Freddy Peralta

P Tampa Bay Rays

Age 31 RHP 6'0" / 198 lbs MLB Svc 7.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 2.2 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR
2024	28	MLBMIL	32	32	174	3.68	3.92	27.6%	9.4%	2.0
2025	29	MLBMIL	33	33	177	2.70	3.46	28.2%	9.1%	3.1
2026	30	MLBTB	32	32	169	4.42	4.14	21.4%	8.6%	1.5
2027PROJ	31	MLBTB	27	27	160	4.00	4.26	24.2%	8.8%	1.2
2028PROJ	32	MLBTB	25	25	148	4.26	4.47	23.4%	9.2%	0.7
2029PROJ	33	MLBTB	23	23	136	4.55	4.75	22.6%	9.7%	0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 6.7 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service7.523First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$17M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs60

Whiff%55

FB Velo47

K%45

CompsChase Anderson (age 31) · Kenta Maeda (age 31) · Hideo Nomo (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109101vR 92

ERA4.00

FIP4.26

K%24.2%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%15.4%

Proj IP160

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 160 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—55

STUF6060

CTRL5050

CMD5555

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4794.3

Whiff%

p5526.1%

p4521.4%

xwOBA vs

p600.302

CH+3.6 (23%)

FB+2.6 (53%)

CU (13%)

SL-1.5 (10%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2018

Service 7.523 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$17M	+1.2	$10M	-$7M
Totals		$17M		$10M	-$7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	19	ROK MLE	AZL Mariners	11	9	57	233	67	8	1	82%	5.2	19.6%	4.3%	15.3%	0.6%	4.11	2.32	—
2015	19	ROK RAW	AZL Mariners	11	9	57	233	67	8	1	82%	5.2	28.8%	3.4%	25.3%	0.4%	4.11	1.40	—
2016	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	10	82	350	97	36	7	42%	3.4	20.7%	12.0%	8.6%	2.3%	3.62	4.12	—
2016	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	10	82	350	97	36	7	42%	3.4	27.7%	10.3%	17.4%	2.0%	3.62	3.16	—
2017	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	19	120	506	169	62	8	76%	4.8	26.4%	13.8%	12.7%	1.9%	2.62	3.65	—
2017	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	19	120	506	169	62	8	76%	4.8	33.4%	12.3%	21.1%	1.6%	2.62	2.70	—
2018	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	28	141	584	188	66	9	93%	4.7	29.9%	11.7%	18.2%	1.5%	3.76	2.87	+3.6
2018	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	30	28	141	584	188	66	9	93%	4.7	32.2%	11.3%	20.9%	1.5%	3.76	2.67	+4.0
2019	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	44	9	97	430	139	40	16	20%	2.2	30.1%	9.4%	20.7%	3.7%	5.03	3.80	+0.9
2019	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	44	9	97	430	139	40	16	20%	2.2	32.3%	9.3%	23.0%	3.7%	5.03	3.62	+1.1
2020	24	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	15	1	29	125	47	12	2	7%	2.0	37.6%	9.6%	28.0%	1.5%	3.99	1.98	+0.9
2020	24	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	15	1	29	125	47	12	2	7%	2.0	37.6%	9.6%	28.0%	1.6%	3.99	2.01	+0.9
2021	25	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	28	27	144	580	195	55	14	96%	5.2	33.6%	9.5%	24.1%	2.3%	2.81	2.72	+4.0
2021	25	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	28	27	144	580	195	55	14	96%	5.2	33.6%	9.5%	24.1%	2.4%	2.81	2.80	+3.8
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	19	83	338	94	28	7	95%	4.2	27.1%	8.5%	18.6%	1.8%	3.46	2.88	+2.1
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	19	83	338	94	28	7	95%	4.2	27.8%	8.3%	19.5%	2.1%	3.46	2.94	+2.0
2023	27	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	30	30	166	680	210	54	26	100%	5.5	30.9%	7.9%	22.9%	3.6%	3.86	3.50	+2.8
2023	27	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	30	30	166	680	210	54	26	100%	5.5	30.9%	7.9%	22.9%	3.8%	3.86	3.58	+2.7
2024	28	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	32	32	174	725	200	68	26	100%	5.4	27.6%	9.4%	18.2%	3.4%	3.68	3.83	+2.2
2024	28	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	32	32	174	725	200	68	26	100%	5.4	27.6%	9.4%	18.2%	3.4%	3.68	3.83	+2.2
2024	28	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	32	32	174	725	200	68	26	100%	5.4	27.6%	9.4%	18.2%	3.6%	3.68	3.92	+2.0
2025	29	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	33	33	177	723	204	66	21	100%	5.4	28.2%	9.1%	19.1%	2.8%	2.70	3.39	+3.3
2025	29	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	33	33	177	723	204	66	21	100%	5.4	28.2%	9.1%	19.1%	2.8%	2.70	3.39	+3.3
2025	29	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	33	33	177	723	204	66	21	100%	5.4	28.2%	9.1%	19.1%	2.9%	2.70	3.46	+3.1
2026	30	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	32	32	169	730	156	63	23	100%	5.3	21.4%	8.6%	12.7%	3.2%	4.42	4.17	+1.5
2026	30	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	32	32	169	730	156	63	23	100%	5.3	21.4%	8.6%	12.7%	3.2%	4.42	4.17	+1.5
2026	30	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	32	32	169	730	156	63	23	100%	5.3	21.4%	8.6%	12.7%	3.2%	4.42	4.14	+1.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			243	194	1100	4583	1309	420	141	80%	4.5	28.6%	9.2%	19.4%	3.1%	3.71	3.53	+18.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	TB	27	27	160	676	164	60	21	100%	5.9	24.2%	8.8%	15.4%	3.1%	4.00	4.26	+1.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	TB	25	25	148	624	146	58	21	100%	5.9	23.4%	9.2%	14.2%	3.4%	4.31	4.52	+0.7
2029	33	MLB MLE	TB	23	23	136	572	129	55	21	100%	5.9	22.6%	9.7%	12.9%	3.6%	4.60	4.80	+0.2
2030	34	MLB MLE	TB	21	21	123	521	113	53	20	100%	5.9	21.7%	10.2%	11.5%	3.9%	4.90	5.10	-0.3
2028	32	MLB CTX	TB	25	25	148	625	146	58	20	100%	5.9	23.4%	9.2%	14.2%	3.3%	4.26	4.47	+0.7
2029	33	MLB CTX	TB	23	23	136	574	130	56	20	100%	5.9	22.6%	9.7%	12.9%	3.5%	4.55	4.75	+0.2
2030	34	MLB CTX	TB	20	20	123	519	113	53	20	100%	6.2	21.7%	10.2%	11.5%	3.8%	4.84	5.04	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		311	262	1506	6299	1697	586	201	84%	4.8	26.9%	9.3%	17.6%	3.2%	3.93	3.76	+20.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		41	35	200	836	225	78	27	84%	4.8	26.9%	9.3%	17.6%	3.2%	3.93	3.76	+2.7
Career	—	MLE		324	249	1439	6004	1660	577	158	77%	4.4	27.6%	9.6%	18.0%	2.6%	3.60	3.43	+18.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	35	200	834	231	80	22	77%	4.4	27.6%	9.6%	18.0%	2.6%	3.60	3.43	+2.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Freddy Peralta (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.26	24.2%	8.8%	3.1%	—	4.79	22.6%	12.9%	406	+0.53	—	—	—
Chase Anderson R 2019 · 4.39 FIP	31	SP	4.39	20.9%	8.1%	3.7%	.259	5.39	19.2%	10.0%	218	+1.00	3.30	1,260	72
Kenta Maeda R 2019 · 3.68 FIP	31	SP-	3.68	27.1%	8.0%	3.4%	.240	3.44	27.8%	22.0%	173	-0.24	2.87	1,092	66
Hideo Nomo R 2000 · 4.66 FIP	31	SP	4.66	21.9%	10.6%	3.7%	.303	4.13	22.0%	11.4%	637	-0.53	2.76	1,972	64
Miguel González R 2015 · 4.53 FIP	31	SP	4.53	17.5%	7.9%	3.5%	.289	4.23	15.9%	9.0%	325	-0.30	3.72	905	63
Tanner Roark R 2018 · 3.99 FIP	31	SP	3.99	19.2%	6.2%	3.2%	.289	4.57	21.1%	13.1%	259	+0.58	2.40	1,194	60
Tom Koehler R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	31	SP-	4.66	22.4%	9.0%	4.2%	.298	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	822	57
Rolando Arrojo R 2000 · 4.47 FIP	32	SP	4.47	16.1%	8.0%	3.1%	.291	3.68	16.4%	9.2%	185	-0.79	3.50	700	56
Mike Fiers R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	31	SP	4.30	18.5%	5.8%	3.7%	.308	4.96	19.2%	12.2%	510	+0.66	2.83	1,140	55
Orlando Hernandez R 2001 · 5.30 FIP	31	SP	5.30	18.6%	9.9%	4.6%	.256	3.78	20.4%	13.1%	231	-1.52	3.35	1,315	54
Robert Person R 2001 · 4.60 FIP	31	SP	4.60	21.1%	8.9%	3.9%	.253	5.06	16.0%	2.7%	99	+0.46	3.41	885	52
Miguel Batista R 2002 · 3.81 FIP	31	SP-	3.81	14.2%	8.5%	1.5%	.267	4.13	14.9%	6.3%	467	+0.32	3.39	1,943	51
Marco Estrada R 2014 · 4.70 FIP	31	SW	4.70	20.4%	7.1%	4.4%	.255	4.28	20.9%	12.6%	543	-0.42	3.28	1,244	51
Tim Adleman R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	31	SP	4.30	22.8%	7.8%	3.9%	.266	4.71	18.5%	11.1%	90	+0.41	3.63	605	50
Ramon Ortiz R 2004 · 4.44 FIP	31	SW	4.44	15.1%	6.3%	3.3%	.296	4.95	12.0%	6.2%	466	+0.51	4.32	1,525	49
Cory Lidle R 2003 · 4.40 FIP	31	SP	4.40	13.3%	6.8%	2.9%	.297	4.23	15.4%	9.5%	567	-0.17	3.48	1,318	48
Brad Peacock R 2019 · 4.22 FIP	31	SP-	4.22	25.1%	8.1%	4.0%	.261	4.15	22.8%	12.5%	96	-0.07	2.97	748	47
Jeremy Guthrie R 2010 · 4.08 FIP	31	SP	4.08	13.6%	5.6%	2.6%	.247	4.68	13.2%	6.8%	601	+0.60	4.08	1,834	47
Paul Wilson R 2004 · 4.57 FIP	31	SP	4.57	14.7%	7.3%	3.3%	.278	5.32	13.4%	6.3%	46	+0.75	2.59	942	45
Elmer Dessens R 2002 · 4.53 FIP	31	SP	4.53	12.6%	5.6%	3.3%	.257	4.20	14.6%	8.4%	346	-0.33	3.55	1,167	44
Ryan Franklin R 2004 · 5.05 FIP	31	SP	5.05	12.0%	6.9%	3.8%	.284	4.65	12.1%	6.0%	348	-0.40	3.12	1,201	44

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	8.3	128	26.7%	9.3%	1.24	3.95
Ralph Branca ('44-'56, 14 WAR*)	7.4	135	26.1%*	9.5%*	1.40*	4.08*
Jose DeLeon ('83-'95, 22 WAR*)	9.5	146	25.8%*	10.4%*	1.01*	4.17*
Carl Erskine ('48-'59, 19 WAR*)	8.6	143	23.7%*	8.4%*	1.30*	4.19*
Chris Archer ('22)	6.8	151	25.4%	8.3%	1.09	3.93
Frankie Montas ('25)	3.9	98	23.6%	8.2%	1.20	4.20
Lance Lynn ('24)	10.0	154	23.7%	8.3%	1.04	3.74