Jonathan Hernández
P
Los Angeles Dodgers
Age 30
RHP
6'3" / 190 lbs
MLB
2026 ROS PROJECTION50 act + 39 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121112vR 103
ERA4.55
FIP4.51
K%24.0%
BB%13.6%
K-BB%10.5%
ROS IP39
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 89 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p8897.2
Whiff%
p1017.8%
K%
p2218.1%
xwOBA vs
p100.370
SL+2.5 (49%)
SI (39%)
CH (12%)
FB-7.2 (39%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 19 | ROK | AZL Rangers | 11 | 9 | 45 | 198 | 33 | 12 | 0 | 82% | 4.1 | 11.3% | 7.6% | 3.8% | 0.0% | 3.00 | 3.10 | — |
| 2015 | 19 | ROK | AZL Rangers | 11 | 9 | 45 | 198 | 33 | 12 | 0 | 82% | 4.1 | 16.7% | 6.1% | 10.6% | 0.0% | 3.00 | 2.43 | — |
| 2016 | 20 | A | Hickory Crawdads | 24 | 22 | 116 | 498 | 85 | 49 | 14 | 92% | 4.8 | 12.6% | 11.6% | 1.0% | 3.0% | 4.56 | 5.18 | — |
| 2016 | 20 | A | Hickory Crawdads | 24 | 22 | 116 | 498 | 85 | 49 | 14 | 92% | 4.8 | 17.1% | 9.8% | 7.2% | 2.8% | 4.56 | 4.47 | — |
| 2017 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 22 | 112 | 481 | 110 | 44 | 7 | 96% | 4.9 | 17.3% | 10.6% | 6.7% | 1.8% | 4.03 | 3.98 | — |
| 2017 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 22 | 112 | 481 | 110 | 44 | 7 | 96% | 4.9 | 22.9% | 9.1% | 13.7% | 1.5% | 4.03 | 3.13 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 22 | 121 | 496 | 134 | 53 | 12 | 100% | 5.5 | 21.3% | 11.9% | 9.3% | 2.1% | 3.63 | 3.96 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 22 | 121 | 496 | 134 | 53 | 12 | 100% | 5.5 | 27.0% | 10.7% | 16.3% | 2.4% | 3.63 | 3.49 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 18 | 113 | 496 | 114 | 50 | 14 | 58% | 3.6 | 19.3% | 10.8% | 8.5% | 2.5% | 5.03 | 4.19 | +1.6 |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 18 | 113 | 496 | 114 | 50 | 14 | 58% | 3.6 | 23.0% | 10.1% | 12.9% | 2.8% | 5.03 | 4.02 | +1.8 |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 27 | 0 | 31 | 125 | 31 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.8% | 6.4% | 18.4% | 1.6% | 2.90 | 2.67 | +0.7 |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 27 | 0 | 31 | 125 | 31 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.8% | 6.4% | 18.4% | 1.6% | 2.90 | 2.71 | +0.7 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 45 | 0 | 45 | 202 | 45 | 28 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.0% | 14.1% | 6.9% | 1.6% | 3.18 | 4.00 | +0.3 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 45 | 0 | 45 | 202 | 45 | 28 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.3% | 13.9% | 8.4% | 1.5% | 3.18 | 3.83 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 57 | 0 | 64 | 276 | 66 | 34 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 12.7% | 9.8% | 1.8% | 3.25 | 3.79 | +0.6 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 57 | 0 | 64 | 276 | 66 | 34 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.9% | 12.3% | 11.6% | 1.8% | 3.25 | 3.65 | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 50 | 1 | 65 | 292 | 62 | 37 | 9 | 2% | 1.3 | 20.3% | 12.8% | 7.4% | 3.0% | 4.96 | 4.68 | -0.0 |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 50 | 1 | 65 | 292 | 62 | 37 | 9 | 2% | 1.3 | 21.2% | 12.7% | 8.6% | 3.1% | 4.96 | 4.69 | -0.0 |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA | Durham Bulls | 12 | 1 | 12 | 52 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 8% | 1.0 | 22.0% | 12.1% | 9.9% | 1.2% | 2.25 | 3.44 | — |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA | Durham Bulls | 12 | 1 | 12 | 52 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 8% | 1.0 | 25.0% | 11.5% | 13.5% | 1.9% | 2.25 | 3.52 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 40 | 0 | 50 | 231 | 60 | 23 | 10 | 0% | 1.2 | 23.6% | 10.2% | 13.4% | 4.6% | 5.80 | 4.92 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | PHI | 37 | 0 | 39 | 166 | 40 | 22 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.0% | 13.6% | 10.5% | 3.1% | 4.55 | 4.51 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | PHI | 37 | 0 | 39 | 165 | 40 | 22 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.0% | 13.6% | 10.5% | 3.1% | 4.55 | 4.51 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 30 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 89 | 397 | 100 | 45 | 15 | — | — | 25.2% | 11.5% | 13.7% | 3.8% | 5.25 | 4.74 | +0.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 30 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 57 | 240 | 100 | 45 | 15 | — | — | 41.5% | 18.9% | 22.6% | 6.3% | 8.20 | 5.46 | -0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | PHI | 51 | 0 | 53 | 224 | 50 | 32 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.1% | 14.4% | 7.7% | 3.4% | 5.24 | 5.32 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | PHI | 47 | 0 | 49 | 207 | 44 | 31 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.3% | 14.8% | 6.5% | 3.7% | 5.44 | 5.57 | -0.6 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | PHI | 48 | 0 | 50 | 211 | 47 | 30 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.1% | 14.4% | 7.7% | 3.4% | 5.24 | 5.32 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | PHI | 45 | 0 | 47 | 198 | 42 | 29 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.3% | 14.8% | 6.5% | 3.7% | 5.44 | 5.57 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 269 | 3 | 307 | 1332 | 294 | 169 | 41 | 1% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 12.7% | 9.3% | 3.1% | 4.88 | 4.53 | +3.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 175 | 2 | 200 | 868 | 192 | 110 | 27 | 1% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 12.7% | 9.3% | 3.1% | 4.88 | 4.53 | +2.0 | ||
| Career | — | 342 | 95 | 774 | 3347 | 631 | 376 | 77 | 28% | 2.3 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 7.6% | 2.3% | 4.14 | 4.19 | +11.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 88 | 25 | 200 | 865 | 163 | 97 | 20 | 28% | 2.3 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 7.6% | 2.3% | 4.14 | 4.19 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jonathan Hernández (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.85 | 24.2% | 14.3% | 2.9% | — | 5.44 | 21.7% | 7.1% | 102 | +0.59 | — | — | — |
| Javy Guerra R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.25 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .303 | 3.99 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.26 | 2.95 | 260 | 70 |
| Bryan Mitchell R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.49 | 20.6% | 12.0% | 2.9% | .305 | 5.01 | 14.4% | 3.9% | 39 | +0.52 | 2.70 | 481 | 69 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 69 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.66 | 18.3% | 10.2% | 3.3% | .245 | 4.56 | 23.0% | 12.4% | 49 | -0.10 | 1.74 | 195 | 68 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2029 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.40 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.99 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.41 | 3.99 | 104 | 68 |
| Bud Norris R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 68 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2029 · 5.47 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.47 | 15.0% | 14.5% | 3.3% | .300 | 4.24 | 20.9% | 13.0% | 145 | -1.23 | 3.83 | 208 | 67 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.18 | 22.2% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .349 | 3.44 | 17.4% | 8.5% | 65 | -0.74 | 3.07 | 227 | 66 |
| Arquimedes Caminero R 2025 · 4.48 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.48 | 17.9% | 11.4% | 2.6% | .314 | 4.46 | 18.6% | 7.5% | 38 | -0.02 | 3.46 | 173 | 66 |
| Grant Black R 2025 · 5.81 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.81 | 16.3% | 13.2% | 4.4% | .352 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.49 | 215 | 66 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2029 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 65 |
| Blake Wood R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.79 | 24.5% | 10.6% | 2.6% | .307 | 3.52 | 25.3% | 16.0% | 74 | -0.27 | 3.05 | 210 | 65 |
| Taylor Williams R 2026 · 5.70 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.70 | 19.9% | 14.1% | 4.5% | .261 | 3.75 | 18.9% | 8.4% | 101 | -1.95 | 2.59 | 309 | 65 |
| Chris Leroux R 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.50 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .279 | 3.94 | 13.5% | 5.5% | 140 | -0.56 | 3.94 | 219 | 65 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2027 · 5.03 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.03 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.3% | .253 | 3.84 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.19 | 3.73 | 132 | 65 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 65 |
| Wil Browning R 2024 · 4.58 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.58 | 17.9% | 13.1% | 2.4% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.12 | 162 | 64 |
| Hector Velázquez R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.76 | 19.6% | 12.3% | 3.2% | .292 | 3.91 | 19.2% | 10.9% | 25 | -0.85 | 2.82 | 536 | 64 |
| Tim Dillard R 2028 · 3.70 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.70 | 15.9% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .330 | 3.83 | 16.7% | 8.1% | 144 | +0.13 | 3.15 | 352 | 64 |
| Noah Song R 2025 · 4.96 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.96 | 16.6% | 14.2% | 2.7% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 106 | 64 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 53 | 22.6% | 14.5% | 1.28 | 5.18 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Michael Kopech ('24) | 4 | 96 | 26.1% | 12.5% | 1.45 | 4.15 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |