Keynan Middleton

P Oklahoma City Comets

Age 33 RHP 6'3" / 230 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	29	MIX2 levels	54	54	3.19	3.94	30.0%	11.2%	0.4	K 30.2% · BB 10.8% · FIP 3.87
2024	30	AASTL	5	4	2.25	9.85	11.1%	33.3%	—	K 11.1% · BB 33.3% · FIP 9.43
2026	32	AAALAD	29	30	4.45	4.22	17.4%	16.7%	—	K 15.0% · BB 15.0% · FIP 4.17
2027PROJ	33	MLBLAD	139	146	5.14	5.06	19.7%	13.9%	-0.8
2028PROJ6% MLB	34	MLBLAD	7	7	5.27	5.36	18.8%	14.4%	-0.1
2029PROJ1% MLB	35	MLBLAD	1	1	5.53	5.70	17.8%	15.0%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.4 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2023

Whiff%90

K%90

FB Velo64

xwOBA vs64

CompsKeiichi Yabu (age 36) · Ivan Maldonado (age 35) · Jean Machi (age 33)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118109vR 101

ERA5.14

FIP5.06

K%19.7%

BB%13.9%

K-BB%5.7%

Proj IP146

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 146 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF7070

CTRL4040

CMD5050

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6495.5

Whiff%

p9036.0%

p9030.2%

xwOBA vs

p640.298

CH+3.8

FB+3.2

SL-2.8

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	21	A MLE	Burlington Bees	26	26	126	549	88	47	15	100%	4.8	11.9%	10.1%	1.8%	2.5%	5.30	4.75	—
2015	21	A RAW	Burlington Bees	26	26	126	549	88	47	15	100%	4.8	16.0%	8.6%	7.5%	2.7%	5.30	4.37	—
2016	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	46	0	66	271	88	28	9	0%	1.4	25.8%	11.7%	14.2%	4.5%	3.41	4.89	—
2016	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	46	0	66	271	88	28	9	0%	1.4	32.5%	10.3%	22.1%	3.3%	3.41	3.48	—
2017	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	74	0	71	298	71	20	11	0%	1.0	23.5%	6.8%	16.7%	3.6%	3.68	3.96	+0.5
2017	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	74	0	71	298	71	20	11	0%	1.0	23.8%	6.7%	17.1%	3.7%	3.68	3.96	+0.5
2018	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	1	19	76	18	10	1	6%	1.1	22.5%	11.3%	11.3%	1.4%	1.93	3.38	+0.3
2018	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	1	19	76	18	10	1	6%	1.1	23.7%	13.2%	10.5%	1.3%	1.93	3.48	+0.2
2019	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	21	3	17	72	22	13	0	14%	0.8	30.6%	18.1%	12.5%	0.0%	1.08	2.81	+0.3
2019	25	MIX RAW	4 levels	21	3	17	72	22	13	0	14%	0.8	30.6%	18.1%	12.5%	0.0%	1.08	2.80	+0.3
2020	26	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	13	0	12	53	11	6	2	0%	0.9	20.8%	11.3%	9.4%	3.7%	5.25	4.81	-0.0
2020	26	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	13	0	12	53	11	6	2	0%	0.9	20.8%	11.3%	9.4%	3.8%	5.25	4.93	-0.1
2021	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	2	39	172	37	20	3	5%	1.0	17.1%	12.9%	4.3%	1.5%	4.42	4.09	+0.2
2021	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	2	39	172	37	20	3	5%	1.0	21.5%	11.6%	9.9%	1.7%	4.42	3.75	+0.4
2022	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	36	1	35	139	41	10	6	3%	1.0	26.8%	7.7%	19.1%	4.8%	3.60	4.43	+0.1
2022	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	36	1	35	139	41	10	6	3%	1.0	29.5%	7.2%	22.3%	4.3%	3.60	3.84	+0.3
2023	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	0	54	223	67	25	8	0%	1.0	30.2%	10.8%	19.3%	3.5%	3.19	3.87	+0.4
2023	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	54	0	54	223	67	25	8	0%	1.0	30.0%	11.2%	18.8%	3.6%	3.19	3.94	+0.4
2024	30	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	5	0	4	18	2	6	1	0%	0.8	11.1%	33.3%	-22.2%	5.6%	2.25	9.43	—
2024	30	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	5	0	4	18	2	6	1	0%	0.8	11.1%	33.3%	-22.2%	5.6%	2.25	9.43	—
2024	30	AA RAW	Springfield Cardinals	5	0	4	18	2	6	1	0%	0.8	11.1%	33.3%	-22.2%	5.6%	2.25	9.85	—
2026	32	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Comets	29	0	30	138	24	23	1	0%	1.0	15.0%	15.0%	-0.0%	0.8%	4.45	4.17	—
2026	32	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Comets	29	0	30	138	24	23	1	0%	1.0	15.0%	15.0%	-0.0%	0.8%	4.45	4.17	—
2026	32	AAA RAW	Oklahoma City Comets	29	0	30	138	24	23	1	0%	1.0	17.4%	16.7%	0.7%	0.7%	4.45	4.22	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			205	1	194	824	199	81	29	0%	0.9	24.2%	9.8%	14.3%	3.5%	3.84	4.24	+0.7
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	33	MLB	LAD	139	0	146	616	121	86	17	0%	1.1	19.7%	13.9%	5.7%	2.7%	5.14	5.06	-0.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	34	MLB MLE	LAD	126	0	133	560	105	81	17	0%	1.1	18.8%	14.4%	4.3%	3.0%	5.27	5.36	-1.2
2029	35	MLB MLE	LAD	113	0	119	502	89	75	17	0%	1.1	17.8%	15.0%	2.8%	3.3%	5.53	5.70	-1.5
2028	34	MLB CTX	LAD	7	0	7	30	6	4	1	0%	1.0	18.8%	14.4%	4.3%	3.0%	5.27	5.36	-0.1
2029	35	MLB CTX	LAD	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	17.8%	15.0%	2.8%	3.3%	5.53	5.70	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		213	1	203	860	206	86	30	0%	1.0	23.9%	10.0%	13.9%	3.5%	3.91	4.27	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		210	1	200	848	203	85	30	0%	1.0	23.9%	10.0%	13.9%	3.5%	3.91	4.27	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		360	33	472	2009	412	218	59	9%	1.3	20.5%	10.9%	9.6%	2.9%	3.99	4.36	-2.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		153	14	200	852	175	93	25	9%	1.3	20.5%	10.9%	9.6%	2.9%	3.99	4.36	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Keynan Middleton (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.06	19.7%	13.9%	2.7%	—	5.52	18.3%	3.6%	252	+0.46	—	—	—
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	63
Ivan Maldonado R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	35	SW	4.60	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.269	5.41	6.4%	-3.3%	104	+0.81	4.60	172	62
Jean Machi R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	33	SU	4.56	16.3%	8.6%	3.2%	.276	4.24	18.5%	11.9%	128	-0.32	2.16	306	60
Felipe Arredondo R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	32	SU	4.65	16.2%	7.1%	3.7%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	337	60
Austin Adams R 2019 · 5.80 FIP	32	SU	5.80	20.8%	10.6%	5.7%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	162	58
Chris Jakubauskas R 2011 · 4.42 FIP	32	SW	4.42	15.7%	7.9%	3.0%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	165	58
Jared Burton R 2014 · 3.90 FIP	33	SU	3.90	16.9%	8.1%	2.2%	.263	3.99	25.1%	15.7%	14	+0.09	3.09	367	58
Jake Sanchez R 2023 · 4.70 FIP	33	SU	4.70	20.3%	10.6%	3.6%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	1.86	361	57
Tyler Sturdevant R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	31	SU	4.48	13.5%	6.7%	3.0%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	149	56
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	56
Fernando Villalobos R 2017 · 4.70 FIP	32	SU	4.70	10.6%	8.0%	2.7%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	152	55
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	55
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	55
Angel Castro R 2016 · 5.42 FIP	33	SW	5.42	12.3%	9.1%	4.0%	.304	3.51	14.5%	7.1%	139	-1.91	3.51	292	55
Joe Roa R 2004 · 4.36 FIP	32	SU	4.36	14.8%	7.5%	2.8%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.28	258	54
Luis Angel Daniel R 2017 · 4.16 FIP	32	SU	4.16	9.8%	9.5%	1.2%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	4.16	156	54
Giovanni Carrara R 2001 · 4.06 FIP	33	SU	4.06	20.1%	6.0%	3.5%	.249	4.28	15.7%	7.9%	173	+0.22	2.50	462	53
Jumbo Diaz R 2017 · 4.17 FIP	33	SU	4.17	20.0%	9.7%	2.8%	.302	2.90	24.2%	15.4%	98	-1.27	2.80	319	53
Angel Sánchez R 2023 · 4.90 FIP	33	SW	4.90	19.0%	10.5%	3.8%	.333	3.77	11.8%	6.8%	27	-1.13	3.77	284	53
Mike Buddie R 2002 · 4.26 FIP	31	SU	4.26	15.1%	7.6%	2.7%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	123	53

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.0	99	20.5%	13.1%	1.22	4.82
Robinson Tejeda ('11)	2.2	74	19.1%	12.6%	0.96	4.42
Rob Tejeda ('05-'11, 3 WAR*)	2.2	74	21.8%*	12.6%*	1.00*	4.23*
Jim Duffalo ('61-'65, 1 WAR*)	1.5	60	21.2%*	13.0%*	1.07*	4.02*
Tim Birtsas ('85-'90, -0 WAR*)	1.6	82	21.4%*	11.7%*	1.31*	4.63*
Bob Gibson ('83-'87, -0 WAR*)	1.3	67	20.4%*	14.0%*	1.14*	4.52*
Jay Witasick ('07)	3.7	73	19.6%	11.0%	1.19	4.64