Jonathan Hernández
P
Lehigh Valley IronPigs
+0.1
WAR
Age 30
RHP
6'3" / 190 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA4.93
FIP4.61
xFIP4.84
SIERA4.85
K%22.0%
BB%11.4%
K-BB%10.6%
IP27
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
STUF6060
CTRL2020
CMD3030
K†6060
FB Velo
p8196.7
Whiff%
p8130.1%
K%
p3720.3%
xwOBA vs
p290.337
SL+2.5 (49%)
SI (39%)
CH (12%)
FB-7.2 (39%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 19 | ROK | AZL Rangers | 11 | 9 | 45 | 198 | 33 | 12 | 0 | 11.3% | 7.6% | 0.0% | 3.00 | 3.10 | +0.9 |
| 2016 | 20 | A | Hickory Crawdads | 24 | 22 | 116 | 498 | 85 | 49 | 14 | 12.6% | 11.6% | 3.3% | 4.56 | 5.31 | -0.0 |
| 2017 | 21 | A+ | Down East Wood Ducks | 23 | 22 | 112 | 481 | 110 | 44 | 7 | 17.3% | 10.6% | 1.9% | 4.03 | 4.00 | +1.6 |
| 2018 | 22 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | 22 | 22 | 121 | 496 | 134 | 53 | 12 | 21.3% | 11.9% | 2.4% | 3.63 | 4.13 | +1.6 |
| 2019 | 23 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 31 | 18 | 113 | 496 | 114 | 50 | 14 | 19.3% | 10.8% | 2.8% | 5.03 | 4.37 | +1.2 |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 27 | 0 | 31 | 125 | 31 | 8 | 2 | 24.8% | 6.4% | 1.7% | 2.90 | 2.76 | +0.8 |
| 2022 | 26 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 45 | 0 | 45 | 202 | 45 | 28 | 3 | 21.0% | 14.1% | 1.6% | 3.18 | 4.00 | +0.5 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 57 | 0 | 64 | 276 | 66 | 34 | 5 | 22.5% | 12.7% | 1.5% | 3.25 | 3.65 | +1.0 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 50 | 1 | 65 | 292 | 62 | 37 | 9 | 20.3% | 12.8% | 3.1% | 4.96 | 4.71 | +0.2 |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA | Durham Bulls | 12 | 1 | 12 | 52 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 22.0% | 12.1% | 1.5% | 2.25 | 3.60 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | 6 | 0 | 7 | 32 | 11 | 4 | 0 | — | — | — | 2.70 | — | — |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | PHI | 27 | — | 27 | 115 | 30 | 15 | 3 | 26.0% | 13.3% | 2.9% | 5.13 | 4.58 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 30 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 34 | 147 | 41 | 19 | 3 | 27.8% | 13.1% | 2.3% | 4.65 | 3.68 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | PHI | 26 | — | 26 | 111 | 28 | 15 | 3 | 25.4% | 13.4% | 3.0% | 4.86 | 4.68 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 308 | 95 | 731 | 3148 | 587 | 356 | 70 | 18.7% | 11.3% | 2.2% | 4.01 | 4.19 | +9.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 84 | 26 | 200 | 861 | 161 | 97 | 19 | 18.7% | 11.3% | 2.2% | 4.01 | 4.19 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jonathan Hernández (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.58 | 26.0% | 13.3% | 2.9% | — | 4.68 | 25.4% | 12.0% | 26 | +0.10 | — | — | — |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2029 · 4.47 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.47 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.9% | .263 | 3.98 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.49 | 3.98 | 104 | 79 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2029 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 75 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 73 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 70 |
| Blake Wood R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.79 | 24.5% | 10.6% | 2.6% | .307 | 3.35 | 25.3% | 16.0% | 74 | -0.44 | 2.91 | 210 | 70 |
| Javy Guerra R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.3% | .303 | 3.87 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.43 | 3.01 | 260 | 70 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.06 | 24.4% | 11.8% | 2.8% | .301 | 3.94 | 24.1% | 15.2% | 140 | -0.12 | 1.69 | 468 | 70 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2028 · 3.45 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.45 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.18 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.27 | 2.48 | 147 | 70 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2027 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 70 |
| J.J. Hoover R 2025 · 4.26 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.26 | 27.4% | 12.7% | 3.4% | .360 | 6.40 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 96 | +2.14 | 4.26 | 258 | 69 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.72 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.6% | .287 | 3.88 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.16 | 3.38 | 129 | 69 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.24 | 22.2% | 11.1% | 2.9% | .349 | 3.54 | 17.4% | 8.5% | 65 | -0.70 | 3.05 | 227 | 69 |
| Cody Hall R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.92 | 25.9% | 17.5% | 1.4% | .244 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.51 | 134 | 68 |
| Michael Mariot R 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.10 | 19.8% | 11.1% | 4.1% | .333 | 5.03 | 15.8% | 7.4% | 182 | -0.07 | 2.39 | 676 | 68 |
| Leonel Campos R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.71 | 25.7% | 11.8% | 2.3% | .241 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.63 | 168 | 68 |
| Heath Hembree R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.28 | 26.6% | 9.2% | 4.1% | .260 | 5.25 | 27.8% | 17.4% | 99 | +0.97 | 2.67 | 382 | 67 |
| David Hernandez R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.62 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.5% | .287 | 3.18 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.44 | 2.56 | 268 | 67 |
| R.J. Alvarez R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.66 | 23.3% | 10.8% | 2.1% | .304 | 4.07 | 19.2% | 5.7% | 46 | +0.41 | 3.01 | 302 | 67 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.62 | 22.3% | 11.0% | 1.8% | .247 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 224 | 67 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 23.4% | 8.8% | 3.8% | .245 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 160 | 66 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.