Jake Sanchez prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Jake Sanchez P El Paso Chihuahuas

Age 36 RHP 6'1" / 205 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 34 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.57

FIP4.57

K%21.7%

BB%9.9%

K-BB%11.8%

ROS IP34

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 34 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	151	675	106	45	12	100%	5.6	12.8%	7.1%	5.7%	2.3%	4.71	4.19	—
2015	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	151	675	106	45	12	100%	5.6	15.7%	6.7%	9.0%	1.8%	4.71	3.62	—
2016	26	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	44	1	67	278	72	15	2	2%	1.5	21.0%	5.9%	15.0%	0.9%	3.10	2.55	—
2016	26	AA RAW	Midland RockHounds	44	1	67	278	72	15	2	2%	1.5	25.9%	5.4%	20.5%	0.7%	3.10	2.00	—
2017	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	0	26	100	33	6	0	0%	1.1	23.5%	5.9%	17.6%	0.0%	1.37	1.86	—
2017	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	0	26	100	33	6	0	0%	1.1	33.0%	6.0%	27.0%	0.0%	1.37	1.28	—
2018	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	0	43	188	40	12	4	0%	1.3	19.2%	5.6%	13.6%	2.6%	3.98	3.62	—
2018	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	0	43	188	40	12	4	0%	1.3	21.3%	6.4%	14.9%	2.1%	3.98	3.29	—
2019	29	AAA MLE	Toros de Tijuana	36	0	38	155	42	7	3	0%	1.1	23.8%	4.7%	19.1%	2.1%	4.50	2.83	—
2019	29	AAA RAW	Toros de Tijuana	36	0	38	155	42	7	3	0%	1.1	27.1%	4.5%	22.6%	1.9%	4.50	2.47	—
2023	33	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	44	0	57	263	62	31	9	0%	1.3	20.3%	10.6%	9.7%	3.6%	5.68	4.70	—
2023	33	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	44	0	57	263	62	31	9	0%	1.3	20.3%	10.6%	9.7%	3.6%	5.68	4.70	—
2023	33	AAA RAW	El Paso Chihuahuas	44	0	57	263	62	31	9	0%	1.3	23.6%	11.8%	11.8%	3.4%	5.68	4.61	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	36	MLB	SD	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.7%	9.9%	11.8%	3.0%	4.57	4.57	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	37	MLB MLE	SD	28	0	30	126	27	13	4	0%	1.1	21.1%	10.5%	10.7%	3.5%	4.77	4.92	-0.1
2027	37	MLB CTX	SD	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.1%	10.5%	10.7%	3.5%	4.77	4.92	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		0	0	0	1	0	0	0	—	—	21.1%	10.5%	10.7%	3.5%	4.77	4.54	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	0	0	0	0%	1.1	21.1%	10.5%	10.7%	3.5%	4.77	4.54	+0.0
Career	—	MLE		208	28	382	1659	295	116	36	13%	1.8	17.8%	7.0%	10.7%	2.1%	4.24	3.67	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		109	15	200	869	154	61	19	13%	1.8	17.8%	7.0%	10.7%	2.1%	4.24	3.67	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jake Sanchez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.57	21.7%	9.9%	3.0%	—	4.92	21.1%	10.7%	30	+0.35	—	—	—
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	80
Juan Sandoval R 2017 · 3.42 FIP	36	SU	3.42	16.7%	7.2%	1.5%	.298	5.41	15.9%	8.7%	57	+1.99	3.24	225	74
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	34	SU	4.02	18.1%	11.3%	1.9%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	72
Rudy Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	36	SU	4.72	15.8%	7.1%	3.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	119	71
Salvador Valdez R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	36	SW	4.30	17.1%	8.2%	2.9%	.405	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	326	70
Matt Miller R 2006 · 4.98 FIP	34	SU	4.98	18.5%	13.8%	3.1%	.214	—	—	—	—	—	2.13	101	69
Zack Segovia R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	36	SU	4.55	17.6%	13.6%	2.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	144	69
Joe Nelson R 2009 · 5.35 FIP	34	SU	5.35	19.8%	14.3%	3.9%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	139	69
Jim Miller R 2016 · 5.43 FIP	34	SU	5.43	20.4%	14.1%	4.1%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.95	140	68
Daniel Guerrero R 2019 · 5.59 FIP	34	SW	5.59	14.7%	11.1%	4.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	4.61	269	65
Rafael Martín R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	35	SU	4.71	22.5%	6.0%	5.0%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	227	64
Erubiel Gonzalez R 2015 · 3.43 FIP	36	SU	3.43	12.4%	6.0%	1.1%	.328	3.26	14.8%	10.4%	69	-0.17	2.99	119	63
Jesus Adrian Castillo R 2019 · 5.13 FIP	35	SU	5.13	13.1%	7.8%	3.9%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	2.23	173	63
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	3.93	194	63
Chris Nichting R 2002 · 4.67 FIP	36	SU	4.67	16.6%	3.3%	4.6%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	103	63
Daniel Bard R 2021 · 3.62 FIP	36	SU	3.62	26.3%	11.5%	2.3%	.337	3.64	24.6%	10.3%	110	+0.02	2.56	456	56
Brian Sweeney R 2010 · 4.63 FIP	36	SU	4.63	9.5%	3.4%	3.5%	.226	—	—	—	—	—	3.03	108	56
Tony Pena Jr. R 2017 · 3.43 FIP	36	SU	3.43	10.9%	4.3%	1.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	128	54
Yoshihisa Hirano R 2020 · 5.02 FIP	36	SU	5.02	17.5%	12.7%	3.3%	.381	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	132	54
Leo Rosales R 2017 · 4.24 FIP	36	SU	4.24	7.8%	8.2%	1.4%	.203	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	130	53

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	32	21.4%	10.2%	1.25	4.66
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Manny Acosta ('12)	1.2	41	20.5%	10.9%	1.09	3.99
Chris Ray ('11)	1.4	47	19.1%	10.2%	1.12	4.10
Josh Lindblom ('21)	1.0	52	22.1%	9.6%	1.25	4.78
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41