers R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	31	SP	4.30	18.5%	5.8%	3.7%	.308	4.96	19.2%	12.2%	510	+0.66	2.83	1,140	57
Tanyon Sturtze R 2002 · 4.84 FIP	31	SP	4.84	13.6%	8.6%	3.3%	.317	4.69	14.3%	5.4%	245	-0.15	4.33	787	55
Chase Anderson R 2019 · 4.39 FIP	31	SP	4.39	20.9%	8.1%	3.7%	.259	5.39	19.2%	10.0%	218	+1.00	3.30	1,260	54
Miles Mikolas R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	30	SP	4.11	18.8%	4.1%	3.8%	.295	4.02	18.4%	13.4%	266	-0.09	3.13	1,386	54
Garrett Stephenson R 2003 · 5.24 FIP	31	SP	5.24	12.2%	7.6%	4.0%	.241	—	—	—	—	—	3.95	645	53
Hiroki Kuroda R 2008 · 3.31 FIP	33	SP	3.31	14.9%	4.4%	1.7%	.274	3.36	19.1%	14.4%	516	+0.05	2.96	1,319	52
Cory Riordan R 2016 · 4.24 FIP	30	SP	4.24	14.3%	5.0%	3.1%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	4.24	154	49
Kenshin Kawakami R 2009 · 3.97 FIP	34	SP-	3.97	15.7%	7.6%	2.2%	.277	4.06	15.1%	9.5%	87	+0.09	3.97	244	47
Matt Buschmann R 2015 · 4.03 FIP	31	SP	4.03	17.2%	8.7%	2.3%	.282	4.84	12.8%	4.4%	142	+0.81	4.03	277	47

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	9.8	164	19.5%	7.4%	1.10	4.03
Gene Conley ('52-'63, 16 WAR*)	7.9	159	19.9%*	7.2%*	1.08*	4.21*
Dave Goltz ('72-'83, 25 WAR*)	10.2	170	19.7%*	7.4%*	0.97*	4.07*
Matt Garza ('17)	8.6	143	18.9%	7.9%	1.04	4.09
Mike Boddicker ('80-'93, 30 WAR*)	10.6	177	20.3%*	7.8%*	0.99*	3.95*
Aaron Harang ('15)	11.6	166	18.5%	7.1%	1.16	4.26
Josh Beckett ('14)	10.3	146	22.2%	7.3%	1.04	3.88