Kyle McGowin

P Iowa Cubs

Age 35 RHP 6'3" / 202 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2021	29	MIX2 levels	36	0	40	3.40	3.68	27.1%	9.6%	0.4	K 27.3% · BB 10.2% · FIP 4.22
2023	31	AAAHOU	16	9	62	7.36	5.55	21.1%	10.5%	—	K 18.1% · BB 9.5% · FIP 6.20
2024	32	MIX2 levels	15	15	75	4.66	3.78	22.4%	8.1%	—	K 18.8% · BB 7.5% · FIP 4.10
2027PROJ	35	MLBCHC	27	27	165	4.26	4.35	22.1%	8.2%	1.1
2028PROJ1% MLB	36	MLBCHC	1	1	1	4.52	4.71	21.1%	8.7%	0.0
2029PROJ0% MLB	37	MLBCHC	—	—	0	4.84	5.07	20.0%	9.3%	—

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.4 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2021

xwOBA vs83

K%78

Whiff%66

FB Velo10

CompsChris Smith (age 35) · Jesse Estrada (age 35) · Yasutomo Kubo (age 38)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.26

FIP4.35

K%22.1%

BB%8.2%

K-BB%13.9%

Proj IP165

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 165 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5050

CTRL5555

CMD6060

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.2

Whiff%

p6627.8%

p7827.3%

xwOBA vs

p830.280

SL+1.8

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	23	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	27	27	154	646	125	50	16	100%	5.7	15.7%	8.5%	7.2%	2.9%	4.38	4.45	—
2015	23	AA RAW	Arkansas Travelers	27	27	154	646	125	50	16	100%	5.7	19.3%	7.7%	11.6%	2.5%	4.38	3.80	—
2016	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	142	629	130	54	20	100%	5.3	17.8%	9.1%	8.7%	3.5%	5.83	4.66	—
2016	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	142	629	130	54	20	100%	5.3	20.7%	8.6%	12.1%	3.2%	5.83	4.24	—
2017	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	19	98	451	75	40	16	100%	5.2	13.6%	9.5%	4.1%	4.5%	5.95	5.60	—
2017	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	19	98	451	75	40	16	100%	5.2	16.6%	8.9%	7.8%	3.5%	5.95	4.91	—
2018	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	28	24	149	585	160	36	14	86%	5.3	22.7%	6.0%	16.7%	2.3%	2.95	3.22	+3.1
2018	26	MIX RAW	4 levels	28	24	149	585	160	36	14	86%	5.3	27.4%	6.2%	21.2%	2.4%	2.95	2.90	+3.8
2019	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	18	109	456	122	29	17	75%	4.5	23.5%	6.7%	16.7%	4.0%	4.38	4.18	+0.9
2019	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	18	109	456	122	29	17	75%	4.5	26.8%	6.4%	20.4%	3.7%	4.38	3.69	+1.6
2020	28	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	9	0	11	47	16	4	2	0%	1.2	34.0%	8.5%	25.5%	4.3%	4.91	3.64	+0.1
2020	28	MLB RAW	Washington Nationals	9	0	11	47	16	4	2	0%	1.2	34.0%	8.5%	25.5%	4.3%	4.91	3.65	+0.1
2021	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	0	40	166	45	16	5	0%	1.1	27.3%	10.2%	17.2%	3.9%	3.40	4.22	+0.2
2021	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	0	40	166	45	16	5	0%	1.1	27.1%	9.6%	17.5%	3.0%	3.40	3.68	+0.4
2023	31	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	16	9	62	275	58	29	14	56%	3.9	18.1%	9.5%	8.6%	6.2%	7.36	6.20	—
2023	31	AAA RAW	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	16	9	62	275	58	29	14	56%	3.9	21.1%	10.5%	10.5%	5.1%	7.36	5.55	—
2024	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	15	75	321	72	26	9	100%	5.0	18.8%	7.5%	11.2%	3.0%	4.66	4.10	—
2024	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	15	75	321	72	26	9	100%	5.0	18.8%	7.5%	11.2%	3.0%	4.66	4.10	—
2024	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	15	75	321	72	26	9	100%	5.0	22.4%	8.1%	14.3%	2.8%	4.66	3.78	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			48	2	65	285	77	26	16	4%	1.3	27.0%	9.1%	17.9%	5.6%	5.98	5.14	-0.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	35	MLB	CHC	27	27	165	697	154	57	22	100%	6.1	22.1%	8.2%	13.9%	3.1%	4.26	4.35	+1.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	36	MLB MLE	CHC	24	24	146	616	130	54	21	100%	6.1	21.1%	8.7%	12.4%	3.5%	4.52	4.71	+0.3
2029	37	MLB MLE	CHC	21	21	127	538	108	50	21	100%	6.1	20.0%	9.3%	10.8%	3.8%	4.84	5.07	-0.2
2028	36	MLB CTX	CHC	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	21.1%	8.7%	12.4%	3.5%	4.52	4.71	+0.0
2029	37	MLB CTX	CHC	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.0%	9.3%	10.8%	3.8%	4.84	5.07	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		48	2	66	291	78	27	16	4%	1.4	26.9%	9.1%	17.8%	5.6%	5.95	5.04	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		146	7	200	881	236	82	48	5%	1.4	26.9%	9.1%	17.8%	5.6%	5.95	5.04	-1.1
Career	—	MLE		201	139	841	3576	686	292	128	69%	4.2	19.2%	8.2%	11.0%	3.6%	4.76	4.48	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	33	200	850	163	69	30	69%	4.2	19.2%	8.2%	11.0%	3.6%	4.76	4.48	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kyle McGowin (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.35	22.1%	8.2%	3.1%	—	4.88	20.6%	11.6%	273	+0.53	—	—	—
Chris Smith R 2016 · 3.85 FIP	35	SP-	3.85	20.8%	8.9%	2.5%	.279	5.08	15.6%	8.1%	130	+1.23	3.79	477	62
Jesse Estrada R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	35	SP-	4.34	14.4%	6.6%	2.9%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	257	58
Yasutomo Kubo R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	38	SP	3.98	20.4%	4.7%	3.6%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	152	57
Jarrett Grube R 2017 · 4.41 FIP	35	SP	4.41	15.8%	8.1%	3.0%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	3.75	393	57
Frankie De La Cruz R 2019 · 4.38 FIP	35	SP-	4.38	16.2%	8.0%	3.0%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	2.87	262	54
David Buchanan R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	35	SP-	4.26	14.7%	6.5%	2.9%	.337	5.56	12.2%	4.1%	29	+1.30	3.88	560	54
Jorge Martinez R 2019 · 3.71 FIP	34	SP	3.71	16.3%	5.7%	2.3%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	214	54
Yoanner Negrin R 2019 · 3.87 FIP	35	SP	3.87	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.15	485	52
Leo Medrano R 2016 · 4.34 FIP	33	SP	4.34	11.0%	7.3%	2.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	222	49
Kenshin Kawakami R 2010 · 4.06 FIP	35	SP	4.06	15.1%	5.6%	2.8%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	3.97	244	48
Jose Oyervides R 2017 · 5.38 FIP	35	SP	5.38	18.0%	6.3%	5.5%	.254	5.66	16.3%	5.1%	115	+0.28	3.01	407	48
Michael Nix R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	33	SP	4.60	11.9%	11.6%	1.9%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	234	43
Pablo Ortega R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	38	SP	4.52	8.6%	7.3%	2.2%	.291	4.24	11.5%	6.0%	236	-0.28	4.01	375	42
Angel Castro R 2017 · 3.51 FIP	34	SP	3.51	14.5%	7.4%	1.3%	.332	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	292	42
Logan Duran R 2016 · 3.77 FIP	34	SP	3.77	15.3%	8.9%	1.5%	.299	3.66	15.5%	6.6%	29	-0.11	3.42	187	42
Steve Sparks R 2000 · 3.78 FIP	35	SP-	3.78	11.9%	6.5%	1.6%	.283	4.37	11.6%	4.7%	528	+0.59	3.78	1,320	40
Salvador Valdez R 2017 · 3.87 FIP	34	SP	3.87	9.4%	6.1%	1.4%	.328	4.30	17.1%	8.9%	38	+0.43	3.60	326	40
J.D. Martin R 2018 · 4.94 FIP	35	SP	4.94	10.4%	11.9%	2.2%	.284	5.89	13.9%	1.1%	125	+0.95	4.79	414	40
Jonathan Castellanos R 2017 · 4.91 FIP	35	SP	4.91	8.4%	9.2%	2.5%	.314	5.24	11.0%	2.0%	67	+0.33	3.40	394	40
Josh Lowey R 2019 · 3.45 FIP	34	SP	3.45	22.4%	6.8%	2.5%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	2.22	426	39

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	126	21.9%	8.8%	1.44	4.70
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	106	20.5%	9.7%	1.30	4.61
Hy Vandenberg ('35-'45, -1 WAR*)	1.5	97	22.1%*	10.1%*	1.18*	4.99*
Rubby De La Rosa ('17)	2.1	105	19.6%	8.6%	1.32	4.49
Andrew Suárez ('23)	1.2	77	18.0%	8.1%	1.48	4.96
Art Ceccarelli ('55-'60, -2 WAR*)	1.5	102	19.2%*	9.8%*	1.71*	5.41*
Chris Knapp ('75-'80, -1 WAR*)	3.0	121	21.3%*	9.3%*	1.41*	5.48*