Bailey Ober

P Minnesota Twins

Age 32 RHP 6'9" / 260 lbs MLB peak 0.8 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	29	MLBMIN	31	31	179	3.98	3.65	26.9%	6.1%	2.7
2025	30	MIX2 levels	29	29	155	4.87	4.65	19.6%	4.9%	0.4	K 19.2% · BB 5.0% · FIP 4.73
2026	31	MIX3 levels	27	26	139	4.65	4.49	17.1%	6.2%	0.7	K 17.1% · BB 6.6% · FIP 4.53
2027PROJ	32	MLBMIN	24	24	147	4.61	4.87	17.8%	6.1%	0.1
2028PROJ	33	MLBMIN	22	22	135	4.93	5.15	17.0%	6.5%	-0.4
2029PROJ	34	MLBMIN	20	20	123	5.24	5.45	16.1%	7.0%	-0.8

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.8 · Next 3 projected WAR -1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs34

Whiff%15

K%15

FB Velo10

CompsMiguel González (age 32) · Mike Fiers (age 32) · Orlando Hernandez (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.61

FIP4.87

K%17.8%

BB%6.1%

K-BB%11.7%

Proj IP147

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 147 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—35

STUF5050

CTRL6060

CMD5560

K†4040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1088.0

Whiff%

p1520.3%

p1517.1%

xwOBA vs

p340.330

SL+3.0 (31%)

CH (33%)

SI (3%)

CU (1%)

FB-1.4 (35%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2017	22	ROK MLE	Elizabethton Twins	6	4	28	111	35	3	2	67%	4.7	21.4%	3.4%	18.1%	2.5%	3.21	3.10	—
2017	22	ROK RAW	Elizabethton Twins	6	4	28	111	35	3	2	67%	4.7	31.5%	2.7%	28.8%	1.8%	3.21	1.85	—
2018	23	A MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	14	14	75	294	88	9	7	100%	5.4	22.1%	3.6%	18.5%	2.7%	3.84	3.15	—
2018	23	A RAW	Cedar Rapids Kernels	14	14	75	294	88	9	7	100%	5.4	29.9%	3.1%	26.9%	2.4%	3.84	2.33	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	14	13	79	296	100	9	2	93%	5.6	26.3%	3.5%	22.8%	0.8%	0.69	1.77	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	14	13	79	296	100	9	2	93%	5.6	33.8%	3.0%	30.7%	0.7%	0.69	1.23	—
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	108	444	117	24	20	100%	4.5	25.8%	5.5%	20.3%	4.5%	3.99	4.07	+1.1
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	108	444	117	24	20	100%	4.5	26.4%	5.4%	20.9%	4.5%	3.99	4.00	+1.2
2022	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	15	15	73	289	70	14	7	100%	4.8	22.5%	4.8%	17.6%	1.8%	3.22	2.78	+1.9
2022	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	15	15	73	289	70	14	7	100%	4.8	24.2%	4.8%	19.4%	2.4%	3.22	3.00	+1.7
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	31	167	667	171	35	23	100%	5.4	25.1%	5.2%	20.0%	3.4%	3.29	3.52	+2.8
2023	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	31	167	667	171	35	23	100%	5.4	25.6%	5.2%	20.4%	3.4%	3.29	3.47	+2.9
2024	29	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	31	31	179	709	191	43	27	100%	5.8	26.9%	6.1%	20.9%	3.8%	3.98	3.67	+2.7
2024	29	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	31	31	179	709	191	43	27	100%	5.8	26.9%	6.1%	20.9%	3.8%	3.98	3.67	+2.7
2024	29	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	31	31	179	709	191	43	27	100%	5.8	26.9%	6.1%	20.9%	3.8%	3.98	3.65	+2.7
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	155	657	129	32	31	100%	5.4	19.2%	5.0%	14.3%	4.8%	4.87	4.73	+0.3
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	155	657	129	32	31	100%	5.4	19.2%	5.0%	14.3%	4.8%	4.87	4.73	+0.3
2025	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	29	155	657	129	32	31	100%	5.4	19.6%	4.9%	14.8%	4.7%	4.87	4.65	+0.4
2026	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	26	139	597	102	37	22	96%	5.2	17.1%	6.6%	10.5%	3.7%	4.65	4.53	+0.6
2026	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	26	139	597	102	37	22	96%	5.2	17.1%	6.6%	10.5%	3.7%	4.65	4.53	+0.6
2026	31	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	26	139	597	102	37	22	96%	5.2	17.1%	6.2%	10.9%	3.7%	4.65	4.49	+0.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			140	139	749	3077	700	170	124	99%	5.3	22.7%	5.5%	17.2%	4.0%	4.15	4.06	+7.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	32	MLB	MIN	24	24	147	621	111	38	24	100%	6.1	17.8%	6.1%	11.7%	3.9%	4.61	4.87	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	MIN	22	22	135	570	97	37	24	100%	6.1	17.0%	6.5%	10.4%	4.1%	4.93	5.15	-0.4
2029	34	MLB MLE	MIN	20	20	123	519	83	37	23	100%	6.1	16.1%	7.0%	9.0%	4.4%	5.24	5.45	-0.8
2028	33	MLB CTX	MIN	22	22	135	570	97	37	24	100%	6.1	17.0%	6.5%	10.4%	4.1%	4.93	5.15	-0.4
2029	34	MLB CTX	MIN	20	20	123	519	83	37	23	100%	6.2	16.1%	7.0%	9.0%	4.4%	5.24	5.45	-0.8
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		183	182	1007	4166	880	244	171	99%	5.5	21.1%	5.9%	15.3%	4.1%	4.39	4.31	+7.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	828	175	48	34	99%	5.5	21.1%	5.9%	15.3%	4.1%	4.39	4.31	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		191	187	1003	4064	933	212	142	98%	5.3	23.0%	5.2%	17.7%	3.5%	3.75	3.73	+6.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		38	37	200	810	186	42	28	98%	5.3	23.0%	5.2%	17.7%	3.5%	3.75	3.73	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bailey Ober (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.87	17.8%	6.1%	3.9%	—	5.29	16.5%	9.8%	258	+0.42	—	—	—
Miguel González R 2016 · 3.72 FIP	32	SP	3.72	17.8%	5.8%	2.5%	.295	4.71	14.1%	6.3%	168	+0.99	3.72	905	79
Mike Fiers R 2017 · 5.12 FIP	32	SP	5.12	21.8%	9.2%	4.9%	.290	4.88	17.5%	11.5%	416	-0.24	2.83	1,140	72
Orlando Hernandez R 2002 · 3.78 FIP	32	SP	3.78	18.6%	5.6%	2.8%	.258	4.26	18.9%	9.8%	213	+0.48	3.35	1,315	65
Elmer Dessens R 2003 · 4.25 FIP	32	SP	4.25	14.5%	6.5%	2.8%	.319	3.98	15.0%	9.6%	248	-0.27	3.55	1,167	64
Tim Adleman R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	31	SP	4.30	22.8%	7.8%	3.9%	.266	4.71	18.5%	11.1%	90	+0.41	3.63	605	63
Rolando Arrojo R 2000 · 4.47 FIP	32	SP	4.47	16.1%	8.0%	3.1%	.291	3.68	16.4%	9.2%	185	-0.79	3.50	700	63
Merrill Kelly R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	32	SP	4.00	19.5%	5.7%	3.3%	.297	3.80	23.4%	15.3%	452	-0.20	3.60	1,170	62
Jeremy Guthrie R 2011 · 4.18 FIP	32	SP	4.18	14.6%	6.9%	2.6%	.278	4.68	13.2%	7.1%	596	+0.50	4.08	1,834	59
Ryan Franklin R 2005 · 4.89 FIP	32	SP	4.89	11.2%	7.0%	3.4%	.282	4.36	13.7%	7.8%	236	-0.53	3.12	1,201	57
Miles Mikolas R 2021 · 4.27 FIP	32	SP	4.27	16.4%	5.5%	3.4%	.269	4.09	17.3%	13.0%	575	-0.18	3.13	1,386	52
Cory Lidle R 2004 · 4.34 FIP	32	SP	4.34	13.8%	6.1%	3.0%	.281	4.16	16.3%	10.6%	355	-0.18	3.48	1,318	52
Odrisamer Despaigne R 2019 · 3.77 FIP	32	SP	3.77	19.4%	8.9%	2.2%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	689	51
Steve Parris R 2000 · 4.84 FIP	32	SP	4.84	13.6%	7.7%	3.5%	.304	5.49	10.9%	3.0%	225	+0.65	3.60	753	51
Chuck Smith R 2001 · 3.99 FIP	31	SP	3.99	18.4%	8.1%	2.6%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	211	49
Jeremy Hefner R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	30	SP	4.64	16.8%	9.1%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	322	48
Matt Shoemaker R 2019 · 3.80 FIP	32	SP	3.80	22.2%	8.3%	2.8%	.181	5.06	18.8%	11.1%	159	+1.26	3.12	728	48
Josh Roenicke R 2015 · 4.85 FIP	32	SP	4.85	10.9%	7.0%	3.3%	.353	3.35	19.2%	11.5%	160	-1.50	3.25	500	47
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	46
Jarrett Grube R 2015 · 3.75 FIP	33	SP	3.75	18.7%	4.2%	3.1%	.285	4.57	17.3%	9.6%	253	+0.82	3.75	393	46
Cory Riordan R 2016 · 4.24 FIP	30	SP	4.24	14.3%	5.0%	3.1%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	4.24	154	45

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.8	128	20.7%	5.9%	1.57	4.41
George Stone ('67-'75, 5 WAR*)	5.1	128	17.8%*	6.0%*	1.58*	4.42*
Anthony DeSclafani ('25)	4.9	109	20.9%	6.4%	1.34	4.24
Craig Swan ('73-'84, 10 WAR*)	6.2	124	18.8%*	7.1%*	1.36*	4.46*
Mike Fiers ('21)	5.8	128	20.5%	7.0%	1.44	4.07
Jerad Eickhoff ('22)	2.3	116	20.7%	6.9%	1.57	4.50
Bob Muncrief ('37-'51, 14 WAR*)	7.0	156	18.4%*	6.0%*	1.58*	4.24*