Sterling Sharp prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Sterling Sharp P Portland Sea Dogs

Age 31 RHP 6'3" / 182 lbs AA peak 0.3 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 55 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.88

FIP4.88

K%18.3%

BB%10.0%

K-BB%8.2%

ROS IP56

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 55 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

SL-1.0

FB-2.3

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	21	ROK MLE	GCL Nationals	11	7	42	172	35	6	2	64%	3.8	13.8%	4.4%	9.5%	1.6%	3.24	3.38	—
2016	21	ROK RAW	GCL Nationals	11	7	42	172	35	6	2	64%	3.8	20.3%	3.5%	16.9%	1.2%	3.24	2.48	—
2017	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	22	125	536	95	27	12	92%	5.2	13.3%	5.9%	7.4%	2.8%	3.97	4.27	—
2017	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	22	125	536	95	27	12	92%	5.2	17.7%	5.0%	12.7%	2.2%	3.97	3.48	—
2018	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	148	641	105	47	10	100%	5.5	12.9%	8.2%	4.7%	2.0%	3.70	4.14	—
2018	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	148	641	105	47	10	100%	5.5	16.4%	7.3%	9.0%	1.6%	3.70	3.51	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	10	52	220	47	14	1	100%	5.2	17.0%	7.2%	9.8%	0.5%	3.83	2.85	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	10	52	220	47	14	1	100%	5.2	21.4%	6.4%	15.0%	0.5%	3.83	2.35	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	4	0	5	29	3	5	1	0%	1.3	10.3%	17.2%	-6.9%	3.4%	10.12	6.30	-0.1
2020	25	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	4	0	5	29	3	5	1	0%	1.3	10.3%	17.2%	-6.9%	3.4%	10.12	7.22	-0.2
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	17	85	385	59	45	12	89%	4.5	13.3%	12.4%	0.9%	3.6%	4.43	5.50	—
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	17	85	385	59	45	12	89%	4.5	15.3%	11.7%	3.6%	3.1%	4.43	5.13	—
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	20	101	447	90	41	10	80%	4.0	17.2%	9.8%	7.5%	2.4%	5.45	4.17	—
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	20	101	447	90	41	10	80%	4.0	20.1%	9.2%	11.0%	2.2%	5.45	3.83	—
2023	28	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	20	18	86	382	65	37	12	90%	4.3	13.8%	10.7%	3.1%	3.6%	5.36	5.26	—
2023	28	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	20	18	86	382	65	37	12	90%	4.3	13.8%	10.7%	3.1%	3.6%	5.36	5.26	—
2023	28	AA RAW	Portland Sea Dogs	20	18	86	382	65	37	12	90%	4.3	17.0%	9.7%	7.3%	3.1%	5.36	4.70	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			4	0	5	29	3	5	1	0%	1.3	10.3%	17.2%	-6.9%	3.4%	10.12	7.22	-0.2
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	31	MLB	BOS	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.3%	10.0%	8.2%	3.0%	4.88	4.88	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	BOS	9	9	52	218	40	23	7	100%	5.7	18.3%	10.3%	8.0%	3.3%	4.96	5.05	-0.1
2028	33	MLB MLE	BOS	8	8	47	200	36	21	7	100%	5.9	18.2%	10.7%	7.5%	3.5%	5.11	5.25	-0.2
2029	34	MLB MLE	BOS	7	7	43	182	33	20	7	100%	6.1	17.9%	11.1%	6.8%	3.8%	5.31	5.47	-0.3
2027	32	MLB CTX	BOS	3	3	16	68	12	7	2	100%	5.3	18.3%	10.3%	8.0%	3.3%	4.96	5.05	-0.0
2028	33	MLB CTX	BOS	4	4	24	101	18	11	4	100%	6.0	18.2%	10.7%	7.5%	3.5%	5.11	5.25	-0.1
2029	34	MLB CTX	BOS	3	3	20	84	15	9	3	100%	6.7	17.9%	11.1%	6.8%	3.8%	5.31	5.47	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		14	10	66	285	49	33	10	71%	4.7	17.3%	11.4%	5.9%	3.6%	5.54	5.03	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		43	31	200	864	149	100	30	72%	4.7	17.3%	11.4%	5.9%	3.6%	5.54	5.03	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		140	121	643	2812	399	244	71	86%	4.6	14.2%	8.7%	5.5%	2.5%	4.38	4.38	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	38	200	874	124	76	22	86%	4.6	14.2%	8.7%	5.5%	2.5%	4.38	4.38	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sterling Sharp (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.88	18.3%	10.0%	3.0%	—	5.24	18.2%	7.4%	142	+0.36	—	—	—
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	87
Tyler Herron R 2017 · 4.02 FIP	30	SP	4.02	16.4%	8.7%	2.2%	.377	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	117	79
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	75
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	74
Reinier Roibal R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	30	SP	4.91	17.5%	11.8%	3.3%	.426	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	133	73
Daniel Guerrero R 2016 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP	4.81	12.4%	11.6%	2.3%	.328	4.93	11.7%	2.0%	175	+0.12	4.61	269	73
Miguel Ruiz R 2017 · 5.60 FIP	31	SP	5.60	10.6%	11.0%	3.6%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	5.60	117	72
Robert Ellis R 2001 · 4.84 FIP	30	SP	4.84	9.9%	7.7%	2.9%	.287	8.08	9.0%	-2.2%	18	+3.24	4.84	110	71
Andres Ivan Meza R 2017 · 4.14 FIP	30	SP	4.14	12.5%	8.5%	1.8%	.351	4.33	11.7%	4.0%	89	+0.19	4.14	275	70
Stan Spencer R 2000 · 4.42 FIP	30	SP	4.42	19.2%	8.7%	3.4%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	119	70
Patrick Johnson R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	30	SP	4.14	15.7%	9.3%	2.2%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	248	69
Hector Galvan R 2019 · 4.84 FIP	31	SP-	4.84	14.3%	12.2%	2.6%	.357	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	406	69
André Rienzo R 2019 · 5.33 FIP	31	SP	5.33	17.9%	11.8%	4.1%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	321	68
Erik Hiljus R 2002 · 6.07 FIP	29	SP	6.07	14.1%	9.7%	5.3%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	3.35	112	68
Danny Gutierrez R 2017 · 4.11 FIP	30	SP	4.11	15.1%	6.1%	2.8%	.362	—	—	—	—	—	3.34	239	68
Jose Samayoa R 2019 · 4.05 FIP	29	SP	4.05	19.4%	7.0%	3.1%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	262	67
Kohei Arihara R 2022 · 4.58 FIP	29	SP-	4.58	16.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	135	67
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2016 · 4.92 FIP	31	SP-	4.92	14.9%	7.2%	4.0%	.277	5.19	16.3%	8.8%	259	+0.27	3.97	567	66
Walter Silva R 2009 · 5.72 FIP	32	SP	5.72	9.1%	12.4%	3.3%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	453	66
Alex Caldera R 2016 · 4.54 FIP	30	SP	4.54	11.9%	11.1%	1.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.54	120	66

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	51	17.9%	10.7%	1.32	5.18
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Will Cunnane ('04)	1.4	46	18.9%	10.4%	1.25	5.26
Scott Proctor ('11)	1.7	57	19.0%	10.9%	1.52	4.78
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98