Trevor Gott

P El Paso Chihuahuas

Age 34 RHP 5'11" / 185 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	30	MIX2 levels	66	0	61	4.01	2.69	23.7%	6.3%	1.4	K 23.8% · BB 6.1% · FIP 2.71
2025	32	MIX2 levels	24	0	21	7.40	5.57	19.2%	8.1%	—	K 15.0% · BB 7.8% · FIP 5.55
2026	33	AAASD	28	1	34	4.24	4.31	18.9%	10.1%	—	K 16.3% · BB 9.1% · FIP 4.51
2027PROJ	34	MLBSD	5	0	5	4.84	4.85	17.2%	8.8%	-0.0
2028PROJ6% MLB	35	MLBSD	2	0	2	5.05	5.19	16.3%	9.3%	-0.0
2029PROJMLE	36	MLBSD	—	—	0	5.35	5.55	15.3%	9.9%	—

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.4 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2023

xwOBA vs73

K%59

FB Velo33

CompsKeiichi Yabu (age 36) · Juan Sandoval (age 34) · Hector Navarro (age 35)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113105vR 97

ERA4.84

FIP4.85

K%17.2%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%8.5%

Proj IP53

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 53 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD5050

K†4040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3393.3

Whiff%

p3523.2%

p5923.8%

xwOBA vs

p730.290

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	73	0	76	320	57	25	2	0%	1.0	15.3%	7.3%	8.0%	0.7%	2.74	3.12	+1.3
2015	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	73	0	76	320	57	25	2	0%	1.0	17.8%	7.8%	10.0%	0.6%	2.74	2.93	+1.5
2016	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	43	0	47	212	39	14	2	0%	1.1	15.7%	7.2%	8.4%	1.3%	4.18	3.40	+0.6
2016	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	43	0	47	212	39	14	2	0%	1.1	18.4%	6.6%	11.8%	0.9%	4.18	2.89	+0.9
2017	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	0	40	187	38	14	3	0%	1.2	18.8%	7.7%	11.1%	1.4%	5.80	3.24	+0.6
2017	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	0	40	187	38	14	3	0%	1.2	20.3%	7.5%	12.8%	1.6%	5.80	3.22	+0.6
2018	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	48	204	53	16	5	0%	1.0	23.7%	8.0%	15.7%	2.4%	4.47	3.43	+0.6
2018	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	0	48	204	53	16	5	0%	1.0	26.0%	7.8%	18.1%	2.5%	4.47	3.24	+0.8
2019	26	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	50	0	53	214	57	17	4	0%	1.1	26.6%	7.9%	18.7%	2.0%	4.44	2.97	+1.0
2019	26	MLB RAW	San Francisco Giants	50	0	53	214	57	17	4	0%	1.1	26.6%	7.9%	18.7%	1.9%	4.44	2.89	+1.0
2020	27	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	15	0	12	57	8	8	7	0%	0.8	14.0%	14.0%	0.0%	13.3%	10.03	10.98	-0.9
2020	27	MLB RAW	San Francisco Giants	15	0	12	57	8	8	7	0%	0.8	14.0%	14.0%	0.0%	12.3%	10.03	11.59	-1.0
2021	28	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	43	1	42	171	53	15	4	2%	1.0	27.3%	9.2%	18.1%	2.6%	4.10	3.38	—
2021	28	AAA RAW	Sacramento River Cats	43	1	42	171	53	15	4	2%	1.0	31.0%	8.8%	22.2%	2.3%	4.10	2.88	—
2022	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	50	0	51	209	52	13	8	0%	1.0	23.7%	6.5%	17.2%	4.1%	4.21	4.17	+0.2
2022	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	50	0	51	209	52	13	8	0%	1.0	24.9%	6.2%	18.7%	3.8%	4.21	3.86	+0.4
2023	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	66	0	61	270	64	17	4	0%	0.9	23.8%	6.1%	17.6%	1.5%	4.01	2.71	+1.3
2023	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	66	0	61	270	64	17	4	0%	0.9	23.7%	6.3%	17.4%	1.5%	4.01	2.69	+1.4
2025	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	0	21	99	19	8	5	0%	0.9	15.0%	7.8%	7.1%	5.0%	7.40	5.55	—
2025	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	0	21	99	19	8	5	0%	0.9	15.0%	7.8%	7.1%	5.0%	7.40	5.55	—
2025	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	0	21	99	19	8	5	0%	0.9	19.2%	8.1%	11.1%	5.1%	7.40	5.57	—
2026	33	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	28	1	34	148	28	15	4	4%	1.2	16.3%	9.1%	7.1%	3.0%	4.24	4.51	—
2026	33	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	28	1	34	148	28	15	4	4%	1.2	16.3%	9.1%	7.1%	3.0%	4.24	4.51	—
2026	33	AAA RAW	El Paso Chihuahuas	28	1	34	148	28	15	4	4%	1.2	18.9%	10.1%	8.8%	2.7%	4.24	4.31	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			255	0	244	1055	222	79	30	0%	1.0	21.0%	7.5%	13.6%	2.8%	4.65	3.85	+2.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	34	MLB	SD	5	0	5	21	4	2	1	0%	1.0	17.2%	8.8%	8.5%	3.1%	4.84	4.85	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	35	MLB MLE	SD	34	0	35	149	24	14	5	0%	1.0	16.3%	9.3%	7.0%	3.5%	5.05	5.19	-0.3
2029	36	MLB MLE	SD	25	0	26	110	17	11	4	0%	1.0	15.3%	9.9%	5.4%	3.8%	5.35	5.55	-0.3
2028	35	MLB CTX	SD	2	0	2	8	1	1	0	0%	1.0	16.3%	9.3%	7.0%	3.5%	5.05	5.19	-0.0
2029	36	MLB CTX	SD	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	15.3%	9.9%	5.4%	3.8%	5.35	5.55	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		257	0	246	1063	223	80	30	0%	1.0	21.0%	7.5%	13.5%	2.8%	4.66	3.84	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		209	0	200	866	182	65	24	0%	1.0	21.0%	7.5%	13.5%	2.8%	4.66	3.84	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		474	2	484	2091	430	162	51	0%	1.0	20.6%	7.7%	12.8%	2.4%	4.40	3.68	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		196	1	200	863	177	67	21	0%	1.0	20.6%	7.7%	12.8%	2.4%	4.40	3.68	+0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 34 IPFIP 4.27 → 4.51 (+0.24)K% 18.9% → 16.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.92%	—	×0.860	16.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.14%	—	×0.900	9.12%
HR / BF /BF	2.70%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.97%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.27 → 4.51, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAATacoma Rainiers · 19 IPFIP 5.72 → 5.55 (−0.16)K% 17.4% → 15.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.39%	—	×0.860	14.96%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.70%	—	×0.900	7.83%
HR / BF /BF	5.43%	÷1.204	×1.100	4.96%

Result: FIP 5.72 → 5.55, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAASacramento River Cats · 42 IPFIP 2.88 → 3.38 (+0.51)K% 31.0% → 27.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.99%	—	×0.880	27.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.77%	—	×1.050	9.21%
HR / BF /BF	2.34%	÷0.995	×1.100	2.59%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 99).

Result: FIP 2.88 → 3.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAASyracuse Chiefs · 29 IPFIP 1.62 → 1.94 (+0.32)K% 31.7% → 27.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.67%	—	×0.880	27.87%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.83%	—	×1.050	6.13%
HR / BF /BF	0.83%	÷1.205	×1.100	0.76%

Result: FIP 1.62 → 1.94, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAASyracuse Chiefs · 37 IPFIP 2.89 → 3.24 (+0.34)K% 21.3% → 18.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.34%	—	×0.880	18.78%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.32%	—	×1.050	7.68%
HR / BF /BF	1.22%	÷0.980	×1.100	1.37%

Result: FIP 2.89 → 3.24, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAASyracuse Chiefs · 39 IPFIP 3.10 → 3.40 (+0.30)K% 17.8% → 15.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.82%	—	×0.880	15.68%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.90%	—	×1.050	7.24%
HR / BF /BF	1.15%	÷0.978	×1.100	1.29%

Result: FIP 3.10 → 3.40, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAArkansas Travelers · 20 IPFIP 2.11 → 2.62 (+0.51)K% 24.7% → 20.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.69%	—	×0.810	20.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.64%	—	×1.100	9.51%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.022	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 104).

Result: FIP 2.11 → 2.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAASalt Lake Bees · 8 IPFIP 2.53 → 2.89 (+0.36)K% 27.0% → 23.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.03%	—	×0.880	23.78%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.51%	—	×1.050	14.19%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.980	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.53 → 2.89, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Trevor Gott (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.85	17.2%	8.8%	3.1%	—	5.34	15.9%	6.3%	61	+0.49	—	—	—
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	78
Juan Sandoval R 2015 · 3.82 FIP	34	SU	3.82	15.4%	6.0%	2.3%	.294	3.33	17.4%	8.8%	116	-0.49	3.24	225	77
Hector Navarro R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	35	SU	4.35	15.0%	5.4%	3.3%	.281	3.00	15.2%	9.0%	81	-1.35	2.30	126	76
Diego Moreno R 2021 · 4.75 FIP	34	SU	4.75	18.6%	9.4%	3.7%	.232	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	187	74
Mark Serrano R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	33	SU	5.25	20.2%	7.9%	5.2%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	120	72
Fernando Villalobos R 2017 · 4.70 FIP	32	SU	4.70	10.6%	8.0%	2.7%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	152	72
Leo Rosales R 2015 · 3.99 FIP	34	SU	3.99	18.1%	10.8%	1.9%	.261	4.24	7.8%	-0.4%	22	+0.25	3.85	130	72
Willie Eyre R 2011 · 4.18 FIP	33	SU	4.18	13.9%	6.9%	2.5%	.182	—	—	—	—	—	2.87	164	71
Jean Machi R 2016 · 4.36 FIP	34	SU	4.36	18.3%	6.6%	3.6%	.282	4.12	18.6%	12.0%	67	-0.24	2.16	306	70
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	70
Ivan Maldonado R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	35	SW	4.60	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.269	5.41	6.4%	-3.3%	104	+0.81	4.60	172	69
Giovanni Carrara R 2002 · 4.78 FIP	34	SU	4.78	14.5%	7.2%	3.6%	.239	3.83	17.1%	7.9%	158	-0.95	2.50	462	69
Raul Barron R 2019 · 5.92 FIP	33	SU	5.92	11.4%	8.9%	4.8%	.265	—	—	—	—	—	3.04	201	69
Josh Lueke R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	34	SU	4.11	20.4%	6.4%	3.5%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	191	69
Jose Pina R 2019 · 5.28 FIP	33	SU	5.28	14.6%	6.8%	4.7%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	424	67
Carlos Fisher R 2017 · 3.91 FIP	34	SU	3.91	18.1%	12.9%	1.3%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	245	67
Joe Nelson R 2009 · 5.35 FIP	34	SU	5.35	19.8%	14.3%	3.9%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	139	66
Matt Miller R 2006 · 4.98 FIP	34	SU	4.98	18.5%	13.8%	3.1%	.214	—	—	—	—	—	2.13	101	66
Luis Angel Daniel R 2017 · 4.16 FIP	32	SU	4.16	9.8%	9.5%	1.2%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	4.16	156	66
Austin Adams R 2019 · 5.80 FIP	32	SU	5.80	20.8%	10.6%	5.7%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	162	66

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.8	51	19.6%	8.6%	1.17	4.77
J. C. Gutierrez ('07-'14, -0 WAR*)	1.4	57	19.8%*	8.5%*	1.19*	4.72*
Jacob Barnes ('25)	1.7	48	22.0%	9.2%	1.15	4.79
Juan Gutierrez ('14)	1.4	57	19.4%	8.4%	1.04	4.49
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*