Caleb Simpson prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Caleb Simpson P Columbus Clippers

Age 34 RHP 6'4" / 231 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 6 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA4.99

FIP4.99

K%20.8%

BB%12.6%

K-BB%8.2%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 6 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	25	A+ MLE	San Jose Giants	44	0	60	260	80	39	8	0%	1.4	23.7%	17.2%	6.4%	3.8%	4.68	5.37	—
2017	25	A+ RAW	San Jose Giants	44	0	60	260	80	39	8	0%	1.4	30.8%	15.0%	15.8%	3.1%	4.68	4.12	—
2018	26	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	29	0	29	137	37	25	0	0%	1.0	21.9%	20.1%	1.8%	0.0%	1.53	3.80	—
2018	26	AA RAW	Richmond Flying Squirrels	29	0	29	137	37	25	0	0%	1.0	27.0%	18.2%	8.8%	0.0%	1.53	3.13	—
2019	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	0	42	181	56	28	2	0%	1.2	24.7%	17.3%	7.4%	1.5%	3.00	4.02	—
2019	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	0	42	181	56	28	2	0%	1.2	30.9%	15.5%	15.5%	1.1%	3.00	3.05	—
2021	29	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	13	0	14	61	21	7	2	0%	1.1	30.3%	12.0%	18.2%	2.7%	3.86	3.57	—
2021	29	AAA RAW	Worcester Red Sox	13	0	14	61	21	7	2	0%	1.1	34.4%	11.5%	23.0%	3.3%	3.86	3.46	—
2022	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	0	40	187	43	23	4	0%	1.3	19.7%	13.0%	6.7%	2.5%	7.20	4.46	—
2022	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	0	40	187	43	23	4	0%	1.3	23.0%	12.3%	10.7%	2.1%	7.20	3.98	—
2023	31	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	11	1	12	60	8	19	3	9%	1.1	11.5%	28.5%	-17.0%	5.3%	7.71	8.65	—
2023	31	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	11	1	12	60	8	19	3	9%	1.1	11.5%	28.5%	-17.0%	5.3%	7.71	8.65	—
2023	31	AAA RAW	Columbus Clippers	11	1	12	60	8	19	3	9%	1.1	13.3%	31.7%	-18.3%	5.0%	7.71	9.96	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	34	MLB	CLE	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.8%	12.6%	8.2%	3.0%	4.99	4.99	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	35	MLB MLE	CLE	19	0	20	84	17	11	3	0%	1.1	20.4%	12.8%	7.7%	3.4%	5.10	5.23	-0.2
2027	35	MLB CTX	CLE	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	20.4%	12.8%	7.7%	3.4%	5.10	5.23	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		1	0	1	5	1	1	0	0%	1.1	20.4%	12.8%	7.7%	3.4%	5.10	4.85	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	182	182	0	0%	1.1	20.4%	12.8%	7.7%	3.4%	5.10	4.85	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		161	1	197	886	199	153	22	1%	1.2	22.4%	17.2%	5.2%	2.5%	4.48	4.76	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		164	1	200	901	202	155	22	1%	1.2	22.4%	17.2%	5.2%	2.5%	4.48	4.76	-1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Caleb Simpson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.99	20.8%	12.6%	3.0%	—	5.23	20.4%	7.7%	20	+0.24	—	—	—
Leo Rosales R 2015 · 3.99 FIP	34	SU	3.99	18.1%	10.8%	1.9%	.261	4.24	7.8%	-0.4%	22	+0.25	3.85	130	81
Matt Miller R 2006 · 4.98 FIP	34	SU	4.98	18.5%	13.8%	3.1%	.214	—	—	—	—	—	2.13	101	80
Diego Moreno R 2021 · 4.75 FIP	34	SU	4.75	18.6%	9.4%	3.7%	.232	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	187	80
Joe Nelson R 2009 · 5.35 FIP	34	SU	5.35	19.8%	14.3%	3.9%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	139	77
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2019 · 6.14 FIP	34	SU	6.14	17.9%	14.2%	5.0%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	170	77
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	76
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	34	SU	4.02	18.1%	11.3%	1.9%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	75
Jim Miller R 2016 · 5.43 FIP	34	SU	5.43	20.4%	14.1%	4.1%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.95	140	74
Carlos Fisher R 2017 · 3.91 FIP	34	SU	3.91	18.1%	12.9%	1.3%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	245	74
Mark Serrano R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	33	SU	5.25	20.2%	7.9%	5.2%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	120	73
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	70
Matt Bush R 2018 · 4.72 FIP	32	SU	4.72	17.6%	13.0%	2.7%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	2.87	249	70
Juan Sandoval R 2015 · 3.82 FIP	34	SU	3.82	15.4%	6.0%	2.3%	.294	3.33	17.4%	8.8%	116	-0.49	3.24	225	69
Willie Eyre R 2011 · 4.18 FIP	33	SU	4.18	13.9%	6.9%	2.5%	.182	—	—	—	—	—	2.87	164	69
Hector Navarro R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	35	SU	4.35	15.0%	5.4%	3.3%	.281	3.00	15.2%	9.0%	81	-1.35	2.30	126	68
Austin Adams R 2019 · 5.80 FIP	32	SU	5.80	20.8%	10.6%	5.7%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	162	67
Josh Lueke R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	34	SU	4.11	20.4%	6.4%	3.5%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	191	66
Jean Machi R 2016 · 4.36 FIP	34	SU	4.36	18.3%	6.6%	3.6%	.282	4.12	18.6%	12.0%	67	-0.24	2.16	306	65
Raul Barron R 2019 · 5.92 FIP	33	SU	5.92	11.4%	8.9%	4.8%	.265	—	—	—	—	—	3.04	201	64
Fernando Villalobos R 2017 · 4.70 FIP	32	SU	4.70	10.6%	8.0%	2.7%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	152	64