Gerson Garabito

P Nashville Sounds

Age 31 RHP 6'0" / 220 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	28	MIX3 levels	32	13	86	3.77	3.57	23.3%	7.2%	1.0	K 20.3% · BB 6.7% · FIP 3.97
2025	29	MIX2 levels	13	10	40	8.62	5.67	19.0%	10.1%	-0.3	K 16.3% · BB 10.9% · FIP 6.69
2026	30	MIX2 levels	27	5	49	4.44	3.59	20.8%	9.4%	—	K 16.1% · BB 8.9% · FIP 3.81
2027PROJ	31	MLBMIL	27	27	162	4.63	4.73	19.4%	8.5%	0.3
2028PROJ37% MLB	32	MLBMIL	9	9	55	4.79	4.93	18.9%	8.8%	-0.0
2029PROJ55% MLB	33	MLBMIL	13	13	76	4.99	5.16	18.3%	9.2%	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.7 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024

FB Velo34

K%29

Whiff%18

xwOBA vs10

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsHisashi Iwakuma (age 31) · Kenshin Kawakami (age 34) · Jorge Campillo (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.63

FIP4.73

K%19.4%

BB%8.5%

K-BB%11.0%

Proj IP162

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 162 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF7070

CTRL6060

CMD4550

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3493.4

Whiff%

p1820.8%

p2919.1%

xwOBA vs

p100.388

SL (22%)

SI (17%)

CU (24%)

CH-1.3 (15%)

FB-2.5 (39%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	19	ROK MLE	AZL Royals	14	11	57	245	42	19	2	79%	4.1	11.7%	9.7%	2.0%	1.1%	4.11	3.97	—
2015	19	ROK RAW	AZL Royals	14	11	57	245	42	19	2	79%	4.1	17.1%	7.8%	9.4%	0.8%	4.11	3.08	—
2016	20	A MLE	Lexington Legends	18	18	81	355	61	35	9	100%	4.5	12.7%	11.6%	1.1%	2.5%	4.80	4.87	—
2016	20	A RAW	Lexington Legends	18	18	81	355	61	35	9	100%	4.5	17.2%	9.9%	7.3%	2.5%	4.80	4.34	—
2017	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	17	80	320	74	20	9	100%	4.7	17.4%	7.3%	10.1%	3.2%	2.92	4.31	—
2017	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	17	80	320	74	20	9	100%	4.7	23.1%	6.2%	16.9%	2.8%	2.92	3.46	—
2018	22	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	26	26	142	599	116	73	12	100%	5.5	14.9%	14.0%	0.9%	3.2%	3.16	5.40	—
2018	22	A+ RAW	Wilmington Blue Rocks	26	26	142	599	116	73	12	100%	5.5	19.4%	12.2%	7.2%	2.0%	3.16	4.10	—
2019	23	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	26	26	141	628	113	59	13	100%	5.4	14.6%	10.3%	4.2%	2.8%	3.77	4.69	—
2019	23	AA RAW	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	26	26	141	628	113	59	13	100%	5.4	18.0%	9.4%	8.6%	2.1%	3.77	3.95	—
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	12	86	377	80	40	10	48%	3.4	17.9%	11.3%	6.5%	3.1%	4.50	4.72	—
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	12	86	377	80	40	10	48%	3.4	21.2%	10.6%	10.6%	2.7%	4.50	4.15	—
2024	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	32	13	86	360	84	26	10	41%	2.7	20.3%	6.7%	13.6%	3.2%	3.77	3.97	+0.6
2024	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	32	13	86	360	84	26	10	41%	2.7	20.3%	6.7%	13.6%	3.2%	3.77	3.97	+0.6
2024	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	32	13	86	360	84	26	10	41%	2.7	23.3%	7.2%	16.1%	2.8%	3.77	3.57	+1.0
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	10	40	189	36	19	9	77%	3.1	16.3%	10.9%	5.3%	6.5%	8.62	6.69	-0.8
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	10	40	189	36	19	9	77%	3.1	16.3%	10.9%	5.3%	6.5%	8.62	6.69	-0.8
2025	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	10	40	189	36	19	9	77%	3.1	19.0%	10.1%	9.0%	4.8%	8.62	5.67	-0.3
2026	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	5	49	212	44	20	4	19%	1.8	16.1%	8.9%	7.2%	1.7%	4.44	3.81	—
2026	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	5	49	212	44	20	4	19%	1.8	16.1%	8.9%	7.2%	1.7%	4.44	3.81	—
2026	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	5	49	212	44	20	4	19%	1.8	20.8%	9.4%	11.3%	1.9%	4.44	3.59	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			21	2	34	156	30	13	5	10%	1.6	19.2%	8.3%	10.9%	3.2%	5.77	4.38	+0.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	MIL	27	27	162	684	133	58	23	100%	6.0	19.4%	8.5%	11.0%	3.3%	4.63	4.73	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	MIL	25	25	150	634	120	56	22	100%	6.0	18.9%	8.8%	10.1%	3.5%	4.79	4.93	-0.1
2029	33	MLB MLE	MIL	23	23	138	581	106	53	22	100%	6.0	18.3%	9.2%	9.1%	3.8%	4.99	5.16	-0.4
2028	32	MLB CTX	MIL	9	9	55	232	44	20	8	100%	6.1	18.9%	8.8%	10.1%	3.5%	4.79	4.93	-0.0
2029	33	MLB CTX	MIL	13	13	76	321	59	29	12	100%	5.8	18.3%	9.2%	9.1%	3.8%	4.99	5.16	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		43	24	165	710	133	63	25	56%	3.8	18.7%	8.8%	9.8%	3.6%	5.08	4.60	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		52	29	200	858	161	76	30	56%	3.9	18.7%	8.8%	9.8%	3.6%	5.08	4.60	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		198	138	761	3285	515	344	98	70%	3.8	15.7%	10.5%	5.2%	3.0%	4.08	4.73	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	36	200	863	135	90	26	70%	3.8	15.7%	10.5%	5.2%	3.0%	4.08	4.73	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gerson Garabito (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.73	19.4%	8.5%	3.3%	—	5.04	18.6%	9.6%	288	+0.31	—	—	—
Hisashi Iwakuma R 2012 · 4.28 FIP	31	SP-	4.28	19.5%	7.7%	3.4%	.277	3.45	21.5%	17.8%	528	-0.83	3.19	884	74
Kenshin Kawakami R 2009 · 3.97 FIP	34	SP-	3.97	15.7%	7.6%	2.2%	.277	4.06	15.1%	9.5%	87	+0.09	3.97	244	74
Jorge Campillo R 2008 · 3.93 FIP	29	SP-	3.93	16.3%	5.5%	2.8%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	172	71
Scott Copeland R 2019 · 5.62 FIP	31	SP-	5.62	17.1%	12.4%	4.4%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	569	68
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	67
Pete Walker R 2002 · 4.59 FIP	33	SP-	4.59	13.4%	7.7%	3.0%	.279	5.16	12.0%	2.8%	139	+0.57	4.45	327	65
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	64
Luke Hudson R 2006 · 3.81 FIP	29	SP-	3.81	14.5%	8.4%	1.6%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	235	64
Daniel McCutchen R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	32	SP-	4.30	13.9%	4.4%	3.3%	.268	4.74	10.8%	4.9%	155	+0.44	4.13	476	63
Kohei Arihara R 2022 · 4.58 FIP	29	SP-	4.58	16.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	135	63
Yohan Pino R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	31	SP-	4.13	17.8%	5.8%	3.3%	.312	5.33	15.2%	11.6%	35	+1.20	3.84	193	63
Josh A. Smith R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	31	SW	4.65	20.8%	6.4%	4.5%	.341	3.67	17.4%	8.6%	59	-0.98	2.91	598	62
Mike Wright Jr. R 2021 · 3.89 FIP	31	SP-	3.89	19.1%	8.8%	2.4%	.237	4.79	14.4%	1.1%	56	+0.90	3.76	725	62
Nate Long R 2015 · 4.67 FIP	29	SP	4.67	14.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	151	62
Jarrett Grube R 2015 · 3.75 FIP	33	SP	3.75	18.7%	4.2%	3.1%	.285	4.57	17.3%	9.6%	253	+0.82	3.75	393	61
Scott Richmond R 2009 · 5.11 FIP	29	SP	5.11	19.2%	9.5%	4.4%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	166	60
Casey Lawrence R 2018 · 3.77 FIP	30	SP-	3.77	18.1%	4.4%	3.0%	.305	4.08	20.0%	14.8%	86	+0.31	3.57	1,374	60
Shawn Haviland R 2017 · 5.00 FIP	31	SP-	5.00	16.3%	8.1%	4.1%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	283	60
Cory Riordan R 2016 · 4.24 FIP	30	SP	4.24	14.3%	5.0%	3.1%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	4.24	154	59
Jason Berken R 2015 · 4.34 FIP	31	SW	4.34	13.5%	6.6%	2.8%	.315	4.54	11.5%	3.2%	106	+0.20	3.37	468	59

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	121	18.9%	8.7%	1.35	4.86
Ray Phelps ('30-'36, 2 WAR*)	3.0	120	17.3%*	8.7%*	1.39*	4.70*
Bill Posedel ('38-'46, 1 WAR*)	3.4	136	16.9%*	8.8%*	1.33*	5.19*
Eddie Stack ('10-'14, 2 WAR*)	2.5	123	19.1%*	9.2%*	1.24*	4.60*
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	106	20.5%	9.7%	1.30	4.61
Rubby De La Rosa ('17)	2.1	105	19.6%	8.6%	1.32	4.49
Daniel Mengden ('22)	1.5	77	17.5%	7.8%	1.25	4.65