Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 21 | ROK | AZL Padres | 10 | 8 | 49 | 202 | 46 | 12 | 2 | 80% | 4.9 | 15.5% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 1.4% | 2.02 | 3.49 | — |
| 2015 | 21 | ROK | AZL Padres | 10 | 8 | 49 | 202 | 46 | 12 | 2 | 80% | 4.9 | 22.8% | 5.9% | 16.8% | 1.0% | 2.02 | 2.49 | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 16 | 7 | 57 | 249 | 54 | 20 | 5 | 44% | 3.6 | 16.0% | 9.5% | 6.6% | 3.4% | 4.71 | 4.79 | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 16 | 7 | 57 | 249 | 54 | 20 | 5 | 44% | 3.6 | 21.7% | 8.0% | 13.7% | 2.0% | 4.71 | 3.40 | — |
| 2017 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 6 | 50 | 216 | 61 | 20 | 6 | 46% | 3.9 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 3.6% | 3.75 | 4.62 | — |
| 2017 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 6 | 50 | 216 | 61 | 20 | 6 | 46% | 3.9 | 28.2% | 9.3% | 19.0% | 2.8% | 3.75 | 3.42 | — |
| 2018 | 24 | MIX | 4 levels | 31 | 16 | 116 | 493 | 136 | 37 | 16 | 52% | 3.7 | 21.3% | 8.4% | 12.9% | 6.0% | 4.28 | 5.68 | — |
| 2018 | 24 | MIX | 4 levels | 31 | 16 | 116 | 493 | 136 | 37 | 16 | 52% | 3.7 | 27.6% | 7.5% | 20.1% | 3.2% | 4.28 | 3.51 | — |
| 2019 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 21 | 129 | 571 | 116 | 49 | 29 | 78% | 4.8 | 16.9% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 6.19 | 5.76 | — |
| 2019 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 21 | 129 | 571 | 116 | 49 | 29 | 78% | 4.8 | 20.3% | 8.6% | 11.7% | 5.1% | 6.19 | 5.36 | — |
| 2021 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 0 | 38 | 180 | 59 | 16 | 8 | 0% | 1.4 | 23.9% | 11.7% | 12.3% | 8.8% | 7.34 | 7.39 | — |
| 2021 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 0 | 38 | 180 | 59 | 16 | 8 | 0% | 1.4 | 32.8% | 8.9% | 23.9% | 4.4% | 7.34 | 3.99 | — |
| 2022 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 0 | 45 | 178 | 55 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 1.3 | 26.2% | 8.7% | 17.5% | 3.2% | 3.43 | 3.77 | — |
| 2022 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 0 | 45 | 178 | 55 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 1.3 | 30.9% | 9.0% | 21.9% | 3.4% | 3.43 | 3.46 | — |
| 2024 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 66 | 280 | 77 | 25 | 10 | 0% | 1.5 | 25.1% | 9.2% | 15.9% | 3.9% | 5.07 | 4.31 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 66 | 280 | 77 | 25 | 10 | 0% | 1.5 | 27.5% | 8.9% | 18.6% | 3.6% | 5.07 | 3.88 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | MIA | 40 | 0 | 42 | 178 | 43 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.1% | 9.2% | 14.9% | 3.2% | 4.35 | 4.38 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | MIA | 37 | 0 | 39 | 163 | 38 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.2% | 9.6% | 13.5% | 3.5% | 4.53 | 4.65 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | MIA | 13 | 0 | 14 | 59 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.2% | 9.6% | 13.5% | 3.5% | 4.53 | 4.65 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 29 | 0 | 35 | 152 | 35 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 23.0% | 9.1% | 13.9% | 3.3% | 5.98 | 4.15 | +0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 164 | 0 | 200 | 872 | 201 | 80 | 29 | 0% | 1.2 | 23.0% | 9.1% | 13.9% | 3.3% | 5.98 | 4.15 | +2.9 | ||
| Career | — | 203 | 58 | 550 | 2369 | 479 | 219 | 112 | 29% | 2.7 | 20.2% | 9.2% | 11.0% | 4.7% | 4.76 | 5.15 | +1.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 74 | 21 | 200 | 861 | 174 | 79 | 41 | 29% | 2.7 | 20.2% | 9.2% | 11.0% | 4.7% | 4.76 | 5.15 | +0.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Emmanuel Ramirez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.38 | 24.1% | 9.2% | 3.2% | — | 4.65 | 23.2% | 13.5% | 39 | +0.27 | — | — | — |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2027 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.40 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.99 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.41 | 3.99 | 104 | 62 |
| Tim Dillard R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.70 | 15.9% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .330 | 3.83 | 16.7% | 8.1% | 144 | +0.13 | 3.15 | 352 | 62 |
| Juan Nicasio R 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.26 | 20.7% | 7.4% | 1.8% | .349 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.48 | 338 | 62 |
| Miguel Socolovich R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.60 | 20.8% | 5.6% | 2.8% | .338 | 3.59 | 18.4% | 13.7% | 42 | -0.01 | 2.60 | 283 | 61 |
| James Hoyt R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.47 | 22.2% | 9.9% | 1.8% | .355 | 5.93 | 22.1% | 10.4% | 50 | +2.46 | 1.60 | 312 | 61 |
| Yoshihisa Hirano R 2028 · 3.32 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.32 | 22.5% | 7.3% | 2.2% | .242 | 3.84 | 24.6% | 15.2% | 65 | +0.52 | 3.32 | 132 | 60 |
| Jared Hughes R 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.36 | 19.7% | 7.8% | 1.7% | .260 | 4.04 | 19.3% | 10.9% | 172 | +0.68 | 3.02 | 358 | 59 |
| Mike Broadway R 2025 · 4.56 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.56 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 59 |
| Preston Guilmet R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.38 | 26.6% | 6.1% | 5.0% | .328 | 4.56 | 28.6% | 22.0% | 52 | +0.18 | 2.43 | 288 | 59 |
| Josh Zeid R 2024 · 5.41 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.41 | 18.3% | 10.8% | 4.5% | .334 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 265 | 59 |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2024 · 4.26 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.26 | 17.0% | 7.1% | 3.1% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 147 | 59 |
| Angel Sánchez R 2027 · 4.98 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.98 | 19.4% | 12.2% | 3.6% | .333 | 3.80 | 12.1% | 6.3% | 27 | -1.18 | 3.80 | 284 | 58 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.26 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.99 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.73 | 3.26 | 122 | 58 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.07 | 17.7% | 8.3% | 2.6% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.53 | 365 | 58 |
| Casey Coleman R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 32 | SW | 5.00 | 18.4% | 9.0% | 4.2% | .319 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.86 | 306 | 58 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2027 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 58 |
| Angel Castro R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.89 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.9% | .268 | 4.43 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.46 | 3.48 | 292 | 57 |
| Ryan Cook R 2025 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 57 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.20 | 24.5% | 7.4% | 4.1% | .291 | 5.21 | 18.0% | 8.4% | 36 | +1.01 | 3.05 | 176 | 57 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.31 | 23.2% | 9.2% | 3.6% | .319 | 2.62 | 28.5% | 21.7% | 186 | -1.69 | 2.01 | 380 | 57 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 40 | 23.6% | 9.4% | 1.29 | 4.44 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Colin Poche ('24) | 4 | 52 | 27.0% | 9.2% | 1.34 | 3.63 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |